Policy | Insight Maker

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

a positive integer 'shape'
a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

Clone of S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Nilo Guimaraes

Rich Picture Causal Loop Diagram of Quality and Size Tradeoffs in Cared Accommodation

Care Accommodation CLD

Geoff McDonnell

A structure used in childhood obesity intervention mechanisms, currently a map WIP which can be enhanced into a simulation

Program Engagement and Behaviour Change Mechanisms

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Summary of Science 2019 article Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation

Deliberation without polarization

Geoff McDonnell

Clone of Clone of Antisocial behavior and aversive policy reactions

Paul van geert

Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution

Andy Windy

7

WIP ideas for group model building representation

Alcohol harms overview NSW

Geoff McDonnell

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Urban Dynamics

sub cribed

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Clone of Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Taylor Nicole Koontz

WIP integrating Epidemiology Systems Science and Policy making, mainly based on books and AJE articles by Keyes and Galea

Health Systems Science Processes and Principles

Geoff McDonnell

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. Monograph pdf

Clone of Methadone Treatment Dynamics

Ray Madachy

The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :)

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now

BUT

Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing

85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy: Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.

The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.

updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago

Clone of Clone of The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve Gaussian Distribution by Guy Lakeman

Quentin Saulter

This model represents the core (more connected) assumptions of the proposed energy bill HR 4286

Core of HR4286

Steve Wallis

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Clone of Version 6A: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom

Hal Greenwald

4

WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization

Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism

Geoff McDonnell

There have now been a number of scientific research papers that confirm that an increase in the access to firearms leads to an increase of gun violence. Here is what one research paper concluded:

''Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.''

In 2011 there were 11, 101 people that died because of gun violence in the US. However, during the same period only 17 died from acts of terrorism. The Casual Loop Diagram tries to illustrate the process and dynamic that could be behind this unacceptably high number of victims. Is there not a moral dimension to this horrific number of victims that demands immediate action to disrupt this vicious reinforcing circle?

URL of the study:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/

GUNS LEAD TO GUN VIOLENCE

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people.

Clone of Aged Care and Hospital Flows

Jeff Foote

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Model OTHER: All Components Added + Spending to Performance

Robert L. Brown

MODERN MONETARY THEORY SHOWS HOW FULL EMPLOYMENT CAN BE ACHIEVED!

POTENTIAL GDP is a level of overall spending - by the government and the non-government sector - at which there is full employment. If the economy is not operating at its potential, then the private sector has failed to invested or spend enough to generate the necessary growth nor has income from net exports contributed enough. This only leaves the government to close the spending gap. Conceptually, a government disposing of its own freely floating currency could act using two powerful tools - spending in excess of tax revenue, and taxation - to ensure that the gap between the actual economic activity and potential GDP is quickly closed. Achieving the full employment that prevailed for 30 years between 1945 and 1975 in western economies is definitely possible!

MANAGING FULL EMPLOYMENT

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

WIP Summary of Levin Roberts and Hirsch 1975 book subtitled A Computer-Aided Search for Heroin Policy using System Dynamics

The Persistent Poppy

Geoff McDonnell

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Clone of Clone of Version 6B: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom

Robert L. Brown