Community | Insight Maker

4

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Urban Dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

16

Online Community to grow the use and effectiveness of Health Modelling using multiple methods

Health Modeling Ecosystem

Geoff McDonnell

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

William Dang

A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem. Changes to original: removal of non-connected variables to simplify view for middle school students.

YellowstoneEcoClassModel - ISD OWL

Kevin Collins

4

MKT563: Assessment Item 4

Student Name: Christopher Brockman

Student ID: 1153 2934B

Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke.

By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.

About the model

As Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).

It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.

Bourke - Relationship Among Different Players

Christopher Brockman

The Model

The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.

Assumptions

Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model

How the Model Works

The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.

Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.

From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.

Parameter Settings and Results

Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development

Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753

Ted Lindsay

This model presents correlation between young people who finished University and young people who dropped University. Also, this model shows relationships among youth alienation, crime rate, police expenses, dysfunctional family and percentage of youth sent to jail and youth who were justified, re-educated and found job through employment exchange.

Assumptions

This model presumes that the overal youth population of the town Bourke is 1 000 people.

Variables

Lack of financial resources

Changes their mind

Employment exchange

The level of these variables can be corrected.

Relationships between various groups in Bourke_Student ID 11640880

Karina Goncharenko

Purpose of the model

To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.

Assumptions

3000 residents in Bourke

4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk

STOCKS

AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Individuals who committed a crime

CRIME

Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.

JAIL

Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.

COMMUNITY PROGRAM

Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.

NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Once an at risk individual completes the community Program

VARIABLES

LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING

Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program

POLICE UNITS

Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time

CONVICTIONS

Conviction rate depends on the amount of active police.

PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE

Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets

SET NUMBERS

Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.

Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.

At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling

Suggested Settings.

Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact

Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.

Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

Clone of 44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Andrew Sohn

Crime Rate in Bourke

Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.

Clone of Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

Zaiceva Ekaterina

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Clone of Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

Zaiceva Ekaterina

Crime Rate in Bourke

Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.

Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

jack

Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW

This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.

Stocks:

General Population of Bourke

This is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.

Criminals

These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.

Incarcerated Criminals

When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.

Community Involvement Program Participants

These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.

Variables:

Size of Police Force

The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Funding for Community Programs

This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Description and Assumptions:

This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.

Based on statistics gathered from this document:

http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf

Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.

This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.

The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.

Notable Data Points

As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.

An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.

43692273 - Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW

Benjamin Muir

Crime Rate in Bourke

Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.

Clone of Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

Aidan Kinnunen

A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.

YellowstoneEcoClassModel

Esther

10

THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME CRATE

Model explanation:

This model is to simulate the impact of community development and police enforcement on two contradict lifestyles of Bourke young population - Focusing on people with negative lifestyle to reduce the crime crate.

Also illustrate the effect of community engagement and Police expenditure on young crime in town.

Bourke town is a local government area of New South Wales facing with complex social issues with high rate of crime.

Young people from 15-24 years’ old

Young people with positive lifestyle: employed, well-educated, financial independent, sport players, involved on community events

Young people with negative lifestyle: unemployed, expelled from school, drug users/dealers, alcoholic, not involved in community program. This is the focal point of the model on how the community and police enforcement need to be strongly involved to mitigate the crime in town.

Assumptions: (2019)

Dependent variable A: Bourke young population: 1000

Independent variable A: * Community development: from 1 to 10

* Police enforcement: from 1 to 20

Dependent variable B: Young people with negative lifestyle

Independent variable A: * Community engagement expenditure: from 0 to 1

* Police expenditure: from 0 to 1

Bourke young population with NEGATIVE lifestyle:

The higher rate of Community engagement expenditure and Police expenditure will reduce the number of crime rate.

OUTCOME:

1) The effect of Community development and Police enforcement will determine the Bourke young people lifestyle as majority of them is positive or negative.

If the total of [Community development + Police enforcement] is 3% covering for the total Bourke young population and above, then:

* 70% of Bourke young population is leading a POSITIVE lifestyle

* 30% of Bourke young population is leading a NEGATIVE lifestyle

In contrast, these percentages will be in the reverse order.

2) The high involment rate of Community engagement expenditure with effective Community program will reduce the number of young people with negative lifestyle to Criminal Activities and vice versa.

2) The high involvement rate of Police expenditure with effective Police Intervention will reduce the number of of young people with Criminal activities to Committed crime and vice versa.

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Student name : Nguyen Thi Nga

Student ID : 11653918

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THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME RATE

Tina Nguyen

ABOUT THE MODEL
This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities

Youth and community investment in Bourke

Lisa Ma

Introduction

This model illustrates the simulation of a range of variables which have an effect within the country town of Bourke. Bourke is known for its high crime right from youths to adults. Through adjustments made by the user, this model will show the result of such variations.

Bourke has a youth population under the age of 24 to be roughly 1000 people. For the sake of this experiment numbers have been slightly skewed to better reinforce various simulations. However, the information has been been skewed to the fact that there are going to be unrealistic results.

The variable which have sliders allowed are, Police Intervention, Drugs and Alcohol, Community Works, Activity Investment. While developing this model, through examination, it was found that these are the numbers that fluctuate the most in most scenarios, so why not keep it consists. Police presence is something that will always either increase or decrease depending on certain events which are scheduled to be on. The fluctuation of drugs and alcohol speaks for itself, as there is no way of knowing how much of either substance is readily available.

Community Workers, is set at 70, with the option of sliding it in which ever direction the user desires. Similarly, to police intervention, depending on events the level can significantly fluctuate. Activity Investment has a relationship with Community workers and Police Intervention. Increased volume in people results in increased investment.

Interesting Slides

After playing around here are some interesting variations you can make.

--> Police Intervention: Max, Drugs and Alcohol: min, Community workers: Max, Activity Investment: Max. The worm here shows a perfect situation of almost complete harmony within the community. I believe an increase in Police presence, Community works and activity investment will ultimately deter crime and antisocial behaviour in Bourke.

--> Do the opposite maxs and mins from the above test. With the increase in Drugs and Alcohol and minimisation of the other variables, we can see how volatile it makes the community. The worms for all stocks are aggressively up and down.

--> i have gone to the liberty of creating a display for you(the Viewer) at crimes committed while drug use has been present, however the person has gone straight to rehab and not to Jail.

Assumptions

1.The population of Bourke is 5000

2.The process of crime to Detention/Rehab, is the same for Youths and Adults.

3. In the Youth and Adult Detention Stock, the youths are separated from adults

4. Adults and youths can go straight to Rehab and not go to Jail.

Slide away and enjoy.

-Ned Robinson

MGMT220Ass3 44926855

Edward Robinson

Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development

This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different areas, the town of Bourke can decrease crime and increase their population involvement in community programs. This model is intended to be dynamic to allow the user to change certain variables to see changes in impact

The town of Bourke has a population of 3634 people, 903 of which are classified as youth (being 0-24 inclusive) (ABS, 2016 census).

This population starts with all youths in three differing stocks:

- 703 in Youth

- 100 in Juvenile Detention

- 100 in Rehabilitation

Assumptions:

This model makes many assumptions that would not necessarily uphold in reality.

- Only the youth of the town are committing crimes.

- All convicted youths spend 6 months in juvenile detention.

- All convicted youths must go to rehabilitation after juvenile detention and spend 2 months there.

- The risk rate impacts upon every youth committing a crime and is a broad term covering effects such as abuse.

- No gaol effect, youths do not return to town with a tendency to re- commit a crime.

- No further external factors than those given.

- There cannot be zero expenditure in any of the fields.

The stocks:

Each stock depicts a different action or place that an individual youth may find themselves in.

These stocks include:

- Youth (the youths living in Bourke, where youths are if they are not committing crimes or in community programs)

- Petty Crime (crimes committed by the youths of Bourke such as stealing)

- Juvenile Detention (where convicted youths go)

- Rehabilitation

- Community Programs

The variables:

- Community Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)

- Law Enforcement Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.6)

- Rehabilitation Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)

- Risk Rate (not adjustable but alters with Law Enforcement Expenditure)

Sliders on each of the expenditure variables have been provided. These variables indicate the percentage of the criminal minimising budget for Bourke.

Note that to be realistic, one should make the three differing sliders be equal to 1, in order to show 100% of expenditure

Base Parameter Settings:

- Law Enforcement Expenditure = 0.5

- Community Expenditure = 0.25

- Rehabilitation Expenditure = 0.25

Interesting Parameter Settings:

- When Law Enforcement is at 0.45 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.3 and 0.25 (in either order) then convicted and not-convicted values are the same. If Law Enforcement expenditure goes any lower then the number of convicted youths is less than those not-convicted and vice versa if the expenditure is increased.

- When Law Enforcement is at 0.2 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.4 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime and thus detention occurs in a shorter and more rapid time frame. This shows that crime can be minimised in this model almost entirely through community initiatives.

- Alternatively, when Law Enforcement is at 0.6 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.2 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime occurs over a longer time period with more incremental change.

Population Source:

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Bourke Community (C.Woods, 44593961)

Caitlin Woods

Assignment 3 MGMT220
**Scroll down for adjustable sliders**

What is this model?

This model is designed as a simplified field of inputs and outputs for the proposed future justice reinvestment in the north-western NSW town of Bourke. This town is quite small with a total population of around 3,000 people but a worryingly high rate of criminal activity, antisocial behaviour and a generally low sense of community engagement. To plan for a better future this model has been created to map future patterns and changes given certain levels of community investment and policing which can me modified by users, including you!

Key Assumptions & Things to Note:
-Model interactions and consequences only focused on the effects of youth not adults.
-Total youth population assumed to be 1,500 out of the total 3,000 people in Bourke
-Model moves in monthly increments
-Model duration is 5 years (60 Months) as this seems like a realistic time frame for such a project plan to span over
-Engagement return modification allows between 0 and 6 months return to allow insight into the positive effects a shorter engagement time can have on the community
-Police Investment allows adjustment of police force units between 15 and 50
-Community Investment allows an investment of between 0 and 100 to provide a full spectrum of the town with or without investment

Model Prerequisite Understandings:
The model commences with 400 people engaging in criminal activity, and a further 300 people already in juvenile detention to provide a more realistic start point.

Model Analysis:
The most important message this model shows is that there is no one sided solution for everything. Without community investment, regardless of how many police you have the town is still going to be full of bored people committing crimes - just more will be caught and convicted.

On the flip side a town with no police and only community investment may have a low rate of people in juvenile detention and a high number of people in sports teams - but criminal activity may still be higher than optimal due to a low chance of getting caught.

You can see these results for yourselves simply by adjusting the variable sliders on the bottom right of the page to suit your investment interests. Relevant boundaries have been set to give only useful and meaningful information. Furthermore an engagement return tool has been added to show the effects of a slow or fast engagement pickup time ranging from 0 to 6 months. You will note that things change a lot quicker with a shorter engagement return time.

An interesting thing to note is how evenly 3 of the 4 key data fields in the first simulation display (with the outlier being sports team enrolment) when police investment is set to maximum and community investment is set to the minimum - we see essentially an even split between the 3 possibilities: In town, In Juvenile Detention or engaging in Criminal Activity. a 2:1 split of "bad" to "good" things happening. This shows with certainty that just adding policing with no positive reward or outlet for good behaviour results in a flattened cycle of boredom, criminal activity and conviction.

In this model it also seems that Bourke does require a fairly even but high matching of Police and Community Investment. For example setting the policing at 20 and the community engagement higher at say 50 results in indeed a high intake and output of town to sports team memberships however crime rates do still maintain a steady high dictating a more even match between policing and community investment like 40 and 60 to the former and latter to "eradicate" crime. (Of course this will never be 0 in the real world but it is a positive indicator here)

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | A3 MGMT220 43832512

Alex O'Donnell

This insight illustrates the relationship between the funding of policing and community development initiatives, to reduce crime rates in Bourke, NSW.

The insight categorises community members into four groups:

'At risk community members' are individuals who have been identified as likely to commit crime.

'Charged' community members are individuals who have committed a crime, have been caught and charged.

'Community development program members' are individuals who have been identified as at risk, but have also been selected to take part in a community development progam.

'Community members' are individuals who are not classified as at risk.

This insight shows the process of how individuals transfer between categories, with finance as the independent variable. Finance can be altered from a minimum of $250,000 to a maximum of $1,000,000. The finance variable can be altered using the total finance slider located on the right hand side.

Assumptions

Here is a list of assumptions made about this scenario. Assumptions are also found in the story of this insight.

*Bourke comprises of 3000 individuals. 2750 are classified as at risk and 250 as community members at time 0

*The average jail sentence is two years

*The government pays $1,000 per year for each individual who is charged and jailed

*The average cost of a community development program is $4,000 per year, per individual

*The average individual will relapse and commit a crime or be rehabilitated within three years

Affect of Funding on Policing and Community Development Initiative in Bourke, NSW

Natalie Doig

A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.

Clone of YellowstoneEcoClassModel

Albert Boulanger

Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563

Student No : 94040609

Trish Anderson

The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying issues which lead to crime in the community (KPMG, 2018). This interactive model shows how the redirection of funding from the Justice System into Community Programs improves the rate of year 12 graduates, reduces the number of incidents of domestic violence whilst reducing the number of days spent in custody. This model also shows how investment in Community Programs leads to positive economic impacts for the Community as well as cost savings for the Justice System over time.

One of the key findings of the Maranguka JP project found that redirecting funding from the Justice system into the Community has multiple benefits. This model begins with NSW government funding on a scale from 0 to 1000 which can be adjusted using the sliders based on available funding, sliding the scale to the right increases the available funding. The % Community Funding and % Justice System Funding variables can then be adjusted in the sliders to determine how much of the funding goes to the community as a percentage and how much of the available funding gets allocated to the justice system.

Investment into Community Programs is made available by the investments into the Bourke community. Community Leaders in the Bourke Community develop programs and each program has shown to have a positive impact on the number of students graduating year 12 in the community, the number of domestic violence incidents and the number of days spent in custody.

Variables

The current number of Year 12 graduates, the current number of domestic violence incidents and the current number of days in Custody are input into the sliders on the hand panel and the model simulation will show how these figures are impacted through investment in the community over time. These variables also contribute to the growth of Youth Development, Family Strength and Adult Empowerment in the community. These factors result in reinvestment opportunities, which have positive economic impacts on the community. Savings are also passed back to the justice system as underlying issues in the community are addressed over time.

The slider scale on the right hand panel uses six adjustable variables to model how the rate of investment in the community can impact the rate of positive impacts in the community and the rate of reinvestment opportunities that can be achieved. Running the simulation will show the larger the % of Community Funding, the faster the results can be seen over time and the greater the economic impact and justice system savings will be. The smaller the % Community Funding will show how impacts are still positive but occur over a longer period of time.

% Community Funding and % Justice System are a percentage of funding whereas NSW Government Funding is represented in dollars ($). NSW Government Funding is on a scale from 0 to 1000 but the assumed scale is $000’s, where 1,000 equals $1,000,000.

Parameter Settings

With community funding, the amount of Year 12 graduates increases by 31% (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of Domestic Violence incidents decreases by 23% (KPMG, 2018) (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of days spent in custody decreases by 42% KPMG, 2018)

Reinvestment opportunities contribute to 1/3 of economic impacts back the community where 2/3 of the reinvestment opportunities contribute to savings within the Justice System KPMG, 2018).

Assumptions

The rate of impact on year 12 graduating students, Domestic Violence Incidents and Days spent in custody changes at the same rate of % Community Funding available to the community.

References

Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. (Thompson, G). abc.net.au.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Impacts of Community Funding and Reinvestment in Bourke

Trish Anderson

Community Models