MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke
MODEL EXPLANATION:This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.
Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625
About the Model
This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.
Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:
Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.
Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.
Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.
Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.
Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.
The variables used in the model are:
Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.
Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.
Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.
All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.
The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.
There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.
The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.
The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.
There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:
Young Community Member = 700
Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300
Criminal = 300
Imprisoned = 200
Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.
Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.
Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.
An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.
Bourke's Crime Problem Model
This model is designed to make the link between people in Bourke, crime preservation and committed jail rate. Those elements are constantly affected by police, employment availability and education investment. I have simulated to show the number of criminals, jail, and alcohol addicted.
Model has used 4 elements are Bourke population, alcohol addicted, crime preservation, and jail. There are 3 variables: police, employment rate and education investment. These three variable are adjustable.
People in Bourke can involved in many different situations.
#1: They are drink and become alcohol addicts (drink stage). Base on the fact of Bourke problems, I have created a really hight rate drinking people (70% of town).The alcohol addicts are easily committed as criminals (50% 0f addicts) (commit stage). But this number can be decrease if they have higher education rate.
#2: They offended by temptation and become crime preservation (Temptation stage). Crime preservation can be considered and returned back to community (return stage). Otherwise, they convict to bad criminal guilty and go to jail ( conviction stage). The flow rate of conviction is also affected by the number of police. From jail, they could be release after five year and changing also base on the educate rate (release stage).
#3 They can have jobs in engage stage. Employment rate is also affected by education.
Bourke is showed as the number of people in town, set to an initial value of 2000 to represent 100% of people in Bourke
Jail because the criminal issues of Bourke are wide spread so jail describes the number of people who convicted as criminals, which is 20% of crime rate and minus the percentage of police.
Alcohol addicted is the rate of people who usually using alcohol.
Crime preservation is the number of people who are under consideration after doing something wrong or commit a sin. This is the waiting stage to confirm a offender.
Police is a adjusted range number of police in town, which directly affect to temptation rate.
Employment : The unemployment rate in Bourke is hight. This apparently lead to community problem such as theft or drinking alcohol. Employment is made adjusted to decrease te temptation and alcohol addicted rate. Employment rate is increased by going up education investment.
Education Investment: I strongly focus on this element because the belief that the better education creates better community. Thus, education investment in this model could change the release, return, conviction, commit and temptation flows.
There are2000 people in BourkePolice range: 1-100Education investment rate: 1-100Employment rate: 1-400
Observation and Key assumption Not all crime preservation will go to jail, some are returned back to Bourke.Leaving all the variable at minimum, position results in the large amount of crime and after the the strong increasing in jail rate. The amount of jail is opposite the amount of criminals.
Leaving the employment and police at minimum but maximise the education investment rate, the elements widely fluctuate but gradually decrease to 0 after long time (34 years)
Leaving the education investment but maximise police and employment rate, the crime and jail amount almost a half during the time.
Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)
Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)
Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary®ion=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA®ionLGA=REGION®ionASGS=REGION
The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.
Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.
The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investmentParameters:
- Community Investment
- Law Enforcement
Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.
About this Model:
- The Units of measure has been set to months
- Simulation Length is set to 48 months
- It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
- The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
- Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
- Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
- Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
- During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.
- Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
- When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
- Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
- Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education
It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.
Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated.
Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.
Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80
How the Model Works:
1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.
2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.
Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
Youth Crime rate in BourkeAn educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model ExplanationThis simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
44910304 - Crime in Bourke
This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.
Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]
The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.
Observations:Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.
Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.
An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.
Rates:Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation: Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))
Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))
Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)
Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)
Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))
Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.
Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
-1000 Youth Population
-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.
-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.
-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
- Crime – all
offences committed by those under 18
Facility – juvenile detention
- Probation – release from punishment
system – various programs
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate
Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.
This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.
1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact
Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.
This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support Unit impact
Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit Impact
Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.
Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.
Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.
The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.<!--EndFragment-->
Crime Patterns & Community Development in Bourke (44589050)
About the model
This model depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer club expenditure.
- Only the youth
population of Bourke has the tendency to commit crime
further external factors other than those presented have an effect on criminal tendencies
Factor’ refers to any factors that increase the likelihood of youths to
commit crime. This may include exposure to domestic abuse, income level, education
level, family background
- No ‘jail
effect’ - jailed youths do not return to town being more
corrupt than before through learning off their cellmates
- Only 2
outcomes of participating in the soccer club: being engaged by the social
activity and deterred from committing crime, or disengaged and become at
risk of committing crime
have a 60% chance of getting convicted
- A jail
sentence for convicted criminals is 6 months
- The top 20%
of the most serious offenders get sent to the rehabilitation centre for 3
months, after which they return to town in a better state and less likely to repeat crime
- 1 session of
the soccer club participation is 3 months
- Soccer club
participants have a 10% chance of being disengaged
into policing, rehabilitation services and the soccer club are felt immediately
– no time delay
- A high
number of criminals does not necessarily mean they all end up in jail. A
stimulation with risk factor at maximum (0.2) and policing at minimum (0.01) shows high
numbers of criminals, but they all seem to be in town. When the slider for
policing is adjusted to maximum (0.5), the criminals are moved from town to jail.
Thus, a high investment in policing is needed to detect and detain criminals.
- A generous
investment into the soccer club (>0.35) results in a higher number of actively engaged
and enlightened youths who then return back to town in a better state. This has an effect of
bringing down the number of criminals (implications for long term)
- In an ideal
world, Bourke would invest maximum levels into policing, rehabilitation and the
soccer club, and there would be a minimal risk factor for crime committing tendencies.
A stimulation on these settings reflect few criminals, low jail rates and high engagement
in the soccer club. However with the towns budget constraints, this is not
a feasible solution for the long term.
- Instead, a long
term solution for Bourke (assuming a moderate risk factor of 0.1) is to allocate
some of the policing expenditure (Eg. Down to 0.37) towards maximising community
- The rehabilitation centre will tame the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)
- The soccer club will distract youths
from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing
in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)
A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged.
44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework Model for Bourke
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke-Yuxi Wang (44559291)
A Model of the Rate of Adult and Youth Crime and Community Spending in Bourke:
This is a model which displays whether community spending and the number of police can affect both adult and youth in committing a crime and becoming involved in community activities.
The Underlying Assumptions:
It is assumed that adults and youths in the town of Bourke are the populations that we are interested in modelling. It is noted that a high number of people in Bourke are engaged in crimes. Therefore, people in Bourke are tempted or likely to commit petty crimes. Since petty crimes are not serious offences, both adults and youths who commit petty crimes will return to being adults and youths. However, if the crime is thought to be serious, people are sent to jail as a consequence. Once the people in jail serve their jail sentence, they are released from jail and returned to being themselves.
In addition, the community introduced community activities, such as football clubs to reduce the number of crimes. Adults and youths in Bourke can be engaged with community activities and then return to being themselves.
The variables of community spending and number of police are sliders which demonstrate the level of influence on different stocks and relationships when the number of police and community spending are adjusted. The simulation will reflect the adjusted pattern/trend. For example, if we hold community spending constant while adjusting the number of police, we see at one police officer, many people are committing petty crimes and not many are caught and placed in jail. However, if we change the number of police to 30, we can see a decrease in petty crimes and an increase in going to jail. Furthermore, if we change police to 60, almost no one is committing a petty crime and no one is sent to jail.
• There are no other influences besides community spending and the number of police.
• The number of police is negatively related to the amount of petty crime.
• People are not learning from past mistakes.
• Community spending is negatively related to the amount of petty crime, but positively related to engaging in community activities.
• All values and time period, concepts are made up for the purposes of the model and for simplicity. They do not reflect real-life figures or time periods.
• Initial values are as follow:
Bourke youth: 1000
Bourke adult: 1000
Bourke petty crime: 500
Bourke jailed population: 500
Explanation of the model:
This model begins with adults and youths engaging in petty crime. Petty crime activities may include theft, assault or disorderly conduct like domestic violence in adults. Petty crime or the more serious crimes that lead to jail are affected by the number of police, and amount of community spending. The number of police affects the amount of people getting caught committing a petty crime or placed in jail. In addition, if people are not caught or did not commit a serious crime, they are returned to being adults and youths.
Moreover, for the people in jail, they are sentenced for a period of 4 months before being released back to being themselves. This period of 4 months can vary for different crimes and does not represent the actual or real-life time period for any crimes.
It is assumed that the justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will have community activities like football clubs. The purpose of the plan is to reduce the amount of crime and people going to jail. Thus, people in Bourke are engaged in these activities for 4 months, during which it prevents people from committing a crime.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
- Police Force has a negative relationship with
committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
- Community Investment has a negative relationship
with committed crime.
- Family – Police relations is negatively related
to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed
- Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as
this model mainly focuses on this population).
- Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need
more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
- It took six months for Community Investment
(which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family –
Police Relations to work.
- Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
Things to note:
- Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because
of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate
(police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was
used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three
- Those violent families were detected by the
Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad
effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the
likelihood of committing crimes.
- Community Investment in forming soccer team,
trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals
(the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances
of committing crimes of these individuals.
- Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the
best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because
detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the
community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment
campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for
Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
Youth in town: 1200.
Juvenile Detention: 100.
Violent families: 300
Detected violent families: 100.
Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592
More Details about the Graph
In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.
According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.
However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.
The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
MGMT 220 Assignment 3 - 44588917
This is a system dynamic model. This model is simulating the problem that is occurring in the town of Bourke NSW. It represents that as there is a lack of activities for the youth to participate in they take part in crime to satisfy their boredom. So, the model demonstrates what happens to the crime rates of the youth when more community investment is put in as well as what happens to crime when police presence is increased in Bourke. This simulation is displayed over 5 years monthly.
<!- Community investment is distributed equally between all the activities.
2. Community investment affects participation rates and reduces the crime rates.
3. The number of police affects the caught rate of crimes
4. When investment increases crime decreases
5. When police presence increases crime rates decreases but the number of youth caught increases
6. The minimum amount in detention is 3 months so there is a 3-month delay – also detention released occur every 3 months and they are released in batches.
7. The amount being released corresponds to the amount caught
Police (5), Community Investment (0) – this is a based result showing crime is high and the caught rate is low with no police presence
Police (30), Community Investment (0) – it shows crime is decreasing and amount caught is increasing as more police are present
Police (45), Community Investment (0.2) – it displays that crime is decreasing and the other activities are becoming more popular and is satisfying the youths boredom as well. Boredom also decreases.
Police (65), Community Investment (0.4) - crime and boredom have reduced dramatically due to an increase in investment. Also, the caught rate is becoming more frequent. Also sporting and tafe activities are becoming more prevalent.
Police (100), Community Investment (0.5) – Max police and community investment, shows crime, boredom and amount caught have diminished. Sport and tafe have increase rapidly.
<!- Variables involved:
<!- Community investment – is an adjusted variable as it displays the increase in investment in the community showing a maximum of 50% and a minimum of 5%. This variable can be adjusted with the community investment slider.
<!- Caught variable – it determines the rate of being caught by dividing the amount of police by 100 to get a percentage. This is fixed, but is adjusted by the police stock. This variable can be adjusted with the police slider.
Educated Rate - is a fixed variable with a if statement saying once crime is lower than 100 people more people are leaving tafe educated.This is to show that the rate changes once crime decreases.
Leaving rate - is a variable that is fixed with a if statement saying once crime reaches less than a 100 it reduces the amount leaving. This is to show that the rate changes once crime decreases.
Tafe - Trade skills, Hospitality, vet, personal training
Sport - AFL, Rugby, Netball, Volleyball, Soccer, Cricket
Boredom - in the community walking around the streets, at home doing nothing and looking for trouble.
Youth - population of youth
Crime - Stealing, breaking and entering, drinking under age, taking illegal substances, assault and destroying property.
Caught - gets caught by police.
Police - on duty to take of the community.
Detention - jail/juvenile detention is the punishment for the crimes.
Assignment 3 44650701
I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke. In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.
Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250
44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana
Assumptions 3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.
AT RISK INDIVIDUALSIndividuals who committed a crime
CRIMEIncludes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAILOnce an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.
COMMUNITY PROGRAMWhere at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALSOnce an at risk individual completes the community Program
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDINGAmount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITSAmount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
ARRESTSArrests rate depends on number of active police units
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATEProgram completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERSTotal population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
Alice Paisley-Carruthers 44650701
Justice Reinvestment in BourkeA linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The Model: System DynamicsKey Assumptions: Bourke Population: 3,000Bourke Youth Population (Age 8 - 18 years): 1,000
Bourke Reinvestment Project (Joshua, 43976808)
Please view Story to have a quick guided tour to the simulation.
This is a simple model of a community project aiming to affect the growing problem of juveniles ending up in juvenile detention. The model is trying to show a simulation 2 different effects. One is the involvement and investment in the community by introducing Sports Club membership and etc and the other is the level of involvement from the police.
- There are 1000 youths living in Bourke Town- All convicts are sentenced to a 6 month jail term- Each simulation budget has a value from 0-100%.- Policing Budget affects the Tempted Flow Rate and the Charged Flow Rate- Community Investment assumes a 6 month delay before effect of investment- Community Investment only is investing in engaging youths with sports and team games with a Sports Club Membership- Success rate of Sports Club Membership is 100%
- Policing must be a minimum of 50% and Community Investment must be a minimum of 45% to see crime rates go down below 5%- Simulation goes to prove that with almost equal efforts spent on the community and policing, together it will be able to improve the status of the town and drastically decrease the crime and jail rates in Bourke.
Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396
Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.
Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.
Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.
It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.
It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.
Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.
Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.
Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke
Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.
- Initial Values:
- Youth: 750
- Juveniles in Detention: 50
- Petty Criminals: 200
- Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0
- With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
- There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
- There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
- The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
- There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
- There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
- The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
- Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.
- During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
- If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
- It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
- If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
- Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.
Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke
- Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community.
- Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible.
Initial Values - Members of Bourke CommunityHome: 1000Alienation: 120Crime: 80Jail: 200Community: 500Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100Police
How this model worksThe essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial.
A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community.
Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.
After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities.
Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids. Interesting Settings. As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty. Police : 99Community Worker: 90