This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing, the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
This is a system dynamics model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie which shows the process of infections and how government responses, impact on the local economy.
First part is outbreak model, we can know that when people is infected, there are two situations. One is that he recovers from treatment, but even if he recovered, the immunity loss rate increase, makes him to become infected again. The other situation is death. In this outbreak, the government's health policies (ban on non-essential trips, closure of non-essential retailers, limits on public gatherings and quarantine ) help to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 new cases. Moreover, government legislation is dependent on number of COVID-19 cases and testing rates.
Second part: the model of Govt legislation and economic impact. Gov policy can help to reduce infection rate and local economy at same way. The increase of number of COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on local Tourism industry and economic growth rate. On the other hand, Govt legislation also can be change when reported COVID-19 case are less or equal to 10.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS]
A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply.
It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases are 10 or less.
Interesting insights
The infection rate will decline if the government increase the testing ranges, meanwhile, the more confirmed cases will increase the pressure on hospital capacity and generate more demand for medical resources, which will promote government policy intervention to narrow the demand gap and affect economic performance by increasing hospital construction with financial investment.
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
This model demonstrates the COVID-19 outbreak in Bernie, Tasmania, and shows the relationship between coVID-19 outbreaks, government policy and the local economy. The spread of pandemics is influenced by many factors, such as infection rates, mortality rates, recovery rates and government policies. Although government policy has brought the Covid-19 outbreak under control, it has had a negative impact on the financial system, and the increase in COVID-19 cases has had a negative impact on economic growth.
Assumptions:
The model is based on different infection rates, including infection rate, mortality rate, detection rate and recovery rate. There is a difference between a real case and a model. Since the model setup will only be initiated when 10 cases are reported, the impact on infection rates and economic growth will be reduced.
Interesting insights:
Even as infection rates fall, mortality rates continue to rise. However, the rise in testing rates and government health policies contribute to the stability of mortality. The model thinks that COVID-19 has a negative impact on offline industry and has a positive impact on online industry.
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts
Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model, will stop for next 52 weeks).
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.
This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or
Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of
the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.
The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following. - No travel (interstate or international) - Isolation within the residents homes - Social distancing by 1.5m - Quarantine - Non essential companies to be temporarily closed - Limitations on public gatherings - And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community
This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates. In my opinion: When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.
Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded. Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.
Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.
Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.
This model was designed from the SIR
model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19
outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
Assumptions:
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative
effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
Parameters:
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background
disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be
changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15
to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social
distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Economic's parameters
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from
0.3 to 0.5)
Interesting insight
An increased vaccination rate and testing
rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little
more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system
still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
This model indicate indicates the modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government policies with the effect on the local economy. Model was occurred at Burnie, Tasmania. The model mainly contains three parts: COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, four differences government policies and what the impact on economy from those policies.
Assumptions:
(1) Various variables influence the model, which can result in varied outcomes. The following values are based on an estimate and may differ from actual values. Government initiatives are focused at reducing Covid-19 infections and, as a result, affecting (both positive and negative) economic growth.
(2) 42% of infected people will recovery. 10% of people who are infected will die and the rate relatively higher due to the much old people living in Burnie, Tasmania.
78% of cases get tested.
(3) Government policy will only be implemented when there are ten or more recorded cases. Four government policies have had influences on infection.
(4) The rising number of instances will have a negative impact on Burnie's economic growth.
Insights:
1. As a result of the government's covid 19 rules, fewer people will be vulnerable. Less people going to be susceptible.
2. After the government policy intervention, there is a effectively reduce of infected people.
3. Overall, there is no big differences of economic performance from the graph, might due to the positive and negative effect of economy. And after two weeks, the economy maintained a level of development without much decline.
This model aims to show that how Tasmania government's Covid-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policy can damage the economy.
This model assumes that if the COVID-19 cases are more than 10, the government will take action such as quarantine and lockdown at the area. These policy can indirectly affect the local economy in many different way. At the same time, strict policy may be essential for combating Covid-19.
From the simulation of the model, we can clearly see that the economy of Burine will be steady increase when government successfully reduces the COVID-19 cased and make it spreading slower.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy. Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy. This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.
Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases. The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative.
![[The Model of COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in Burnie, TAS] A model of COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from the government with the impact on the local economy and medical supply. It is assumed that the government policy is triggered and rely on reported COVID-19 cases when the confirmed cases](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/44b61667-a1e2-4b2a-ade5-e63899744c9d/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20251208%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20251208T020101Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
