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FIRE_simulation

Phillip Balding
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*
FIRE_simulationv1.020200618
A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.
Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!
can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.
Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)
Top right are variables about me.Top left are market variables.bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.
Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.
some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version
Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com

programming notes:-market return years running consecutively not random.-future years return FIRE rule-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60-rearrange user input variables

To do:-get actual historical dividends-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.-year begin not integer? -auto interpolation seems good.-tidy the fucking model map mess-fix child costs at initial random dist.

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  • 11 months 3 weeks ago

FIRE simulator

Cezary Zając

Simulator of your money behavior in your pursuit of FIRE (Financial Independence and Early Retirement)

Simulator is equipped with additional wealth generation system post FI point - "FI point buffer". It is additional buffer in % above FI to earn before early retirement. If you spend on the same level as before reaching FIRE it will generate additional wealth after you retire and it keeps you secure if your spending increases after you retire.

How to use:

  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Adjust sliders according to your particular situation
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Run simulation and examine the results
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Keep all the money numbers in one currency. 
  • ·       <!--[endif]-->Unless specified otherwise sliders are in currency unit

FIRE point is calculated using the rule of 300 (12x25) over your monthly expenses adjusted for taxes at specified rate.

If you wish to stop simulation at the FIRE point change formula in “STOP” variable to “IfThenElse([Investment]>[FI point], Stop(), 0)”

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  • 1 year 3 months ago