Sales | Insight Maker

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Kishau Rogers

15

Two loop structure which reflects the reinforcing effects of profits/investment, as well as profits/employee retention.

Business Growth and Stability

John Meyer

6

A basic model that shows the progress of a lead through several selling stages. Leads proceed through fixed time periods (conveyors) but with adjustable probability of progress to closure.

Sales Pipeline

Robert Koshinskie

This model gives an insight in the Study Book sales of Bol.com. Bol.com provides, besides of the B2C online business model, selling new books from suppliers to their customers, also a C2C online business model. This gives a customer the opportunity to sell their own books to other customers of Bol.com via Bol.com's website, by simply filling in the ISBN of the book on their second hand book website. The consumer pays a (relatively small) fee to bol.com for each book sold successfully. The payment part is handled by Bol.com, but the shipment has to be done by the customer (seller) itself. This model gives an insight of this process.

Bol.com's Study Book Sales in The Netherlands

Wouter van der Does

Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.

Simple Market Saturation

Robert Koshinskie

3

Two loop structure which reflects the reinforcing effects of profits/investment, as well as profits/employee retention.

General Business Model Basics

Greg Stevenson

Dieses Modell soll aufzeigen, wie sich ein neues Produkt auf das Kundenverhalten auswirkt. Vorteil von Paketen für z.B. eine Bank ist es, dass die Kunden egal welche Produkte sie haben, immer gleich viel bezahlen und somit die Kosten einfacher Berechnet werden können.

Im Weiteren ist die Administration von einem standarisierten Paket einfacher und günstiger, als die Administration der einzelnen Produkte.

Im Modell kann berechnet werden, wie sich die Attraktivität des Paketes gegenüber den Einzelprodukten (in diesem einfachen Modell nur über den Preis definiert) auf das Wechselverhalten der Kunden auswirkt.

Aufgabe 3: Lancierung Produktpakete / Stock-Flow Modell / Jan Mathieu & Martin Bovet

mephew

Building Rapport

Steve Zeiger

Simple goal-seeking loop to explain influences to achieve sold-out event (i.e. all seats are filled).

Sold Out Event

John Meyer

Salespipeline, systemisch dargestellt!

Salespipeline

Franz Badertscher

在提升銷售業績的過程中,

分析增強環路與調節環路:)

[增強環路1]:為了提升營業額,而投入更多行銷費用,品牌知名度上升,收入也持續增加 :))

[調節環路1]:當行銷支出越多時,會使產品的利潤下滑,也降低了整體銷售額能賺到的利潤!

[調節環路2]: 為了衝業績,工作時間就必須拉長,壓力變大導致工作效率下降而成長幅度趨緩!

M10320014_提升銷售業績之成長上限

CHUANG,KUN-YING

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year

Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median

for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]

for £ use 0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Model of UK Retail

David Horgan

A simple model of how leads progress to close and installation in order to help identify inflection points where demand exceeds resources and creates installation backlog.

Lead-Installation

Robert Koshinskie

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Add in MCI model with price and advertising effect

Model of UK Retail

Nate Gerber

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Michael Bode

A basic model that shows the progress of a lead through several selling stages. Leads proceed through fixed time periods (conveyors) but with adjustable probability of progress to closure.

Clone of Sales Pipeline

Travis Rhoades

Two loop structure which reflects the reinforcing effects of profits/investment, as well as profits/employee retention.

Clone of Business Growth and Stability

David Horgan

Simple customer growth stock and flow model that considers the impact of referrals, conversion rate and market size.

Simple Market Saturation Model

Robert Koshinskie

Showing the growth obstacles and opportunities.

Sales Increase

Denton Goodford

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year

Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info: