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Econometrics

Model of UK Retail

David Horgan
Leading 10 retailers' share of the apparel market in the UK 2008-2018 Leading retailers' share of the apparel market in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2008 and 2018 2008 2018* M&S 9.7 7.6 Primark 4.4 7 Next 6.7 6.6 Arcadia 5.3 3.8 Asda 3.5 3.5 TK Maxx 2.2 3.1 Tesco 2.5 2.9 JD Sports 1.1 2.7 Debenhams 3.3 2.7 Sports Direct 1.3 2.4




Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per week £38461538461

UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Approx 2.5% increase in GDP per year
Retail sales strongly cyclical with 12 month period

27.2 million households

household spending info:https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/here-are-uk-household-spending-insights

disposable income per household = £29,400 median
for clothing 0.042*[disposableincome]
for £ use  0.106*[disposableincome] for supermarket

0.071*[disposableincome] for deptstore

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

  • 1 week 2 days ago

Model of UK Retail

Nate Gerber
Preliminary modelling of UK retail market. Linking GDP, consumer confidence and retail sales
wolfram alpha:
UK GDP per year =£2.08 trillion
UK GDP per capita =£31177 per year (exchange rate dependent)
UK GDP per capita = £598.78 per capita per week
average UK salary = £29,009 per year£557 = average wage per capita per week
Add in MCI model with price and advertising effect

Econometrics Sales Forecasting

  • 3 months 4 days ago