THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Supply Demand Strategy

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt Where  • F(t) is the probability of failure  • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) • t is the observed service life (h, for example)
The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early LifeIf we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.
Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  
Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Risk Failure Strategy

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Strategy Weather

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth Strategy Weather

This insight describes the interrelationship between carbohydrates, fats and proteins.
Each food source is used, stored and processed in different ways.
The balance of our food intake, our genetic characteristics that determine our ability to digest these sources and our activity levels, have a significant impact upon our weight and performance.

Health

Social determinants of health are economic and social conditions that influence the health of people and communities. These conditions are shaped by the amount of money, power, and resources that people have, all of which are influenced by policy choices. Social determinants of health affect factors that are related to health outcomes. Factors related to health outcomes include:

• How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
• How much education a persons obtains
• Being able to get and keep a job
• What kind of work a person does
• Having food or being able to get food (food security)
• Having access to health services and the quality of those services
• Housing status
• How much money a person earns
• Discrimination and social support

Health

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Disease Health Care Health

This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.<br>Factors are based on daily choices.

Health Disease Human Body Systems

SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Disease Health Care Health Ebola

Health Cost Effectiveness Parkrun Inequalities

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.

Disease Health Care Health

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

Disease Health Care Health

This three loop goal-seeking structure identifies the three key influences on managing blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections reduce blood glucose levels, exercise reduces blood glucose levels, and food increases blood glucose levels.  The balance of all three is necessary to manage diabetes.

Diabetes Health

RMIT Assignment MATH2220

Health Optimisation

From NAP Toward Quality Measures for Population Health and the Leading Health Indicators Report with detailed Maternal  Infant and Child Health Example Fig.3-5. Compare with WHO NCD Framework picture and IHI Whole system measures 2.0 (Added Nov 2016)

Health Capability Social Performance Health System Regional Population Framework Program Prevention

SIR model with herd immunity - Metrics by Guy Laekman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

Disease Health Care Health

I will be evaluating the needs of the community in Green Bay, WI in terms of the addiction treatment system. 

• Factors that lead to addiction.  This links to
• Services women have expressed a need for or services that will likely be beneficial based on contributing factors
  
• The services that are currently available at the Women's Empowerment Center and otherwise found in the community
• Assessment of services accessibility, usefulness, and ability for women to locate.  Also included is an assessment of how (women feel) services can be improved.
  

The last category consists of suggestions for improvement of current services or new services to implement.

Health

Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')
See Taking The Pill https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement

Health Conveyor

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model

Disease Health Care Health

Health Society Education

Simple goal seeking loop for type 1 diabetes, describing relationship between blood glucose level, insulin injections, and food consumption, seeking to achieve healthy balanced blood glucose levels in the body.

Diabetes Health

Causal loop diagram illustrating how anxiety may lead to poor performance (R1) and how this reinforcing loop may be counter-balanced by utilizing tools and techniques to manage anxiety (B2).

Psychology Anxiety Health Science

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

Disease Health Care Health SIR