These models and simulations have been tagged “Marketing”.
This complex system model visualizes relationships between
the investment on police and community and the change of youth crime rate in
Total number of youth population (aged 13 – 19 years old) in
80% of Bourke youth population are assumed to behave
50% of alienated teenagers are assumed to breach of law or
70% of alienated youth who breach of law or rules will be
arrested by police.
60% of teenagers arrested are assumed to be convicted and detained.
40% of teenagers arrested are assumed not to be convicted
70% of teenagers detained are assumed to participate in juvenile
community programs after being released.
70% of teenagers participated in community programs will rehabilitate.
Drugs & Alcohol, Domestic violence, Long-term
It can be seen that the number of alienated youth and the
crime rate will decline over time when investing more on police and juvenile
HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH
CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW
MKT563 Assessment 4:
Aim of Simulation:
Bourke is a
town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson,
2016). This simulation focuses on how
implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns
of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town
should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based
Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth
2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of
Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters
is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an
at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve
academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships;
strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).
InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big
Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention
rates) with variables including participation
rate and also drug and alcohol use.
1/ ‘Youth’ are
defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and
24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).
population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke
which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is
3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010).
Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.
3/ Big Brothers
Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that
has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where
initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less
likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use,
compared to control. They were 32 less
likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored
youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and
felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths,
compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better
relationships with parents. Emotional
support among peers was higher than controls.
Population = 435
Behaviour = 100
40% of youth
population who commit a crime are non-convicted
60% of youth
population who commit a crime are convicted
20% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged
80% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged
include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these
levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can
assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over
As can be
seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile
detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of
youths involved in program). By moving
the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour
simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in
terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour
in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure
and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010).
Census Data for Bourke LGA.
Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006
Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018).
Big Brothers Big
Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May
Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters
(BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program,
viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>
Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and
Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.
Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach
is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>
United Nations Department
of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).
(n.d.). Definition of Youth,
viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf
This model is looking
at the youth in the town of Bourke, in NSW Australia. It has been designed to
look at the impacts that the police force and community engagement can have on
the youth in Bourke, specifically in relation to the crime rates within the town
and what factors impact on this, including unemployment and drug and alcohol
youth in Bourke = 25,000
in Jail = 15,500
in rehabilitation = 6,500
participate in a Community program and complete it = 75%
antisocial behaviour = 2,000
drug and alcohol problems = 6,500
placed into rehab due to drugs = 1,500
The youth in Bourke
enter into a community program, and 75% of youth complete the program and return
to the total youth. The 25% that do not complete become disengaged and wind up
in jail. They complete a rehabilitation program and return to the community
after 6 months. Youth with unemployment are impacted by drug and alcohol use
and they are either detected by the police and placed into the rehabilitation
program, or they are not detected and continue on a cycle of unemployment and
drug and alcohol use.
The Government funding
goes into the community programs and into the jail. The police force impacts on
the disengaged youth entering into jail, the youth who become rehabilitated and
detecting the drug and alcohol use of the youth.
There are two graphs
in particular that are called out in this model. They are:
Jail and Disengagement
the Community Program and Youth Completing the Program
When looking at graph
number one with the sliders on 100 Police Staff Members and $50,000 Government
Funding you can see that the more youth that complete the program, the less
youth there are in jail. We can identify that the completion of the program
decreases the amount of youth in jail.
When these sliders are
decreased to their lowest with 5 police staff members and $5,000 of government
funding we see that the time it takes for the completion of community programs
to be surpass the youth in jail occurs after 11 years as opposed to 7 years in
the previous graph.
The second graph identifies when the
sliders are at their highest the delay and time it takes to engage the youth in
the rehabilitation program vs. the youth in the community program, and that the
youth entering into the programs and completing match up to one another. When
the sliders are at there lowest the rehabilitation sits much lower at all times
and the time taken to increase the amount of youth completing the program is
Overall this model
stimulates the importance on not only the police force and government funding,
but the two working alongside one another for optimum results for the youth in