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S-I-R covid-19 model

KRISTIAN SABATINO

COVID-19

Наурызбай Мерейлі

5

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

Ph_Covid19SDM_AngelKateCacayan

angel kate cacayan

32

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Сhina

Жангир Шаханов Covid-19 in china

Шаханов Жангир

5 4 months ago

COVID-19 SEIR Model for Indonesia

Daffa Muhammad Romero

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions

Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.

Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Steven D'Alessandro

39

Introduction:

This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania. It shows how the government policy tries to reduce the spread of COVID-19 whilst also impacting the local economy.

Assumptions:

This model has four variables that influence the number of COVID-19 cases: infection rate, immunity loss rate, recovery rate and death rate.

In order to reduce the pandemic spread, in this model, assume the government released six policies when Burnie COVID-19 cases are equal or over 10 cases. Policies are vaccination promotion, travel restriction to Burnie, quarantine, social distance, lockdown and testing rate.

Government policies would reduce the pandemic. However, it decreases economic growth at the same time. In this model, only list three variable that influence local economic activities.

Travel restrictions and quarantine will reduce Burnie tourism and decrease the local economy. On the other hand, quarantine, social distance, lockdown allow people to stay at home, increasing E-commerce business.

As a result, policies that cause fewer COVID-19 cases also cause more considerable negative damage to the economy.

Interesting insights:

One of the interesting findings is that the government policy would reduce the COVID-19 spread significantly if I adjust the total government policies are over 20% (vaccine promotion, travel restriction, quarantine, social distance, lockdown), 3560 people will die, then no more people get COVID-19.

However, if I change the total government policy to less than 5%, the whole Burnie people will die according to the model. Therefore, we need to follow the polices, which saves our lives.

BMA708 assignment3 - Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie

Zhiyuan Wang

SIR Modeling of Covid-19 in Cameroon

Briana Soriano

COVID-19

ERMAKOV SEMEN

Агентное моделирование по COVID-19

Наурызбай Мерейлі

Covid-19 in Germany

Мадияр Сейтмуратов

Model description:

This model is designed to simulate the Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania by estimating several factors such as exposed population, infection rate, testing rate, recovery rate, death rate and immunity loss. The model also simulates the measures implemented by the government which will impact on the local infection and economy.

Assumption:

Government policies will reduce the mobility of the population as well as the infection. In addition, economic activities in the tourism and hospitality industry will suffer negative influences from the government measures. However, essential businesses like supermarkets will benefit from the health policies on the contrary.

Variables:

Infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, testing rate are the variables to the cases of Covid-19. On the other hand, the number of cases is also a variable to the government policies, which directly influences the number of exposed.

The GDP is dependent on the variables of economic activities. Nonetheless, the government’s lockdown measure has also become the variable to the economic activities.

Interesting insights:

Government policies are effective to curb infection by reducing the number of exposed when the case number is greater than 10. The economy becomes stagnant when the case spikes up but it climbs up again when the number of cases is under control.

Sample Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania by Yim Fong Ng (544885)

Chrissie Ng

AGENT-BASED MODEL OF COVID-19

AL JOHN D. CENA

Agent based Modeling Simulation for Pandemic COVID-19 Disease

Covid-19(ABM)_VHK

Venkata Habiram Koppaka

7

Check how different times of recovery and deths in cases of covid-19 infulence 2 key mortality indicators:

Overall mortalityr ate (ratio of all deaths to all cases)

Resolved cases mortality rate (ratio of all deaths to recovered cases)

Assumed delays are:

5 weeks for recovery cases

2 weeks for death cases

Delays are built into conveyor stocks, so cannot be adjusted by slider

keep in mind Insigth uses similar but made-up numbers and linear flow of new cases (in opposition to exponential in real world)

Understanding Covid-19 mortality

Cezary Zając

The System Dynamics Model presents the the COVID-19 status in Puerto Princesa City

самостоятельная

Ксения

4 months ago

Tugas Kelompok Teknik Pemodelan dan Simulasi

SIR Model Covid-19

Danurrizad Ryan Darmoko

12

Covid-19 TAED

Jose

Sike Liu's model on COVID-19 & Burnie Economy

This model contains three parts, the first part stimulates the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Burnie; the second part describes possible government policies on pandemic control; and the third part examines the possible negative impact on economy growth from those policies.

Assumptions:

1. The state boarder has already been closed and all new arrivals in Burnie need to enter a fixed period of quarantine. And the quarantine rate measures the strength of the government policy on quarantine (such as length and method).

2. Patient zero refers to the initial number of undetected virus carriers in the community.

3. Government policies such as social distancing, compulsory mask and lock down could effectively reduce community’s exposure to the virus.

4. Social distancing and compulsory mask will be triggered when COVID-19 cases reach and beyond 10 and lock down will be triggered when cases reach and beyond 1000.

4. High vaccine rate, on the other hand, could effectively reduce the exposed people’s chance of getting infected.

5. Only when vaccine rate reaches 0.6 and beyond, then the spread of COVID-19 will be significantly slowed.

6. Vaccine can’t 100% prevent the infection of the virus.

7.The infected people will need to be tested so that they could be counted as COVID-19 cases and the test rate decides the percentage of infected people being tested.

8. After people recover, there are chances of them losing immunity and the immunity lost rate measures that.

9. The COVID-19 cases could also be detected at quarantine facilities, and the quarantine process will effectively reduce the Infection and exposure rate.

10. Social distancing and compulsory mask wearing are considered as light restrictions in this model and will have less impact on both supply and demand side, and lockdown is considered as heavy restriction which will have strong negative impact on economy growth in this model.

11. In this model, light restrictions will have more negative impacts on the demand side compared to the supply side.

12. In this model, both supply side and demand side will power the economy growth.

Interest hints:

The vaccine could significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19 and effectively reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.

The number of the COVID-19 cases will eventually be stabilized when the number of susceptible is running out in a community (reached community immunity).

Quarantine could slightly reduce the cases numbers, but the most effective way is to reduce the number of new arrivals.

BMA708_Assignment 3_Sike Liu_567871_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy