Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4




Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year
Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median
for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]
for £ use  0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Add in MCI model with price and advertising effect

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

A simple model for market sizing and sigmoidal growth over time

Business Forecasting Market Sizing

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales

Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4




Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year
Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median
for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]
for £ use  0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting for Startups
The purpose of this simulation is to demonstrate the implications of forecasting sales without consideration for how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. A common mistake in sales forecasting is to define your # of expected sales leads based on your total market size and your assumption regarding the % of that market you can reach. 
This model demonstrates the forecasting impact to defining the # of expect leads based on how much it cost you to acquire a lead and how much you have available to spend. 
Important Variables:1. [UseLAC?] (set to 1 to use the lead acquisition cost to define your reachable market; use 0 to set the reachable market to equal the total available market size)2. LAC (should equal what it cost you to acquire a lead)3. SalesMarketingBudget : how much you have available to spend on customer acquisition
Other Variables:4. Price : Avg spending amount per new customer5. Total Available Market : Total available market size6. Conversion Rate : the % of your target market that will become a lead

Startup Business Forecasting Sales