BACKGROUND
The
remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty
crime among the town’s youth.
Part
of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities
the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the
threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.
This
complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can
change this cycle.
While
there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth
being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation
MODEL EXPLAINED
Simulation of this
model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.
Total Youth
Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.
This
model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of
Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer
pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).
At Time
Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.
STOCKS
- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.
i.e.
not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs
- Community Engagement Programs = Number of
Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.
Community Engagement Programs consist of
multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events
- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing
Petty Crimes.
- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in
Juvenile Detention.
- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of
being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.
- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth
that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.
ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES
- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of
Money being Invested into Community Development
i.e.
15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund
- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in
Bourke
i.e.
15 = 15 Active Police Officers
- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment
Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)
i.e.
0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear
to be corrupt)
UN-ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES
- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth
that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to
commit crimes.
Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5%
percent.
Assumptions:
0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke
already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly
unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.
Positive Influences
at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for
any reliable intervention.
- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth
that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.
Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.
Assumptions:
5% of the juvenile
population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to
commit petty crimes.
DYNAMIC VARIABLES
- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel
Alienated/have no sense of community.
Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.
Assumptions:
Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes
in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.
Before taking into
account those people that are in the Community
Development Program and Upstanding
Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be
Alienated.
i.e. when Upstanding
Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation =
90%
FLOWS
- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)
For every $1000
invested into Community Development Resource $,
the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.
The rate of flow
from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance
of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50
children coming to Community Engagement Programs
we have a percentage increase in Community
Involvement rate.
- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom
& Recklessness variable.
- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)
Flow
rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of
Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police
Initiative Rate.
Youth Alienation and
Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.
Police
Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.
Temptation
flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home
- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)
Flow
rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables
Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.
Police
Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.
- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)
Flow
rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.
Increased
Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.
- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)
Flow
rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile
Detention population by 4 months.
Assumption: The
average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre
Sentence.
- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)
Flow
rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.
Assumption:
There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually
more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary
of Police.
- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)
Flow
rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the
Community Development Resource $ variable.
Community
Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.
For
every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active
Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.
- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)
Flow
rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and
Further Negative Influence Rate.
Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly
proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.
Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further
Negative Influences Flow of 25%.
- Inspired (Constant Rate)
Flow
rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the
Positive Influences at Home variable.
- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)
Flow
rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.
Assumption:
There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community
Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious
Upstanding Members of Bourke society.
- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)
Flow
Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%
Assumption:
Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which
lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation,
boredom and recklessness.
EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES
Base Settings:
Police Officers = 10
Community Development Resource $ = 5,000
Police Initiative Rate = 1
⮝
Increasing
Community Development Resource $
- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
increasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn decreases Youth Alienation.
Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.
- Increases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing
Community Engagement Programs.
- Increases Upstanding
Citizen due to the increase in Community
Engagement Programs.
⮟
Decreasing
Community Development Resource $
- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
decreasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn increases Youth Alienation.
Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.
- Decreases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing
Community Engagement Programs .
- Decreases Upstanding
Citizen due to the decrease in Community
Engagement Programs.
⮝
Increasing
Police Officers
- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
⮟
Decreasing
Police Officers
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
⮝
Increasing
Police Initiative
- Decreases Temptation
Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
⮟
Decreasing
Police Initiative
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
INTERESTING POINTS
- Try setting Community
Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.
Notice
how Youth just constantly circulate between Home,
Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged
with the amount of children in Community
Engagement and Upstanding Citizens
stocks seem Negligible
- Try setting Community
Development Resource $ to 30,000 , Police
Officers to 1
and Police Initiative Rate to 1.
Notice
that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant
proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community
Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding
Citizens
- Try setting Community
Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.
Notice
that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the
youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any
improvement in the situation.
