Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4




Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year
Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median
for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]
for £ use  0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

Two loop structure which reflects the reinforcing effects of profits/investment, as well as profits/employee retention.

Business Research Sales Commissions Retention

Causal Loop Diagram Product Development Market Profit Revenue Sales

This model gives an insight in the Study Book sales of Bol.com. Bol.com provides, besides of the B2C online business model, selling new books from suppliers to their customers, also a C2C online business model. This gives a customer the opportunity to sell their own books to other customers of Bol.com via Bol.com's website, by simply filling in the ISBN of the book on their second hand book website. The consumer pays a (relatively small) fee to bol.com for each book sold successfully. The payment part is handled by Bol.com, but the shipment has to be done by the customer (seller) itself. This model gives an insight of this process.

Sales Second Hand Books Finance Logistics

Free to air TV channels mostly receive income from sales of advertising. Advertising inventory gains value from TV channel ratings, that are created by high quality content. High quality content is created with investments and content promotion increases content awareness, thus increases TV channel appeal.
Advertising and promotion inventories share same space that is left after program is set up.
More over marketing has targets to increase TV channel appeal.Sales department has targets to increase sales.To make things more complicated program promos can be sold to have promotions.
What interactions arise in this situation?What effects what?Where do we have management point?
Situation and questions gave impulse for following CLD.

TV Marketing Sales Content Inventory

Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.

Sales Growth Marketing

Salespipeline, systemisch dargestellt!

Salespipeline Verkaufstrichter Sales Salesefunnel

What happens when the market get saturated?

Tragedy Of The Commons Sales Limited Markets

Sales

​Dieses Modell soll aufzeigen, wie sich ein neues Produkt auf das Kundenverhalten auswirkt. Vorteil von Paketen für z.B. eine Bank ist es, dass die Kunden egal welche Produkte sie haben, immer gleich viel bezahlen und somit die Kosten einfacher Berechnet werden können.

Im Weiteren ist die Administration von einem standarisierten Paket einfacher und günstiger, als die Administration der einzelnen Produkte.

Im Modell kann berechnet werden, wie sich die Attraktivität des Paketes gegenüber den Einzelprodukten (in diesem einfachen Modell nur über den Preis definiert) auf das Wechselverhalten der Kunden auswirkt.

Finance Banking Sales

Salespipeline, systemisch dargestellt!

Salespipeline Verkaufstrichter Sales Salesefunnel

A basic model that shows the progress of a lead through several selling stages.  Leads proceed through fixed time periods (conveyors) but with adjustable probability of progress to closure.

Sales Pipeline

Simple goal-seeking loop to explain influences to achieve sold-out event (i.e. all seats are filled).

Event Planning Sales Promotion

在提升銷售業績的過程中,分析增強環路與調節環路:)
[增強環路1]:為了提升營業額,而投入更多行銷費用,品牌知名度上升,收入也持續增加 :)) 
[調節環路1]:當行銷支出越多時,會使產品的利潤下滑,也降低了整體銷售額能賺到的利潤!
[調節環路2]: 為了衝業績,工作時間就必須拉長,壓力變大導致工作效率下降而成長幅度趨緩! 

Sales Marketing Working Efficiency

A simple model of how leads progress to close and installation in order to help identify inflection points where demand exceeds resources and creates installation backlog.

Sales Support

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Add in MCI model with price and advertising effect

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

An attempt to model sales in a services company

Sales

Showing the growth obstacles and opportunities.

Sales

Two loop structure which reflects the reinforcing effects of profits/investment, as well as profits/employee retention.

Business Research Sales Commissions Retention

Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.

Sales Growth Marketing

modelēšanas kursam

Marketing Sales Production

​Dieses Modell soll aufzeigen, wie sich ein neues Produkt auf das Kundenverhalten auswirkt. Vorteil von Paketen für z.B. eine Bank ist es, dass die Kunden egal welche Produkte sie haben, immer gleich viel bezahlen und somit die Kosten einfacher Berechnet werden können.

Im Weiteren ist die Administration von einem standarisierten Paket einfacher und günstiger, als die Administration der einzelnen Produkte.

Im Modell kann berechnet werden, wie sich die Attraktivität des Paketes gegenüber den Einzelprodukten (in diesem einfachen Modell nur über den Preis definiert) auf das Wechselverhalten der Kunden auswirkt.

Finance Banking Sales

Sales