These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.
AKHIL ARYA - 44680198
Reinvestment in Bourke
town with a population of 5000 people, that has limited offered to keep its
community occupied. This has led to a lot of residents to result to mischief
and violence, however, the town has had enough and decided that a change is
required. Investment in both more policing and community activities is said to
provide a drastic improvement in the quality of living in the suburb.
system designed here details the improvements that can be made and can assist
in the decision making of whether more money should be invested into policing
or community activities.
population of Bourke remains 5000 for the entirety of this model (for
simplicity). NO births or deaths. NO moving in or out.
will be a delay rate for personal convicted after they leave jail and rehab.
of offenders are released directly back to the community, while the remaining
70% will be transferred to rehab for rehabilitation.
jail sentences are constant at 6 months (for simplicity)
slider allows us to adjust the amount of policing involved in the town so we
can observe the effect of changing police numbers corresponding to amount of crime
committed. Range: 5 – 100.
and Alcohol: contribute to increase violence and crime being committed,
therefore, maybe regulating the number of drugs and amount of alcohol that both
minors and adults consume by police officers. Then hopefully crime can be
reduced and even prevented. Range: 0 -20.
investment: this slider allows us to alter the amount of community investment
that Bourke will invest in. Range: 0 – 1.
Investment: Sporting showed great results and improvements to the quality of
living in Bourke. Keeping youths and adults occupied in rugby teams is a great
time pass and great way to let off some steam for a lot of people. The slider
allows us to observe the effect of these investments on the quality of living
in Bourke. Range: 0 – 1.
Alcohol Slider: 17
sliders set at these numbers, we can observe a constant cycle between residents
altering from jail and home, as the crime commit remains relatively constant
(very slow descent).
police maxed out, the crime rate still remains relatively constant, will slight
decrease but it being so small I can be considered insignificant. From this we
can propose that without alternate activities for the residents of Bourke to
get involved in, reforming and making a change to the suburb will be a very
difficult. Investment into just policing can also be seen as not the best investment
lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing
crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has
been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support
services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth
population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between
policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
-1000 Youth Population
either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate
of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal
skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you
do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then
they turn to the path of crime.
facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless
“Juvenile Support” slider is used.
purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of
relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The
variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before
a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The
number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social
services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism
& conviction rate
Slide any of
the 3 variables to the extreme.
shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by
Support Unit impact
Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows
that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive
This will again
all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support
Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing
crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when
the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion
is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase
of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have
a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit
Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a
significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion
is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence
of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal
instincts and activity on the whole.
and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime -
“Juvenile Support Units”.
youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence,
limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases
with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have
efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with
a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in BourkeYouth- The adolescents living in BourkePetty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the policeArrested- Adults getting caught by the policeJuvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by policeJail- Adults locked up by the policeCommunity Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.
600 alienated people
480 people committing crime
250 people arrested awaiting Trial
500 people in Jail
1000 people active in Community Groups
6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle
20% of youth and adults will become
disengaged with society
80% of alienated people are at risk of
committing a crime
20% of alienated people become re-engaged
in society by their own will
90% of those arrested are put in jail and
10% are not charged
80% of youth and adults join potentially
will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend
Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.
The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.
With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.
An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.
If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.
Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform
Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of
Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000)
is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016 LGA
This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth
alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is
achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive
Assumptions in this model are:
1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years
2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population
(age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang
Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile
3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive
inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates
4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables
directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus
signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)
5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double
negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed
in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable
social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence
rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically
positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented
as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and
Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.
It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined
with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system,
will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a
reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).
Assessment 4, MKT563 201930
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University
About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect
the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in
previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an
effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program
is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is
also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back
into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial
Based on 2016 Census data:
Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*: 669 or 21%
*For the purposes of this model, “youth”
is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.
Results of reinvestment program:
38% reduction in charges across the top
five juvenile offence categories
31% increase in year 12 student retention
27% reduction in bail breaches by
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33%
Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates
plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
Australian Bureau of
Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke
LGA. Retrieved from
KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka
Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story.
Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A.,
(2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving
young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
This model is looking
at the youth in the town of Bourke, in NSW Australia. It has been designed to
look at the impacts that the police force and community engagement can have on
the youth in Bourke, specifically in relation to the crime rates within the town
and what factors impact on this, including unemployment and drug and alcohol
youth in Bourke = 25,000
in Jail = 15,500
in rehabilitation = 6,500
participate in a Community program and complete it = 75%
antisocial behaviour = 2,000
drug and alcohol problems = 6,500
placed into rehab due to drugs = 1,500
The youth in Bourke
enter into a community program, and 75% of youth complete the program and return
to the total youth. The 25% that do not complete become disengaged and wind up
in jail. They complete a rehabilitation program and return to the community
after 6 months. Youth with unemployment are impacted by drug and alcohol use
and they are either detected by the police and placed into the rehabilitation
program, or they are not detected and continue on a cycle of unemployment and
drug and alcohol use.
The Government funding
goes into the community programs and into the jail. The police force impacts on
the disengaged youth entering into jail, the youth who become rehabilitated and
detecting the drug and alcohol use of the youth.
There are two graphs
in particular that are called out in this model. They are:
Jail and Disengagement
the Community Program and Youth Completing the Program
When looking at graph
number one with the sliders on 100 Police Staff Members and $50,000 Government
Funding you can see that the more youth that complete the program, the less
youth there are in jail. We can identify that the completion of the program
decreases the amount of youth in jail.
When these sliders are
decreased to their lowest with 5 police staff members and $5,000 of government
funding we see that the time it takes for the completion of community programs
to be surpass the youth in jail occurs after 11 years as opposed to 7 years in
the previous graph.
The second graph identifies when the
sliders are at their highest the delay and time it takes to engage the youth in
the rehabilitation program vs. the youth in the community program, and that the
youth entering into the programs and completing match up to one another. When
the sliders are at there lowest the rehabilitation sits much lower at all times
and the time taken to increase the amount of youth completing the program is
Overall this model
stimulates the importance on not only the police force and government funding,
but the two working alongside one another for optimum results for the youth in
remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty
crime among the town’s youth.
of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities
the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the
threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.
complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can
change this cycle.
there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth
being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation
Simulation of this
model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.
Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.
model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of
Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer
pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).
Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.
- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.
not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs
- Community Engagement Programs = Number of
Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.
Community Engagement Programs consist of
multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events
- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing
- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in
- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of
being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.
- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth
that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.
- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of
Money being Invested into Community Development
15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund
- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in
15 = 15 Active Police Officers
- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment
Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)
0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear
to be corrupt)
- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth
that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to
Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5%
0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke
already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly
unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.
at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for
any reliable intervention.
- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth
that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.
Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.
5% of the juvenile
population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to
commit petty crimes.
- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel
Alienated/have no sense of community.
Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.
Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes
in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.
Before taking into
account those people that are in the Community
Development Program and Upstanding
Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be
i.e. when Upstanding
Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation =
- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)
For every $1000
invested into Community Development Resource $,
the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.
The rate of flow
from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance
of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50
children coming to Community Engagement Programs
we have a percentage increase in Community
- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom
& Recklessness variable.
- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of
Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police
Youth Alienation and
Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.
Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.
flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home
- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables
Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.
Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.
- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.
Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.
- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)
rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile
Detention population by 4 months.
average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre
- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)
rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.
There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually
more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary
- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the
Community Development Resource $ variable.
Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.
every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active
Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.
- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)
rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and
Further Negative Influence Rate.
Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly
proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.
Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further
Negative Influences Flow of 25%.
- Inspired (Constant Rate)
rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the
Positive Influences at Home variable.
- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)
rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.
There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community
Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious
Upstanding Members of Bourke society.
- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)
Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%
Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which
lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation,
boredom and recklessness.
EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES
Police Officers = 10
Community Development Resource $ = 5,000
Police Initiative Rate = 1
Community Development Resource $
- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
increasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn decreases Youth Alienation.
Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.
- Increases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing
Community Engagement Programs.
- Increases Upstanding
Citizen due to the increase in Community
Community Development Resource $
- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore
decreasing Community Engagement Programs,
which in turn increases Youth Alienation.
Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.
- Decreases Active
Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing
Community Engagement Programs .
- Decreases Upstanding
Citizen due to the decrease in Community
- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
- Decreases Temptation
Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
how Youth just constantly circulate between Home,
Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged
with the amount of children in Community
Engagement and Upstanding Citizens
stocks seem Negligible
that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant
proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community
Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding
that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the
youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any
improvement in the situation.