This two loop goal-seeking structure identifies two factors to manage blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections and exercise.
This two loop goal-seeking structure identifies two factors to manage blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections and exercise.
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

13 8 months ago
This is a model on how a virus may spread in a population. It is a model that can relatively easily built by students in upper secondary education
This is a model on how a virus may spread in a population. It is a model that can relatively easily built by students in upper secondary education


MEE460-04 Caleb Hemmelgarn  Sarah Hollis  Carson Kizer  Scott Koney  McKenzie Warman
MEE460-04
Caleb Hemmelgarn
Sarah Hollis
Carson Kizer
Scott Koney
McKenzie Warman

Multiple Cause Diagrams (MCDs) can
be used to find solutions to systemic problems. This diagram tries to explore
treatment options that could theoretically be available to a person who has been
diagnosed with a particular type of blepharitis (inflammation of eye lids). This
type of blepharitis often
Multiple Cause Diagrams (MCDs) can be used to find solutions to systemic problems. This diagram tries to explore treatment options that could theoretically be available to a person who has been diagnosed with a particular type of blepharitis (inflammation of eye lids). This type of blepharitis often leads to 'pink eye' and  'dry eye syndrome'. It  is caused by rosacea of the eye lids, a systemic disease which can only be controlled but not cured.  The MCD also assumes that the patient's tear glands do not produce enough tears, which  further complicates his eye condition.  The broken green lines indicate treatment options.Their aim is to weaken or disrupt links that keep the malignant process going.

Hypothetically a person afflicted by this condition could construct a MCD similar to the one shown, based on authoritative information from his ophthalmologist and bonafide medical websites. It could serve to improve  his /her  understand of their condition and the treatment  available. As such, I believe this diagram demonstrates the usefulness of MCDs. 

 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

 SIR model with herd immunity - Metrics by Guy Laekman   A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

SIR model with herd immunity - Metrics by Guy Laekman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

This model shows the relationship between placement to Bourke Hospital and Infection Rate, Recovery rate and release from Bourke Hospital.       Assumptions   This model assumes that:  upper value for Sensitive to get infected is 50 people  upper value for Placed into Bourke hospital is 50 people  u
This model shows the relationship between placement to Bourke Hospital and Infection Rate, Recovery rate and release from Bourke Hospital.  

Assumptions
This model assumes that:
upper value for Sensitive to get infected is 50 people
upper value for Placed into Bourke hospital is 50 people
upper value for Released from Bourke hospital is 50 people

Variables
Infection Rate - can be adjusted upwards or downwards to stimulate infection rate.
Infection Factor - can be adjusted upwards or downwards to stimulate infection rate.
Recovery Rate - can be adjusted upwards or downwards to stimulate infection rate.
Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017.     Current premier version containing Story Steps and text for vincy to update. This is clone of 97129 via Vincy.
Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017. 

Current premier version containing Story Steps and text for vincy to update.
This is clone of 97129 via Vincy.
Ophthalmologist Craig Blackwell described the
'Dry Eye Cycle' in two excellent videos with graphic descriptions. From his
description it becomes clear that the Dry Eye Cycle really consist of two
self-reinforcing feedback loops. I have constructed these feedback loops here because
they help explain
Ophthalmologist Craig Blackwell described the 'Dry Eye Cycle' in two excellent videos with graphic descriptions. From his description it becomes clear that the Dry Eye Cycle really consist of two self-reinforcing feedback loops. I have constructed these feedback loops here because they help explain the cycle, and understanding it may be very useful for suffers of the often debilitating 'dry eye syndrome '. The process usually starts with one of two deficiencies: the oil secreted from oil glands is too thick and does not adequately cover the aqueous film leading to evaporation and dryness or tear glands do not produce enough tears.  Dr. Blackwell stresses the role of inflammation which can lead to the progressive worsening of the condition and  which should be controlled. He suggests various treatments. I highly recommend watching the videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooYcjzNtn58

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwpWKCM31JI

Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')    See Taking The Pill   https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement
Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')

See Taking The Pill 
https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement
Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life
Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, ​Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life
     Description:    
Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania  This model was designed from the SIR
model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19
outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.    Assumptions:    The government policy is triggered when t

Description:

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions:

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters:

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameter: Background disease.

Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

   THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology  2015 article  see also  IM-9115  and SA  IM-1163
Scott Page's Aggregation diagram from Complexity and Sociology 2015 article see also IM-9115 and SA IM-1163
   THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)