These models and simulations have been tagged “Crime”.
lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing
crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has
been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support
services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth
population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between
policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
-1000 Youth Population
either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate
of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal
skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you
do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then
they turn to the path of crime.
facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless
“Juvenile Support” slider is used.
purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of
relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The
variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before
a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The
number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social
services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism
& conviction rate
Slide any of
the 3 variables to the extreme.
shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by
Support Unit impact
Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows
that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive
This will again
all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support
Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing
crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when
the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion
is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase
of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have
a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit
Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a
significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion
is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence
of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal
instincts and activity on the whole.
and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime -
“Juvenile Support Units”.
youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence,
limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases
with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have
efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with
a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within
About the model
depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying
levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer
- The rehabilitation centre will tame
the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)
- The soccer club will distract youths
from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing
in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)
A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged.
A Model of the Rate of Adult and Youth Crime and Community Spending in Bourke:
This is a model which displays whether community spending and the number of police can affect both adult and youth in committing a crime and becoming involved in community activities.
The Underlying Assumptions:
It is assumed that adults and youths in the town of Bourke are the populations that we are interested in modelling. It is noted that a high number of people in Bourke are engaged in crimes. Therefore, people in Bourke are tempted or likely to commit petty crimes. Since petty crimes are not serious offences, both adults and youths who commit petty crimes will return to being adults and youths. However, if the crime is thought to be serious, people are sent to jail as a consequence. Once the people in jail serve their jail sentence, they are released from jail and returned to being themselves.
In addition, the community introduced community activities, such as football clubs to reduce the number of crimes. Adults and youths in Bourke can be engaged with community activities and then return to being themselves.
The variables of community spending and number of police are sliders which demonstrate the level of influence on different stocks and relationships when the number of police and community spending are adjusted. The simulation will reflect the adjusted pattern/trend. For example, if we hold community spending constant while adjusting the number of police, we see at one police officer, many people are committing petty crimes and not many are caught and placed in jail. However, if we change the number of police to 30, we can see a decrease in petty crimes and an increase in going to jail. Furthermore, if we change police to 60, almost no one is committing a petty crime and no one is sent to jail.
• There are no other influences besides community spending and the number of police.
• The number of police is negatively related to the amount of petty crime.
• People are not learning from past mistakes.
• Community spending is negatively related to the amount of petty crime, but positively related to engaging in community activities.
• All values and time period, concepts are made up for the purposes of the model and for simplicity. They do not reflect real-life figures or time periods.
• Initial values are as follow:
Bourke youth: 1000
Bourke adult: 1000
Bourke petty crime: 500
Bourke jailed population: 500
Explanation of the model:
This model begins with adults and youths engaging in petty crime. Petty crime activities may include theft, assault or disorderly conduct like domestic violence in adults. Petty crime or the more serious crimes that lead to jail are affected by the number of police, and amount of community spending. The number of police affects the amount of people getting caught committing a petty crime or placed in jail. In addition, if people are not caught or did not commit a serious crime, they are returned to being adults and youths.
Moreover, for the people in jail, they are sentenced for a period of 4 months before being released back to being themselves. This period of 4 months can vary for different crimes and does not represent the actual or real-life time period for any crimes.
It is assumed that the justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will have community activities like football clubs. The purpose of the plan is to reduce the amount of crime and people going to jail. Thus, people in Bourke are engaged in these activities for 4 months, during which it prevents people from committing a crime.
This is a system dynamic model. This model
is simulating the problem that is occurring in the town of Bourke NSW. It
represents that as there is a lack of activities for the youth to participate in
they take part in crime to satisfy their boredom. So, the model demonstrates what
happens to the crime rates of the youth when more community investment is put
in as well as what happens to crime when police presence is increased in
Bourke. This simulation is displayed over 5 years monthly.
<!- Community investment is
distributed equally between all the activities.
2. Community investment affects
participation rates and reduces the crime rates.
3. The number of police affects
the caught rate of crimes
4. When investment increases crime
5. When police presence increases
crime rates decreases but the number of youth caught increases
6. The minimum amount in detention
is 3 months so there is a 3-month delay – also detention released occur every 3
months and they are released in batches.
7. The amount being released corresponds
to the amount caught
Police (5), Community Investment (0) – this
is a based result showing crime is high and the caught rate is low with no
Police (30), Community Investment (0) – it shows
crime is decreasing and amount caught is increasing as more police are present
Police (45), Community Investment (0.2) – it
displays that crime is decreasing and the other activities are becoming more
popular and is satisfying the youths boredom as well. Boredom also decreases.
Police (65), Community Investment (0.4) - crime and boredom have reduced dramatically
due to an increase in investment. Also, the caught rate is becoming more
frequent. Also sporting and tafe activities are becoming more prevalent.
Police (100), Community Investment (0.5) – Max
police and community investment, shows crime, boredom and amount caught have
diminished. Sport and tafe have increase rapidly.
<!- Variables involved:
<!- Community investment – is an adjusted variable as it displays the
increase in investment in the community showing a maximum of 50% and a minimum
of 5%. This variable can be adjusted with the community investment slider.
<!- Caught variable – it determines the rate of being caught by
dividing the amount of police by 100 to get a percentage. This is fixed, but is
adjusted by the police stock. This variable can be adjusted with the police
Educated Rate - is a fixed variable with a if statement saying once crime is lower than 100 people more people are leaving tafe educated.This is to show that the rate changes once crime decreases.
Leaving rate - is a variable that is fixed with a if statement saying once crime reaches less than a 100 it reduces the amount leaving. This is to show that the rate changes once crime decreases.
Tafe - Trade skills, Hospitality, vet, personal training
Sport - AFL, Rugby, Netball, Volleyball, Soccer, Cricket
Boredom - in the community walking around the streets, at home doing nothing and looking for trouble.
Youth - population of youth
Crime - Stealing, breaking and entering, drinking under age, taking illegal substances, assault and destroying property.
Caught - gets caught by police.
Police - on duty to take of the community.
Detention - jail/juvenile detention is the punishment for the crimes.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in BourkeYouth- The adolescents living in BourkePetty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the policeArrested- Adults getting caught by the policeJuvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by policeJail- Adults locked up by the policeCommunity Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically
focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key
Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:
Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.
Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.
Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.
Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.
Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.
The variables used in the model are:
Police- This determines
the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police
officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal
investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming
criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure
causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.
Community Engagement Programs-
The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to
keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting
facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving
lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes
more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.
Community Service Programs-
The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for
youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and
reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service
expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community,
rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are
giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in
expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.
All three of these variables are
adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure
the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs,
limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the
simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.
The model does not account for the youths’ memory or
There is no differentiation in the type of criminals
and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify
juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month
The constants within in the calculations of the model
have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke
population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s
The model assumes that there are no other factors
affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.
There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of
Young Community Member = 700
Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300
Criminal = 300
Imprisoned = 200
Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on
the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police
expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a
minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher
than the other states.
Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and
increasing community development programs and community service programs to
their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to
nearly zero through community initiatives alone.
Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.
An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by
using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community
Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population
being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and
HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH
CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW
MKT563 Assessment 4:
Aim of Simulation:
Bourke is a
town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson,
2016). This simulation focuses on how
implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns
of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town
should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based
Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth
2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of
Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters
is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an
at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve
academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships;
strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).
InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big
Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention
rates) with variables including participation
rate and also drug and alcohol use.
1/ ‘Youth’ are
defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and
24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).
population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke
which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is
3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010).
Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.
3/ Big Brothers
Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that
has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where
initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less
likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use,
compared to control. They were 32 less
likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored
youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and
felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths,
compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better
relationships with parents. Emotional
support among peers was higher than controls.
Population = 435
Behaviour = 100
40% of youth
population who commit a crime are non-convicted
60% of youth
population who commit a crime are convicted
20% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged
80% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged
include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these
levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can
assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over
As can be
seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile
detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of
youths involved in program). By moving
the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour
simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in
terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour
in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure
and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010).
Census Data for Bourke LGA.
Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006
Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018).
Big Brothers Big
Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May
Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters
(BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program,
viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>
Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and
Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.
Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach
is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>
United Nations Department
of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).
(n.d.). Definition of Youth,
viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf
statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke
Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults
and 35-37% youths.
variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a
lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime
rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable
which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is
the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I
settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to
avoid conviction as a repeat offender.
is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I
determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into
decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.
is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months
detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12
months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include
1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer
sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in
the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.
of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100,
is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in
crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.
Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a
lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher
boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage,
where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.