Your browser (Internet Explorer 8 or lower) is out of date. It has known security flaws and may not display all features of this and other websites. Learn how to update your browser.

X

Menu

Finance

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES CHAOTIC TURBULENCE (+controls)

Guy Lakeman
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Supply Demand Strategy

  • 3 years 2 weeks ago

BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK

Guy Lakeman
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt Where  • F(t) is the probability of failure  • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) • t is the observed service life (h, for example)
The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early LifeIf we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.
Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  
Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Risk Failure Strategy

  • 1 year 10 months ago

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Strategy Weather

  • 4 years 8 months ago

POPULATION LOGISTIC MAP (WITH FEEDBACK)

Guy Lakeman
The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.The equation for DeltaN is a version of Nj+1 = Nj  + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj
the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3. Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.
Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

Environment MATHS Mathematics Chaos Fractals BIFURCATION Model Economics Finance TURBULENCE Population Growth DECAY STABILITY SUSTAINABLE Engineering Science Demographics Strategy

  • 4 years 9 months ago

Variables Influencing Business Problems Related to SAMS

Franz Weismann
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to the transitioning of the Social Assistance Management System (SAMS) from initial production deployment to steady state.
Inherent in the diagram is a representation of two well-known system dynamics archetypes:
  • Shifting the Burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops, and
  • Limits to Success, represented in the interplay between the B1 and R5 loops.

Finance Government Budget COTS IT Applications Shifting The Burden Limits To Success

  • 2 years 4 months ago

OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth Strategy Weather

  • 1 year 10 months ago

Food-born pathogen outbreaks

Hamsterlord Hamster Hamster
This is an insight about food-born pathogens and what factors are affected by it's outbreaks. This is a huge issue that is not very well-known. The pathogens in food has been increasing their resistance to antibiotics by mutations. Because we are generally using antibiotics more each day, the resistance in these pathogens is growing more rapidly then it did before.

Health Care Finance

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Factors Affecting the Real Estate Market by 42151619

Ying Chen
Macquarie University | MGMT220: Fundamentals of Business Analytics | Assignment Task #3: Complex Systems by Ying Chen (42151619)

This simple model uses the following key factors to demostrate the behaviour within the real estate market, bank's interest rates, median sale price, and listed sale price.

Sliders located below can be used to set values to simulate the affects over time.

Housing Finance Bird

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil

Matheus Baroni
Modelagem Soft sobre o Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil. Atividade proposta em Teoria Geral dos Sistemas, ministrada pelo Prof. Antonio Carlos Zambon.
Integrantes:- Edson da Costa Vitor Junior, 170086- Gustavo Batistic Ribeiro, 174028- Huanna Raquel do Nascimento, 174720- Karen E. M. Rodrigues, 177493- Leticia O. C. Tavares, 182047- Matheus Baroni, 184378

Finance Government

  • 3 months 2 weeks ago

Pages