Elements of Human Security
Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.
Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80
How the Model Works:
1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.
2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.
Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
Youth Crime rate in BourkeAn educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model ExplanationThis simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
YellowstoneEcoClassModel - ISD OWL
Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592
More Details about the Graph
In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.
According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.
However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.
The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
Health Modeling Ecosystem
Bourke Town Restoration
1. Community Development- Main Reasons (Variables)a. Peopleb. ALS c. Education---When Bourke's people will get proper education, and there is a greater involvement of the council/ALS/Police in lifting the living standards of people, then they will feel developed and will lead to an overall community development. With the Stock and Variable people, there is a two way relation because both are inter-dependent. For this assessment's purpose, the education rate is kept as 70% which is that there should be > 70% population who is educated.
Convertors ---For the people, it is necessary that from the day the child is born till the day he/she ages well, he/she should be trained properly to uplift their standards.
ALS/Council is responsible to carry out the activities that are listed in the KPMG Report in order to make the community development.
In the STATE Educated, it means that if the people are educated, they will be able to do more work, more employment and eventually, more community development.
2. Less Development This is the present scenario. People are lonely, there is not much education, unemployment rate is high and which is leading to more crimes. This at the end is leading to lesser development and which made sure the Bourke's name is in the most dangerous places to live on the earth!
Unemployment and Loneliness are the leading factors to crimes
The STATE is Binary which is either 0 or 1. If the people are not educated enough, they will commit crime.
There are two Simulation. a. Community Developmentb. Less Development
The initial one is the one with the factors leading to community development. The latter one is the one with the factors leading to lesser development.
44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana
Assumptions 3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.
AT RISK INDIVIDUALSIndividuals who committed a crime
CRIMEIncludes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAILOnce an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.
COMMUNITY PROGRAMWhere at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALSOnce an at risk individual completes the community Program
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDINGAmount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITSAmount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
ARRESTSArrests rate depends on number of active police units
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATEProgram completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERSTotal population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
Bourke Community Engagement Impact on Youth Detention
HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW
MKT563 Assessment 4: Kari Steele
Aim of Simulation:
Bourke is a town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson, 2016). This simulation focuses on how implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships; strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).
An InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention rates) with variables including participation rate and also drug and alcohol use.
1/ ‘Youth’ are defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and 24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).
2/ Youth population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is 3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.
3/ Big Brothers Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use, compared to control. They were 32 less likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths, compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better relationships with parents. Emotional support among peers was higher than controls.
Youth Population = 435
Criminal Behaviour = 100
40% of youth population who commit a crime are non-convicted
60% of youth population who commit a crime are convicted
20% of youth involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged
80% of youth involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged
The variables include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over time.
As can be seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of youths involved in program). By moving the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour increase.
From the simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation of impact.
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006
Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018). Big Brothers Big Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May 2018, <www.blueprintsprograms.com/evaluation-abstract/big-brothers-big-sisters-of-america>
National Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program, viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>
Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and
Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.
Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). (n.d.). Definition of Youth, viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf
Bourke - Relationship Among Different Players
Student Name: Christopher BrockmanStudent ID: 1153 2934B
Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke. By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.
About the modelAs Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).
It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.
Variables/relationshipsThe variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
- Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
- Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.
Interesting parametersAs the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).
ConclusionFrom the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.
Affect of Funding on Policing and Community Development Initiative in Bourke, NSW
'At risk community members' are individuals who have been identified as likely to commit crime.
'Charged' community members are individuals who have committed a crime, have been caught and charged.
'Community development program members' are individuals who have been identified as at risk, but have also been selected to take part in a community development progam.
'Community members' are individuals who are not classified as at risk.
This insight shows the process of how individuals transfer between categories, with finance as the independent variable. Finance can be altered from a minimum of $250,000 to a maximum of $1,000,000. The finance variable can be altered using the total finance slider located on the right hand side.
AssumptionsHere is a list of assumptions made about this scenario. Assumptions are also found in the story of this insight.
*Bourke comprises of 3000 individuals. 2750 are classified as at risk and 250 as community members at time 0
*The average jail sentence is two years
*The government pays $1,000 per year for each individual who is charged and jailed
*The average cost of a community development program is $4,000 per year, per individual
*The average individual will relapse and commit a crime or be rehabilitated within three years
Relationship Amongst Different Players within Bourke
Student - Eliza ElliottStudent Number - 11615872
OverviewInsight Maker was used to illustrate the relationship between police enforcement and community development initiatives (youth counselling, educational institution and sports clubs) and the influence these may have on illegal and disruptive activities and subsequent crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke. Through examination of the existing relationships between variables (youth counselling vs alienated adolescents), we can highlight if an inverse relationship is present between adolescent crime rates and community development initiatives within Bourke.
Explanation of the modelDue to the subdued nature of Bourke as a country town, it is likely that the population of adolescents become bored and subsequently alienated throughout their developmental stages.
Thus, this illustration aims to identify if there is benefit in development of additional community initiatives, in the hopes that these will guide positive behavioural change within the adolescent community. For example, youth counselling, educational institutions and local sporting clubs.
To develop the model, we assume that the adolescent members of the Bourke population that routinely participate in youth counselling, are active members of a sporting club or undertake studies at the local educational institution (University or TAFE) are less likely to engage in criminal activity.
We have assumed that adolescents spend (on average) 24 months at an educational institution, which has been represented as a 12 month delay, illustrating that the long-term benefits to the community are somewhat delayed.
Illustrating relationshipsThe two independent variables are illustrated in circles, with relationships between these variables and stocks linked by green (positive relationship), and orange (negative relationship) arrows.
Thus, independent variables are as follows:
Community Development Initiatives: We expect to see an inverse relationship between criminal activity and community development initiatives.
Police Enforcement: We assume that as police enforcement is increased, this will result in fewer criminal activities committed, and simultaneously serve as a deterrent for further criminal activity.
Using the slidersBy adjusting the values in the sliders, a trend of adolescents engaging in less criminal activity begins to form. This also corresponds to less time throughout the criminal justice system and juvenile detention.
ConclusionThus, the illustrated model reveals that the town of Bourke, would benefit from additional community development initiatives, such as youth counselling, sports clubs and educational institutions, which assist in keeping the adolescent population occupied.
Advanced Community Growth Model
THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME RATE
Model explanation:This model is to simulate the impact of community development and police enforcement on two contradict lifestyles of Bourke young population - Focusing on people with negative lifestyle to reduce the crime crate. Also illustrate the effect of community engagement and Police expenditure on young crime in town.
Bourke town is a local government area of New South Wales facing with complex social issues with high rate of crime.
Young people from 15-24 years’ old
Young people with positive lifestyle: employed, well-educated, financial independent, sport players, involved on community events
Young people with negative lifestyle: unemployed, expelled from school, drug users/dealers, alcoholic, not involved in community program. This is the focal point of the model on how the community and police enforcement need to be strongly involved to mitigate the crime in town.
Dependent variable A: Bourke young population: 1000Independent variable A: * Community development: from 1 to 10 * Police enforcement: from 1 to 20
Dependent variable B: Young people with negative lifestyleIndependent variable A: * Community engagement expenditure: from 0 to 1 * Police expenditure: from 0 to 1
Bourke young population with NEGATIVE lifestyle:
The higher rate of Community engagement expenditure and Police expenditure will reduce the number of crime rate.
1) The effect of Community development and Police enforcement will determine the Bourke young people lifestyle as majority of them is positive or negative.
If the total of [Community development + Police enforcement] is 3% covering for the total Bourke young population and above, then: * 70% of Bourke young population is leading a POSITIVE lifestyle * 30% of Bourke young population is leading a NEGATIVE lifestyle
In contrast, these percentages will be in the reverse order.
2) The high involment rate of Community engagement expenditure with effective Community program will reduce the number of young people with negative lifestyle to Criminal Activities and vice versa.
2) The high involvement rate of Police expenditure with effective Police Intervention will reduce the number of of young people with Criminal activities to Committed crime and vice versa.
----------------------------------------------Student name : Nguyen Thi NgaStudent ID : 11653918----------------------------------------------
MKT - 563 - Student 11376247 Brenton Nisbet
This model highlights the interdependent relationship between:
- Police funding- Community Development- Youth Alienation
And the impact they have on youth engagement levels over time in the NSW town of Bourke.
The model assumes the youth population of bourke to be 1000 people.
-Community Group effect is delayed by 3 months, aligning the model to seasonality to account for the large impact seasonal sport has on rural community.
- 20% of youth will disengage with the community after realising the development funding doesn't align to their interests.
- 80% of disengaged youth will be at risk of committing a crime.
- 19% of youth arrested will have their charges dropped
- 81% will have a conviction recorded
- 21% of detained youth will be rehabilitated in line with the NSW average.
- 79% of detained youth will re-offend in line with the NSW average.
- Police Force Funding can be adjusted upward or downward to simulate the effect on engagement, disengagement and crime levels.
- Community Development Funding can be adjusted to simulate the positive effect developing programs and opportunity for youth in Bourke may have on their engagement in society and the overall crime rate amongst their cohort.
- Youth Alienation slider allows the rate of youth alienation (Exposure to violence, drugs, alcohol. Lack of training, education and opportunity), to be slowed and speed up to simulate the impact it has on engagement and crime levels.
Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753
The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.
- Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
- The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
- Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
- Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
- Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
- 10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
- There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
- The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
- Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model
How the Model Works
The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.
Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.
From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.
Parameter Settings and Results
- Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
- Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
- Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
- If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
- The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development
As can be seen that, the police enforcement plays a vital role, in the shaping the lives of youth. Hence, with the Increase in police force and increase in such initiates, the crime is like to decrease. Hence, the youth shall also be kept away from all of such interactions and such Acts.
Also, the Community Development shall also play a vital role, in two folds. First it shall play a part in shaping the very mindset of youth , to indulge in positive activities and refrain from illegal activities.
Second of all, it shall provide rehabilitation to youth that have been subjected to such crimes and such events.
It can be Concluded that, with increase in Police enforcement and Community Development, the overall crime can be reduced. The Youth thereupon will only indulge in positive activities.
There are two Variables involved in the model
1. Police Enforcement
It measures how effectively and efficiently police go about fulfilling its duties; Identifying potential criminals and stopping them from committing crime and punishing criminal who are guilty.
2. Community Development
Community development intervenes by changing the mindset of alienated and rehabilitated youth and hence affecting the flow towards Social Interactive Activities.
Police enforcement can be adjusted using the slider given below. There is no choice given to adjust community development as it is affected by various factors of the society; education, culture, morals etc.
Youth engaged in Social Interactive Activities can never become alienated and hence will not go to drugs. In other words, a socially interactive youth member will be engaged in sports, education, gaming or café rather than drugs.
Youth are defined as ages 15-24, comprising of a population of 80. (ABS, 2016)
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). General Community Profile. (Cat. No. 2001.0). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/LGA11150?opendocument
Impact Model - Jack
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | A3 MGMT220 43832512
**Scroll down for adjustable sliders**
What is this model?
This model is designed as a simplified field of inputs and outputs for the proposed future justice reinvestment in the north-western NSW town of Bourke. This town is quite small with a total population of around 3,000 people but a worryingly high rate of criminal activity, antisocial behaviour and a generally low sense of community engagement. To plan for a better future this model has been created to map future patterns and changes given certain levels of community investment and policing which can me modified by users, including you!
Key Assumptions & Things to Note:
-Model interactions and consequences only focused on the effects of youth not adults.
-Total youth population assumed to be 1,500 out of the total 3,000 people in Bourke
-Model moves in monthly increments
-Model duration is 5 years (60 Months) as this seems like a realistic time frame for such a project plan to span over
-Engagement return modification allows between 0 and 6 months return to allow insight into the positive effects a shorter engagement time can have on the community
-Police Investment allows adjustment of police force units between 15 and 50
-Community Investment allows an investment of between 0 and 100 to provide a full spectrum of the town with or without investment
Model Prerequisite Understandings:
The model commences with 400 people engaging in criminal activity, and a further 300 people already in juvenile detention to provide a more realistic start point.
The most important message this model shows is that there is no one sided solution for everything. Without community investment, regardless of how many police you have the town is still going to be full of bored people committing crimes - just more will be caught and convicted.
On the flip side a town with no police and only community investment may have a low rate of people in juvenile detention and a high number of people in sports teams - but criminal activity may still be higher than optimal due to a low chance of getting caught.
You can see these results for yourselves simply by adjusting the variable sliders on the bottom right of the page to suit your investment interests. Relevant boundaries have been set to give only useful and meaningful information. Furthermore an engagement return tool has been added to show the effects of a slow or fast engagement pickup time ranging from 0 to 6 months. You will note that things change a lot quicker with a shorter engagement return time.
An interesting thing to note is how evenly 3 of the 4 key data fields in the first simulation display (with the outlier being sports team enrolment) when police investment is set to maximum and community investment is set to the minimum - we see essentially an even split between the 3 possibilities: In town, In Juvenile Detention or engaging in Criminal Activity. a 2:1 split of "bad" to "good" things happening. This shows with certainty that just adding policing with no positive reward or outlet for good behaviour results in a flattened cycle of boredom, criminal activity and conviction.
In this model it also seems that Bourke does require a fairly even but high matching of Police and Community Investment. For example setting the policing at 20 and the community engagement higher at say 50 results in indeed a high intake and output of town to sports team memberships however crime rates do still maintain a steady high dictating a more even match between policing and community investment like 40 and 60 to the former and latter to "eradicate" crime. (Of course this will never be 0 in the real world but it is a positive indicator here)
Relationships between various groups in Bourke_Student ID 11640880
This model presumes that the overal youth population of the town Bourke is 1 000 people.
Lack of financial resources
Changes their mind
The level of these variables can be corrected.
The Bourke Maranguka Reinvestment Program
This is a conceptual model that encapsulates the relationships between youth, community and police & justice within the town of Bourke, located in New South Wales, Australia. The conceptual model is interactive and when the funding and engagement models are changed, the rates will increase or decrease in the simulation. These sliders can be found at the bottom of this description.
Bourke is a municipality located on the Darling River, 760km north-west of Sydney. The population of Bourke is 2634 (2017) of which 829 people identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. This is approximately 31% of the population. Maranguka translates in local Ngemba language to "caring for others" and thus is the name given to the Bourke Reinvestment Project. The project is a collaborate works between the local community and Just Reinvest NSW and aims to break down the high rates of juvenile crime, domestic violence and criminal activity that made Bourke one of the most dangerous places in Australia.
By diverting the funds usually allocated to police and criminal systems into the community, the project has seen immense success particularly in youth and education sectors, with increased rates of Year 12 Retention, the completion of VET Courses and an increase in driving licenses.
Assumptions:* Total number of Youths in Bourke based on the 2016 Consensus Data via the ABS is 903 (0-24 years)* There was a 66% retention rate of Year 12 students in 2017* 115 driving licenses were allocated in 2017 and this number will increase with community engagement and funding* 56% of juveniles committed crime prior to the project* Of this 56%, 51 juveniles breached bail* 50% of juvenile offenders will be rehabilitated and find employment or education
Variables:* Community Funding* Community Engagement* Police & Justice Funding
In conclusion, rates of juvenile crime will decrease with increased community funding and engagement. This will also lead to increased year 12 retention, completion and the increase of driving licenses. The assumption is that increased education will also lead to increased employment.
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