Fire Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Fire”.

 *scroll to bottom for user inputs*     FIRE_simulation  v1.0  20200618     A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.       with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones r
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com


programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables

To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
6 5 months ago
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
   Simulator
of your money behavior in your pursuit of FIRE (Financial Independence and
Early Retirement) 

 Simulator is
equipped with additional wealth generation system post FI point - "FI
point buffer". It is additional buffer in % above FI to earn before early
retirement. If you spend on the sa

Simulator of your money behavior in your pursuit of FIRE (Financial Independence and Early Retirement)

Simulator is equipped with additional wealth generation system post FI point - "FI point buffer". It is additional buffer in % above FI to earn before early retirement. If you spend on the same level as before reaching FIRE it will generate additional wealth after you retire and it keeps you secure if your spending increases after you retire.

How to use:

  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Adjust sliders according to your particular situation
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Run simulation and examine the results
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Keep all the money numbers in one currency. 
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Unless specified otherwise sliders are in currency unit

FIRE point is calculated using the rule of 300 (12x25) over your monthly expenses adjusted for taxes at specified rate.

If you wish to stop simulation at the FIRE point change formula in “STOP” variable to “IfThenElse([Investment]>[FI point], Stop(), 0)”

Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
4 months ago
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
This is a model showing the behavior of fire at set wind speeds, relative humidity levels, and ignition point.
 *scroll to bottom for user inputs*     FIRE_simulation  v1.0  20200618     A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.       with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre-&gt;post FIRE and see how many clones r
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com


programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables

To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
7 months ago
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
5 months ago
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
5 months ago
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
5 months ago
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
5 months ago
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
Beta version of model to explore relationships among investments in forest harvest, forest restoration, wood products manufacturing, and fire risk on 4+ million acres of private forestland in the Western U.S.
5 months ago
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington
4 days ago
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington
Interactions for fire, cheatgrass, and biological soil crusts based on data at Horse Heaven Hills, Washington