EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE
BACKGROUND
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the
implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on
crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime.
The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to
its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model
is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other
stocks.
ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL
1. Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the
youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population.
2. Simulation value for community investment is 40%.
3. Simulation value for police officers is 450.
4. The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the
conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed
more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.
5. The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence
of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the
youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’
such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.
6. The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given
the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier
to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.
7. It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six
months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.
STOCKS
1. Youth population – percentage of youth residing
in Bourke.
2. Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who
have committed an offence.
3. Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a
crime for youth.
4. Community engagement program – a government
expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.
VARIABLES
1. Community investment – effectiveness of the
community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation
value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable
to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.
2. Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the
adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%).
This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is
applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a
decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal
benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the
Law of Diminishing Returns).
HOW TO GET
INTERESTING RESULTS
1.
At 50% community investment, disengagement is
higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is
interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%)
compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there
are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100%
community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.
2.
At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the
conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being
convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together,
on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.
Olivia Miu (44909209)
