These models and simulations have been tagged “Youth”.
lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing
crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has
been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support
services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth
population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between
policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
-1000 Youth Population
either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate
of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal
skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you
do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then
they turn to the path of crime.
facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless
“Juvenile Support” slider is used.
purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of
relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The
variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before
a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The
number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social
services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism
& conviction rate
Slide any of
the 3 variables to the extreme.
shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by
Support Unit impact
Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows
that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive
This will again
all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support
Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing
crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when
the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion
is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase
of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have
a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit
Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a
significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion
is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence
of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal
instincts and activity on the whole.
and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime -
“Juvenile Support Units”.
youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence,
limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases
with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have
efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with
a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in BourkeYouth- The adolescents living in BourkePetty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the policeArrested- Adults getting caught by the policeJuvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by policeJail- Adults locked up by the policeCommunity Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
This model simulates the effect of
Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and
This model can be used by community
member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community.
The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in
community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the
adolescents living in Bourke
adults living in Bourke
common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.
Getting captured by the police
Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development
activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.
Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining
these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.
Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop
skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase
the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can
lead to a positive lifestyle.
Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult
and Youth from the community.
The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This
variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.
1) 3000 People living in Bourke
2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse
3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth
4) Crime- 600
5) Apprehended -
6) Community Group - 300
7) Positive life - 100
8) Jail - 480
Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting
the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and
Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.
High Rate of Engagement- An increase
in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase
but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If
Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero
the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people
in jail reduces to near zero.
combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best
solution for the people of Bourke.The
policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community
development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.
most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as
investments in community engagement activities.
About the model
depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying
levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer
- The rehabilitation centre will tame
the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)
- The soccer club will distract youths
from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing
in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)
A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged.
model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically
focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key
Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:
Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.
Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.
Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.
Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.
Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.
The variables used in the model are:
Police- This determines
the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police
officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal
investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming
criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure
causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.
Community Engagement Programs-
The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to
keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting
facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving
lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes
more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.
Community Service Programs-
The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for
youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and
reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service
expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community,
rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are
giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in
expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.
All three of these variables are
adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure
the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs,
limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the
simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.
The model does not account for the youths’ memory or
There is no differentiation in the type of criminals
and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify
juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month
The constants within in the calculations of the model
have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke
population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s
The model assumes that there are no other factors
affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.
There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of
Young Community Member = 700
Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300
Criminal = 300
Imprisoned = 200
Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on
the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police
expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a
minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher
than the other states.
Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and
increasing community development programs and community service programs to
their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to
nearly zero through community initiatives alone.
Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.
An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by
using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community
Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population
being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and
Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options
Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being
adults, and 2000 being youth.
This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and
the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program
chooses to increase punishment for crime, or invest in prevention programs to
help the community better themselves and avoid trouble. The overall aim is to reduce imprisonment.
Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for
Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Adults’ are integrated to
show the arrest rates over time when there is an increase in punishment and
more policing. Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Youth’ and ‘Arrest
rate for Prevention for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over
time when preventative measures have been put in place. All variables are given
an estimated rate, though the rate is not fixed and viewers are able to adjust
the rates using the appropriate slider bars, as limited information has been
provided at this given time in relation to the specified rates.
The slider bars for the youth have been given a range of
-2000 to 2000 as the population of youth is 2000 and those are the limits. Same
applies to the slider bars specified for the adults, though here the limit is
from -1000 to 1000.
By setting parameter settings to a value lower than 0, you
will start to see a decline in arrests. By setting the parameter over 0 you
will see an increase.
Stocks have been colour coded to represent their lines shown in the simulated graph.
The town of Bourke is located in far-west northern NSW. Although the population of Bourke is only approximately 3000 people, it has historically had the highest representation of youth crime rates and domestic violence related assaults within Australia (Milliken, 2018).
In 2013, the town implemented a community wide program that saw the diversion of funds from the prison system to a range of community initiatives in the area. This model focuses on the efforts driven towards youth development by the program.
1. It is assumed that the youth population extends to anyone aged between 10-24. According to the ABS 2016 census, there are 368 residents aged between 10-24 in Bourke.
2. The retention rate in 2017 is 66%, which is a 33% increase since before the commencement of the project.
3. The high school attendance rate is 71%.
4. There was a 38% reduction in youth crime since the inception of the project.
5. There were 113 licences obtained through the Birang Driver Program, an 83% increase.
The outcomes of this model demonstrate the positive effects that reinvestment of funds into community development programs can have on Australian youth, particularly Indigenous Australian Youth. Currently Indigenous Australian are grossly overrepresented in Australia incarceration rates with Indigenous youth representing almost 60% of the incarceration population, even though Indigenous youths aged between 10-17, make up on 5% of Australia’s total population (Calma 2016). NSW Health Minister, Brad Hazzard stated that the Maranguka Project demonstrates that to truly address this issue, “the solution has to be empowerment of the people themselves” (Milliken 2018). By having a strong understanding of the successful strategies implemented in Bourke, this can provide a model for other areas in Australia that face similar issues.
Milliken, R. (2018). Breakthrough At Bourke
KPMG, (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.
remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty
crime among the town’s youth.
of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities
the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the
threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.
complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can
change this cycle.
there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth
being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation
Simulation of this
model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.
Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.
model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of
Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer
pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).
Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.
- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.
not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs
- Community Engagement Programs = Number of
Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.
Community Engagement Programs consist of
multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events
- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing
- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in
- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of
being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.
- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth
that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.
- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of
Money being Invested into Community Development
15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund
- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in
15 = 15 Active Police Officers
- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment
Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)
0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear
to be corrupt)
- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth
that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to
Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5%
0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke
already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly
unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.
at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for
any reliable intervention.
- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth
that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.
Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.
5% of the juvenile
population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to
commit petty crimes.
- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel
Alienated/have no sense of community.
Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.
Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes
in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.
Before taking into
account those people that are in the Community
Development Program and Upstanding
Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be
i.e. when Upstanding
Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation =
- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)
For every $1000
invested into Community Development Resource $,
the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.
The rate of flow
from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance
of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50
children coming to Community Engagement Programs
we have a percentage increase in Community
- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom
& Recklessness variable.
- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of
Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police
Youth Alienation and
Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.
Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.
flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home
- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables
Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.
Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.
- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.
Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.
- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)
rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile
Detention population by 4 months.
average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre
- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)
rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.
There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually
more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary
- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the
Community Development Resource $ variable.
Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.
every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active
Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.
- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and
Further Negative Influence Rate.
Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly
proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.
Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further
Negative Influences Flow of 25%.
- Inspired (Constant Rate)
rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the
Positive Influences at Home variable.
- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)
rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.
There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community
Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious
Upstanding Members of Bourke society.
- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)
Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%
Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which
lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation,
boredom and recklessness.
EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES
Police Officers = 10
Community Development Resource $ = 5,000
Police Initiative Rate = 1
Community Development Resource $
- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
increasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn decreases Youth Alienation.
Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.
- Increases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing
Community Engagement Programs.
- Increases Upstanding
Citizen due to the increase in Community
Community Development Resource $
- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
decreasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn increases Youth Alienation.
Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.
- Decreases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing
Community Engagement Programs .
- Decreases Upstanding
Citizen due to the decrease in Community
- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
- Decreases Temptation
Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
how Youth just constantly circulate between Home,
Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged
with the amount of children in Community
Engagement and Upstanding Citizens
stocks seem Negligible
that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant
proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community
Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding
that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the
youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any
improvement in the situation.