Police | Insight Maker

MKT563: Assessment Item 4

Student Name: Christopher Brockman

Student ID: 1153 2934B

Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke.

By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.

About the model

As Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).

It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.

Bourke - Relationship Among Different Players

Christopher Brockman

Model Information

This model is designed to make the link between people in Bourke, crime preservation and committed jail rate. Those elements are constantly affected by police, employment availability and education investment. I have simulated to show the number of criminals, jail, and alcohol addicted.

Model has used 4 elements are Bourke population, alcohol addicted, crime preservation, and jail. There are 3 variables: police, employment rate and education investment. These three variable are adjustable.

People in Bourke can involved in many different situations.

#1: They are drink and become alcohol addicts (drink stage). Base on the fact of Bourke problems, I have created a really hight rate drinking people (70% of town).The alcohol addicts are easily committed as criminals (50% 0f addicts) (commit stage). But this number can be decrease if they have higher education rate.

#2: They offended by temptation and become crime preservation (Temptation stage). Crime preservation can be considered and returned back to community (return stage). Otherwise, they convict to bad criminal guilty and go to jail ( conviction stage). The flow rate of conviction is also affected by the number of police. From jail, they could be release after five year and changing also base on the educate rate (release stage).

#3 They can have jobs in engage stage. Employment rate is also affected by education.

Bourke is showed as the number of people in town,

set to an initial value of 2000 to represent 100% of people in Bourke

Jail because the criminal issues of Bourke are wide spread so jail describes the number of people who convicted as criminals, which is 20% of crime rate and minus the percentage of police.

Alcohol addicted is the rate of people who usually using alcohol.

Crime preservation is the number of people who are under consideration after doing something wrong or commit a sin. This is the waiting stage to confirm a offender.

Police is a adjusted range number of police in town, which directly affect to temptation rate.

Employment : The unemployment rate in Bourke is hight. This apparently lead to community problem such as theft or drinking alcohol. Employment is made adjusted to decrease te temptation and alcohol addicted rate. Employment rate is increased by going up education investment.

Education Investment: I strongly focus on this element because the belief that the better education creates better community. Thus, education investment in this model could change the release, return, conviction, commit and temptation flows.

There are

2000 people in Bourke

Police range: 1-100

Education investment rate: 1-100

Employment rate: 1-400

Observation and Key assumption

Not all crime preservation will go to jail, some are returned back to Bourke.

Leaving all the variable at minimum, position results in the large amount of crime and after the the strong increasing in jail rate. The amount of jail is opposite the amount of criminals.

Leaving the employment and police at minimum but maximise the education investment rate, the elements widely fluctuate but gradually decrease to 0 after long time (34 years)

Leaving the education investment but maximise police and employment rate, the crime and jail amount almost a half during the time.

Bourke's Crime Problem Model

Ngoc Nhung Truong

3

AKHIL ARYA - 44680198

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bourke is town with a population of 5000 people, that has limited offered to keep its community occupied. This has led to a lot of residents to result to mischief and violence, however, the town has had enough and decided that a change is required. Investment in both more policing and community activities is said to provide a drastic improvement in the quality of living in the suburb.

The complex system designed here details the improvements that can be made and can assist in the decision making of whether more money should be invested into policing or community activities.

Assumptions:

- The population of Bourke remains 5000 for the entirety of this model (for simplicity). NO births or deaths. NO moving in or out.

- There will be a delay rate for personal convicted after they leave jail and rehab.

- 30% of offenders are released directly back to the community, while the remaining 70% will be transferred to rehab for rehabilitation.

- All jail sentences are constant at 6 months (for simplicity)

Variables

- Police: slider allows us to adjust the amount of policing involved in the town so we can observe the effect of changing police numbers corresponding to amount of crime committed. Range: 5 – 100.

- Drugs and Alcohol: contribute to increase violence and crime being committed, therefore, maybe regulating the number of drugs and amount of alcohol that both minors and adults consume by police officers. Then hopefully crime can be reduced and even prevented. Range: 0 -20.

- Community investment: this slider allows us to alter the amount of community investment that Bourke will invest in. Range: 0 – 1.

- Sporting Investment: Sporting showed great results and improvements to the quality of living in Bourke. Keeping youths and adults occupied in rugby teams is a great time pass and great way to let off some steam for a lot of people. The slider allows us to observe the effect of these investments on the quality of living in Bourke. Range: 0 – 1.

Interesting Results:

Police Slider: 10

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the sliders set at these numbers, we can observe a constant cycle between residents altering from jail and home, as the crime commit remains relatively constant (very slow descent).

Police Slider: 100

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the police maxed out, the crime rate still remains relatively constant, will slight decrease but it being so small I can be considered insignificant. From this we can propose that without alternate activities for the residents of Bourke to get involved in, reforming and making a change to the suburb will be a very difficult. Investment into just policing can also be seen as not the best investment of money.

Bourke Assignment 3 - MGMT220

Akhil Arya

This model presents correlation between young people who finished University and young people who dropped University. Also, this model shows relationships among youth alienation, crime rate, police expenses, dysfunctional family and percentage of youth sent to jail and youth who were justified, re-educated and found job through employment exchange.

Assumptions

This model presumes that the overal youth population of the town Bourke is 1 000 people.

Variables

Lack of financial resources

Changes their mind

Employment exchange

The level of these variables can be corrected.

Relationships between various groups in Bourke_Student ID 11640880

Karina Goncharenko

THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME CRATE

Model explanation:

This model is to simulate the impact of community development and police enforcement on two contradict lifestyles of Bourke young population - Focusing on people with negative lifestyle to reduce the crime crate.

Also illustrate the effect of community engagement and Police expenditure on young crime in town.

Bourke town is a local government area of New South Wales facing with complex social issues with high rate of crime.

Young people from 15-24 years’ old

Young people with positive lifestyle: employed, well-educated, financial independent, sport players, involved on community events

Young people with negative lifestyle: unemployed, expelled from school, drug users/dealers, alcoholic, not involved in community program. This is the focal point of the model on how the community and police enforcement need to be strongly involved to mitigate the crime in town.

Assumptions: (2019)

Dependent variable A: Bourke young population: 1000

Independent variable A: * Community development: from 1 to 10

* Police enforcement: from 1 to 20

Dependent variable B: Young people with negative lifestyle

Independent variable A: * Community engagement expenditure: from 0 to 1

* Police expenditure: from 0 to 1

Bourke young population with NEGATIVE lifestyle:

The higher rate of Community engagement expenditure and Police expenditure will reduce the number of crime rate.

OUTCOME:

1) The effect of Community development and Police enforcement will determine the Bourke young people lifestyle as majority of them is positive or negative.

If the total of [Community development + Police enforcement] is 3% covering for the total Bourke young population and above, then:

* 70% of Bourke young population is leading a POSITIVE lifestyle

* 30% of Bourke young population is leading a NEGATIVE lifestyle

In contrast, these percentages will be in the reverse order.

2) The high involment rate of Community engagement expenditure with effective Community program will reduce the number of young people with negative lifestyle to Criminal Activities and vice versa.

2) The high involvement rate of Police expenditure with effective Police Intervention will reduce the number of of young people with Criminal activities to Committed crime and vice versa.

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Student name : Nguyen Thi Nga

Student ID : 11653918

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THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME RATE

Tina Nguyen

Purpose of the model

To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.

Assumptions

3000 residents in Bourke

4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk

STOCKS

AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Individuals who committed a crime

CRIME

Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.

JAIL

Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.

COMMUNITY PROGRAM

Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.

NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Once an at risk individual completes the community Program

VARIABLES

LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING

Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program

POLICE UNITS

Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time

CONVICTIONS

Conviction rate depends on the amount of active police.

PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE

Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets

SET NUMBERS

Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.

Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.

At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling

Suggested Settings.

Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact

Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.

Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

Clone of 44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana

Purpose of the model

To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.

Assumptions

3000 residents in Bourke

4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk

Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.

STOCKS

AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Individuals who committed a crime

CRIME

Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.

JAIL

Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.

COMMUNITY PROGRAM

Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.

NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Once an at risk individual completes the community Program

VARIABLES

LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING

Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program

POLICE UNITS

Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time

ARRESTS

Arrests rate depends on number of active police units

PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE

Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets

SET NUMBERS

Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.

Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.

At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling

Suggested Settings.

Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact

Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.

Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana

INTRODUCTION

This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).

This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.

STOCKS-

Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke

Adult- The adults living in Bourke

Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.

Apprehended- Getting captured by the police

Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.

Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.

VARIABLE-

Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.

The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.

ASSUMPTION-

1) 3000 People living in Bourke

2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse

3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth

4) Crime- 600

5) Apprehended -

6) Community Group - 300

7) Positive life - 100

8) Jail - 480

SUGGESTED SETTING

Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.

High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

CONCLUSION

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.

For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)

Umang Snehi

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Clone of Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

Zaiceva Ekaterina

Assignment

This assignment illustrates the effects of police fundings and community expenditure on the society.

And how we can improve the Town (Bourke).

Stocks

Population- Population of Bourke (3000)

Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults

Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young

Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.

Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed

Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.

Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.

Variables

Community Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.

Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.

Assumptions

1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.

2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.

3. 60% of the population is Adults

4. 40% of the population is Youth

5. 500 people are already doing crime

6. 365 people are already in jail.

7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle

8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.

9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.

10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.

How Model Works

--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group.

--If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.

--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police.

--Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.

--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.

All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.

Assignment_3_MGMT220_[44178751]

Laksh Taneja

Background

This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community. The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying to reduce the crime rate of the youth due to boredom and their aim is to see the benefits of having a community club. Through the model you are able to see the benefit of an increase of community investment or police or both.

Description of Model

- The model begins of a population of 1000 youth in Bourke.

- 60% of the youth are criminals.

- The convicted youth depends on the conviction rate which is reflective of the police expenditure.

- The conviction rate is at 50% though with police involvement it is increased by 10%.

- 60% of convicted criminals are released without rehabilitation.

- The remainder of convicted criminals that are rehabilitated depends on the amount of community investment.

- 40% of the youth that attend the community club are 60% less likely to end up in rehabilitation.

Adjustable Variables

Community Investment:
- From 0-100
- Effective for community club use and decrease in crime rate

Police:
-From 10-70
-There will always be the use of police in a city, though the police cannot have an uneven ratio to population.

Conviction Rate:
-From 10-70
-There will always be conviction though through the use of police try to be the minimal as possible.

Assumptions

-The population of youth is 1000.

-Only youth are commiting crime.

-There is no increase of individual risk.

-The use of community club will involve youth and decrease their crime rates.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | 43674240

Joseph Kizana

Model Information

This model is designed to make the link between people in Bourke, crime preservation and committed jail rate. Those elements are constantly affected by police, employment availability and education investment. I have simulated to show the number of criminals, jail, and alcohol addicted.

Model has used 4 elements are Bourke population, alcohol addicted, crime preservation, and jail. There are 3 variables: police, employment rate and education investment. These three variable are adjustable.

People in Bourke can involved in many different situations.

#1: They are drink and become alcohol addicts (drink stage). Base on the fact of Bourke problems, I have created a really hight rate drinking people (70% of town).The alcohol addicts are easily committed as criminals (50% 0f addicts) (commit stage). But this number can be decrease if they have higher education rate.

#2: They offended by temptation and become crime preservation (Temptation stage). Crime preservation can be considered and returned back to community (return stage). Otherwise, they convict to bad criminal guilty and go to jail ( conviction stage). The flow rate of conviction is also affected by the number of police. From jail, they could be release after five year and changing also base on the educate rate (release stage).

#3 They can have jobs in engage stage. Employment rate is also affected by education.

Bourke is showed as the number of people in town,

set to an initial value of 2000 to represent 100% of people in Bourke

Jail because the criminal issues of Bourke are wide spread so jail describes the number of people who convicted as criminals, which is 20% of crime rate and minus the percentage of police.

Alcohol addicted is the rate of people who usually using alcohol.

Crime preservation is the number of people who are under consideration after doing something wrong or commit a sin. This is the waiting stage to confirm a offender.

Police is a adjusted range number of police in town, which directly affect to temptation rate.

Employment : The unemployment rate in Bourke is hight. This apparently lead to community problem such as theft or drinking alcohol. Employment is made adjusted to decrease te temptation and alcohol addicted rate. Employment rate is increased by going up education investment.

Education Investment: I strongly focus on this element because the belief that the better education creates better community. Thus, education investment in this model could change the release, return, conviction, commit and temptation flows.

There are

2000 people in Bourke

Police range: 1-100

Education investment rate: 1-100

Employment rate: 1-400

Observation and Key assumption

Not all crime preservation will go to jail, some are returned back to Bourke.

Leaving all the variable at minimum, position results in the large amount of crime and after the the strong increasing in jail rate. The amount of jail is opposite the amount of criminals.

Leaving the employment and police at minimum but maximise the education investment rate, the elements widely fluctuate but gradually decrease to 0 after long time (34 years)

Leaving the education investment but maximise police and employment rate, the crime and jail amount almost a half during the time.

Clone of Bourke's Crime Problem Model

Srinivas Nalla

Creating an actor map of the difference stakeholders in AI policing systems

AI Policing Stakeholders

Archita Tayal

Draft Insight 43674615

Abanoub Mickaeal

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Assignment 3 44906064

Arvindhan Gopal Punitha

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Clone of Clone of Assignment 3 44906064

fredrick cm

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Clone of Assignment 3 44906064

fredrick cm

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

William Dang

MKT 563, Assessment 4

Name Sothearen Khuoy

ID: 11709868

This model illustrated how crime impact on community development.

The diagram illustrated of community development and unemployment rate in Bourke town. The assumption of Bourke population is set as 3,000, and unemployment population set as 500. While unemployment rate is effective by crime and prisoners. The value of crime is 100, and the initial value of prisoners are 300.

Variable of diagram is shown the relationship between community development and lack of human resource. If Bourke community lack of human resource, it will be negative impact to unemployment and positive impact to crime. While all of the influences will be impact to community development. All in all, the crime in Bourke community is affect to community development and unemployment in community also.

Influence of Community development in Bourke

Sothearen Khuoy

Police Models