2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals
- 5 years 1 month ago
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)
Guy Lakeman
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)
Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Supply Demand Strategy
- 6 years 3 months ago
BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK
Guy Lakeman
F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt Where • F(t) is the probability of failure • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) • t is the observed service life (h, for example)
The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.
This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime,
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)
Early LifeIf we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.
Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.
Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.
Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Risk Failure Strategy
- 5 years 1 month ago
2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 3 days ago
FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE
Guy Lakeman
BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Strategy Weather
- 8 years 5 days ago
SIR model with waning immunity
Rosemarie Sadsad
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity
- 7 years 3 months ago
SIR model with herd immunity and isolation
Rosemarie Sadsad
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.
- 7 years 3 months ago
OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE
Guy Lakeman
The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed
The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks
See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)
Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth Strategy Weather
- 5 years 1 month ago
Human Body Systems Efficiency
Jeanette Simenson
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.<br>Factors are based on daily choices.
- 8 years 2 months ago
2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 4 months ago
Body Energy
James
Each food source is used, stored and processed in different ways.
The balance of our food intake, our genetic characteristics that determine our ability to digest these sources and our activity levels, have a significant impact upon our weight and performance.
- 3 years 5 months ago
SIR model with herd immunity
Rosemarie Sadsad
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity
- 7 years 3 months ago
Disease Dynamics - Michelle-Anne Chen
Michelle-Anne Chen
- 6 years 6 months ago
Diabetes Management (3 loops)
John Meyer
- 6 years 2 weeks ago
WORLD2020 to PLANET2020
Guy Lakeman
THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 4 months ago
Determinates of a healthy population
Alex
- How a person develops during the first few years of life (early childhood development)
- How much education a persons obtains
- Being able to get and keep a job
- What kind of work a person does
- Having food or being able to get food (food security)
- Having access to health services and the quality of those services
- Housing status
- How much money a person earns
- Discrimination and social support
- 6 years 2 months ago
Health Outcome Logic Model
Geoff McDonnell ★
Health Capability Social Performance Health System Regional Population Framework Program Prevention Child
- 3 years 2 weeks ago
POPULATION CONTROL
Guy Lakeman
POPULATION CONTROL BASED ON THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
This expanded World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 4 months ago
SIR Disease Propagation Model
Bob Kopp
The number of new infections is proportional to the total number of infected people, the fraction of the population that remains susceptible, and the ratio of the total number of infections per case and the typical time to recover from an infection.
- 10 months 3 weeks ago
SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
Guy Lakeman
SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity
- 6 years 3 months ago
SIR model
Rosemarie Sadsad
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model
- 7 years 3 months ago
Impact of Parkrun on Physical Activity over the life course
Robert Smith
- 4 years 2 months ago
SIR model with waning immunity
Gonzalo Vazquez
A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity
- 2 years 1 month ago
P1: Systemigram
Chieng Luphuyong
- 1 year 11 months ago