Forecasting | Insight Maker

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Kishau Rogers

14

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Add in MCI model with price and advertising effect

Model of UK Retail

Nate Gerber

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year

Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median

for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]

for £ use 0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Model of UK Retail

David Horgan

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Michael Bode

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Steven van Hekelen

A simple model for market sizing and sigmoidal growth over time

TAM, SAM, SOM

Robert Koshinskie

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

sub cribed

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales

wolfram alpha:

UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion

UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)

UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week

average UK salary = £29,009 per year

£557 = average wage per capita per week

Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year

Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:

https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median

for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]

for £ use 0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Clone of Model of UK Retail

David Horgan

8 months ago

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Ralph Hodgson

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Nilo Guimaraes

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

David Horgan

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Nilo Guimaraes

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Nilo Guimaraes

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Kerry

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Ryan D. Hatch

5 months ago

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups

The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach.

This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend.

Important Variables:

1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)

2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)

3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition

Other Variables:

4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer

5. Total Available Market : Total available market size

6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Clone of Bottom-up Sales Forecasting

Muhammed Kucuk

3 months ago

Forecasting Models