Policy | Insight Maker

John Kingdon's Theory of Streams in the politics of the policy process. From the book Kingdon, John (1999) Agendas Alternatives and Public Policies. Longman New York. Click on View Story at the bottom left.

Kingdon Theory of Streams in Policy

Geoff McDonnell

3

The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now

BUT

Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing

85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.

The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.

updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago

The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

8

Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D. Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955

Policy Resistance

Geoff McDonnell

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Version 10: Hattie Calibrated Education Scenario Tool Capability Demonstration

Robert L. Brown

18

WIP based on Emery Roe's 2013 book. See also Dynamics in Action IM-3239 for more on behavior and The Art of the State IM-11962 for more on Grid-Group Cultural Theory

Managing Mess

Geoff McDonnell

Services planning for people with intellectual disability concept map. Stock and FLow model is Insight 668 and RIch Picture is Insight 746

Intellectual Disability Services Concept Map

Geoff McDonnell

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

Swamping Insight

Geoff McDonnell

5

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Urban Dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

16 3 months ago

From PLOS One Article April 2012 Worni, M et al System Dynamics to Model the Unintended Consequences of Denying Payment for Venous Thromboembolism after Total Knee Arthroplasty

Payment Policy Unintended Consequences

Geoff McDonnell

Grid-Group Culture applied to Public Management WIP based on Christopher Hood's 1998 book. plus excerpts from Schwartz and Thompson's 1990 Book Divided we stand. See also Managing Mess IM-11581 and FourCultures Blog and Wikipedia Cultural Theory of Risk

The Art of the State

Geoff McDonnell

5 months ago

Base del modelo territorial de Ciudad Hermosa

Una adaptación del URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process at System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) (click here to view full paper).

Ejercicio de simulación

Carlos Sandoval

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools - spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible!

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

a positive integer 'shape'
a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

4

WIP Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap See US Data website for data and AIHW website for concepts. See also IM-83417 Marmot Essay 2017

Social Justice and the Health Gap

Geoff McDonnell

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. This is a minimal model of the insights from the more detailed modelling project described in Monograph pdf

Methadone Treatment Dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people. See IM-1012 for a simpler version

Aged Care and Hospital Flows

Geoff McDonnell

4

Based on Gunderson Holling and Light. Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions book Columbia University Press 1995. esp Fig 12.1 p499 Table 12.1 p 502 and FIg 12.4 p 521 and IM-11581 Managing mess

Institutional adaptive cycles

Geoff McDonnell

Extended from Im-628 Supply and demand by adding control folder.

See also Managing Health Services Use IM-17566

Based on JHPPL 2015 article Note here the framing is an economic exchange rather than a public service (needs-services-resources) or capabilities

Neoliberalism and health policy

Geoff McDonnell

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

WIP based on Mascia2017 Analyzing conservation strategies article and other mostly private insights. A more detailed form of structure agency IM-1163

Intervention Types Mechanisms and Effects

Geoff McDonnell

This model blends insights from several research based sources to establish an initial capture or causal hypothesis. The initial, presumed structures and influences captures the dominant research-reported threads, elements and dynamics as relate to radicalization and, conversely: legitimization & state stability.

Dynamics of Radicalization

Robert L. Brown

Structural determinants of cross functional planning success from Oliva and watson 2007 working paper pdf on supply chain planning published in Journal of operations management in 2011 research gate paper

Policy Models