These models and simulations have been tagged “Tourism”.
It is a model simulating
logging and adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) competition in Derby,
Tasmania. It is a chance for northeast Tasmania to become an exciting, new, world-class
product for the mountain bike tourism industry, which drives local economic
Simulation borrowed from the
Easter Island simulation.
l Trees grow; we cut them down because of demand for Timber and sell the
l The mountain bike visits depend on previous experience and suggestions.
l Previous experience and suggestions depend on the number of trees
compared to visitors and adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity
limits the number of mountain bike trail users.
l The employment opportunity depends on the mountain bike demand and demand
Mountain biking appears to be
unaffected by heavy logging. The visitor experience and numbers are improved by
reducing park capacity. The main issue is that any success with the mountain
bike park increases visitor numbers. A high timber price is also required to
balance the park's popularity. Mountain biking appears to require only a narrow
corridor; that is, single-track mountain bike trails are enough. The employment is a measure of the economic acting, a recession or growth trends.
The model shows the industry connection and conflict between Forestry and Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. The objective of this simulation is to find out the balance point for co-exist.
How Does the Model Work?
Both industries can provide economic contribution to Tasmania. Firstly, selling timbers through logging would generate income. Also, spendings from mountain bike riders would generate incomes. However, low tree regrowth rate can not cover up logging, which influences the beautiful vistas and riders' experiences. While satisfaction and expectation depend on vistas and experience, the demand of mountain biking would be influenced through repeat visits and world of mouth as well.
Although forestry can provide a great amount of economic contribution to Tasmania, over logging goes against ESG framework as well as creating conflict with mountain tourism. As long as the number of rider visits is stable, tourism can always provide a greater economic contribution compared to forestry. Therefore, the government should consider the balance point between two industries.
This model simulates logging and mountain biking competition in Derby, Tasmania. The Simulation is referenced to simulate Derby mountain biking with logging.
The tourism industry is represented on the model's left side, and the logging industry is on the right side. Interactions between these two industries generate tax revenues. Logging and tourism have different growth rates regarding people working/consuming. The initial values of these two industries in the model are not fixed but increase yearly due to inflation or economic growth.
From the perspective of tourism, as the number of tourists keeps growing, the number of people who choose to ride in Derby City also gradually increases. And the people who ride rate the ride. The negative feedback feeds back into the cycling population. Similarly, positive cycling reviews lead to more customer visits. And all the customers will create a revenue through tourism, and a certain proportion of the income will become tourism tax.
From a logging perspective, it is very similar to the tourism industry. As the number of people working in the industry is forecast to increase, the industry's overall size is predicted to grow. And as the industry's size continues to rise, the taxes on the logging industry will also continue to rise. Since logging is an industry, the tax contribution will be more significant than the tourism excise tax.
This model assumption is illustrated below:
1. The amount of tax reflects the level of industrial development.
2. The goal of reducing carbon emissions lets us always pay attention to the environmental damage caused by the logging industry.
3. The government's regulatory goal is to increase overall income while ensuring the environment.
4. Logging will lead to environmental damage, which will decrease the number of tourists.
This model is based on tourism tax revenue versus logging tax revenue. Tourism tax revenue is more incredible than logging tax revenue, indicating a better environment. As a result of government policy, the logging industry will be heavily developed in the short term. Growth in the logging industry will increase by 40%. A growth rate of 0.8 and 0.6 of the original is obtained when logging taxes are 2 and 4 times higher than tourism taxes.
Furthermore, tourism tax and logging tax also act on the positive rate, which is the probability that customers give a positive evaluation. The over-development of the logging industry will lead to the destruction of environmental resources and further affect the tourism industry. The logging tax will also affect the tourism Ride Rate, which is the probability that all tourism customers will choose Derby city.
This model more accurately reflects logging and tourism's natural growth and ties the two industries together environmentally. Two ways of development are evident in the two industries. Compared to tourism, logging shows an upward spiral influenced by government policies. Government attitudes also affect tourism revenue, but more by the logging industry.
This model not only reveals the conflict between proposed logging of adjacent coups and Mountain bike in Derby but also simulates competition between them. The simulation model aims to investigate the potential coexistence opportunities between the mountain biking and forestry and find out the optimal point for coexistence to help improve Tasmania’s economy.
How the model works
It is recognized that the mountain biking and forestry industries can help support the Tasmanian community and strengthen the Tasmanian economy. The logging and forest sector in Derby can help the local community generate wealth and create more employment opportunities. The sector main source of income come from selling timber such as domestic and export sales. Nevertheless, the sector’s profit has decreased over the past few years on account of the weaker demand and reduced output. Accordingly, the profitability and output of the sector have fluctuated in response to the availability of timber, the timber price movements as well as the impact of changing demand conditions in downstream timber processing sectors. The slow growth rate for a timber has a negative impact on the profitability of the forestry industry and the economic contribution of this industry is set to grow slower, as there is a positive correlation between these variables. In addition, the mountain biking industry in Derby can bring a huge significant economic contribution to the local community. The revenue streams of the industry come from bike rental, accommodation, retail purchase and meals and beverages. These variables also influence the past experience which is positive correlation between reviews and satisfaction that can impact the demand for the mountain biking trails. More importantly, the low regeneration rate for a timber can have a negative impact on the landscape of the mountain biking and the tourist’s past experience that led to a decrease in the demand of tourists for the mountain biking, as the reviews and satisfaction are dependent on the landscape and past experience. It is evident that the industry not only helps the local community generate wealth through industry value addition but also creates a lot of employment opportunities. Therefore, the Mountain Bike Trails can be regarded as sustainable tourism that can help increase employment opportunities and economic contribution that can be of main economic significance to the Tasmania’s economy. Therefore, both industries can co-exist that can maximise the economic contribution to the local community and the Tasmanian economy.
It is interesting to note that the activity of cutting down trees does not influence the development of Mountain Biking industry. By lowering the prices of accommodation, food, bike rental and souvenirs, it can help increase the reviews and recommendations of Mountain Biking that will enhance the number of tourists. In this case, the Mountain Biking industry can achieve sustainable economic growth in the long-term while the economic growth rate of forestry industry will continue to decrease.
A simple model simulates the conflict between adventure tourism (mountain biking) and logging in Derby, Tasmania. It demonstrates how these industries co-exist and in what circumstances would affect the interests of both parties.
How does the model work?
The demand for mountain biking came from visitors' enjoyment of nature and desire for scenery. Adventure is driven by the excitement of visitors with their experience and friends' recommendations.
The demand for timber leads to the amount of logging, and its price per log impacts forest revenue. It brought employment opportunities to the local residents in Derby Mountain. The excessive deforestation affects landscapes and scenery, so regrowth is essential.
The major rebate is reducing park spaces will degrade visitors' experience of enjoyment with nature. Still, at the same time, logging brings significant business benefits to the local residents. The environmental effect of being well-managed between mountain bikes and logging needs to be depth-explored and balanced.
This model displays the
conflict between the tourism and timber industry in Derby, Tasmania. It becomes
a problem for the government officials when choosing the future policy direction.
Our aim is to construct a model for simulation and find a equilibrium point to
maximize the state benefit.
How Does the Model
The key factor of the model is the value
of the policy variable. It can take values between -1 and +1. The more it is close
to +1 means that the policy government takes is more tourism-friendly. The more
it is close to -1 means that the policy government takes is more timber-friendly.
the policy variable, there are three sections for the model.
We assume that there exist a population
which contains the whole potential customers. The potential customers will make
bike trips to Derby at a relatively stable rate. The input policy value will
affect the satisfaction rate for the tourists. Some of them will provide
positive feedbacks and become our potential customers again. On the other hand,
those had bad experience will no longer make trips to Derby. All the tourists
make consumption every month and part of the expense will become the tourism revenue.
The average expense variable is also provided in this section.
Section 2: The timber
The input policy variable will also affect
the employment in the timber industry. It will partially determine the industry
growth rate. Like the tourism, the sales/industry scale will generate monthly revenue
for the industry at a given rate.
Section 3: The state
The revenue from the two industries will
be added up. Our aim is to adjust the policy value to maximize the state benefit.
Excessive logging may lead to environmental
problems and it isn’t the best option for the whole state benefit. Based on the
pre-set parameters and the model, we can see that the revenue contribution from
the tourism is also considerable. According to our results, the policy value
should be around 0.31, which represents the tourism-friendly policy.