This is a system dynamic model to
describe relationship between local logging industry and biking tourism in
Tasmanian Derby Mountain.
In the dynamic model, the left-hand side shows how Derby
get income from local biking tourism. The biking visitors number are influenced
by scenery evaluation which depend on local size of forest and influenced government policy support when Biking Tourism income
is over 1000 unit. Biking visitors with good recommendation will also back to
Mountain Derby and bring income for local in twice or more times. In the right-hand side, we found the income of
logging industry was influenced by local logging growth rate and government
policy if local Biking Tourism income is over 1000 unit. The increase of
logging industry will also increase local employment which will influence employee
cost. This factor will also affect total logging income in Derby Mountain.
The simulation results show, with governments support the
Biking tourism will increase sharply in the first few years and finally instead
local logging industry, at same time bring good environment and save local
forest under local increase logging industry. The recommendation graph shows
that, the number of good recommendation & bad recommendation for Derby
Mountain biking tourism will also increase in high speed in front of few years
with data fluctuation but finally maintain in a stable line. Last simulation
graph shows that how policy factor influences logging and biking industry. The Government
has strong support in local tourism, however, as number of tourists increase,
the positive impact from government support will continue decrease. On the contrary,
the government support influence will also decease to local logging industry when
logging been instead by tourism.
The model explores the interactions between mountain biking industry and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania. Although both industries promote the economy, they generate income at a different rate and at each other's expense. Given such competing relationship, this model focuses on demonstrating to what extent can these two industries co-exist through runing simulation. Further, the model explores the conditions under which one may adversely impact the other.
How does the model work?
We build two models for forestry and mountain biking respectively. Each model demonstrates how the industry imposes influences and benefits the economy as a whole.
With mountain bike visits, forestry enhances the scenary and increases excitement and adventure, that will lead to better tourist experiences and recommendation. As such, more visitors come to the park, that boosts the economy through higher tourism income.
From the perspective of logging, logging creates employment opportunities and generates income from timber. On the other hand, it also degrades the scenary and the experience of mountain bikers looking for adventure. The immediate effect is the decreasing amount of visitors. However, fewer visitors improve experience and may pull up amount of park visits.
Interesting Insights
As shown from the simulation results, logging does not deter the development of mountain biking in Derby. Over the long term, adventure tourism is expected to continuously generate increasing income. This is attributable to the direct income from park charges, as well as accompanying spending in restaurants and accommodation. As a result, the total economic benefits for the local area is positive and tends to increase over time.
In addition, past experience fluctuates as the amount of visitors changes. These two variables interact and impose impacts on each other. More visitors will degrade the experience and decrease park visits, which will in turn improve the experience and increase park visits.
Moreover, demand for timber actually promotes adventure tourism through creating more job opportunities, which would increase park visits.
This model demonstrates the intertwining relationship
between the economic contribution of industrial logging and that of adventure
tourism (dominated by mountain biking).
In terms of the revenue from industrial logging at Derby, it
is driven by demand of timber and the timber price. However, the forest
resources are limited, which will put constraints on the expansion of industrial
logging due to regrowth rate and existing forestation.
The tourism can bring economic benefits to Derby from hospitality
and selling tickets to local adventure activities. The hospitality income can
be determined by the average length of holidaying at Derby and average local pricing
for accommodation, food and beverages and related essentials. Tickets sales are
largely affected by the similar factors such as average expense per activity
and average number of activities that tourists usually choose. Having explained
the streams of possible income from the tourism, the key driver for tourism
income is the desire or demand to travel. Unlikely logging, tourism is
renewable and perpetual. However, logging can be conceived as a major
constraint on attracting as many tourists as the economy so desires.
This is because deforestation caused by logging will
diminish the natural scenery at Derby and in turn, the tourist operations and
attractions based upon natural scenery. Loss of forest resources is likely to
make Derby less attractive to visitors.
In short, the tourism and logging both provides economic benefits
to Derby but in a competing relationship. However, the sustainability possessed by tourism cannot be rivaled by industrial logging in long term. Logging revenue reveals its advantage at inception of observed time period. Such advantage wears out over the time due to reduction in resources and sluggish regrowth. Eventually. the tourism income turns into the major player. To understand how they co-exist,
please simulate the model.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
This model simulates logging and mountain biking competition in Derby, Tasmania. The Simulation is referenced to simulate Derby mountain biking with logging.
Model Work
The tourism industry is represented on the model's left side, and the logging industry is on the right side. Interactions between these two industries generate tax revenues. Logging and tourism have different growth rates regarding people working/consuming. The initial values of these two industries in the model are not fixed but increase yearly due to inflation or economic growth.
Detail Insights
From the perspective of tourism, as the number of tourists keeps growing, the number of people who choose to ride in Derby City also gradually increases. And the people who ride rate the ride. The negative feedback feeds back into the cycling population. Similarly, positive cycling reviews lead to more customer visits. And all the customers will create a revenue through tourism, and a certain proportion of the income will become tourism tax.
From a logging perspective, it is very similar to the tourism industry. As the number of people working in the industry is forecast to increase, the industry's overall size is predicted to grow. And as the industry's size continues to rise, the taxes on the logging industry will also continue to rise. Since logging is an industry, the tax contribution will be more significant than the tourism excise tax.
This model assumption is illustrated below:
1. The amount of tax reflects the level of industrial development.
2. The goal of reducing carbon emissions lets us always pay attention to the environmental damage caused by the logging industry.
3. The government's regulatory goal is to increase overall income while ensuring the environment.
4. Logging will lead to environmental damage, which will decrease the number of tourists.
This model is based on tourism tax revenue versus logging tax revenue. Tourism tax revenue is more incredible than logging tax revenue, indicating a better environment. As a result of government policy, the logging industry will be heavily developed in the short term. Growth in the logging industry will increase by 40%. A growth rate of 0.8 and 0.6 of the original is obtained when logging taxes are 2 and 4 times higher than tourism taxes.
Furthermore, tourism tax and logging tax also act on the positive rate, which is the probability that customers give a positive evaluation. The over-development of the logging industry will lead to the destruction of environmental resources and further affect the tourism industry. The logging tax will also affect the tourism Ride Rate, which is the probability that all tourism customers will choose Derby city.
This model more accurately reflects logging and tourism's natural growth and ties the two industries together environmentally. Two ways of development are evident in the two industries. Compared to tourism, logging shows an upward spiral influenced by government policies. Government attitudes also affect tourism revenue, but more by the logging industry.
This model simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism(mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The purpose of this model is that focus on the relationship between the timber industry and mountain bike tourism in adventure. It also reflects how well these two industries co-exist.
How this model works
This model shows tree grow development. In order to maximize the profits from selling the logging, the demand for timbers will increase.
The mountain bike visits depend on past experience and recommendations. In addition, past experience and recommendations depend on Scenery, which is determined by the number of trees and visitors and adventure number. However, park capacity limits the number of use mountain bikes, because the convince of parking is a consideration for the visitors.
It seems like the high logging sale does not deter mountain bike activities. By reducing the parking capacity, visitor experience and number are increased. Because of the strong relationship between the mountain bike park and the explosion in visitor numbers. With the improvement in the number of visitors, the number of food and restaurants will go up as well. Because of the daily needs of the visitors.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
A simple model simulates the conflict between adventure tourism (mountain biking) and logging in Derby, Tasmania. It demonstrates how these industries co-exist and in what circumstances would affect the interests of both parties.
How does the model work?
The demand for mountain biking came from visitors' enjoyment of nature and desire for scenery. Adventure is driven by the excitement of visitors with their experience and friends' recommendations.
The demand for timber leads to the amount of logging, and its price per log impacts forest revenue. It brought employment opportunities to the local residents in Derby Mountain. The excessive deforestation affects landscapes and scenery, so regrowth is essential.
Interesting Insights
The major rebate is reducing park spaces will degrade visitors' experience of enjoyment with nature. Still, at the same time, logging brings significant business benefits to the local residents. The environmental effect of being well-managed between mountain bikes and logging needs to be depth-explored and balanced.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
This model not only reveals the conflict between proposed logging of adjacent coups and Mountain bike in Derby but also simulates competition between them. The simulation model aims to investigate the potential coexistence opportunities between the mountain biking and forestry and find out the optimal point for coexistence to help improve Tasmania’s economy.
How the model works
It is recognized that the mountain biking and forestry industries can help support the Tasmanian community and strengthen the Tasmanian economy. The logging and forest sector in Derby can help the local community generate wealth and create more employment opportunities. The sector main source of income come from selling timber such as domestic and export sales. Nevertheless, the sector’s profit has decreased over the past few years on account of the weaker demand and reduced output. Accordingly, the profitability and output of the sector have fluctuated in response to the availability of timber, the timber price movements as well as the impact of changing demand conditions in downstream timber processing sectors. The slow growth rate for a timber has a negative impact on the profitability of the forestry industry and the economic contribution of this industry is set to grow slower, as there is a positive correlation between these variables. In addition, the mountain biking industry in Derby can bring a huge significant economic contribution to the local community. The revenue streams of the industry come from bike rental, accommodation, retail purchase and meals and beverages. These variables also influence the past experience which is positive correlation between reviews and satisfaction that can impact the demand for the mountain biking trails. More importantly, the low regeneration rate for a timber can have a negative impact on the landscape of the mountain biking and the tourist’s past experience that led to a decrease in the demand of tourists for the mountain biking, as the reviews and satisfaction are dependent on the landscape and past experience. It is evident that the industry not only helps the local community generate wealth through industry value addition but also creates a lot of employment opportunities. Therefore, the Mountain Bike Trails can be regarded as sustainable tourism that can help increase employment opportunities and economic contribution that can be of main economic significance to the Tasmania’s economy. Therefore, both industries can co-exist that can maximise the economic contribution to the local community and the Tasmanian economy.
Interesting Insights
It is interesting to note that the activity of cutting down trees does not influence the development of Mountain Biking industry. By lowering the prices of accommodation, food, bike rental and souvenirs, it can help increase the reviews and recommendations of Mountain Biking that will enhance the number of tourists. In this case, the Mountain Biking industry can achieve sustainable economic growth in the long-term while the economic growth rate of forestry industry will continue to decrease.
Overview This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.
How the model works
The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails. On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income. The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.
Variables The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth. By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.
Interesting Insights The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure
tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.
How the model works:
Trees grow, and we cut them down because of the demand for Timber and
sell the logs. Mountain bikers and holiday visitors will come to the park and
this depends on experience and recommendations. Past experience and
recommendations depend on the Scenery, number of trees compared to the visitor
and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number
of users. To utilize highest park capacity, they need to promote to
the holiday visitor segment as well. Again, the visit depends on the scenery.
So, both mountain biking and forestry (logging) businesses need to contribute a
significant amount of revenue to CSR for faster regrowth of trees.
Interesting insights
It looks like a lot of logging doesn't stop people from mountain biking.
Faster replantation of the tree will balance out the impact created by
logging which will give the visitor a positive experience
and the number of visitors is both improved.
To keep the park's popularity in check, the price of wood needs to be high.
Also, it looks like mountain biking only needs a narrow path.
CSR contribution to nature can be a crucial factor.
Overview This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.
How the model works
The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails. On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income. The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.
Variables The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth. By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.
Interesting Insights The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
This model which simulates the competition of Logging with Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. This main reason of this simulation is to find if logging will affect the mountain tourism and by any chance they can co-exist.
How the model works.
Both Timber harvesting and mountain tourism can bring the economic contribution to Tasmania. In the Logging industry, it helps increase the need of employment and at the same time logging generate the profit through selling those timbers. In the Mountain Tourism industry, it can get the revenue through couple of ways which include accommodation (approximately 3 days find in paper), Restaurant and parking fee. However, the low growth rate of the trees is not keeping up with the rate of logging, if the trees getting less in Derby mountain, it will affect the sights and the riding experience for tourists, which will affect the satisfaction and expectation as it depends on the sights and experience. The satisfaction and expectation will influence the number of visitors, if they satisfied, they can come again or tell others about the great experience, if not, more and more people will not come again.
Interesting insights
It seems like logging has no significant negative effect to the mountain tourism, compare the forestry income with the tourism income, tourism income gradually higher than the forestry income at last, which means tourism is in a very important position, as long as the visitors are stable, tourism industry can provide greater economic contribution, stakeholders and governments can find the balance by maintain the status or better slightly reduce logging in order to make them co-exist.
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.
How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
This is a model that simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The simulation is borrowed from the Easter island simulation
