Community Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Community”.

 An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011)  Researchgate link   and  eolss synopsis  based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction t

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link  and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

  MKT563: Assessment Item 4     Student Name: Christopher Brockman    Student ID: 1153 2934B        Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents i
MKT563: Assessment Item 4
Student Name: Christopher Brockman
Student ID: 1153 2934B

Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke. 
By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.

About the model
As Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).

It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.


Variables/relationships
The variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
  • Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
  • Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.

Interesting parameters
As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention). 

Conclusion
From the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.


A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem. Changes to original: removal of non-connected variables to simplify view for middle school students. 
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem. Changes to original: removal of non-connected variables to simplify view for middle school students. 
 Description:  This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of ato
Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
​ The Model      The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local com
The Model

The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.


Assumptions
  • Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
  • The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
  • Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
  • Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
  • Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
  • 10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
  • There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
  • The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
  • Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model

How the Model Works

The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.

Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.

From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.


Parameter Settings and Results
  • Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
  • Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
  • Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
  • If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
  • The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development
This model presents correlation between young people who finished University and young people who dropped University. Also, this model shows relationships among youth alienation, crime rate, police expenses, dysfunctional family and percentage of youth sent to jail and youth who were justified, re-e
This model presents correlation between young people who finished University and young people who dropped University. Also, this model shows relationships among youth alienation, crime rate, police expenses, dysfunctional family and percentage of youth sent to jail and youth who were justified, re-educated and found job through employment exchange.

Assumptions

This model presumes that the overal youth population of the town Bourke is 1 000 people.

Variables

Lack of financial resources

Changes their mind

Employment exchange

The level of these variables can be corrected. 
   Purpose of the model   To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.      Assumptions   3000 residents in Bourke    4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk      STOCKS        AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Purpose of the model
To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.

Assumptions 
3000 residents in Bourke

4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk

STOCKS

AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Individuals who committed a crime

CRIME
Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.

JAIL
Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this. 

COMMUNITY PROGRAM
Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.

NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Once an at risk individual completes the community Program

VARIABLES

LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING
Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program

POLICE UNITS
Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time

CONVICTIONS
Conviction rate depends on the amount of active police.

PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE
Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets

SET NUMBERS
Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.

Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.
At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling

Suggested Settings.

Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact

Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate. 

Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
Online Community to grow the use and effectiveness of Health Modelling using multiple methods
Online Community to grow the use and effectiveness of Health Modelling using multiple methods
 Crime Rate in Bourke  Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of t
Crime Rate in Bourke
Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
 
 Description:  This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of ato
Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
  Youth community of Bourke     ​ Youth Crime rate in Bourke  An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care
Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 

Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 
 Crime Rate in Bourke  Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of t
Crime Rate in Bourke
Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
 
 Crime Rate in Bourke  Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of t
Crime Rate in Bourke
Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
 
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
  Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW       This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.        Stocks:         General Popula
Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW

This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.

Stocks:

General Population of Bourke
This is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.

Criminals
These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.

Incarcerated Criminals
When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.

Community Involvement Program Participants
These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.

Variables:

Size of Police Force
The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Funding for Community Programs
This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.


Description and Assumptions:

This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.

Based on statistics gathered from this document:
http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf
​Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.

This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.

The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.

Notable Data Points

As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.

An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.
 Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development​     This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different
Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development​

This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different areas, the town of Bourke can decrease crime and increase their population involvement in community programs. This model is intended to be dynamic to allow the user to change certain variables to see changes in impact

The town of Bourke has a population of 3634 people, 903 of which are classified as youth (being 0-24 inclusive) (ABS, 2016 census).
This population starts with all youths in three differing stocks:
- 703 in Youth
- 100 in Juvenile Detention
- 100 in Rehabilitation


Assumptions:
This model makes many assumptions that would not necessarily uphold in reality.

- Only the youth of the town are committing crimes.
- All convicted youths spend 6 months in juvenile detention.
- All convicted youths must go to rehabilitation after juvenile detention and spend 2 months there.
- The risk rate impacts upon every youth committing a crime and is a  broad term covering effects such as abuse.
- No gaol effect, youths do not return to town with a tendency to re- commit a crime.
- No further external factors than those given.
- There cannot be zero expenditure in any of the fields.


The stocks:
Each stock depicts a different action or place that an individual youth may find themselves in. 
These stocks include:
- Youth (the youths living in Bourke, where youths are if they are not committing crimes or in community programs)
- Petty Crime (crimes committed by the youths of Bourke such as stealing)
- Juvenile Detention (where convicted youths go)
- Rehabilitation
- Community Programs


The variables:
- Community Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)
- Law Enforcement Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.6)
- Rehabilitation Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)
- Risk Rate (not adjustable but alters with Law Enforcement Expenditure)

Sliders on each of the expenditure variables have been provided. These variables indicate the percentage of the criminal minimising budget for Bourke.
Note that to be realistic, one should make the three differing sliders be equal to 1, in order to show 100% of expenditure

Base Parameter Settings:
- Law Enforcement Expenditure = 0.5
- Community Expenditure = 0.25
- Rehabilitation Expenditure = 0.25

Interesting Parameter Settings:
- When Law Enforcement is at 0.45 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.3 and 0.25 (in either order) then convicted and not-convicted values are the same. If Law Enforcement expenditure goes any lower then the number of convicted youths is less than those not-convicted and vice versa if the expenditure is increased.
- When Law Enforcement is at 0.2 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.4 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime and thus detention occurs in a shorter and more rapid time frame. This shows that crime can be minimised in this model almost entirely through community initiatives.
- Alternatively, when Law Enforcement is at 0.6 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.2 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime occurs over a longer time period with more incremental change.



Population Source:

A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
 ABOUT THE MODEL  This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities
ABOUT THE MODEL
This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities
​THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME CRATE    Model explanation:   This model is to simulate the  impact of community development and police enforcement  on two contradict lifestyles o
​THE SIMULATION OF COMMUNITY AND POLICE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE LIFESTYLE AT BOURKE TOWN – FOCUSING ON PEOPLE WITH NEGATIVE LIFESTYLE TO REDUCE THE CRIME CRATE

Model explanation:
This model is to simulate the impact of community development and police enforcement on two contradict lifestyles of Bourke young population - Focusing on people with negative lifestyle to reduce the crime crate. 
Also illustrate the effect of community engagement and Police expenditure on young crime in town.

Bourke town is a local government area of New South Wales facing with complex social issues with high rate of crime.

Young people from 15-24 years’ old

Young people with positive lifestyle: employed, well-educated, financial independent, sport players, involved on community events

Young people with negative lifestyle: unemployed, expelled from school, drug users/dealers, alcoholic, not involved in community program. This is the focal point of the model on how the community and police enforcement need to be strongly involved to mitigate the crime in town. 

Assumptions: (2019)

Dependent variable A: Bourke young population: 1000
Independent variable A: * Community development: from 1 to 10
           * Police enforcement: from 1 to 20

Dependent variable B: Young people with negative lifestyle
Independent variable A: * Community engagement expenditure: from 0 to 1
           * Police expenditure: from 0 to 1

Bourke young population with NEGATIVE lifestyle:

The higher rate of Community engagement expenditure and Police expenditure will reduce the number of crime rate.

OUTCOME:

1) The effect of Community development and Police enforcement will determine the Bourke young people lifestyle as majority of them is positive or negative.

If the total of [Community development + Police enforcement] is 3% covering for the total Bourke young population and above, then:
* 70% of Bourke young population is leading a POSITIVE lifestyle
* 30% of Bourke young population is leading a NEGATIVE lifestyle

In contrast, these percentages will be in the reverse order.

2) The high involment rate of Community engagement expenditure with effective Community program will reduce the number of young people with negative lifestyle to Criminal Activities and vice versa.

2) The high involvement rate of Police expenditure with effective Police Intervention will reduce the number of of young people with Criminal activities to Committed crime and vice versa.

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Student name : Nguyen Thi Nga
Student ID : 11653918
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A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
Online Community to grow the use and effectiveness of Health Modelling using multiple methods
Online Community to grow the use and effectiveness of Health Modelling using multiple methods
  Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563     Student No : 94040609      Trish Anderson         The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying is

Assignment Four - Big Data & Marketing Analytics MKT563

Student No : 94040609

Trish Anderson


The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment (JR) project is a community led program that demonstrates how the redirection of government funding into community programs can address underlying issues which lead to crime in the community (KPMG, 2018). This interactive model shows how the redirection of funding from the Justice System into Community Programs improves the rate of year 12 graduates, reduces the number of incidents of domestic violence whilst reducing the number of days spent in custody. This model also shows how investment in Community Programs leads to positive economic impacts for the Community as well as cost savings for the Justice System over time.

 

One of the key findings of the Maranguka JP project found that redirecting funding from the Justice system into the Community has multiple benefits. This model begins with NSW government funding on a scale from 0 to 1000 which can be adjusted using the sliders based on available funding, sliding the scale to the right increases the available funding. The % Community Funding and % Justice System Funding variables can then be adjusted in the sliders to determine how much of the funding goes to the community as a percentage and how much of the available funding gets allocated to the justice system.  

 

Investment into Community Programs is made available by the investments into the Bourke community.  Community Leaders in the Bourke Community develop programs and each program has shown to have a positive impact on the number of students graduating year 12 in the community, the number of domestic violence incidents and the number of days spent in custody.

 

Variables

The current number of Year 12 graduates, the current number of domestic violence incidents and the current number of days in Custody are input into the sliders on the hand panel and the model simulation will show how these figures are impacted through investment in the community over time. These variables also contribute to the growth of Youth Development, Family Strength and Adult Empowerment in the community. These factors result in reinvestment opportunities, which have positive economic impacts on the community. Savings are also passed back to the justice system as underlying issues in the community are addressed over time.

 

The slider scale on the right hand panel uses six adjustable variables to model how the rate of investment in the community can impact the rate of positive impacts in the community and the rate of reinvestment opportunities that can be achieved. Running the simulation will show the larger the % of Community Funding, the faster the results can be seen over time and the greater the economic impact and justice system savings will be. The smaller the % Community Funding will show how impacts are still positive but occur over a longer period of time.

 

% Community Funding and % Justice System are a percentage of funding whereas NSW Government Funding is represented in dollars ($). NSW Government Funding is on a scale from 0 to 1000 but the assumed scale is $000’s, where 1,000 equals $1,000,000.

 

 

Parameter Settings

With community funding, the amount of Year 12 graduates increases by 31% (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of Domestic Violence incidents decreases by 23% (KPMG, 2018) (KPMG, 2018)

With community funding, the number of days spent in custody decreases by 42% KPMG, 2018)

Reinvestment opportunities contribute to 1/3 of economic impacts back the community where 2/3 of the reinvestment opportunities contribute to savings within the Justice System KPMG, 2018).

 

Assumptions

The rate of impact on year 12 graduating students, Domestic Violence Incidents and Days spent in custody changes at the same rate of % Community Funding available to the community.

 

References

 

Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. (Thompson, G). abc.net.au.

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. Retrieved from https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model​ to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.