Victoria Jakubowski 43300936
Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options
Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being adults, and 2000 being youth.
This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program chooses to increase punishment for crime, or invest in prevention programs to help the community better themselves and avoid trouble. The overall aim is to reduce imprisonment.
Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when there is an increase in punishment and more policing. Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when preventative measures have been put in place. All variables are given an estimated rate, though the rate is not fixed and viewers are able to adjust the rates using the appropriate slider bars, as limited information has been provided at this given time in relation to the specified rates.
The slider bars for the youth have been given a range of -2000 to 2000 as the population of youth is 2000 and those are the limits. Same applies to the slider bars specified for the adults, though here the limit is from -1000 to 1000.
By setting parameter settings to a value lower than 0, you will start to see a decline in arrests. By setting the parameter over 0 you will see an increase.
Stocks have been colour coded to represent their lines shown in the simulated graph.
StocksPopulation- Population of Bourke (3000)Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.
VariablesCommunity Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.
Assumptions 1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.3. 60% of the population is Adults 4. 40% of the population is Youth 5. 500 people are already doing crime6. 365 people are already in jail.7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.
How Model Works--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group. --If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police. --Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.
All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.