John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book  Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies . Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.
Health Care Policy Politics

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

Kingdon Theory of Streams in Policy
Geoff McDonnell
3
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).   The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussi
Physics Intelligence Weather Climate Ecology Science Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Statistics Curve Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy MATHS
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode). 

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :) 

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now
BUT 
Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing


85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives.   National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy:  Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.
The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.


updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman
Guy Lakeman
8
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Jobs Resources Strategy Engineering Technology Sea Economics Ocean Science Mortality Animals Demographics Rural Industrial Urban Services Labor Land Death Fish Population Growth Population Weather Politics Failure Climate Yield Regeneration Fertility Health Pollution Environment Plants Lifetime

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
52
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a gre
Society Roam Economics History Nations Fail Politics
Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.
Why Nations Fail
Gene Bellinger
9
WIP based on Emery Roe's 2013  book . See also Dynamics in Action  IM-3239  for more on behavior and The Art of the State  IM-11962  for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory
Reliability Resilience Multiscale Decision Making Complexity Politics Safety Policy Management Performance Culture Behavior
WIP based on Emery Roe's 2013 book. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory
Managing Mess
Geoff McDonnell
In fairness it is not just the Republican Party that believes in Neoliberalism, but it seems to adhere to the most puritan form of it. The principal tenets of Neoliberalism, free and unfettered markets and tight fiscal control are diametrically opposed to what is needed to fight climate change and i
Climate Politics Neoliberlaism
In fairness it is not just the Republican Party that believes in Neoliberalism, but it seems to adhere to the most puritan form of it. The principal tenets of Neoliberalism, free and unfettered markets and tight fiscal control are diametrically opposed to what is needed to fight climate change and its effects. Such policies involve massive fiscal spending and government investment in new infrastructure and renewable energy.  They  also involve wide ranging regulation of the private sector,  especially restrictions on the fossil fuel industry. Accepting the reality of man-made climate change and the policies needed to counter it really amounts to admitting that Neoliberalism has failed. The CLD tries to illustrate the self-reinforcing dynamic that may have led the leaders of the Republican Party to deny climate change. Of course, there are also other factors involved, such as party loyalty, internal pressure to conform, cognitive dissonance and probably many more. Please also have a look at Insight 66858 which is related to this subject.

The Republican Party, Neoliberalism and Climate change Denial
Hanns-Jürgen Hodann
From  ODI paper  . Political constraints and perverse incentives that make development plans not implementable and not implemented. See also Managing health service use  IM-17566 Can you close the loops on cause and effect? Can you make it relevant to your own regional services? Could this be put i
Services Regional Politics Governance Shaping Our Healthier Futures
From ODI paper . Political constraints and perverse incentives that make development plans not implementable and not implemented. See also Managing health service use IM-17566
Can you close the loops on cause and effect? Can you make it relevant to your own regional services? Could this be put into a CMO Framework IM-1713?
Service Delivery Governance Constraints
Geoff McDonnell
4
Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's  Book
Ideas Politics Economics Culture Motivation History Hirschman Book Behavior
Brief Summary of Albert O Hirschman's Book
The Passions and the Interests
Geoff McDonnell
Grid-Group Culture applied to Public Management WIP based on Christopher Hood's 1998 book. plus excerpts from Schwartz and Thompson's 1990 Book Divided we stand. See also Managing Mess IM-11581  and FourCultures Blog  and  Wikipedia Cultural Theory of Risk
Group Management Performance Behavior Culture Safety Resilience Grid Politics Reliability Policy
Grid-Group Culture applied to Public Management WIP based on Christopher Hood's 1998 book. plus excerpts from Schwartz and Thompson's 1990 Book Divided we stand. See also Managing Mess IM-11581 and FourCultures Blog and Wikipedia Cultural Theory of Risk
The Art of the State
Geoff McDonnell
5 months ago
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER REL
Drought Transport Silicene Graphene Resource Solar Nuclear Energy Food Agriculture Cyclone Tornado Typhoon Hurricane Loss Flood Animals Plants Fish Sea Ocean Yield Regeneration Pollution Lifetime Rural Industrial Urban Labor Jobs Land Resources Services Health Fertility Politics Economics Strategy Engineering Technology Science Mortality Death Failure Climate Weather Population Population Growth Demographics Environment

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS 

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
24
WIP based on Health Research Policy and Systems  Paper
Health Care Resources Politics Allocation
WIP based on Health Research Policy and Systems Paper
Cure Crowding Out Prevention
Geoff McDonnell
A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006  paper   Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See  IM-57161  for extension
Culture Governance Funding Control Health Care Regional Services Politics
A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paper Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See IM-57161 for extension
Political Economy of Health Services
Geoff McDonnell
5
​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model The  Erlang distribution  is a two parameter family of continuous  probability dis
Curve Statistics Physics Science Ecology Climate Weather Intelligence Education Probability Density Function Normal Bell Gaussian Distribution Democracy Voting Politics Policy Erlang MATHS
​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

  • a positive integer 'shape' 
  • a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman
Guy Lakeman
4
WIP Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's  ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures  on Social Justice and the Health Gap See  US Data website  for data and AIHW website  for concepts. See also  IM-83417 Marmot Essay 2017
Policy SDOH Politics Suicide Development Justice Neoliberal ATSI Health Care Health Disparities Social Stress Child Value Economics Determinants Inequality
WIP Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's  ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap See US Data website for data and AIHW website for concepts. See also IM-83417 Marmot Essay 2017
Social Justice and the Health Gap
Geoff McDonnell
Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and  IM-11581  Managing mess
Resilience Panarchy Governance Politics Health Care Policy Behavior
Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and IM-11581 Managing mess
Institutional adaptive cycles
Geoff McDonnell
Book summary WIP
Politics Organization Society Economics
Book summary WIP
The Economics of JK Galbraith
Geoff McDonnell
Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.
Economics Sociology Politics Culture Book Hirschman
Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.
Shifting involvements
Geoff McDonnell
3
Extended from  Im-628  Supply and demand by adding control folder. See also Managing Health Services Use  IM-17566 Based on JHPPL 2015  article  Note here the framing is an economic exchange rather than a public service (needs-services-resources) or capabilities
Governance Politics Control Health Care Neoliberal Economics Policy
Extended from Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.
See also Managing Health Services Use IM-17566
Based on JHPPL 2015 article Note here the framing is an economic exchange rather than a public service (needs-services-resources) or capabilities
Neoliberalism and health policy
Geoff McDonnell
Clone of IM-24317  for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 and contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on  JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue  articles, esp  Glied article  (paywalled) Backed up generic version at  IM-59166
Services SDOH Regional Control Funding Governance Culture Politics Mental Health Health Care
Clone of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 and contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied article (paywalled) Backed up generic version at IM-59166
Political Economy of Mental Health Services
Geoff McDonnell
From Political Compass website showing political spectrum of Australian political parties contesting Federal elections in 2007-2019
Election Australia Politics
From Political Compass website showing political spectrum of Australian political parties contesting Federal elections in 2007-2019
Political Parties Compass at Federal Elections Australia
Geoff McDonnell
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's  Book  Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
Finance Neoliberal Monetary Macroeconomics Politics Economics
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's Book Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
Killing the Host
Geoff McDonnell
3
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION. WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R
Death Strategy Engineering Technology Science Mortality Energy Failure Climate Economics Weather Politics Fertility Population Population Growth Demographics Environment Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Fish Plants Animals Flood Drought Loss Hurricane Typhoon Tornado Cyclone Agriculture Transport Silicene Graphene Resource Solar Food Nuclear

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Guy Lakeman
10
Expansion of IM-24317  for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 . See also  IM-57110  contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied
Regional Mental Health Governance Health Care Funding Services Control Culture Politics
Expansion of IM-24317 for adding other funding insights Im-633 and 636 . See also IM-57110 contrasting economic drivers of mental health with other health care based on JHPPL David Mechanic 2016 issue articles, esp Glied
Political Economy of Health Services 2
Geoff McDonnell
Politics Adaptive Management and Transition Management
Governance Resilience Health Care Organization Learning Politics

Politics Adaptive Management and Transition Management

Reflexive Governance
Geoff McDonnell