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THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)

Guy Lakeman
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Supply Demand Strategy

  • 5 years 2 months ago

2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals

  • 3 years 11 months ago

BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK

Guy Lakeman
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt Where  • F(t) is the probability of failure  • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) • t is the observed service life (h, for example)
The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early LifeIf we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.
Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  
Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Risk Failure Strategy

  • 3 years 11 months ago

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport

  • 2 months 4 weeks ago

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Strategy Weather

  • 6 years 10 months ago

OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth Strategy Weather

  • 3 years 11 months ago

Body Energy

James
This insight describes the interrelationship between carbohydrates, fats and proteins.
Each food source is used, stored and processed in different ways.
The balance of our food intake, our genetic characteristics that determine our ability to digest these sources and our activity levels, have a significant impact upon our weight and performance.

Health

  • 2 years 4 months ago

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport

  • 2 months 4 weeks ago

Determinates of a healthy population

Alex
Social determinants of health are economic and social conditions that influence the health of people and communities. These conditions are shaped by the amount of money, power, and resources that people have, all of which are influenced by policy choices. Social determinants of health affect factors that are related to health outcomes. Factors related to health outcomes include:
  • How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
  • How much education a persons obtains
  • Being able to get and keep a job
  • What kind of work a person does
  • Having food or being able to get food (food security)
  • Having access to health services and the quality of those services
  • Housing status
  • How much money a person earns
  • Discrimination and social support

Health

  • 5 years 3 weeks ago

Diabetes Management (3 loops)

John Meyer
This three loop goal-seeking structure identifies the three key influences on managing blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections reduce blood glucose levels, exercise reduces blood glucose levels, and food increases blood glucose levels.  The balance of all three is necessary to manage diabetes.

Diabetes Health

  • 4 years 11 months ago

Benign prostatic hypertrophy: cause, symptoms, and treatment

Muhammad Siraj

The prostate is a gland that is part of the male reproductive system, with a hazelnut shape. It is located in front of the rectum and just below the bladder, surrounding the proximal urethra. It consists of two components: a glandular (alveolar tubule) and a supporting connective tissue stroma divided into three zones. A plant that occupies 25%, a transitional one that occupies 5% and a peripheral one that occupies 70%. Benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH) occurs in the area surrounding the urethra (transition zone).

GROWTH: between 10 and 20 years, the highest growth occurs, reaching its normal weight of 20gr. Then it remains the same for 25 more years and then begins to increase again.

•    At 60 years, 50% have histological changes compatible with BPH.

•    At 80 years, 95% have compatible changes.

•    10% of patients debut with acute urinary retention.

•    25% of 80-year-old patients receive treatment for BPH.

The prostatic hypertrophy is an overgrowth of the different components of the normal gland. It is not cancer and does not represent an increased risk of prostate cancer.

Symptom

Less than half of men with BPH have symptoms of the disease. These are due to compression of the urethra by excessive prostate growth and may appear in each patient with very different growths. It is the so-called prostatic syndrome:

•    Slow or delayed onset of urinary flow

•    Decreased caliber and force of the jet

•    Elongation of the emptying

•    Incomplete emptying of the bladder

•    Drip after urinating

•    Need for effort when urinating

In more advanced stages, another class of symptoms, called irritative symptoms, due to the alteration of the bladder function due to the excessive effort made by the bladder to counteract the obstacle to emptying by a urethral obstruction, and may also occur. These symptoms are more difficult to reverse with the treatment of BPH with BPH cure.

•    Sudden and sudden urinary urgency

•    Increased urination frequency

•    Need to urinate 2 or more times per night

•    Incontinence

•    Painful urination or bloody urine (this may indicate an infection)

Left to its natural evolution, the obstruction caused by BPH ends up overcoming the bladder's excessive effort, producing urinary retention that can occasionally lead to a deterioration of renal function.

Signs and exams

Given the high incidence of this problem after 50 years, it is recommended, from this age, regular consultation with the urologist. Generally, in order to arrive at the diagnosis, the clinic presented by the patient and a simple physical examination is sufficient. This consists of a digital rectal examination, where the doctor can feel the size and shape of the prostate gland, revealing an enlarged and firm prostate. This can also help differentiate BPH and prostate cancer, where the gland is of greater consistency. The diagnosis can be completed with other types of tests, including:

•    Tests to quantify the degree of obstruction to the voiding flow.

•    Measurement of the rhythm of the urinary flow.

•    Studies of the flow pressure.

•    Tests to evaluate the bladder and renal function and rule out another associated pathology:

•    Intravenous urography or radiography plus ultrasound.

•    Urinalysis to verify the presence of blood or infection.

•    Urine culture to look for signs of infection.

•    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test in BPH only serves to rule out prostate cancer.

•    Cystoscopy to visualize the prostate and bladder if surgery is needed.

Treatment

The effectiveness of any treatment is measured in two terms: improvement of symptoms and improvement in the analysis of maximum urinary flow.

The prostatic hyperplasia treatment could be divided into three areas:

Medical treatment: alpha-blockers and alpha 5-reductase inhibitors.

Minimally invasive treatment: consist of the placement of prostheses (stents) using endoscopic techniques that allow a greater caliber of the urethra during urination. They are for patients not candidates for more aggressive surgery.

Surgical treatment: radical prostatectomy, TUIP (transurethral incision), TURP (transurethral resection). Most men who undergo this surgery report improvement in the flow of urine and symptoms. The possible complications are impotence, urinary incontinence, retrograde ejaculation (semen that flows in the opposite direction towards the bladder instead of going out through the penis), infertility and urethral stenosis. The percentages of these complications vary depending on the surgical procedure that the patient and the doctor decide is the best.

The choice of the moment of intervention is based on the severity of the symptoms, and their inability to be controlled by medical treatment. The choice of the appropriate technique depends on the size and shape of the prostate. They are objective indications (independent of the symptoms) of surgery:

•    Kidney injury due to obstruction (hydronephrosis)

•    Bladder lithiasis

•    Blood in recurrent urine

•    Urinary retention

•    Recurrent urinary tract infections

In summary, the choice of appropriate treatment, therefore, is based on the severity of the symptoms, the extent to which they affect the individual's lifestyle and the presence of any other medical condition. Treatment options include "await with careful vigilance", lifestyle changes, drug therapies, and surgical methods.

Health

  • 5 months 3 weeks ago

What is better, buttercream or fondant on cake?

kabir hussan
Buttercream cakes are a type of cake that is enjoyed by many people around the world, but you may wonder, what is a buttercream cake? Is it butter or cream? But how does it compare to the ever popular fondant finished cakes?

These cakes are enjoyed for many occasions, for example they are commonly purchased for wedding cakes, baby showers, anniversaries or, most commonly, as a birthday cake. When choosing a type of cake for these events, you first need to decide, do you want buttercream cake or fondant cake? What would you prefer and what would your guests prefer. There are different benefits to both.

If you are confused at this point, then let me explain some of the key difference between the two different types. Frosting is also known as icing, it is a type of cake finish that covers the entire cake in a layer of thick and often coloured sheet of ‘fondant’ which has its own unique almondy flavour, some people love it, some people do not. Its benefit is that it looks smooth and offers the cake a strong structure that can be of assistance when trying to hold together the weight of a multiple layered cake that is often wanted and required for weddings.

Buttercream however is a totally different game. It is often used on naked cakes and it does not cover the whole cake.  Buttercream is made by blending together butter and sugar, it is whipped using a stand mixer, this is compared to fondant which is a combination of water, glycerine and powdered sugar, which is rolled out thinly to create the layer which will be placed over the entire cake.

Gone are the times when royal icing (another name for fondant) are the only options, fondant was used by the royal families of france and england to celebrate their weddings and birthdays. They would be beautiful and hold their shape, and it means that elaborate decorations could be put on display for guests, but the flavour was often lacking in these cakes and it has started to become less popular. The cake trend these days, which is being confronted by cake shops like Passiontree Velvet in Australia, which offers a range of occasion cakes available at all times from many shops. The trend these days is moving towards more naked style and buttercream style cakes, and often they have flowers and floral displays on them. Buttercream has the added benefit that it can hold many different colours and flavours to compliment the actual cake, and often the flavours are going to be popular common ones like chocolate, strawberry, vanilla and passionfruit.

Saying all this, there are benefits to using both. The benefits of using fondant is that is has a smoother and glossier finish, it is easier to control the thickness with the correct rolling technique. The texture is chewy, which to some is a benefit and adds to the experience of eating cake. Fondant is the only type of cake finish which can give you the shiny and pearly white finish which is classic on wedding cakes and lends itself well to being in photographs at those weddings. The fondant is excellent at holding its structure when you are building it up to greater heights and it also puts a seal around the cake to keep in the moisture and allow it to maintain its texture.

Compared to Buttercream, the benefits of using buttercream are that it is less sweet which allows for the flavour details to come through more if it's not just plain vanilla flavour. Al;so the smell is not as artificial and to some people it can be off putting. The buttercream is not as heavy so it does not require as dense cake to hold it up. Buttercream cakes can have light and fluffy sponge which is more enjoyable for the people eating it. It can be flavoured with almost anything and it will greatly benefit the cake.

Health Food Birthdaycake

  • 8 months 1 week ago

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