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FIRE_simulation

Phillip Balding
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*
FIRE_simulationv1.020200618
A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.
Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!
can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.
Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)
Top right are variables about me.Top left are market variables.bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.
Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.
some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version
Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com

programming notes:-market return years running consecutively not random.-future years return FIRE rule-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60-rearrange user input variables

To do:-get actual historical dividends-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.-year begin not integer? -auto interpolation seems good.-tidy the fucking model map mess-fix child costs at initial random dist.

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This insight series suggests there may be other important factors that predict good careers and  income streams than just a college degree.

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This insight series suggests there may be other important factors that predict good careers and  income streams than just a college degree.

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