Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396
Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.
Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.
Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.
It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.
It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.
Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.
Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.
Model of Bourke's crime problem
Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.
Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke
Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.
- Initial Values:
- Youth: 750
- Juveniles in Detention: 50
- Petty Criminals: 200
- Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0
- With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
- There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
- There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
- The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
- There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
- There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
- The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
- Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.
- During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
- If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
- It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
- If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
- Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.
Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753
The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.
- Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
- The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
- Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
- Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
- Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
- 10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
- There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
- The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
- Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model
How the Model Works
The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.
Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.
From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.
Parameter Settings and Results
- Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
- Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
- Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
- If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
- The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development
Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104
About/Background:This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe.
Initial Values:Home - 1000Juvenile Detention - 0Sporting Clubs - 0Trade Skills - 0Petty Crime - 0Interpersonal Relationships - 0
Variables:Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs
Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others
Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke
Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated Assumptions: - The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000) - When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated.
Interesting Results:1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs 3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills.
Bourke Youth - 44619472
VariablesThe three variables are as follows
- Support Network: This relates to relationship with family, other community members and school attendance.
- Community Involvement: This relates to the community development programs such as sporting clubs and other social clubs.
- Police Presence: This relates to the presence of police in the community such as the number of patrol cars and also the degree the police are involved in community relations
Assumptions-In this model we assume that Youth will be imprisoned for 6 months and released back into the community.-That from the youth that commit Petty Crimes 25% will go on to be convicted and go to jail while the reminder 75% will become Youth at Risks once again.
Notes-The observations for this model are heavily dependant on the level of each variable. Generally it has been observed that the higher the level of the variables the less we see Youth in the Bourke Community misbehaving.
-It has been observed that if Bourke is to have at least each variable at a level of 7 and above the number of behaving Bourke Youth will increase while Youth at Risk, Petty Crimes and Jailed Youth will decrease.
Police PresenceThe level of police presence will influence the Number of youth at risk, petty crime levels,number of youth that are jailed and also the likely hood youth at risk are to change their attitude and become positive members of the community.
Support Network and Community InvolvementA like to police presence the higher the level for these variables the less the numbers for Youth at Risk, Petty Crime, Jailed will be observed. In addition these variables will have a big impact on the likely hood of a previously jailed youth re-offending.
Bourke Youth:800Youth at risk:300Petty Crime-:100Jailed:100
Bourke Justice Reinvestment, Assignment 3, 44042590
Bourke is a small town, located in New South Wales. The absence of a large number of entertainment negatively affects on a level of crime in town.
The model offers two options to increase the number of policemen to reduce the number of unresolved crimes, or to direct funds for the prevention of social problems and spend budget money on the development of sports clubs and educational programs(such as trading workshops).
Bourke has a population of 3000 people, some of them commit crimes. Green are those variables that belong to the younger generation, respectively, orange marked variables that refer to the adult.
Since adults commit more serious crimes, violent character, then the variable refers to them (as well as a variable Jail). However, it is worth noting that such crimes are committed less often than minor crimes, so for the former to be added coefficient 0.05.
Police presence: shows the amount of police in town
Engagement: the amount pf people, living in Bourke, who are engaged to take part in engagement activities.
Successful traders: The amount of traders, that are well known and successfully finished the course.
Number of successful athletes: The amount of successful athletes, who can serve as an example for young people to play sports.
(These two variables have not so significant effect on a correlation( such as first 2 variables), that is why, the are filled in a different colour(purple)).
The first simulation shows the correlation between
Despite of a large number of police officers (100), the number of domestic violence will still exceed the number of convicts. It could be said that not only police can not catch all the criminals, but also that not all victims submit an application to the police. For example, the do not want to disclose that.
The relationship between the involvement programs and the residents of Peter is much more ergonomic than the dependency between the number of policemen and the police's disclosure.
Therefore, it can be concluded that investing in engagement programs will do more good in a long-run than investing in prevention reforms.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->This model shows the effect of ‘reinvestment program ‘or the expenditure on policing and community development affects the cycles of petty-crime and youth detention, and domestic violence and jail.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]--> Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney. See the map: https://goo.gl/maps/VgNqgMNzJ7H2. It’s nowhere and there’s not much to do there if you’re young. So, a lot of kids get into mischief, and a lot of adult’s drink. Sometimes they’re violent.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->http://www.justreinvest.org.au/justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Bourke Funding consist of Law enforcement funding and Community Development funding only
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Bourke budget only has $400,000
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention stay last for 6 months
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->There is only 2 options as a Youth, commit petty crime or engage in Youth development programs
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->1 unit of Police, Juvenile and Educational program HR and Equipment is = 0.25
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->1 unit increase results in an 0.25 effectiveness increase
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Sport clubs, educational programs and social programs are comprised into Youth Development Program as 1 stock.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Juvenile support relies on encouraging youth who are in detention centers to join youth development programs, if not they will reoffend.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Home
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Youth Development program
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Discharged
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention center
<!--[if !supportLists]-->o <!--[endif]-->Petty Crime
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Reinvestment Allocation – ranges from 0 – 1 , law enforcement investment allocation is 1 – reinvestment allocation. Slide the slider through 0 to 1 to change the reinvestment allocation by 10% l
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Bourke funding budget is fixed to make it seem more realistic (imagine employing a whole army of teachers or police, it wouldn’t make sense)
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Youth Population varies , from 1000 to 10,000 for realism along with its time period (4 years). Slider the the slider to increase or decrease the population by 1,000s
Juvenile support effectiveness rate, Youth development program effectiveness rate, conviction rate, Police HR/ equipment, Juvenile Support HR/ equipment, Youth Development program HR/ equipment
Interrelationship and reinforcing loops
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->The youth population starts as as Neutral (Home) then leans towards alienation and connectedness
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Alienation Reinforcing Loop - Alienation has Conviction rate as a factor as conviction rate increase Alienation increase. This is because as youths get arrested, meaning they’ll have to stay in Detention centers, their friends are more likely to follow on due to them getting ‘bored’.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Connectedness Reinforcing Loop - The opposite exist with Connectedness, as educational program effectiveness increase so as Connectedness. This follows onto the same assumption that youth will always follow peer pressure. The more friends they have in the program, the more likely they will join aswell.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1. <!--[endif]-->Which loop is the youth in?
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Once the allocation slider is used with its minimum or maximum value, the loop at which majority of the youth population is ‘stuck in’ becomes obvious. E.g. Once allocation = 1, the entire youth is stuck between educational program and their home, showing the effectiveness of community development funding. On the other hand, once allocation = 0, the entire youth loops around from doing Petty Crimes, spending their time in Juvenile detention centers, then getting discharged to only commit petty crimes again.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->2. <!--[endif]-->Alienation vs. Connectedness
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Set the allocation slider on 0.8, The massive difference between the youth of population feeling connected with their community and youth being alienated can be seen. The increase in Reinvestment, the increase in connectedness. Try the extremes as well, 100% reinvestment funding results in 0 Alienation rate.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->3. <!--[endif]--> What is the Youth Engaged in ? Educational Programs or Petty Crime ?
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Leaving the slider on 0.8, it can be seen that the there are more youth engaged into educational programs than petty crime. This shows that reinvestment and petty crime has a negative relationship .
<!--[if !supportLists]-->4. <!--[endif]-->More police = safer ?
<!--[if !supportLists]-->- <!--[endif]-->Set the slider on 0.1 , it can be seen that Conviction which has police as a factor is positively correlated to Crime. This means that an increase in conviction rate is equivalent to more youth being alienated and committing crime. Therefore, more police less safer.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)
This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).
This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.
Apprehended- Getting captured by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.
Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.
The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.
1) 3000 People living in Bourke
2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse
3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth
4) Crime- 600
5) Apprehended -
6) Community Group - 300
7) Positive life - 100
8) Jail - 480
Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.
High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.
For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
Bourke's Youth Crime (Rowena Mackintosh 43661041)
Youth: Initialing this encompasses 2000 individuals aged 15-25 years that are currently living in Bourke.
Crime: this denotes the number of youth involved in crimeConviction: this includes youth that have been caught after committing a crime.Youth in detention: the number of youth that have been detained for a period of time after being convicted of a crime.Community program involvement: The number of youth that participate in community programs.
FACTORS (affecting the groups above)Crime Rate: the rate at which youth commit a crime, this variable based upon 'alienation'.Caught: the ratio of youth committing crime are caught. This is variable based upon the 'policing expenditure'Alienation: a ratio reflecting the division between Bourke's youth and law enforcement. This variable is based upon the level of policing expenditure and community program expenditure.Policing Expenditure: The respective amount of money (000's of dollars) allocated to tackle youth crime. SLIDER min: 5 ($5,000) max: 50 ($50,000)
Community Program Expenditure: The respective amount of money (000's of dollars) allocated running community programs aimed to help Bourke's youth population. SLIDER min: 0 ($0) max: 40 ($40,000)
By adjusting the policing and community program expenditure parameters using the sliders shows fluctuations between the groups. For example, by increasing policing expenditure will increase alienation, subsequently the crime rate will increase. Furthermore an increase in the proportion of youth committing crime that are caught, subsequently increasing the youth being convicted and in detention.On the other using the slider to increase the expenditure on community programs, will see increase in the the number of youth involved in the programs. Also the level of alienation will decrease and subsequently reflecting in a reduced crime rate.
Time variable used in this model is Months. This is shown in the relative simulations.
BOURKE Crime vs. Engagement
The following insight indicates the level of crime in the town of Bourke in correlation to the levels of Police and Community Engagement. The model demonstrates how different variables throughout the community can improve the overall crime rate.
Police Expenditure is a major variable in this situation as investing in more police officers will increase the chances of convicting the youth population and placing them in juvenile detention. Additionally, placing an emphasis on police activity will make kids less inclined to commit crimes.
However, our goal is to prevent the youth from wanting to commit crime in the first place. One of the major factors in regards to the high crime rate of the town is due to the lack of activities for the minors to engage in. Providing an Engagement Program is key to keeping kids preoccupied and focused on productive activities. Various clubs will be included in the program depending on the interests of the kids. Since football is a popular activity throughout the community, investing in a Football Club is a wise decision. This club will play a key role in reducing the amount of boredom within the youth population and leave them less inclined to cause mischief.
The insight demonstrates how the motivation to commit crime is reduced when the level of boredom is low and there are activities to engage in. In this scenario, the more engaged the youth is, the more likely they are to continue down this positive path and simply return home after the activity is over (Labeled "Darren") and not commit crimes.
Observing the model, it is evident that Community engagement programs play a significant role in keeping crime to a minimum. The value slider gives you the option to examine the crime rate when police activity is high and engagement program is low & vice versa. The simulation indicates that crime is consistently lower when there is a high concentration on community engagement. Incorporating the data included in the model to resolve the crime problem in Bourke; there should be heavy investment in Engagement Programs while keeping a moderate level of police active at all times to ensure punishment for the youth who commit crime despite the programs.
Draft Insight 43674615
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | 43674240
This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community. The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying to reduce the crime rate of the youth due to boredom and their aim is to see the benefits of having a community club. Through the model you are able to see the benefit of an increase of community investment or police or both.
Description of Model
- The model begins of a population of 1000 youth in Bourke.
- 60% of the youth are criminals.
- The convicted youth depends on the conviction rate which is reflective of the police expenditure.
- The conviction rate is at 50% though with police involvement it is increased by 10%.
- 60% of convicted criminals are released without rehabilitation.
- The remainder of convicted criminals that are rehabilitated depends on the amount of community investment.
- 40% of the youth that attend the community club are 60% less likely to end up in rehabilitation.
- From 0-100
- Effective for community club use and decrease in crime rate
-There will always be the use of police in a city, though the police cannot have an uneven ratio to population.
-There will always be conviction though through the use of police try to be the minimal as possible.
-The population of youth is 1000.
-Only youth are commiting crime.
-There is no increase of individual risk.
-The use of community club will involve youth and decrease their crime rates.
Youth and community investment in Bourke
This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities
Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW & Implications on Local Youth
A small country town in NSW Australia, Bourke records very high youth crime rates and jail population, when compared to the remainder of the country. To tackle the specific causes for such high rates, a Justice Reinvestment Program has been designed, involving all actors of the local community (Police, Education, Local Elders, Community Members) and focusing on prevention rather than repression.
This simple model aims at depicting patterns in crime and redemption behaviour; and how local actions, investments and resources can impact Bourke youth, positively or negatively. Multiple variables can be manipulated to assess results and outcomes.
- Youth Population – total youth population in the town of Bourke
- Disengaged Youth – youth showing a Negative Behaviour. They have either left school, are affected by drug and/or alcohol consumption, and/or domestic violence. They need to be taken care of, otherwise they might engage in offences
- Problem Youth – youth having committed an offence
- Court Appearance – Problem Youth having been arrested, thanks to local police. Stock is affected by Police Budget variable
- Jailed – youth having been convicted and sent to prison
- Youth in Community Programs – youth population either out of prison and repenting; or Problem Youth enrolling in Community Activity
- Engaged Youth – youth showing a Positive Behaviour. The final objective of this Justice Reinvestment program
- School Attendance – a critical factor to re-engage Disengaged Youth
- Crime Rate – percentage of Disengaged Youth committing offences
- Police Budget – affects number of Problem Youth being brought to justice. Can be manipulated between 0 (absolutely no police in Bourke) to 100 (local police reinforcement and 24/7 surveillance), both being theoretical options
- Reoffending Rate – percentage of Youth committing offences again, after their release from Jail
- Community Programs Funding – amount spent on various community programs, such as training and apprenticeship; counselling; preventive police home visits; learner driver classes; sports; and cultural connections program. Funding impacts 3 types of Youth:
- Disengaged Youth joining back community
- Problem Youth entering Community Programs
- Youth repenting after being released from Jail, and entering Community Programs
- Bourke Youth Population = 1.000
- Crime rate in Disengaged Youth = 70%
- Reoffending Rate = 30%
- Police Budget = 40
- Community Programs Funding = 60
There is no silver bullet solution to the youth crime problem in Bourke NSW. However, with the suggested combination of Police Budget and Community Program Funding, positive results appear from Year 3 onwards: even with the occasional spike of reoffenders and subsequent Problem Youth, overall Engaged Youth population increases, reaching 70% of total Youth Population on Year 4 and increasing.
Community Programs Funding has the biggest impact towards the program objective, as it helps creating positive reinforcement and life opportunities for Bourke youth at different disengagement stages.
Assignment 3 44906064
There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.
The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.
The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.
The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.
To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
. 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.
. 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.
. 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.
MKT563 Ass 4 - Complex systems - Justice Reinvestment Project in the town of Bourke
The town of Bourke is in north-west New South Wales and became the first pilot site to implement an Aboriginal-let model of justice reinvestment in 2013, known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. The project aimed to demonstrate that sustainable outcomes can be achieved by redirecting funding to the underlying causes of youth crime.
This complex systems model depicts the relationships between different players and helps simulate youth crime patterns when influenced by funded community engagement activities, fluctuating levels of alienation, and police funding over a period of 2 years. The funding of community engagement activities aims to increase youth participation and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.
75% of Bourke’s youth are disengaged from society.
25% of Bourke’s youth are engaged with society.
50% of Bourke’s engaged youth are not interested in the community activities.
60% of disengaged youth are alienated.
Police expenditure: 30
Community engagement expenditure: 60
Youth of Bourke
Total youth population in Bourke. We are assuming there are 500 youths susceptible to committing crime within Bourke.
Community programs aimed at youths which could include sports, arts and cultural programs, counselling, support groups, learner driving school, school holiday programs and health and development checks.
Youths who are not engaged in positive community activities and are at risk of committing criminal activities. These youths may be affected by domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol or abuse.
Youths who are engaged in society in a positive way. The aim of this program is to have all youths positively engaged in Bourke’s community.
Youths who have committed a criminal offence.
Youths who are found guilty of a criminal offence and are now in prison or detention.
Youths who have left prison/detention and are now attending rehabilitation programs. This rehabilitation should decrease the likelihood of youths re-offending.
Funding for police presence to decrease the number of youths participating in criminal activities and whether they are convicted and imprisoned. If youths are imprisoned, police expenditure can also help move them towards rehabilitation to lessen the chance of re-offence.
Community engagement expenditure
Funding of community activities aimed at the youth of Bourke. These activities are designed to positively impact the lives of youth and lessen the chance of alienation and disengagement from the community.
Contributing factors to alienation of youths in Bourke include domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol, abuse, homelessness, and lack of education.
The rate at which Bourke’s youth attend school or vocational education and training courses (VET) to further their education and increase their engagement in the community.
This complex model indicates the impact of only a few variables, yet there are many more that can be considered. However, this model shows that over a period of 2 years, the combination of community engagement funding, police funding and education can improve the lives of Bourke’s susceptible youth. The most significant impact is made by the community engagement funding. If this funding is decreased, the rate of engaged youth decreases, and the rate of disengaged youth does not improve.
Bourke Reinvestment Project (Joshua, 43976808)
Please view Story to have a quick guided tour to the simulation.
This is a simple model of a community project aiming to affect the growing problem of juveniles ending up in juvenile detention. The model is trying to show a simulation 2 different effects. One is the involvement and investment in the community by introducing Sports Club membership and etc and the other is the level of involvement from the police.
- There are 1000 youths living in Bourke Town- All convicts are sentenced to a 6 month jail term- Each simulation budget has a value from 0-100%.- Policing Budget affects the Tempted Flow Rate and the Charged Flow Rate- Community Investment assumes a 6 month delay before effect of investment- Community Investment only is investing in engaging youths with sports and team games with a Sports Club Membership- Success rate of Sports Club Membership is 100%
- Policing must be a minimum of 50% and Community Investment must be a minimum of 45% to see crime rates go down below 5%- Simulation goes to prove that with almost equal efforts spent on the community and policing, together it will be able to improve the status of the town and drastically decrease the crime and jail rates in Bourke.
44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.
This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.
For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).
There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.
All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.
The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).
Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.
Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.
Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.
This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.
MGMT220-Bourke Youth Crime (Choong 44626525)
The Model shows the interaction between the towns youth, Juvenile detention and the youth center. With 250 youth in town and none in either juvenile detention or the youth center
Youth who enroll in the community center will become educated resulting in a reduction of offences due to the reduced alienation towards law enforcement and more practical thinking.
The offence rate of youths is mitigated by the youth redevelopment program to stop re-offences. And amplified by youth alienation.
Offenders who are convicted will spend a 2 year period in Juvenile Detention before they are released. The amount of convictions are related to the amount of police in the town.
Both the youth redevelopment program and the Community center are reliant on the funding for youth provided by the government.
The two sliders relate to amount of police affecting the amount of convictions and youth in Detention whereas the funding for youth affects the offence rate and enrollment rate. Both are set to increase in discrete increments.