Policy | Insight Maker

Antisocial behavior and aversive policy reactions

Paul van geert

3

WIP to show some relevant CLDs

Alcohol CLD Feedbacks

Geoff McDonnell

The transitions from home to supported accommodation for people with Intellectual Disability (ID) from birth to death in order to plan future services as they survive longer.

Intellectual Disability Accommodation

Geoff McDonnell

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

Clone of Urban Dynamics

Erkki Laitila

Services planning for people with intellectual disability concept map. Stock and FLow model is Insight 668 and RIch Picture is Insight 746

Intellectual Disability Services Concept Map

Geoff McDonnell

Go to Gene Bellinger's insight version with video link This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 abstract Conference version here

Swamping Insight

Geoff McDonnell

5

Multilevel context mechanisms and outcomes for hospital infection control

Hospital Infection Factors Levels

Geoff McDonnell

From PLOS One Article April 2012 Worni, M et al System Dynamics to Model the Unintended Consequences of Denying Payment for Venous Thromboembolism after Total Knee Arthroplasty

Payment Policy Unintended Consequences

Geoff McDonnell

WIP based on Mascia2017 Analyzing conservation strategies article and other mostly private insights. A more detailed form of structure agency IM-1163

Intervention Types Mechanisms and Effects

Geoff McDonnell

3

This version 8B of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model. A net Benefit ROI has been added. The Compare results feature allows comparison of alternative intervention portfolios. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further developed and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Version 8B: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom-LEA-Spending

Robert L. Brown

26

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram By Guy Lakeman

Climate, Weather, Ecology, Economics, Population, Welfare, Energy, Policy, CO2, Carbon Cycle, GHG (green house gasses, combined effects)

As general population is composed of 85% with an education level of a 12 grader or less (a 17 year old), a simple block of components concerning the health of the planet needs to be broken down into simple blocks.

Perhaps this picture will show the basics on which to vote for a sustained healthy future

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives. National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Climate Sector Boundary Diagram of Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

3

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

a positive integer 'shape'
a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Guy Lakeman

6

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Clone of Version 6A: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom

Hal Greenwald

4

Summary of Lancet March 2023 Series See also Structure Agency Insight

Commercial Determinants of Health

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Summary of Levin Roberts and Hirsch 1975 book subtitled A Computer-Aided Search for Heroin Policy using System Dynamics

The Persistent Poppy

Geoff McDonnell

last week

Despite a mature field of inquiry, frustrated educational policy makers face a crisis characterized by little to no clear research-based guidance and significant budget limitations -- in the face of too often marginal or unexpectedly deleterious achievement impacts. As such, education performance has been acknowledged as a complex system and a general call in the literature for causal models has been sounded. This modeling effort represents a strident first step in the development of an evidence-based causal hypothesis: an hypothesis that captures the widely acknowledged complex interactions and multitude of cited influencing factors. This non-piecemeal, causal, reflection of extant knowledge engages a neuro-cognitive definition of students. Through capture of complex dynamics, it enables comparison of different mixes of interventions to estimate net academic achievement impact for the lifetime of a single cohort of students. Results nominally capture counter-intuitive unintended consequences: consequences that too often render policy interventions effete. Results are indexed on Hattie Effect Sizes, but rely on research identified causal mechanisms for effect propagation. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes of impact have been roughly adjusted to Hattie Ranking Standards (calibration): a non-causal evidence source. This is a demonstration model and seeks to exemplify content that would be engaged in a full or sufficient model development effort. Budget & time constraints required significant simplifying assumptions. These assumptions mitigate both the completeness & accuracy of the outputs. Features serve to symbolize & illustrate the value and benefits of causal modeling as a performance tool.

Clone of Version 10: Yolande & HAL Formula Clean up

Robert L. Brown

There have now been a number of scientific research papers that confirm that an increase in the access to firearms leads to an increase of gun violence. Here is what one research paper concluded:

''Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%.''

In 2011 there were 11, 101 people that died because of gun violence in the US. However, during the same period only 17 died from acts of terrorism. The Casual Loop Diagram tries to illustrate the process and dynamic that could be behind this unacceptably high number of victims. Is there not a moral dimension to this horrific number of victims that demands immediate action to disrupt this vicious reinforcing circle?

URL of the study:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3828709/

GUNS LEAD TO GUN VIOLENCE

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people.

Clone of Aged Care and Hospital Flows

Jeff Foote

Example from David Lane's Systems Research 2016 article abstract

Unintended effects of cutting wages

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Based on Just Justice book from croakey website .to be compared with oid 2016 report insight on overcoming indigenous disadvantage

Just Justice tackling Aboriginal Over-Incarceration

Geoff McDonnell

Five Information Filters and Bounded Rationality affecting Policy Action from Fig 7.12 p210 John Morecroft's Book 2007 Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

Clone of Bounded Rationality

David

Five Information Filters and Bounded Rationality affecting Policy Action from Fig 7.12 p210 John Morecroft's Book 2007 Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

Bounded Rationality

Geoff McDonnell

Clone of Plastic Pollution Solution Revolution

Pascal Dubois

This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Clone of Clone of Version 6B: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom

Robert L. Brown

Policy Models