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Crime

Bourke Community (C.Woods, 44593961)

Caitlin Woods
Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development​
This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different areas, the town of Bourke can decrease crime and increase their population involvement in community programs. This model is intended to be dynamic to allow the user to change certain variables to see changes in impact
The town of Bourke has a population of 3634 people, 903 of which are classified as youth (being 0-24 inclusive) (ABS, 2016 census).This population starts with all youths in three differing stocks:- 703 in Youth- 100 in Juvenile Detention- 100 in Rehabilitation

Assumptions:This model makes many assumptions that would not necessarily uphold in reality.
- Only the youth of the town are committing crimes. - All convicted youths spend 6 months in juvenile detention. - All convicted youths must go to rehabilitation after juvenile detention and spend 2 months there. - The risk rate impacts upon every youth committing a crime and is a  broad term covering effects such as abuse. - No gaol effect, youths do not return to town with a tendency to re- commit a crime. - No further external factors than those given. - There cannot be zero expenditure in any of the fields.

The stocks:Each stock depicts a different action or place that an individual youth may find themselves in. These stocks include:- Youth (the youths living in Bourke, where youths are if they are not committing crimes or in community programs)- Petty Crime (crimes committed by the youths of Bourke such as stealing)- Juvenile Detention (where convicted youths go)- Rehabilitation- Community Programs

The variables:- Community Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)- Law Enforcement Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.6)- Rehabilitation Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)- Risk Rate (not adjustable but alters with Law Enforcement Expenditure)
Sliders on each of the expenditure variables have been provided. These variables indicate the percentage of the criminal minimising budget for Bourke.Note that to be realistic, one should make the three differing sliders be equal to 1, in order to show 100% of expenditure

Base Parameter Settings:- Law Enforcement Expenditure = 0.5- Community Expenditure = 0.25- Rehabilitation Expenditure = 0.25
Interesting Parameter Settings:- When Law Enforcement is at 0.45 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.3 and 0.25 (in either order) then convicted and not-convicted values are the same. If Law Enforcement expenditure goes any lower then the number of convicted youths is less than those not-convicted and vice versa if the expenditure is increased.- When Law Enforcement is at 0.2 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.4 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime and thus detention occurs in a shorter and more rapid time frame. This shows that crime can be minimised in this model almost entirely through community initiatives.- Alternatively, when Law Enforcement is at 0.6 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.2 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime occurs over a longer time period with more incremental change.


Population Source:

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument


Crime Community Justice Youth

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Assignment_3_MGMT220_[44178751]

Laksh Taneja
​Assignment This assignment illustrates the effects of police fundings and community expenditure on the society. And how we can improve the Town (Bourke).
StocksPopulation- Population of Bourke (3000)Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.
VariablesCommunity Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.
Assumptions 1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.3. 60% of the population is Adults 4. 40% of the population is Youth 5. 500 people are already doing crime6. 365 people are already in jail.7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.
How Model Works--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group. --If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police. --Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.
All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.

Police Crime Youth Adults

  • 2 years 10 months ago

43692273 - Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW

Benjamin Muir
Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW

This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.

Stocks:
General Population of BourkeThis is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.

Criminals
These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.

Incarcerated Criminals
When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.

Community Involvement Program Participants
These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.

Variables:
Size of Police Force
The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Funding for Community Programs
This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.


Description and Assumptions:
This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.

Based on statistics gathered from this document:http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf
​Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.

This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.

The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.

Notable Data Points
As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.

An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.

Community Bourke NSW New South Wales Crime Spending Budget

  • 2 years 10 months ago

44763514 Assignment 3 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Kevin Chu
Background InformationBourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney.

The state government is implementing a new measure to prevent further crime committed by installing community programs such as sporting clubs, and classes to develop relationships among police and the community.
Many youth were going from home to juvenile detention and back, and many adults were on a similar roundabout between the community and jail.

Community development programs hopefully will reduce the levels of domestic violence among adults, and petty crime among the town’s youth.

Model ExplanationFirstly, you notice Adult and Youth population is separated and assumed that 50% of adults will commit crime whereas 20% in youth. A certain percentage is given for the number that is guilty and not guilty. Guilty, will receive certain punishment according to their age category and after their sentence is served, they go back to town.
Policing Expenditures shows how many officers are needed to reduce the amount of crime. Officers are called when a crime/mischief is committed, whether they're caught or not and found guilty or not.
StocksAdult Population: Adults in Bourke
Youth Population: Teenagers in Bourke
Crime: Domestic Violence/Homicide
Mischief: Petty Crimes
Jail: If Guilty, adults are sent to jail
Juvenile Detention: If guilty, youth are sent to detention
Community Programs: Sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships among police and “at risk” households, and teaching trade-skills
AssumptionsAdult Population: 2100
Youth Population: 900
Adult Crimes: 50%
Youth Mischief: 20%
Goal
The aim of this model is to illustrate the affects of implementing change i.e. policing/government aid within a community
Trends
The increase of Government Aid and Policing Expenditures decreases the crime performed in the community.
We can see a positive outcome from this and can take into account the affects of proper execution by the state government

Bourke MGMT220 Crime

  • 2 years 10 months ago

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens
Model Explanation ​This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime. 
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail). 

Assumptions
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion. 
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age. 
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.  
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars. 
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Interesting Results
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.  

Crime Government Reinvestment Justice MGMT220 Bourke Australia

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke

Kathryn Greensill
An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke.
The model
This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.
Assumptions:
75% of youth are alienated
75% of alienated youth participate in crime
60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours
85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.
90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes

Variables:
Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.
Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation. 
Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.
Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.
Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.
Conclusion:
The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education  participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.
When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.



Crime Youth Bourke

  • 3 months 2 days ago

44135149_ Muhammad Umer

Muhammad Umer
This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.There are four variables in the model which represents different links to the main re-investment project in the town, which include aid spent on a rehab centre for the correction of youth and also on policing reforms. It also has two slider for the police and aid to increase or decrease the value.The graph generated via simulation shows a directly proportional reaction between aid and police and also between aid and detention centre.There value of stocks in the model has been assumed for the understanding of the model.

Crime

  • 2 years 11 months ago

44135149_ Muhammad Umer

Muhammad Umer
This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.There are four variables in the model which represents different links to the main re-investment project in the town, which include aid spent on a rehab centre for the correction of youth and also on policing reforms. It also has two slider for the police and aid to increase or decrease the value.The graph generated via simulation shows a directly proportional reaction between aid and police and also between aid and detention centre.There value of stocks in the model has been assumed for the understanding of the model.

Crime

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Clone of Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Phillip McDonald
THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

  •      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  •      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  •      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  •      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  •      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:  

  • It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  • Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

  •      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  •      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  •      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  •      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Crime

  • 2 years 4 months ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bethanie Clarke
ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages. 

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

MKT563 Complex Systems Justice Crime Bourke Youth Reinvestment Program

  • 3 months 1 day ago

Clone of 44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana
Purpose of the modelTo show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.
Assumptions 3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
STOCKS
AT RISK INDIVIDUALSIndividuals who committed a crime
CRIMEIncludes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAILOnce an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this. 
COMMUNITY PROGRAMWhere at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALSOnce an at risk individual completes the community Program
VARIABLES
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDINGAmount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITSAmount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
CONVICTIONSConviction rate depends on the amount of active police.
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATEProgram completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERSTotal population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Suggested Settings.
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate. 
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

Community Police Crime Bourke Funds

  • 1 year 2 weeks ago

Clone of Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625

Sarah Herring

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.



Crime Youth

  • 3 years 4 months ago

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Eli

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.



Crime Justice Youth Investment

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Sarah Herring
THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

  •      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  •      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  •      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  •      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  •      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:  

  • It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  • Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

  •      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  •      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  •      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  •      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Crime

  • 3 years 4 months ago

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Hugh

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.



Crime Justice Youth Investment

  • 2 years 3 months ago

Clone of Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Visagan Kajendran
This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.
Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.
  • Initial Values:
  • Youth: 750
  • Juveniles in Detention: 50
  • Petty Criminals: 200
  • Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0


Assumptions: 
  • With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
  • There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
  • There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
  • The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
  • There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
  • There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
  • The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
  • Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.
Key Notes:
  • During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
  • If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
  • It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
  • If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
  • Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.
Jack Sun 44614586

Justice Crime Community Development

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554

Alexander Soetrisno

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Model Explanation:

One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.

Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.

The Stocks Involved:

Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).

The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:

1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present. 

Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.

2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals. 

The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.

--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.

Underlying Assumptions:

-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke

-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.

-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.

Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:

1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.

2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).

3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.

4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results. 

Conclusions:

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!

Bourke Expenditure Crime Policing Punishment Community Engagement Programs Adult Youth Jail Juvenile Detention Positive Lifestyle

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Laksh Taneja
Youth community of Bourke
Youth Crime rate in BourkeAn educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 
Model ExplanationThis simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 

Youth Crime Community Bourke

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

Zaiceva Ekaterina
Crime Rate in BourkeBourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph
In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.
According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.
However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.
The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime. 

Crime Community Bourke Detention

  • 2 years 9 months ago

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