Kingdon Theory of Streams in Policy
Geoff McDonnell ★
John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.
- 5 years 2 months ago
2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals
- 5 years 2 months ago
The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman
Guy Lakeman
The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)
A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
If mu = 0 and sigma = 1
If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is nowBUT Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing
85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!
Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it
Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.
Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.
updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago
MATHS Statistics Physics Science Ecology Climate Weather Intelligence Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy
- 11 months 3 weeks ago
Why Nations Fail
Gene Bellinger
Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
- 2 years 8 months ago
2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 1 month ago
The Republican Party, Neoliberalism and Climate change Denial
Hanns-Jürgen Hodann
- 4 years 1 month ago
Managing Mess
Geoff McDonnell ★
Reliability Policy Management Performance Behavior Politics Culture Safety Resilience Multiscale Complexity Decision Making
- 2 years 7 months ago
Service Delivery Governance Constraints
Geoff McDonnell ★
Can you close the loops on cause and effect? Can you make it relevant to your own regional services? Could this be put into a CMO Framework IM-1713?
Shaping Our Healthier Futures Governance Services Politics Regional
- 3 years 11 months ago
The Art of the State
Geoff McDonnell ★
Reliability Policy Politics Management Performance Behavior Culture Safety Resilience Grid Group
- 4 years 4 months ago
2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 6 months ago
The Passions and the Interests
Geoff McDonnell ★
Culture Motivation Behavior Politics Economics History Ideas Book Hirschman
- 5 years 9 months ago
The Great Transformation
Geoff McDonnell ★
- 1 year 1 month ago
WORLD2020 to PLANET2020
Guy Lakeman
THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 5 months ago
Neoliberalism and health policy
Geoff McDonnell ★
Health Care Economics Policy Politics Neoliberal Control Governance
- 3 years 5 months ago
Shifting involvements
Geoff McDonnell ★
- 3 years 8 months ago
POPULATION CONTROL
Guy Lakeman
POPULATION CONTROL BASED ON THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
This expanded World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDEDUse the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Food Energy Nuclear Solar Resource Graphene Silicene Transport
- 1 year 6 months ago
Political Economy of Health Services
Geoff McDonnell ★
Health Care Services Politics Culture Governance Funding Control Regional
- 4 years 6 months ago
S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman
Guy Lakeman
Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers
This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model
The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:
- a positive integer 'shape'
- a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.
MATHS Statistics Physics Science Ecology Climate Weather Intelligence Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy Erlang
- 11 months 3 weeks ago
Capitalism
Geoff McDonnell ★
Economics Politics Society Organization Capital Concept Performance Hodgson Institutional
- 1 year 7 months ago
The Economics of JK Galbraith
Geoff McDonnell ★
- 1 year 10 months ago
Reflexive Governance
Geoff McDonnell ★
Politics Adaptive Management and Transition Management
Health Care Organization Learning Governance Resilience Politics
- 6 years 3 months ago
Organising and Disorganising
Geoff McDonnell ★
Culture Grid Group Social Capability Organization Politics Choice Governance Panarchy
- 4 years 3 months ago
Social Justice, Epidemiology and Health Inequalities
Geoff McDonnell ★
Health Care Social Determinants Inequality Stress ATSI SDOH Neoliberal Politics Economics Policy Justice Health Disparities Value Epidemiology Marmot Suicide Child Development
- 3 years 1 month ago
Killing the Host
Geoff McDonnell ★
Finance Neoliberal Economics Politics Macroeconomics Monetary
- 4 years 10 months ago