Crime | Insight Maker

Assignment

This assignment illustrates the effects of police fundings and community expenditure on the society.

And how we can improve the Town (Bourke).

Stocks

Population- Population of Bourke (3000)

Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults

Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young

Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.

Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed

Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.

Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.

Variables

Community Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.

Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.

Assumptions

1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.

2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.

3. 60% of the population is Adults

4. 40% of the population is Youth

5. 500 people are already doing crime

6. 365 people are already in jail.

7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle

8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.

9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.

10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.

How Model Works

--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group.

--If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.

--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police.

--Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.

--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.

All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.

Assignment_3_MGMT220_[44178751]

Laksh Taneja

Background

This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community. The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying to reduce the crime rate of the youth due to boredom and their aim is to see the benefits of having a community club. Through the model you are able to see the benefit of an increase of community investment or police or both.

Description of Model

- The model begins of a population of 1000 youth in Bourke.

- 60% of the youth are criminals.

- The convicted youth depends on the conviction rate which is reflective of the police expenditure.

- The conviction rate is at 50% though with police involvement it is increased by 10%.

- 60% of convicted criminals are released without rehabilitation.

- The remainder of convicted criminals that are rehabilitated depends on the amount of community investment.

- 40% of the youth that attend the community club are 60% less likely to end up in rehabilitation.

Adjustable Variables

Community Investment:
- From 0-100
- Effective for community club use and decrease in crime rate

Police:
-From 10-70
-There will always be the use of police in a city, though the police cannot have an uneven ratio to population.

Conviction Rate:
-From 10-70
-There will always be conviction though through the use of police try to be the minimal as possible.

Assumptions

-The population of youth is 1000.

-Only youth are commiting crime.

-There is no increase of individual risk.

-The use of community club will involve youth and decrease their crime rates.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | 43674240

Joseph Kizana

A Model of the Rate of Adult and Youth Crime and Community Spending in Bourke:

This is a model which displays whether community spending and the number of police can affect both adult and youth in committing a crime and becoming involved in community activities.

The Underlying Assumptions:

It is assumed that adults and youths in the town of Bourke are the populations that we are interested in modelling. It is noted that a high number of people in Bourke are engaged in crimes. Therefore, people in Bourke are tempted or likely to commit petty crimes. Since petty crimes are not serious offences, both adults and youths who commit petty crimes will return to being adults and youths. However, if the crime is thought to be serious, people are sent to jail as a consequence. Once the people in jail serve their jail sentence, they are released from jail and returned to being themselves.

In addition, the community introduced community activities, such as football clubs to reduce the number of crimes. Adults and youths in Bourke can be engaged with community activities and then return to being themselves.

The variables of community spending and number of police are sliders which demonstrate the level of influence on different stocks and relationships when the number of police and community spending are adjusted. The simulation will reflect the adjusted pattern/trend. For example, if we hold community spending constant while adjusting the number of police, we see at one police officer, many people are committing petty crimes and not many are caught and placed in jail. However, if we change the number of police to 30, we can see a decrease in petty crimes and an increase in going to jail. Furthermore, if we change police to 60, almost no one is committing a petty crime and no one is sent to jail.

• There are no other influences besides community spending and the number of police.

• The number of police is negatively related to the amount of petty crime.

• People are not learning from past mistakes.

• Community spending is negatively related to the amount of petty crime, but positively related to engaging in community activities.

• All values and time period, concepts are made up for the purposes of the model and for simplicity. They do not reflect real-life figures or time periods.

• Initial values are as follow:

Bourke youth: 1000

Bourke adult: 1000

Bourke petty crime: 500

Bourke jailed population: 500

Explanation of the model:

This model begins with adults and youths engaging in petty crime. Petty crime activities may include theft, assault or disorderly conduct like domestic violence in adults. Petty crime or the more serious crimes that lead to jail are affected by the number of police, and amount of community spending. The number of police affects the amount of people getting caught committing a petty crime or placed in jail. In addition, if people are not caught or did not commit a serious crime, they are returned to being adults and youths.

Moreover, for the people in jail, they are sentenced for a period of 4 months before being released back to being themselves. This period of 4 months can vary for different crimes and does not represent the actual or real-life time period for any crimes.

It is assumed that the justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will have community activities like football clubs. The purpose of the plan is to reduce the amount of crime and people going to jail. Thus, people in Bourke are engaged in these activities for 4 months, during which it prevents people from committing a crime.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke-Yuxi Wang (44559291)

Yuxi Wang

Background:

The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).

Underlying Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)

Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)

Budget: $4,000,000

Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION

The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.

Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)

That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.

The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investment

Parameters:

Community Investment
Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.

About this Model:

The Units of measure has been set to months
Simulation Length is set to 48 months
It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.

Interesting Simulations

Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education

Final Conclusions:

It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.

By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.

Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated.

Clone of assignment3 bourke_43658083

Pavel Burmakin

Model Information

This model is designed to make the link between people in Bourke, crime preservation and committed jail rate. Those elements are constantly affected by police, employment availability and education investment. I have simulated to show the number of criminals, jail, and alcohol addicted.

Model has used 4 elements are Bourke population, alcohol addicted, crime preservation, and jail. There are 3 variables: police, employment rate and education investment. These three variable are adjustable.

People in Bourke can involved in many different situations.

#1: They are drink and become alcohol addicts (drink stage). Base on the fact of Bourke problems, I have created a really hight rate drinking people (70% of town).The alcohol addicts are easily committed as criminals (50% 0f addicts) (commit stage). But this number can be decrease if they have higher education rate.

#2: They offended by temptation and become crime preservation (Temptation stage). Crime preservation can be considered and returned back to community (return stage). Otherwise, they convict to bad criminal guilty and go to jail ( conviction stage). The flow rate of conviction is also affected by the number of police. From jail, they could be release after five year and changing also base on the educate rate (release stage).

#3 They can have jobs in engage stage. Employment rate is also affected by education.

Bourke is showed as the number of people in town,

set to an initial value of 2000 to represent 100% of people in Bourke

Jail because the criminal issues of Bourke are wide spread so jail describes the number of people who convicted as criminals, which is 20% of crime rate and minus the percentage of police.

Alcohol addicted is the rate of people who usually using alcohol.

Crime preservation is the number of people who are under consideration after doing something wrong or commit a sin. This is the waiting stage to confirm a offender.

Police is a adjusted range number of police in town, which directly affect to temptation rate.

Employment : The unemployment rate in Bourke is hight. This apparently lead to community problem such as theft or drinking alcohol. Employment is made adjusted to decrease te temptation and alcohol addicted rate. Employment rate is increased by going up education investment.

Education Investment: I strongly focus on this element because the belief that the better education creates better community. Thus, education investment in this model could change the release, return, conviction, commit and temptation flows.

There are

2000 people in Bourke

Police range: 1-100

Education investment rate: 1-100

Employment rate: 1-400

Observation and Key assumption

Not all crime preservation will go to jail, some are returned back to Bourke.

Leaving all the variable at minimum, position results in the large amount of crime and after the the strong increasing in jail rate. The amount of jail is opposite the amount of criminals.

Leaving the employment and police at minimum but maximise the education investment rate, the elements widely fluctuate but gradually decrease to 0 after long time (34 years)

Leaving the education investment but maximise police and employment rate, the crime and jail amount almost a half during the time.

Clone of Bourke's Crime Problem Model

Srinivas Nalla

Brief Description of this Model

This model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of youth crime rates and domestic violence amongst adults which has accumulated cost of millions of dollars. A new approach has been propose to relocate of spending away from policing and justice system into community engagement which this model tries to demonstrate. Investment in communities represents investing in community worker.

Assumptions

Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community.
Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible.

Initial Values - Members of Bourke Community

Home: 1000

Alienation: 120

Crime: 80

Jail: 200

Community: 500

Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100

Police

How this model works

The essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial.

A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community.

Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.

After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities.

Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids.

Interesting Settings.

As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty.

Police : 99

Community Worker: 90

Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Siofilisi Latu Sikalu

HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW

MKT563 Assessment 4: Kari Steele

Aim of Simulation:

Bourke is a town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson, 2016). This simulation focuses on how implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships; strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).

Model Explanation:

An InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention rates) with variables including participation rate and also drug and alcohol use.

Assumptions:

1/ ‘Youth’ are defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and 24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).

2/ Youth population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is 3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.

3/ Big Brothers Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use, compared to control. They were 32 less likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths, compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better relationships with parents. Emotional support among peers was higher than controls.

Initial Values:

Youth Population = 435

Criminal Behaviour = 100

40% of youth population who commit a crime are non-convicted

60% of youth population who commit a crime are convicted

20% of youth involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged

80% of youth involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged

Variables:

The variables include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over time.

Interesting Parameters

As can be seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of youths involved in program). By moving the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour increase.

Conclusion:

From the simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation of impact.

References:

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006

Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018). Big Brothers Big Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May 2018, <www.blueprintsprograms.com/evaluation-abstract/big-brothers-big-sisters-of-america>

National Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program, viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>

Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters. Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
http://ppv.issuelab.org/resource/making_a_difference_an_impact_study_of_big_brothersbig_sisters_re_issue_of_1995_study

Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). (n.d.). Definition of Youth, viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf

Bourke Community Engagement Impact on Youth Detention

Kari Steele

Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development

This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different areas, the town of Bourke can decrease crime and increase their population involvement in community programs. This model is intended to be dynamic to allow the user to change certain variables to see changes in impact

The town of Bourke has a population of 3634 people, 903 of which are classified as youth (being 0-24 inclusive) (ABS, 2016 census).

This population starts with all youths in three differing stocks:

- 703 in Youth

- 100 in Juvenile Detention

- 100 in Rehabilitation

Assumptions:

This model makes many assumptions that would not necessarily uphold in reality.

- Only the youth of the town are committing crimes.

- All convicted youths spend 6 months in juvenile detention.

- All convicted youths must go to rehabilitation after juvenile detention and spend 2 months there.

- The risk rate impacts upon every youth committing a crime and is a broad term covering effects such as abuse.

- No gaol effect, youths do not return to town with a tendency to re- commit a crime.

- No further external factors than those given.

- There cannot be zero expenditure in any of the fields.

The stocks:

Each stock depicts a different action or place that an individual youth may find themselves in.

These stocks include:

- Youth (the youths living in Bourke, where youths are if they are not committing crimes or in community programs)

- Petty Crime (crimes committed by the youths of Bourke such as stealing)

- Juvenile Detention (where convicted youths go)

- Rehabilitation

- Community Programs

The variables:

- Community Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)

- Law Enforcement Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.6)

- Rehabilitation Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)

- Risk Rate (not adjustable but alters with Law Enforcement Expenditure)

Sliders on each of the expenditure variables have been provided. These variables indicate the percentage of the criminal minimising budget for Bourke.

Note that to be realistic, one should make the three differing sliders be equal to 1, in order to show 100% of expenditure

Base Parameter Settings:

- Law Enforcement Expenditure = 0.5

- Community Expenditure = 0.25

- Rehabilitation Expenditure = 0.25

Interesting Parameter Settings:

- When Law Enforcement is at 0.45 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.3 and 0.25 (in either order) then convicted and not-convicted values are the same. If Law Enforcement expenditure goes any lower then the number of convicted youths is less than those not-convicted and vice versa if the expenditure is increased.

- When Law Enforcement is at 0.2 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.4 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime and thus detention occurs in a shorter and more rapid time frame. This shows that crime can be minimised in this model almost entirely through community initiatives.

- Alternatively, when Law Enforcement is at 0.6 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.2 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime occurs over a longer time period with more incremental change.

Population Source:

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Bourke Community (C.Woods, 44593961)

Caitlin Woods

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Clone of Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Visagan Kajendran

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Jack Sun

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The Model: System DynamicsKey Assumptions: Bourke Population: 3,000Bourke Youth Population (Age 8 - 18 years): 1,000

Alice Paisley-Carruthers 44650701

Alice Paisley-Carruthers

Crime Rate in Bourke

Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.

Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

jack

The following insight shows the level of crime in the town of Bourke in comparison to the levels of Police and Community Engagement

Clone of Crime vs. Engagement

Brett Ely

ABOUT THE MODEL
This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities

Youth and community investment in Bourke

Lisa Ma

The following insight shows the level of crime in the town of Bourke in comparison to the levels of Police and Community Engagement

Clone of Crime vs. Engagement

Brett Ely

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police.

SID: 43626971.

Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.

Clone of Model of Bourke's crime problem

Ray Madachy

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Srinivas Nalla

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

The Model:

I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke. In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.

Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250

Assignment 3 44650701

Alice Paisley-Carruthers

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bethanie Clarke

Draft Insight 43674615

Abanoub Mickaeal

Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:

Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:

Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation:

Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!

- Sam

Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke

Andy West

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Assignment 3 44906064

Arvindhan Gopal Punitha

Crime Models