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Bourke's Crime Problem Model
Ngoc Nhung Truong
​Model Information 
This model is designed to make the link between people in Bourke, crime preservation and committed jail rate. Those elements are constantly affected by police, employment availability and education investment. I have simulated to show the number of criminals, jail, and alcohol addicted. 
Model has used 4 elements are Bourke population, alcohol addicted, crime preservation, and jail. There are 3 variables: police, employment rate and education investment. These three variable are adjustable.
People in Bourke can involved in many different situations. 
#1: They are drink and become alcohol addicts (drink stage). Base on the fact of Bourke problems, I have created a really hight rate drinking people (70% of town).The alcohol addicts are easily committed as criminals (50% 0f addicts) (commit stage). But this number can be decrease if they have higher education rate.
#2: They offended by temptation and become crime preservation (Temptation stage). Crime preservation can be considered and returned back to community (return stage). Otherwise, they convict to bad criminal guilty and go to jail ( conviction stage). The flow rate of conviction is also affected by the number of police. From jail, they could be release after five year and changing also base on the educate rate (release stage).
#3 They can have jobs in engage stage. Employment rate is also affected by education.
Bourke  is showed as the number of people in town, set to an initial value of 2000 to represent 100% of people in Bourke
Jail  because the criminal issues of Bourke are wide spread so jail describes the number of people who convicted as criminals, which is 20% of crime rate and minus the percentage of police.
Alcohol addicted is the rate of people who usually using alcohol.
Crime preservation is the number of people who are under consideration after doing something wrong or commit a sin. This is the waiting stage to confirm a offender.
Police  is a adjusted range number of police in town, which directly affect to temptation rate.
Employment : The unemployment rate in Bourke is hight. This apparently lead to community problem such as  theft or drinking alcohol. Employment is made adjusted to decrease te temptation and alcohol addicted rate. Employment rate is increased by going up education investment.
Education Investment: I strongly focus on this element because the belief that the better education creates better community. Thus, education investment in this model could change the release, return, conviction, commit and temptation flows.
There are2000 people in BourkePolice range: 1-100Education investment rate: 1-100Employment rate: 1-400
Observation and Key assumption Not all crime preservation will go to jail, some are returned back to Bourke.Leaving all the variable at minimum, position results in the large amount of crime and after the the strong increasing in jail rate. The amount of jail is opposite the amount of criminals.
Leaving the employment and police at minimum but maximise the education investment rate, the elements widely fluctuate but gradually decrease to 0 after long time (34 years)
Leaving the education investment but maximise police and employment rate, the crime and jail amount almost a half during the time.

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  • 3 years 1 month ago

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