This is a simulation of monetary flows for a business that uses  Circular Money . All numbers represent 1000's of dollars. So a revenue of 3 means a revenue of $3000.  Revenues and expenses are monthly.
This is a simulation of monetary flows for a business that uses Circular Money.
All numbers represent 1000's of dollars. So a revenue of 3 means a revenue of $3000.
Revenues and expenses are monthly.
A detailed description of all model input parameters is available  here . These are discussed further  here  and  here .  Update 14 December 2015 (v2.5): correction to net output basis LCOE calculation, to include actual self power demand for wind, PV and batteries in place of "2015 reference" value
A detailed description of all model input parameters is available here. These are discussed further here and here.

Update 14 December 2015 (v2.5): correction to net output basis LCOE calculation, to include actual self power demand for wind, PV and batteries in place of "2015 reference" values.

Update 20 November 2015 (v2.4): levelised O&M costs now added for wind & PV, so that complete (less transmission-related investments) LCOE for wind and PV is calculated, for both gross and net output.

Update 18 November 2015 (v2.3: development of capital cost estimates for wind, PV and battery buffering, adding levelised capital cost per unit net output, for comparison with levelised capital cost per unit gross output. Levelised capital cost estimate has been substantially refined, bringing this into line with standard practice for capital recovery calculation. Discount rate is user adjustable.

Default maximum autonomy periods reduced to 48 hours for wind and 72 hours for PV.

Update 22 October 2015 (v2.2): added ramped introduction of wind and PV buffering capacity. Wind and PV buffering ramps from zero to the maximum autonomy period as wind and PV generated electricity increases as a proportion of overall electricity supply. The threshold proportion for maximum autonomy period is user adjustable. Ramping uses interpolation based on an elliptical curve between zero and the threshold proportion, to avoid discontinuities that produce poor response shape in key variables.

Update 23 September 2015 (v2.1): added capital investment calculation and associated LCOE contribution for wind generation plant, PV generation plant and storage batteries.

**This version (v2.0) includes refined energy conversion efficiency estimates, increasing the global mean efficiency, but also reducing the aggressiveness of the self-demand learning curves for all sources. The basis for the conversion efficiencies, including all assumptions relating to specific types of work & heat used by the economy, is provided in this Excel spreadsheet.

Conversion of self power demand to energy services demand for each source is carried out via a reference global mean conversion efficiency, set as a user input using the global mean conversion efficiency calculated in the model at the time of transition commencement (taken to be the time for which all EROI parameter values are defined. A learning curve is applied to this value to account for future improvement in self power demand to services conversion efficiency.**

The original "standard run" version of the model is available here.
  Simulates personal accounts over time.    Model based on the  Sustainable Money System . For a short introduction, read this  short article  or watch the  TEDx talk .
Simulates personal accounts over time.

Model based on the Sustainable Money System.
For a short introduction, read this short article or watch the TEDx talk.
8 4 months ago
 This is the original model version (v1.0) with default "standard run" parameter set: see detailed commentary  here  and  here . As of 2 September 2015, ongoing development has now shifted to  this version  of the model.   The significance of reduced energy return on energy invested (EROI) in the tr
This is the original model version (v1.0) with default "standard run" parameter set: see detailed commentary here and here. As of 2 September 2015, ongoing development has now shifted to this version of the model.

The significance of reduced energy return on energy invested (EROI) in the transition from fossil fuel to renewable primary energy sources is often disputed by both renewable energy proponents and mainstream economists.​ This model illustrates the impact of EROI in large-scale energy transition using a system dynamics approach. The variables of primary interest here are: 1) net energy available to "the rest of the economy" as renewable penetration increases [Total final energy services out to the economy]; and 2) the size of the energy sector as a proportion of overall economic activity, treating energy use as a very rough proxy for size [Energy services ratio].
This model aggregates energy supply in the form of fuels and electricity as a single variable, total final energy services, and treats the global economy as a single closed system.
The model includes all major incumbent energy sources, and assumes a transition to wind, PV, hydro and nuclear generated electricity, plus biomass electricity and fuels. Hydro, biomass and nuclear growth rates are built into the model from the outset, and wind and PV emplacement rates respond to the built-in retirement rates for fossil energy sources, by attempting to make up the difference between the historical maximum total energy services out to the global economy, and the current total energy services out. Intermittency of PV and wind are compensated via Li-ion battery storage. Note, however, that seasonal variation of PV is not fully addressed i.e. PV is modeled using annual and global average parameters. For this to have anything close to real world validity, this would require that all PV capacity is located in highly favourable locations in terms of annual average insolation, and that energy is distributed from these regions to points of end use. The necessary distribution infrastructure is not included in the model at this stage.
It is possible to explore the effect of seasonal variation with PV assumed to be distributed more widely by de-rating capacity factor and increasing the autonomy period for storage.

This version of the model takes values for emplaced capacities of conventional sources (i.e. all energy sources except wind and PV) as exogenous inputs, based on data generated from earlier endogenously-generated emplaced capacities (for which emplacement rates as a proportion of existing installed capacity were the primary exogenous input).
The statement that there can be no economic activity
without  energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

 An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (especia
The statement that there can be no economic activity without  energy and that fossil fuels are finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.

An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (especially when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly. In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is constantly increasing. The falling ratio 'EROI' (Energy Return on Energy Invested ) provides yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our economies. In 1940 it took the energy of only one barrel of oil to extract 100. Today the energy of 1 barrel of oil will yield only 15. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. An EROI of 1:1 means that it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil - oil production would simply stop! 


  Overview  A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.     How the model works.   Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.  Wit
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
  Simulation of the effect of a basic income on rental prices based on the assumption people are only willing to spend a certain percentage of their income on rent.
Simulation of the effect of a basic income on rental prices based on the assumption people are only willing to spend a certain percentage of their income on rent.
国連が公表している人口の将来推計とOECDが公表している各種経済統計を参考にして、2100年までの人口・経済見通しを作成するためのダイナミクスモデル。     ①人口:年少(0-14歳)・再生産年齢人口(15-49歳)・生産年齢人口(15-64歳)・前期高齢者(65-74歳)・後期高齢者(75歳以上)にグループ分けし、出生数(再生産年齢人口×出生率)と死亡数(年代別死亡率×年代別人口の合計)を算出して総人口を推計     ②経済:2020年のGDPをストックとして、コブ=ダグラス型関数に基づき労働力人口(15歳以上人口×労働参加率)と資本ストック(総固定資本形成)および全要素生産性の成長率をフ
国連が公表している人口の将来推計とOECDが公表している各種経済統計を参考にして、2100年までの人口・経済見通しを作成するためのダイナミクスモデル。

①人口:年少(0-14歳)・再生産年齢人口(15-49歳)・生産年齢人口(15-64歳)・前期高齢者(65-74歳)・後期高齢者(75歳以上)にグループ分けし、出生数(再生産年齢人口×出生率)と死亡数(年代別死亡率×年代別人口の合計)を算出して総人口を推計

②経済:2020年のGDPをストックとして、コブ=ダグラス型関数に基づき労働力人口(15歳以上人口×労働参加率)と資本ストック(総固定資本形成)および全要素生産性の成長率をフローとすることで将来のGDPを算出

③-1:就業者からの社会保険料と後期高齢者(75歳以上)からの保険料から総保険料を算出し、社会保障負担から差し引いた不足額は公費負担となる

③-2:国際比較の観点から国民経済計算体系(SNA)に従って、高齢・医療・遺族・障害・家族・雇用・失業・住居・その他の合計を社会保障負担とする

現状投影シナリオ:2020年から2100年までに制度や前提条件の極端な変更はなく、現状のトレンドが続くと想定される場合のシミュレーション結果
A simple model of economic growth where a government taxes the economy, and spends it on capital and revenue goods.
A simple model of economic growth where a government taxes the economy, and spends it on capital and revenue goods.
 Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist
seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as
a response from

Economic growth cannot go on forever, although politicians and most economist seem to think so. The activity involved in economic growth necessarily  generates entropy (disorder and environmental degradation). Entorpy in turn generates powerful negative feedback loops which will, as a response from nature, ensure that economic activity will eventually grind to a complete halt.  In these circumstances organised society cannot persist and will collapse. The negative feedback loops shown in this graph have already started to operate. The longer economic growth continues unabated, the more powerful these negative feedback loops will become. How long can economic growth continue before it is overwhelmed? It may not be very far in the future.

  Overview  A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.     How the model works.   Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.  Wit
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
This model describes the influences different taxes have on the behaviour in our society
This model describes the influences different taxes have on the behaviour in our society
This model explains the difference between Mountain bikes riding compared to logging in the Tasmanian forests. Logging allows the activity in the forest with a negative demand for timber providing an income (with the price variable). The deforestation variable shows us that over time, the forest wil
This model explains the difference between Mountain bikes riding compared to logging in the Tasmanian forests.
Logging allows the activity in the forest with a negative demand for timber providing an income (with the price variable). The deforestation variable shows us that over time, the forest will run out if the logging keeps going on this way.
Alternatively, mountain biking allows a demand of visitors who want to see the scenary. They increase the regional tourism which is good for the community as it involves other businesses around too. The charges paid by visitors and tourists allow an income for the activity which makes it productive over time and great for TAS.
As we stimulate the model, we can see that it is better to have more visitors and more tourists rather than more logging as it will be better over time.
 Simulates total money mass over time. An aggregate of all demurrage free buffers is used to calculate demurrage fees. The total amount of demurrage free money in the system can never exceed the number of users multiplied with the size of the demurrage free buffer.    Model based on the  Sustainable
Simulates total money mass over time. An aggregate of all demurrage free buffers is used to calculate demurrage fees. The total amount of demurrage free money in the system can never exceed the number of users multiplied with the size of the demurrage free buffer.

Model based on the Sustainable Money System.
For a short introduction, read this short article of watch the TEDx talk.
Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.
Model showing the effect of bank lending of deposited money as a multiplier in the creation of new money. Multiplier effect is shown as related to the bank reserve requirement on deposited funds.
   Overview   The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.      How Does the Model Work?   Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania.

Overview

The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.

 

How Does the Model Work?

Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.

 

Interesting Insights

Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.

A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




  Overview  

 It is a model simulating
logging and adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) competition in Derby,
Tasmania. It is a chance for northeast Tasmania to become an exciting, new, world-class
product for the mountain bike tourism industry, which drives local economic
development. 

 Simul

Overview

It is a model simulating logging and adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) competition in Derby, Tasmania. It is a chance for northeast Tasmania to become an exciting, new, world-class product for the mountain bike tourism industry, which drives local economic development.

Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works

l  Trees grow; we cut them down because of demand for Timber and sell the logs.

l  The mountain bike visits depend on previous experience and suggestions.

l  Previous experience and suggestions depend on the number of trees compared to visitors and adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of mountain bike trail users.

l  The employment opportunity depends on the mountain bike demand and demand for Timber.

Interesting Insights

Mountain biking appears to be unaffected by heavy logging. The visitor experience and numbers are improved by reducing park capacity. The main issue is that any success with the mountain bike park increases visitor numbers. A high timber price is also required to balance the park's popularity. Mountain biking appears to require only a narrow corridor; that is, single-track mountain bike trails are enough. The employment is a measure of the economic acting, a recession or growth trends.

国連が公表している人口の将来推計とOECDが公表している各種経済統計を参考にして、2000年から2100年までの人口・経済見通しを作成するためのダイナミクスモデル。     ①人口:年少(0-14歳)・再生産年齢人口(15-49歳)・後期生産年齢人口(50-64歳)・老年人口(65歳以上)にグループ分けし、出生数(再生産年齢人口×出生率)と死亡数(年代別死亡率×年代別人口の合計)を算出して総人口を推計     ②経済:2000年のGDPをストックとして、コブ=ダグラス型関数に基づき労働力人口(15歳以上人口×労働参加率)と資本ストック(総固定資本形成)および全要素生産性の成長率をフローとし、購
国連が公表している人口の将来推計とOECDが公表している各種経済統計を参考にして、2000年から2100年までの人口・経済見通しを作成するためのダイナミクスモデル。

①人口:年少(0-14歳)・再生産年齢人口(15-49歳)・後期生産年齢人口(50-64歳)・老年人口(65歳以上)にグループ分けし、出生数(再生産年齢人口×出生率)と死亡数(年代別死亡率×年代別人口の合計)を算出して総人口を推計

②経済:2000年のGDPをストックとして、コブ=ダグラス型関数に基づき労働力人口(15歳以上人口×労働参加率)と資本ストック(総固定資本形成)および全要素生産性の成長率をフローとし、購買力平価レートの変化率も加味して将来のGDP(購買力平価換算)を算出

現状投影シナリオ:2000年から2100年までに制度や前提条件の極端な変更はなく、現状のトレンドが続くと想定される場合
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power
lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity,
since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning
of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of
To maintain economic wealth (roads, hospitals, power lines, etc.) power needs to be consumed. The same applies to economic activity, since any activity requires the consumption of energy. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the burning of fossil fuels was responsible for 79 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. So whilst economic activity takes place fossil fuels will be burned and CO2 emissions are unavoidable - unless we use exclusively renewable energy resources, which is not likely to occur very soon. However, the increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will have negative consequences, such droughts, floods, crop failures, etc. These effects represent limits to economic growth. The CLD illustrates some of the more prominent negative feedback loops that act as a break on economic growth and wealth.  As the negative feedback loops (B1-B4) get stronger, an interesting question is, 'will a sharp reduction in economic wealth and unavoidable recession lead to wide-spread food riots and disturbances?'

Neoliberalism
uses a deceptive narrative to declare that money the government spends into the economy in excesses of the taxes it collects creates a ‘government debt’.
In fact, the money the government spends into the economy in excess of the
taxes is an income, a benefit for the private sector. Whe
Neoliberalism uses a deceptive narrative to declare that money the government spends into the economy in excesses of the taxes it collects creates a ‘government debt’. In fact, the money the government spends into the economy in excess of the taxes is an income, a benefit for the private sector. When the government issues bonds, the money the private sector uses to buy them via banks comes from a residual cushion of dollars that the government already spent into the economy but has not yet taxed back.  If this were not the case, if the government had taxed back all the money it spent into the economy, then the economy could not function. There would be no dollars in the economy, since the government is the sole supplier of U.S. dollars! In the doted rectangle in the graph you can see that the dollars paid to the government for bonds sits in a dollar asset account. When the government issues bonds it simply provides the public and institutions with a desirable money substitute that pays interest i.e. Treasury bonds. It is a swap of one kind of financial asset for another. To register this swap the government debits the dollar asset account and credits the bond account.  When the time comes to redeem (take back) the bonds, all the government does is revers the swap, and that’s all!  When you look at the total amount of finacial assets in the private sector,  these remain constant at $ 25 BN  after the payment of $ 5 BN taxes. This implies that  no lending of financial assets of the private sector to the government has taken place during the swap operation. The money was always there. The debt mountain is an illusion!