Bourke Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.
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Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform
Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000) is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016 LGA table: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_crime_stats/bocsar_lgaexceltables.aspx
This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive inputs.
Assumptions in this model are:
1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years
2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population (age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile offending rates
3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates
4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)
5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.
Conclusion:
It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined
with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system,
will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a
reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).
Purpose of the model
To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.
3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
STOCKS
AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Individuals who committed a crime
CRIME
Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAIL
Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.
COMMUNITY PROGRAM
Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Once an at risk individual completes the community Program
VARIABLES
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING
Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITS
Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
CONVICTIONS
Conviction rate depends on the amount of active police.
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE
Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERS
Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.
At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Suggested Settings.
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
Purpose of the model
To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.
3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.
STOCKS
AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Individuals who committed a crime
CRIME
Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAIL
Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.
COMMUNITY PROGRAM
Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS
Once an at risk individual completes the community Program
VARIABLES
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING
Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITS
Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
ARRESTS
Arrests rate depends on number of active police units
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE
Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERS
Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.
At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Suggested Settings.
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.
