This is the base stock and flow diagram I will use to develop a larger system of influencing factors, from health, agri-food systems, and environmental models. Data was taken from UNICEF and UNFPA. Time = 0 starts at 1987.
This is the base stock and flow diagram I will use to develop a larger system of influencing factors, from health, agri-food systems, and environmental models. Data was taken from UNICEF and UNFPA. Time = 0 starts at 1987.
SARS Modelling with SEIR Model. Author: Aulia Nur Fajriyah & Lutfi Andriyanto
SARS Modelling with SEIR Model.
Author: Aulia Nur Fajriyah & Lutfi Andriyanto
5 9 months ago
I will be evaluating the needs of the community in Green Bay, WI in terms of the addiction treatment system.    Factors that lead to addiction.  This links to  Services women have expressed a need for or services that will likely be beneficial based on contributing factors   The services that are cu
I will be evaluating the needs of the community in Green Bay, WI in terms of the addiction treatment system. 
  • Factors that lead to addiction.  This links to
  • Services women have expressed a need for or services that will likely be beneficial based on contributing factors
  • The services that are currently available at the Women's Empowerment Center and otherwise found in the community
  • Assessment of services accessibility, usefulness, and ability for women to locate.  Also included is an assessment of how (women feel) services can be improved.
The last category consists of suggestions for improvement of current services or new services to implement.
First model developed for Senior Design dealing with Healthcare Analytics
First model developed for Senior Design dealing with Healthcare Analytics
This is reproduction of the tutorial exercise 1, Disease Dynamics.
This is reproduction of the tutorial exercise 1, Disease Dynamics.
This insight describes the interrelationship between carbohydrates, fats and proteins.    Each food source is used, stored and processed in different ways.     The balance of our food intake, our genetic characteristics that determine our ability to digest these sources and our activity levels, have
This insight describes the interrelationship between carbohydrates, fats and proteins.

Each food source is used, stored and processed in different ways.

The balance of our food intake, our genetic characteristics that determine our ability to digest these sources and our activity levels, have a significant impact upon our weight and performance.
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

   INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE IMPACT ON POLLUTION AND RESOURCES     THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMA

INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE IMPACT ON POLLUTION AND RESOURCES THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (health and temporarily immune).

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (health and temporarily immune).

Agent based Modeling Simulation for Pandemic COVID-19 Disease
Agent based Modeling Simulation for Pandemic COVID-19 Disease
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

   POPULATION CONTROL BASED ON THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE

POPULATION CONTROL BASED ON THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

This expanded World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')    See Taking The Pill   https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement
Example of Configurable Conveyor Pattern (vectorized conveyor with multiple 'conveyor speeds')

See Taking The Pill 
https://getsatisfaction.com/insightmaker/topics/delay-in-taking-the-pill for the problem statement
Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
  Relationships among different players in Bourke       This complex system is used to evaluate the relationships among
different players in Bourke. This diagram show flows to which can be beneficial
to certain aspects of the relationship or damaging in some social aspects among
the different player
Relationships among different players in Bourke

This complex system is used to evaluate the relationships among different players in Bourke. This diagram show flows to which can be beneficial to certain aspects of the relationship or damaging in some social aspects among the different players.the social impacts have significant factors which include the following:

 

-  the amount of police force that are required to protect citizen

- the crime levels of the place that are associated

-  the sports membership that they play for

- The community development of the individual

- the relationships that the individual has

- the social class that the individual is associated with

 

some of the following characteristic have following relations that factor in greatly for either positive and negative values. This diagram has a gradual slope of increase or decrease depending on the type of variable. The police force and crime levels of crime are opposed to one another because Bourke should be a safe place for citizens to live in. The sports and community development have a positive relation that contributes to the interest of both sport and community. Lastly the relationship and social class are opposed to one another as people with a higher social class will mean less people are associated in it. The diagram is supposed to show the gradual increase or decrease of the variables in the Complex system.

 

 

Police 

police factor in the amount of crime or the chances of crime to occur. Police force are to protect and serve the community and make Bourke a safe place for citizens.

 

 

Crime

Crime is associated with all the problems that involve damaging the community and also factor on the amount of police that are in duty. If more crime increases so does the police force.

 

 

Crime versus police force:

 Crime and police force have factors that play an important role to manage and control the levels of crime that occur in Bourke. No matter how much crime occurs police always overcome the adversity to stop the amount of crime and is a gradual raise which would minimise the amount of crime from occurring from Bourke.

 

Sports membership

Sports membership involves the community involvement in participating in the sport. Sports are played to increase the interest of people who have a strong connection with the community of Bourke.

 

 

 

Community Development

Community development involves the community in supporting sports teams. Community development includes people going for their local team and supporting which also effects people who are interested in playing the sport.

 

 

 

Sports membership versus Community development

Sports and community both contain a positive effect among individuals in the town. As more people have a strong relationship between the community development this then factors the individual in participating in the sport itself.

 

 

 

Relationships

Relationships are the amount of friends and family that an individual has. Relationships are definitely very important to build a strong sense of belonging to the community which can involve participating towards the community and sport.

 

Social Class

social class is the division of society or economical class that an individual is in. A higher social class means you are associated with different relationships and the interest that are associated in the social class.

 

Relationship versus Social Class:

 

Relationships are effected by the social class that they are associated with. The higher the social class the less amount of relationships you are associated with due to higher social class having less people in higher social classes.

 

 

 

Initial Values:

 

Relationships: 125

Social class: 50

Crime :50

police force: 75

community development: 300

Sports membership: 125


Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.