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Crime

Clone of Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Hamza Razi

Model Explanation:
This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW. 
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.


Assumptions
Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation. 

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate


Variables

Positive and Negative Influences
The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.  

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders. 


Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.
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Crime Marketing

  • 1 year 3 months ago

Clone of Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

Zaiceva Ekaterina
Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Crime Community Police Youth

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Clone of Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

Aidan Kinnunen
Crime Rate in BourkeBourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph
In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.
According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.
However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.
The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime. 

Crime Community Bourke Detention

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Srinivas Nalla
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Carlo
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 1 year 2 months ago

Clone of 44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens
Model Explanation ​This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime. 
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail). 

Assumptions
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion. 
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age. 
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.  
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars. 
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Interesting Results
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.  

Crime Government Reinvestment Justice MGMT220 Bourke Australia

  • 2 years 11 months ago

Clone of Assignment 3 44650701

Vinzaris
​Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

The Model:

I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke.  In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.


Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250

Crime BEHAVIOUR

  • 3 years 9 months ago

Clone of Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Srinivas Nalla
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 9 months 2 weeks ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Harikrishna Elaprolu
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Shyam Sunder Raju Anantha Kumar
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625

Abdul Faheem Mohed

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.



Crime Youth

  • 9 months 2 weeks ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->

Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Zaiceva Ekaterina
Youth community of Bourke
Youth Crime rate in BourkeAn educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 
Model ExplanationThis simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 

Youth Crime Community Bourke

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Clone of assignment3 bourke_43658083

Pavel Burmakin
​Background:The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).
 
Underlying Assumptions:
Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)
Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)
Budget: $4,000,000
Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION
The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.

Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.
The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investmentParameters: 
  1. Community Investment
  2. Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.
About this Model:
  • The Units of measure has been set to months
  • Simulation Length is set to 48 months
  • It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
  • The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
  • Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
  • Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
  • Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
  • During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.
Interesting Simulations
  • Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
  • When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
  • Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
  • Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education
Final Conclusions:
It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.
Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated. 

Crime Community Development Bourke

  • 1 year 3 months ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 4 days ago

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 11 months 5 days ago

Clone of Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Hamza Razi

Model Explanation:
This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW. 
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.


Assumptions
Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation. 

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate


Variables

Positive and Negative Influences
The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.  

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders. 


Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.
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Crime Marketing

  • 1 year 3 months ago

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