BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.
The government policy is triggered when the
number of infected is more than ten.
The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.
We set some fixed and adjusted variables.
Covid-19 outbreak's parameter
Fixed parameter: Background disease.
Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.
Government policy's parameters
Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)
Fixed parameter: Tourism
Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)
An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.
Burnie Situation in COVID 19
Assumption:Most people follow the social distancing rule and a few people need quarantine. Economic growth rate is composed by industrial production, service industry and online economy.
Interesting insight:Most infection happened in the group of people who do not follow the government policy. The online economy has a chance to growth fast during the COVID 19 period.