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BMA 708

BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO

Description:

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions:

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters:

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameter: Background disease.

Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA 708 Economy Health

  • 4 days 6 hours ago

Burnie Situation in COVID 19

jialin liu
Summary:This model shows the situation of Burnie in COVID 19. The assumed number of people death and recovered can be find in the model. It also shows how is the government policy influence the susceptible people and what factors will be affected by the government policy. 
Assumption:Most people follow the social distancing rule and a few people need quarantine. Economic growth rate is composed by industrial production, service industry and online economy. 
Interesting insight:Most infection happened in the group of people who do not follow the government policy. The online economy has a chance to growth fast during the COVID 19 period.   

COVID19 BMA 708

  • 3 weeks 2 days ago