This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

WIP ideas for group model building representation

Relationship between major risk factors, and major diseases

This model was developed to support Health Systems Thinking & Learning Events using the systems dynamics modelling approach.

This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.

This model was developed to support Health Systems Thinking & Learning Events using the systems dynamics modelling approach.

Addition to Program Evaluation Insight based on Health System Efficiency WHO Europe 2016 publication includes vital signs

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

Adapted from ​Systems approaches to public health by Alan Shiell and Penny Hawe See also Health System Efficiency IM and specific health outcome logic diagram example IM

Initial attempt to reduce confusion about risk and odds ratios.

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

This model was developed to support Health Systems Thinking & Learning Events using the systems dynamics modelling approach.

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

This model was created for ENGR 102 - Studio 2

This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts