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Age of companies in S&P500

Pradeesh Kumar

​This model attempts to understand the behavior of average lifetime of companies in the S&P500 index. The reference mode for the model is a graph available at this link: https://static-cdn.blinkist.com/ebooks/Blinkracy-Blinkist.pdf (page 5) which was discussed in the System Thinking World Discussion forum.

Mergers & Acquisitions can be one of the reasons for older companies to be replaced with newer companies in the Index. With M&A of older companies, the empty slots are taken over by newer companies. However, overtime, these new companies themselves become old. With steady M&A, the stock of older companies decreases and stock of newer companies increases. The result is that average age of the companies in the S&P Index decreases.

The oscillations in the diagram, according to me, is due to oscillations in the M&A activity.

There are two negative feedback loops in the model. (1) As stock of new companies increases, the number of companies getting older increases which in turn decreases the stock. (2) As M&A increases, stock of older companies decreases which in turn decreases M&A activities.

Limits of the model

The model does not consider factors other than M&A in the increase in number of new companies in the Index. New companies themselves may have exceptional performance which will result in their inclusion in the Index. Changes in technology for example Information Technology can usher in new companies.

Assumptions

1. It is assumed that M&A results in addition of new companies to the Index. There could be other older companies too, which given the opportunity, can move into the Index. Emergence of new technologies brings in new companies.

Business System Dynamics

  • 1 year 11 months ago

To Be Business and Technology Architecture

Lisa Martinez
​Purpose
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.  


BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE 

5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.  

  • Aligns to APQC Process Framework
  • Aligns to Principles in ISO 9001, 26000 and 27001 

ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE 
Aligns Zachman Framework Enterprise and Business Architecture with Executive and Leaders from a business management level across any organization.  

A method in which to align and benchmark any organization or agency, with the system(s) logic required from Architects in Row 3, to enable Row 4 engineers who need to supply physics. 


Semantic
Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.  



Business Technology Quality 5 Capability Model Application As Is To Be Enterprise And Business Architecture

  • 2 years 3 months ago

Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Kishau Rogers
Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

  • 6 months 2 weeks ago

Simple Retail Sector (tweaked)

Ash Moran
Original (more DYNAMO-like) version is here: http://insightmaker.com/insight/14464

The Simple Retail Sector model from Section 1.7 of DYNAMO User's Manual by Alexander L Pugh III, which is adapted from one from Industrial Dynamics by Jay Forrester.
http://www.amazon.com/DYNAMO-Manual-Edition-System-Dynamics/dp/0262660296 (I bought the 5th edition without realising there was a later one, hopefully it's still the same model in there.)

DYNAMO Retail Business

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Seeing the forest for the trees example

Stanton Attree
This is a model which attempts to replicate a simple reinforcing loop described by Dennis Sherwood on page 75-87 of his book 'Seeing the forest for the trees - a manager's guide to applying systems thinking.

This is not a realistic model but I just wanted to reproduce it as practice of implementing causal loop models.

www.stantonattree.com

Dennis Sherwood Business Reinforcing Loop Seeing The Forest For The Trees A Managers Guide Applying Systems Thinking.www.stantonattree.com

  • 6 months 2 weeks ago

Simple Retail Sector

Ash Moran
The Simple Retail Sector model from Section 1.7 of DYNAMO User's Manual by Alexander L Pugh III, which is adapted from one from Industrial Dynamics by Jay Forrester.
http://www.amazon.com/DYNAMO-Manual-Edition-System-Dynamics/dp/0262660296 (I bought the 5th edition without realising there was a later one, hopefully it's still the same model in there.)

A tweaked version with slightly more explicit stocks is here: http://insightmaker.com/insight/14467

DYNAMO Retail Business

  • 2 years 11 months ago

To Be Business and Technology Architecture

Lisa Marie Martinez

​Purpose
Enables the different components in the 5 capability model in a visual manner for Enterprise and Business Architecture stakeholders.  

5 Capability Model
The 5 capability model has many stock and flow children which each organization will need to model based on their current state.  

Semantic

Getting terms to align to the generic objects can be a trying task, unless you simply list the stakeholders "semantic" term below the stakeholder in the presentation layer by order shown in the business process management section above the capability management group.  



Business Technology Quality 5 Capability Model Application As Is To Be Enterprise And Business Architecture

  • 3 years 11 months ago

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