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Bourke

THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.

Duncan Hill
Introduction
This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW. 
These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.


Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.


Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle


Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend


Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail. 


Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.


Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.


Bourke Unemployment Alcohol And Drugs Policing Expenditure Community Engagement Expenditure Positive Lifestyle Jail

  • 1 year 7 months ago

assignment3 bourke_43658083

Tiam Rahmati
​Background:The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).
 
Underlying Assumptions:
Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)
Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)
Budget: $4,000,000
Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION
The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.

Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.
The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investmentParameters: 
  1. Community Investment
  2. Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.
About this Model:
  • The Units of measure has been set to months
  • Simulation Length is set to 48 months
  • It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
  • The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
  • Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
  • Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
  • Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
  • During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.
Interesting Simulations
  • Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
  • When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
  • Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
  • Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education
Final Conclusions:
It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.
Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated. 

Crime Community Development Bourke

  • 3 years 1 week ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554

Christine Fadly

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Model Explanation:

One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.

Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.

The Stocks Involved:

Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).

The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:

1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present. 

Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.

2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals. 

The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.

--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.

Underlying Assumptions:

-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke

-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.

-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.

Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:

1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.

2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).

3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.

4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results. 

Conclusions:

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!

Bourke Expenditure Crime Policing Punishment Community Engagement Programs Adult Youth Jail Juvenile Detention Positive Lifestyle

  • 3 years 2 weeks ago

Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Carrie
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Bourke Crime Youth Social Services Rehabilitation Recidivism

  • 2 years 5 months ago

MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Andrew Sohn
Youth community of Bourke
Youth Crime rate in BourkeAn educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 
Model ExplanationThis simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 

Youth Crime Community Bourke

  • 3 years 3 weeks ago

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Ross Williams

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000) is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016  LGA table:  http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_crime_stats/bocsar_lgaexceltables.aspx

This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive inputs.

Assumptions in this model are: 

1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years 

2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population (age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile offending rates 

3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates 

4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)

5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.

Conclusion:

It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system, will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).

Youth Alienation Bourke MKT563-2017

  • 2 years 5 months ago

44910304 - Crime in Bourke

Sam
Bourke Youth Crime Model
This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.
Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]
The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.
Observations:Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.
Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.
An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.
Rates:Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation: Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))
Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.
Enjoy!- Sam

Crime Bourke Macquarie University

  • 2 years 1 week ago

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework Model for Bourke

Josh Stevens
Model Explanation ​This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime. 
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail). 

Assumptions
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion. 
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age. 
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.  
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars. 
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Interesting Results
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.  

Crime Government Reinvestment Justice MGMT220 Bourke Australia

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Assessment 4 - Effect of Community Reinvestment on Bourke's Youth Population

Danielle Skerrett

Assessment 4, MKT563 201930 

Danielle Skerrett 
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University


About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial processes.

Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:

Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*:  669 or 21% 

*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.

 

Results of reinvestment program:

38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories

31% increase in year 12 student retention rates

27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles

 

Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33% 

References:

Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke 


Australian Bureau of Statistics.  (2016).  Census Data for Bourke LGA.  Retrieved from

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522


KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/ 


Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story. Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/ 


Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A., (2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114 


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MKT563 Charles Sturt University Assessment Bourke

  • 5 months 3 days ago

Assignment 3 Youth Crime in Bourke 44661592

jack
Crime Rate in BourkeBourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph
In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.
According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.
However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.
The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime. 

Crime Community Bourke Detention

  • 1 year 11 months ago

44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana
Purpose of the modelTo show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.
Assumptions 3000 residents in Bourke
4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk
Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.
STOCKS
AT RISK INDIVIDUALSIndividuals who committed a crime
CRIMEIncludes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.
JAILOnce an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this. 
COMMUNITY PROGRAMWhere at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.
NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALSOnce an at risk individual completes the community Program
VARIABLES
LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDINGAmount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program
POLICE UNITSAmount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time
ARRESTSArrests rate depends on number of active police units
PROGRAM COMPLETION RATEProgram completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets
SET NUMBERSTotal population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.
Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling
Suggested Settings.
Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact
Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate. 
Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

Community Police Crime Bourke Funds

  • 2 years 2 days ago

Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Siofilisi Latu Sikalu
Brief Description of this ModelThis model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of youth crime rates and domestic violence amongst adults which has accumulated cost of millions of dollars. A new approach has been propose to relocate of spending away from policing and justice system into community engagement which this model tries to demonstrate. Investment in communities represents investing in community worker.
Assumptions 
  • Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community. 
  • Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible. 

Initial Values - Members of Bourke CommunityHome: 1000Alienation: 120Crime: 80Jail: 200Community: 500Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100Police 
How this model worksThe essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial. 
A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community. 
Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.
After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities. 
Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local  sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids. Interesting Settings. As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty. Police : 99Community Worker: 90

Bourke Crime MGMT220

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Bourke - Relationship Among Different Players

Christopher Brockman
MKT563: Assessment Item 4
Student Name: Christopher BrockmanStudent ID: 1153 2934B
Insight Maker was used to model the impact of police enforcement and community development (TAFE, local gym and local soccer club) would have on illegal activities and crime rates of the adolescents in the town of Bourke. By examining relationships between various variables (eg local gym membership vs alienated adolescents), we can identify if an inverse relationship occurs between crime rates and community development in the town of Bourke.
About the modelAs Bourke is a quiet country town, there is a tendency for a proportion of adolescents to become easily bored and alienated throughout their development. This model seeks to determine if there is any tangible benefits of establishing more community structures in an attempt to stimulate the adolescents to make positive changes in their lives (gym, education, sports).
It is assumed if the adolescents of Bourke are undertake a TAFE course, participating in a team or working on their fitness, less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 18 month average in TAFE education (represented as a 10 month delay), to show that it will take time for the benefits of further community development to be reaped.


Variables/relationshipsThe variables are shown in boxes, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
  • Police Enforcement: As further police presence is established, it is expected that more crimes will be solved and will also act as a deterrent to not commit crime for the average adolescent.
  • Community Development: It is expected that there will be an inverse relationship between crime and community development.

Interesting parametersAs the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention). 
ConclusionFrom the model, we can gather that community development is/would be highly effective in reducing crime rates by adolescents in Bourke. Further investigation is strongly recommended.

Bourke Adolescent Police Community MKT563

  • 2 years 1 month ago

Affect of Funding on Policing and Community Development Initiative in Bourke, NSW

Natalie Doig
This insight illustrates the relationship between the funding of policing and community development initiatives, to reduce crime rates in Bourke, NSW.The insight categorises community members into four groups:
'At risk community members' are individuals who have been identified as likely to commit crime.
'Charged' community members are individuals who have committed a crime, have been caught and charged.
'Community development program members' are individuals who have been identified as at risk, but have also been selected to take part in a community development progam.
'Community members' are individuals who are not classified as at risk. 
This insight shows the process of how individuals transfer between categories, with finance as the independent variable. Finance can be altered from a minimum of $250,000 to a maximum of $1,000,000. The finance variable can be altered using the total finance slider located on the right hand side.
AssumptionsHere is a list of assumptions made about this scenario. Assumptions are also found in the story of this insight.
*Bourke comprises of 3000 individuals. 2750 are classified as at risk and 250 as community members at time 0
*The average jail sentence is two years
*The government pays $1,000 per year for each individual who is charged and jailed
*The average cost of a community development program is $4,000 per year, per individual
*The average individual will relapse and commit a crime or be rehabilitated within three years

Community Policing Funding Development Bourke

  • 3 years 3 weeks ago

Model of Bourke's crime problem

Yu Mao
Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on ​Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police. 
SID: 43626971.
Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously. 

Crime Bourke Community Development Policing

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Sarah Herring Assignment Three

Sarah Herring
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This model is looking at the youth in the town of Bourke, in NSW Australia. It has been designed to look at the impacts that the police force and community engagement can have on the youth in Bourke, specifically in relation to the crime rates within the town and what factors impact on this, including unemployment and drug and alcohol use.

 

Assumptions:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Total youth in Bourke = 25,000

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Currently in Jail = 15,500

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Currently in rehabilitation = 6,500

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Youth who participate in a Community program and complete it = 75%

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Youth with antisocial behaviour = 2,000

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Youth with drug and alcohol problems = 6,500

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Unemployment = 10,000

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Youth placed into rehab due to drugs = 1,500

  

The youth in Bourke enter into a community program, and 75% of youth complete the program and return to the total youth. The 25% that do not complete become disengaged and wind up in jail. They complete a rehabilitation program and return to the community after 6 months. Youth with unemployment are impacted by drug and alcohol use and they are either detected by the police and placed into the rehabilitation program, or they are not detected and continue on a cycle of unemployment and drug and alcohol use.

 

The Government funding goes into the community programs and into the jail. The police force impacts on the disengaged youth entering into jail, the youth who become rehabilitated and detecting the drug and alcohol use of the youth.

 

There are two graphs in particular that are called out in this model. They are:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->1)   <!--[endif]-->Youth in Jail and Disengagement

<!--[if !supportLists]-->2)   <!--[endif]-->Youth in the Community Program and Youth Completing the Program

 

When looking at graph number one with the sliders on 100 Police Staff Members and $50,000 Government Funding you can see that the more youth that complete the program, the less youth there are in jail. We can identify that the completion of the program decreases the amount of youth in jail.

 

When these sliders are decreased to their lowest with 5 police staff members and $5,000 of government funding we see that the time it takes for the completion of community programs to be surpass the youth in jail occurs after 11 years as opposed to 7 years in the previous graph.

 

 The second graph identifies when the sliders are at their highest the delay and time it takes to engage the youth in the rehabilitation program vs. the youth in the community program, and that the youth entering into the programs and completing match up to one another. When the sliders are at there lowest the rehabilitation sits much lower at all times and the time taken to increase the amount of youth completing the program is substantially longer.

Overall this model stimulates the importance on not only the police force and government funding, but the two working alongside one another for optimum results for the youth in Bourke. 

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Marketing Bourke MKT563

  • 2 years 5 months ago

Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753

Ted Lindsay
The Model
The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.

Assumptions
  • Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
  • The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
  • Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
  • Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
  • Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
  • 10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
  • There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
  • The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
  • Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model

How the Model Works
The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.
Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.
From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.

Parameter Settings and Results
  • Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
  • Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
  • Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
  • If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
  • The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development

Justice Crime Youth Bourke Community

  • 3 years 1 week ago

Bourke Assignment 3 - MGMT220

Akhil Arya
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AKHIL ARYA - 44680198

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

 

Bourke is town with a population of 5000 people, that has limited offered to keep its community occupied. This has led to a lot of residents to result to mischief and violence, however, the town has had enough and decided that a change is required. Investment in both more policing and community activities is said to provide a drastic improvement in the quality of living in the suburb.  

 

The complex system designed here details the improvements that can be made and can assist in the decision making of whether more money should be invested into policing or community activities.

 

Assumptions:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->The population of Bourke remains 5000 for the entirety of this model (for simplicity). NO births or deaths. NO moving in or out.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->There will be a delay rate for personal convicted after they leave jail and rehab.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->30% of offenders are released directly back to the community, while the remaining 70% will be transferred to rehab for rehabilitation.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->All jail sentences are constant at 6 months (for simplicity)

 

Variables

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Police: slider allows us to adjust the amount of policing involved in the town so we can observe the effect of changing police numbers corresponding to amount of crime committed. Range: 5 – 100.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Drugs and Alcohol: contribute to increase violence and crime being committed, therefore, maybe regulating the number of drugs and amount of alcohol that both minors and adults consume by police officers. Then hopefully crime can be reduced and even prevented. Range: 0 -20.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Community investment: this slider allows us to alter the amount of community investment that Bourke will invest in. Range: 0 – 1.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-       <!--[endif]-->Sporting Investment: Sporting showed great results and improvements to the quality of living in Bourke. Keeping youths and adults occupied in rugby teams is a great time pass and great way to let off some steam for a lot of people. The slider allows us to observe the effect of these investments on the quality of living in Bourke. Range: 0 – 1.

Interesting Results:

Police Slider: 10

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the sliders set at these numbers, we can observe a constant cycle between residents altering from jail and home, as the crime commit remains relatively constant (very slow descent).

 

Police Slider: 100

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the police maxed out, the crime rate still remains relatively constant, will slight decrease but it being so small I can be considered insignificant. From this we can propose that without alternate activities for the residents of Bourke to get involved in, reforming and making a change to the suburb will be a very difficult. Investment into just policing can also be seen as not the best investment of money. 

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Bourke Police

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Bourke Justice Reinvestment, Assignment 3, 44042590

Damir Malikov

Introduction

Bourke is a small town, located in New South Wales. The absence of a large number of entertainment negatively affects on a level of crime in town.  


The model offers two options to increase the number of policemen to reduce the number of unresolved crimes, or to direct funds for the prevention of social problems and spend budget money on the development of sports clubs and educational programs(such as trading workshops).


Assumptions:


Bourke has a population of 3000 people, some of them commit crimes. Green are those variables that belong to the younger generation, respectively, orange marked variables that refer to the adult.


Since adults commit more serious crimes, violent character, then the variable refers to them (as well as a variable Jail). However, it is worth noting that such crimes are committed less often than minor crimes, so for the former to be added coefficient 0.05.


Variables:


Police presence: shows the amount of police in town

Engagement: the amount pf people, living in Bourke, who are engaged to take part in engagement activities. 




Successful traders: The amount of traders, that are well known and successfully finished the course.

Number of successful athletes: The amount of successful athletes, who can serve as an example for young people to play sports.

(These two variables have not so significant effect on a correlation( such as first 2 variables), that is why, the are filled in a different colour(purple)).


Interesting Outcomes


The first simulation shows the correlation between 

Despite of a large  number of police officers (100), the number of domestic violence will still exceed the number of convicts. It could be said that not only  police can not catch all the criminals, but also that not all victims submit an application to the police. For example, the do not want to disclose that.


The relationship between the involvement programs and the residents of Peter is much more ergonomic than the dependency between the number of policemen and the police's disclosure.


Therefore, it can be concluded that investing in engagement programs will do more good in a long-run than investing in prevention reforms.


Crime Bourke

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Assignment 3

Shriya Ghai
Shriya Ghai, 44110081
Crime Rate in BourkeThis model seeks to examine how the Youth and Adult of Bourke affects the police expenditures and community expenditures. The model is depicting about two different categories, i.e Youth and Adult but are connected by two variables i.e. Expenditure on Community Activities and Police.
Bourke : 3000(I have assume that there are a high number of Adult as compared to Youth in Bourke)Adult :2000Youth:1000Expenditure on Community Activities: 66Police: 81
Youth Crime Rate : 0.6Adult Crime Rate: 0.4(Assuming that crime committed by Youth is more than crime committed by Adult)
About The Graph:Youth commits crime and gets convicted but not everyone. The convicted ones are sent to detention where they spend their detention period and are released after that. There are some who improve after this period but there are also some people who recommits crime. Youth are registers/gets involved in various Community activities. 
If people in Bourke take part in community activities, if will be good for them. Government is investing in community activities and police so that the crime rate decreased and more and more people get involved in different activities.
Also, there are two sliders; Police and Expenditure on Community Activities. We observe that if we increase the number of police, there is a significant decrease in crime rate. Feel free to use the sliders and observe how the crime rate and community engagement/activities changes.

Crime Rate Bourke Community Engagement

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Etienne Crouche-McDonald - 44983921 - Youth Alienation in Bourke

Etienne Crouche-McDonald
Etienne Crouche-McDonald's Youth Alienation in Bourke ModelAssignment #3: Complex Systems
About the ModelThe purpose of this model is to show how police and community spending effect engagement levels and crime for the youth within Bourke and how it affects their adult life.
StocksBourke YouthThe initial population of the youth within Bourke. The latest population figures show Bourke has a poulation of close to 3000, with 35% of them being below 24yrs old, so for this model i have assumed an initial youth population of 1000.All other variables have an initial value of 0.Engaged YouthYouth within Bourke who are engaged with the community and at a low risk of commiting crime.Alienated YouthYouth within the community who feel alienated and therefore at a higher risk of commiting crime.Jailed YouthYouth who have been incarcerated.Released YouthThose who have been released from jail.Engaged AdultsThose who have grown up to become adults who are at a low risk of commiting crime.Disengaged AdultsThose who have grown up to become adults at a high risk of commiting crime.
VariablesPolice SpendingThis is how much funding the police department is recieving. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.Its affect on Jailed Youth and Released Youth becomes stronger as the number of Jailed Youth increases.Community SpendingThis is how much funding is going into community programs. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.
Its effect on Engaged Youth becomes stronger as the number of Engaged Youth increases.
BirthsThis is the rate of births which i have assumed to be 100 per year. This is fixed so there is a constant flow into Bourke Youth.AgeingThis is the rate at which the youth ages out of the youth category. I have set this as a constant. - 10% of Engaged youth age out every year.- 5% of Alienated and Jailed youth age out every year.
Interesting Results1. Set both sliders to 1 and it will more disengaged adults than engaged.2. Set both sliders to 0.5 and it will show more engaged adults than disengaged

Youth Bourke Alienation

  • 2 years 1 week ago

44839960 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Timothy Tsang
AimThe purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.
Assumptions
This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.
VariablesPolice Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted
Patterns
When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.
Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.
SuggestionsConviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)
The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.A combination of these would be ideal.

Bourke Policing Community Development

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44909209

Olivia Miu

EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE


BACKGROUND
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime. 

The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other stocks.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL

1.    Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population. 

2.    Simulation value for community investment is 40%.

3.    Simulation value for police officers is 450. 

4.    The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.

5.   The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’ such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.

6.    The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.

7.    It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.

STOCKS

1.    Youth population – percentage of youth residing in Bourke.

2.    Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who have committed an offence.

3.    Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a crime for youth.

4.    Community engagement program – a government expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.

VARIABLES

1.    Community investment – effectiveness of the community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.

2.     Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%). This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the Law of Diminishing Returns).

HOW TO GET INTERESTING RESULTS

1.     At 50% community investment, disengagement is higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%) compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100% community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.

2.     At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together, on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.


Olivia Miu (44909209)

Bourke MGMT220 Youth Crime

  • 2 years 1 week ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)

Umang Snehi

INTRODUCTION 

​This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).

This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.

STOCKS-

Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke            

Adult- The adults living in Bourke

Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.

Apprehended- Getting captured by the police

Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.

Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.

VARIABLE-

Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.

The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.

ASSUMPTION- 

1) 3000 People living in Bourke

2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse

3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth

4) Crime- 600

5) Apprehended - 

6) Community Group - 300

7) Positive life - 100

8) Jail - 480

SUGGESTED SETTING

Positive Lifestyle lead by the community-      Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.

 

High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

 

CONCLUSION

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.

For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Bourke Youth Adult Crime Police Positive Lifestyle

  • 2 years 1 week ago

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