Bourke Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.

Related tagsCrimeYouth

​This model describe the relationships between alienation in young people, police intervention and community support in Bourke area.    Youth alienation from society or family values is main cause of juvenile crime.   Bourke have the highest rate of juvenile detection in NSW. Juvenile justice system
​This model describe the relationships between alienation in young people, police intervention and community support in Bourke area.

Youth alienation from society or family values is main cause of juvenile crime.
Bourke have the highest rate of juvenile detection in NSW. Juvenile justice system exposes involved youth to negative influences, arresting their development, interrupting connections to school, family, and work , and increases the likelihood of further involvement. It also affects their development and opportunities in a variety of ways, such as impaired occupational functioning and higher unemployment.

Reinvesting the costs of court charges and juvenile detention in education programs, community initiative and police reforms, will increase the proportion of youth positively involved in society reducing the costs of justice system.

Population characteristic: 
Bourke population is 2634 (Census 2016) with a youth population aged 10-24 of ~460 (17.5%).

Assumptions:
For this model we assume the following:
25% of youth population is engaged and 75% of youth population is disengaged
Of the disengaged youth population, 50% is involved in a minor crime/low offence and then 75% charged with detention.
After juvenile detention, only a 30% is re-engaged in a positive life-style

Variables:
Change in education system to increase the proportion of youth engaged in a positive life-style:
- Increase availability of short courses to achieve a qualification
- Information about consequences of small crime
- Inclusion in dedicated internship programs

Community based initiatives to support youth at risk and to reconnect them with local society:
- Engaging youth in social activity to build a community connection
- Improve services available 
Police protocols reformed to reduce proportion of youth charged with a small offence to present in Court:
- small charges escalate to higher level of crime for breaking the conditions
- Adapting police protocols to reduce bail enfrangment or apply alternative methods

Conclusions:
This model is showing a decrease of youth disengaged improving education and community activities. 
The reduction of youth in court and then detention will reduce the costs of the justice system making funds available to invest in policy change in the police department/justice to adapt to specific cohort of youth in Bourke.
When all the variable are not implemented the model is showing the situation at 2016. Changing the proportion of investments in the three variables will improve the results if youth involved in society and not charged with crime.

References:
The Guardian news article  October, 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Urban Instutite: Strategies for Reducing Criminal and Juvenile Justice Involvement, Jesse Jannetta and Cameron Okeke, November 2017
https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/94516/strategies-for-reducing-criminal-and-juvenile-justice-involvement.pdf.pdf

KPMG Impact Assessment Report,  November 2018, 
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

ABS LGA Census results 2016 
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Urban Instutite: Strategies for Reducing Criminal and Juvenile Justice Involvement, Jesse Jannetta and Cameron Okeke, November 2017
https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/94516/strategies-for-reducing-criminal-and-juvenile-justice-involvement.pdf.pdf
The Guardian news article  October, 2018


This insight illustrates the relationship between the funding of policing and community development initiatives, to reduce crime rates in Bourke, NSW. The insight categorises community members into four groups:     'At risk community members' are individuals who have been identified as likely to com
This insight illustrates the relationship between the funding of policing and community development initiatives, to reduce crime rates in Bourke, NSW.
The insight categorises community members into four groups:

'At risk community members' are individuals who have been identified as likely to commit crime.

'Charged' community members are individuals who have committed a crime, have been caught and charged.

'Community development program members' are individuals who have been identified as at risk, but have also been selected to take part in a community development progam.

'Community members' are individuals who are not classified as at risk. 

This insight shows the process of how individuals transfer between categories, with finance as the independent variable. Finance can be altered from a minimum of $250,000 to a maximum of $1,000,000. The finance variable can be altered using the total finance slider located on the right hand side.

Assumptions
Here is a list of assumptions made about this scenario. Assumptions are also found in the story of this insight.

*Bourke comprises of 3000 individuals. 2750 are classified as at risk and 250 as community members at time 0

*The average jail sentence is two years

*The government pays $1,000 per year for each individual who is charged and jailed

*The average cost of a community development program is $4,000 per year, per individual

*The average individual will relapse and commit a crime or be rehabilitated within three years
  MKT563 - Assessment 4    Brittany Lawrence, 11660796      Model ​  Explanation:  This
model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke,
in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other
variables interact with each other. The model si
MKT563 - Assessment 4
Brittany Lawrence, 11660796

Model ​Explanation:

This model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke, in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other variables interact with each other. The model simulates the positives and negatives involved with being either socially engaged or socially disengaged. For example, community involvement and rehabilitation for positive factors to drug and alcohol abuse and unemployment for negative factors.

 

Variances:

There are 3 key variables identified and outlined in the model. They are also the 3 sliders at the bottom.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·        <!--[endif]-->Community Engagement Expenditure – this shows the impact of having community investment and programs in order to generate positive behavioural changes.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·        <!--[endif]-->Police Expenditure – this shows the impact of police arresting the disengaged youth and getting involved to prevent further crime. This potentially results in rehabilitation.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·        <!--[endif]-->Unemployment, Drugs & Alcohol Abuse – this is the strongest negative variance and shows the impact of how a high rate of unemployment, domestic violence and drugs and alcohol abuse can have on youth alienation.


By reducing the negative variables like unemployment and abuse, it decreases the crimes committed and hopefully police expenditure and increases the percentage of socially engaged youth. Additionally, by increasing the community expenditure, it may reduce the percentage of alienated disengaged youths, increasing the positive behavioural changes.

 

Assumptions:

From the information and sites provided, Bourke’s population is 3,000 and about 1,000 (1/3) identify as Aboriginal. According to ABC’s report “just about all [youth] are aboriginal”. Thus, this model has set the youth population as 1,000 people. Youth has been defined as 10-24 years.

The model resembles the game snakes and ladders, one slip up and Bourke’s disengaged youth can find themselves back at the beginning where they are either at risk or back to committing crime. For instance, if there is no behavioural change once they make it to rehabilitation, whether convicted of their crime or not, they will

As can be seen from the model, it is a slippery slope once Bourke’s youth are disengaged and start to feel alienated, however it is possible to get back on track, whether though police expenditure and involvement, community investment and programs to assist with rehabilitation. Additionally, there is a risk that if an arrested youth is not convicted of the crime, there can be an increase of recidivism, however with the variables in place.

From the KMPG campaign results so far, the variables in place seem to be working and reducing the number of youth in juvenile detention, increase of drivers licences, increase of employment and re-entering into the community.

  Introduction     This model simulates the effects of (community
engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol,
drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.     These variables can be manipulated for
policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing exp
Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW. 

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.


Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.


Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle


Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend


Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail. 


Outcomes


  Introduction  This model illustrates the simulation of a range of variables which have an effect within the country town of Bourke. Bourke is known for its high crime right from youths to adults. Through adjustments made by the user, this model will show the result of such variations.     Bourke h
Introduction
This model illustrates the simulation of a range of variables which have an effect within the country town of Bourke. Bourke is known for its high crime right from youths to adults. Through adjustments made by the user, this model will show the result of such variations. 

Bourke has a youth population under the age of 24 to be roughly 1000 people. For the sake of this experiment numbers have been slightly skewed to better reinforce various simulations. However, the information has been been skewed to the fact that there are going to be unrealistic results. 

The variable which have sliders allowed are, Police Intervention, Drugs and Alcohol, Community Works, Activity Investment. While developing this model, through examination, it was found that these are the numbers that fluctuate the most in most scenarios, so why not keep it consists. Police presence is something that will always either increase or decrease depending on certain events which are scheduled to be on. The fluctuation of drugs and alcohol speaks for itself, as there is no way of knowing how much of either substance is readily available. 

Community Workers, is set at 70, with the option of sliding it in which ever direction the user desires. Similarly, to police intervention, depending on events the level can significantly fluctuate. Activity Investment has a relationship with Community workers and Police Intervention. Increased volume in people results in increased investment.

Interesting Slides
After playing around here are some interesting variations you can make.
--> Police Intervention: Max, Drugs and Alcohol: min, Community workers: Max, Activity Investment: Max. The worm here shows a perfect situation of almost complete harmony within the community. I believe an increase in Police presence, Community works and activity investment will ultimately deter crime and antisocial behaviour in Bourke.
 --> Do the opposite maxs and mins from the above test. With the increase in Drugs and Alcohol and minimisation of the other variables, we can see how volatile it makes the community. The worms for all stocks are aggressively  up and down. 
--> i have gone to the liberty of creating a display for you(the Viewer) at crimes committed while drug use has been present, however the person has gone straight to rehab and not to Jail.

Assumptions
1.The population of Bourke is 5000
2.The process of crime to Detention/Rehab, is the same for Youths and Adults.
3. In the Youth and Adult Detention Stock, the youths are separated from adults
4. Adults and youths can go straight to Rehab and not go to Jail.

Slide away and enjoy.
-Ned Robinson
 Crime Rate in Bourke  Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of t
Crime Rate in Bourke
Bourke is a town in North West of NSW and there are having 3000 people in there, the people in there are usually having violent. In this graph, it will show how many people will commit a crime and be detention by police. But not all of the people will commit a crime, some of them will become a member and join the sports group. According to the crime rate from ABS of NSW in 2015-2016, the crime rate is 30%. However, during the poor environment and lack of education, the youth crime rate will be increased in Bourke and the crime rate was setting in 50% in this model.

More Details about the Graph

In this graph, there are six variables in it, however, crime rate, conviction rate and release rate is already fixed in a percentage number, because those number is already confirmed from ABS. Thus, user can adjust the range of variables such as police, membership rate and youth reestablished new life.

According to the statistics recorded of ABS in 2016, the people in Bourke is around 3000. Hence, the people in this model was setting in 3000. During there are high crime in Bourke, the conviction rate was setting at 60% in this model. Assume the number of police was maximum in 50 in Bourke. The release rate in Bourke is estimated 50% in this model and the delay is 7 months for processing before released the prisoners.

However, not all of the youth in Bourke are committing the crime, those youth can join the sports group in the community and the membership rate can be changed the range from 0.1-1. If people in Bourke take part in the sports group, it will be a good thing for them. Government is also funding to the communities in Bourke.

The users can change the range of the police from 1-50, the more police in there, the less crime happen. The higher membership rate means the more people join in the sports group. User can change the range of youth reestablished from 1-50. The number of youth reestablish new life means that they may join the sports team or commit the crime again after they released from detention.The less police the graph will show there are less people in detention because there are not enough police handling the crime.
 
  Description of the Model:    This model represents the youth community of the town of Bourke, where boredom and lack of motivation is a key issue in the community that has lead to an increase in crime.      The state government has decided to spend money in the town, and the model represents the e
Description of the Model: 
This model represents the youth community of the town of Bourke, where boredom and lack of motivation is a key issue in the community that has lead to an increase in crime. 

The state government has decided to spend money in the town, and the model represents the effects of the level of funding as well as the effects of how the funding is used. 

The model can be useful for the state government to decide how much they should spend, and whether it should be spent on policing or sporting clubs and trade schools, while also accounting for the effectiveness of the program and deciding how strict the juvenile detention center should be. 

The Model in Detail: 

Good Children:
The model assumes that all the children (Based on an estimated 1000 children) are good at the beginning. They very gradually become bored regardless of the level of social sports clubs, as not all children may be interesting in sports. 

The funding towards sports clubs and the effectiveness of the programs determine the rate of boredom among the good children.

Bored Mischievous Children:
As children get bored, they will cause mischief and varying degrees of crime. 

The level of funding for sports and the effectiveness of the program will affect the level of social engagement that will pull children away from causing mischief, and become good children again.

At the same time the level of funding for policing will affect how many of the trouble making youths get caught and placed in juvenile detention. 

Juvenile Detention: 
Once the children are in Juvenile detention, they must serve their time to be released. 

The release rate reflects how well behaving inmates are released, and the strictness of the sentences applied to youths.

Once they are released, they are still considered bored and causing mischief until they reengaged with the community through social activities funded by the state government such as playing sports.

Adjustments to the Model:

Government Funding:
The state government has decided to spend in Bourke to reduce the level of crime thought to be caused by boredom in teens. 
The slider can be adjusted from 0.1 to 100 to reflect the level of funding that the town should receive, where 100 is the maximum and 0.1 is very little funding. 

Funding Ratio:
The funding Ratio can slide from 0.1 to 0.9 (left to right). When the slider is at 0.9, 90% the funding goes to policing which is at the right of the diagram and 10% goes to sports clubs. 

At 0.1, 90% of the funding goes to Sports clubs which is at the left of the diagram, and only 10% will go to more policing.

Release Rate:
As part of solving the criminal mindset of youths in Bourke, the state government may decide to also be more lenient towards good behaving youths in detention centers by letting them out earlier to reduce the negative influence of other detainees, or simply shortening the time spent in general. 

A higher release rate allows more youths to be released meaning a more lenient approach can be modelled. 

Effectiveness of Program:
The state government may choose to run various programs with various levels of effectiveness before resorting to diverting spending on policing. 

The state government can model the consequences of ineffective programs as well as the benefits of a well run program.

An effectiveness of 1 is maximum effectiveness, while an effectiveness of 0 will result in no effect as result of spending.

Initial Values:
Good Children: 1000
Bored Mischievous Children: 0
Juvenile Detention: 0

Government funding: 100
Funding Ratio: 0.75
Release Rate: 0.1
Effectiveness of Program: 1
  Introduction     This model simulates the effects of (community
engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol,
drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.     These variables can be manipulated for
policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing exp
Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW. 

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.


Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.


Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle


Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend


Results


 Background   This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community.  The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying
Background

This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community.  The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying to reduce the crime rate of the youth due to boredom and their aim is to see the benefits of having a community club. Through the model you are able to see the benefit of an increase of community investment or police or both.

Description of Model

- The model begins of a population of 1000 youth in Bourke.

- 60% of the youth are criminals.

- The convicted youth depends on the conviction rate which is reflective of the police expenditure.

- The conviction rate is at 50% though with police involvement it is increased by 10%.

- 60% of convicted criminals are released without rehabilitation.

- The remainder of convicted criminals that are rehabilitated depends on the amount of community investment.

- 40% of the youth that attend the community club are 60% less likely to end up in rehabilitation.

Adjustable Variables

Community Investment:
- From 0-100
- Effective for community club use and decrease in crime rate

Police:
-From 10-70
-There will always be the use of police in a city, though the police cannot have an uneven ratio to population.

Conviction Rate:
-From 10-70
-There will always be conviction though through the use of police try to be the minimal as possible.

Assumptions

-The population of youth is 1000.

-Only youth are commiting crime.

-There is no increase of individual risk.

-The use of community club will involve youth and decrease their crime rates.



  Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options   Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being
adults, and 2000 being youth. 

 This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and
the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program
chooses to increase punishmen

Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options

Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being adults, and 2000 being youth.

This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program chooses to increase punishment for crime, or invest in prevention programs to help the community better themselves and avoid trouble. The overall aim is to reduce imprisonment.

Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when there is an increase in punishment and more policing. Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when preventative measures have been put in place. All variables are given an estimated rate, though the rate is not fixed and viewers are able to adjust the rates using the appropriate slider bars, as limited information has been provided at this given time in relation to the specified rates.

The slider bars for the youth have been given a range of -2000 to 2000 as the population of youth is 2000 and those are the limits. Same applies to the slider bars specified for the adults, though here the limit is from -1000 to 1000.

By setting parameter settings to a value lower than 0, you will start to see a decline in arrests. By setting the parameter over 0 you will see an increase. 

Stocks have been colour coded to represent their lines shown in the simulated graph. 

    

 

 

 

 

 

 BACKGROUND 

 The
remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty
crime among the town’s youth. 

 Part
of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities
the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant tha

BACKGROUND

The remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty crime among the town’s youth.

Part of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.

This complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can change this cycle.

While there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation

 

MODEL EXPLAINED

Simulation of this model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.

Total Youth Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.

This model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).

 

At Time Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1. 

 

STOCKS

- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.

i.e. not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs

- Community Engagement Programs = Number of Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.

Community Engagement Programs consist of multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events

- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing Petty Crimes.

- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in Juvenile Detention.

- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.

- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.

 

ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of Money being Invested into Community Development

i.e. 15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund

- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in Bourke

i.e. 15 = 15 Active Police Officers

- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)

i.e. 0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear to be corrupt)

 

 

UN-ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to commit crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5% percent.

Assumptions:

0.5% of the  juvenile population of Bourke already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for any reliable intervention.

- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.

Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.

Assumptions:

5% of the juvenile population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to commit petty crimes.

 

DYNAMIC VARIABLES

- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel Alienated/have no sense of community.

Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.

Assumptions:

Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen  decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.

Before taking into account those people that are in the Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be Alienated.

i.e. when Upstanding Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation = 90%

 

 

FLOWS

- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)

For every $1000 invested into Community Development Resource $, the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.

The rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50 children coming to Community Engagement Programs we have a percentage increase in Community Involvement rate.

- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom & Recklessness variable.

- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Youth Alienation and Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.

Temptation flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home

- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.

- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.

Increased Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.

- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile Detention population by 4 months.

Assumption: The average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre Sentence. 

- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.

Assumption: There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary of Police.

- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the Community Development Resource $ variable.

Community Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.

For every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.

- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and Further Negative Influence Rate.

Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.

 Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further Negative Influences Flow of 25%.

- Inspired (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the Positive Influences at Home variable.

- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.

Assumption: There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious Upstanding Members of Bourke society.

- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)

Flow Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%

Assumption: Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation, boredom and recklessness.

 

EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES

Base Settings:

Police Officers = 10

Community Development Resource $ = 5,000

Police Initiative Rate = 1

 

⮝ Increasing Community Development Resource $

- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn decreases Youth Alienation. Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.

- Increases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs.

- Increases Upstanding Citizen due to the increase in Community Engagement Programs.

⮟ Decreasing Community Development Resource $

- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn increases Youth Alienation. Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.

- Decreases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs .

- Decreases Upstanding Citizen due to the decrease in Community Engagement Programs.

 

 

⮝ Increasing Police Officers

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Officers

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

 

 

⮝ Increasing Police Initiative

 - Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Initiative

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

 

 

INTERESTING POINTS

  • Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice how Youth just constantly circulate between Home, Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged with the amount of children in Community Engagement and Upstanding Citizens stocks seem Negligible

  • Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 30,000 ,  Police Officers to 1 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding Citizens

  • Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.

Notice that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any improvement in the situation.   

 Background Information  Bourke is a town of  3000  people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from
Sydney.        The state government is implementing a new measure to prevent further crime committed by installing community programs such as sporting clubs, and classes to develop relat
Background Information
Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney.

The state government is implementing a new measure to prevent further crime committed by installing community programs such as sporting clubs, and classes to develop relationships among police and the community.

Many youth were going from home to juvenile detention and back, and many adults were on a similar roundabout between the community and jail.

Community development programs hopefully will reduce the levels of domestic violence among adults, and petty crime among the town’s youth.

Model Explanation
Firstly, you notice Adult and Youth population is separated and assumed that 50% of adults will commit crime whereas 20% in youth. A certain percentage is given for the number that is guilty and not guilty. Guilty, will receive certain punishment according to their age category and after their sentence is served, they go back to town.

Policing Expenditures shows how many officers are needed to reduce the amount of crime. Officers are called when a crime/mischief is committed, whether they're caught or not and found guilty or not.

Stocks
Adult Population: Adults in Bourke

Youth Population: Teenagers in Bourke

Crime: Domestic Violence/Homicide

Mischief: Petty Crimes

Jail: If Guilty, adults are sent to jail

Juvenile Detention: If guilty, youth are sent to detention

Community Programs: Sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships among police and “at risk” households, and teaching trade-skills

Assumptions
Adult Population: 2100

Youth Population: 900

Adult Crimes: 50%

Youth Mischief: 20%

Goal
The aim of this model is to illustrate the affects of implementing change i.e. policing/government aid within a community

Trends
The increase of Government Aid and Policing Expenditures decreases the crime performed in the community.

We can see a positive outcome from this and can take into account the affects of proper execution by the state government


  Introduction     This model simulates the effects of (community
engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol,
drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.     These variables can be manipulated for
policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing exp
Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW. 

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.


Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.


Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle


Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend


Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail. 


Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.


Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.


This is a model designed to ​demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.   Variables:   There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.  The stocks are ar
This is a model designed to ​demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.
 Shriya Ghai, 44110081       Crime Rate in Bourke  This model seeks to examine how the Youth and Adult of Bourke affects the police expenditures and community expenditures. The model is depicting about two different categories, i.e Youth and Adult but are connected by two variables i.e. Expenditure
Shriya Ghai, 44110081

Crime Rate in Bourke
This model seeks to examine how the Youth and Adult of Bourke affects the police expenditures and community expenditures. The model is depicting about two different categories, i.e Youth and Adult but are connected by two variables i.e. Expenditure on Community Activities and Police.

Bourke : 3000
(I have assume that there are a high number of Adult as compared to Youth in Bourke)
Adult :2000
Youth:1000
Expenditure on Community Activities: 66
Police: 81

Youth Crime Rate : 0.6
Adult Crime Rate: 0.4
(Assuming that crime committed by Youth is more than crime committed by Adult)

About The Graph:
Youth commits crime and gets convicted but not everyone. The convicted ones are sent to detention where they spend their detention period and are released after that. There are some who improve after this period but there are also some people who recommits crime. Youth are registers/gets involved in various Community activities. 

If people in Bourke take part in community activities, if will be good for them. Government is investing in community activities and police so that the crime rate decreased and more and more people get involved in different activities.

Also, there are two sliders; Police and Expenditure on Community Activities. We observe that if we increase the number of police, there is a significant decrease in crime rate. Feel free to use the sliders and observe how the crime rate and community engagement/activities changes.
This model mainly describes the situation of juvenile crime in Bourke.  Lack of education among adolescents leads to an increase in juvenile delinquency and eventually becomes a criminal, and these young people are improved through justice reinvestment projects.   the level of education and punishme
This model mainly describes the situation of juvenile crime in Bourke. 
Lack of education among adolescents leads to an increase in juvenile delinquency and eventually becomes a criminal, and these young people are improved through justice reinvestment projects.
the level of education and punishment can affect the number of criminals
   Aim   The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over
Aim
The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions
This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables
Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.
Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.
Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.
Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions
Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.
The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.
A combination of these would be ideal.

  Assessment 4, MKT563 201930   

 Danielle Skerrett  
Student ID: 11664109 
Charles Sturt University 

       About this Model:  
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect
the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in
previous

Assessment 4, MKT563 201930 

Danielle Skerrett 
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University


About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial processes.

Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:

Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*:  669 or 21% 

*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.

 

Results of reinvestment program:

38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories

31% increase in year 12 student retention rates

27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles

 

Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33% 

References:

Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke 


Australian Bureau of Statistics.  (2016).  Census Data for Bourke LGA.  Retrieved from

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522


KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/ 


Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story. Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/ 


Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A., (2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114 


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 ​Background:  The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law e
​Background:
The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).
 

Underlying Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)

Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)

Budget: $4,000,000

Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION

The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.


Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)
That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.

The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investment
Parameters: 
  1. Community Investment
  2. Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.

About this Model:

  • The Units of measure has been set to months
  • Simulation Length is set to 48 months
  • It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
  • The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
  • Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
  • Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
  • Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
  • During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.
Interesting Simulations

  • Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
  • When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
  • Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
  • Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education
Final Conclusions:

It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.
By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.

Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated. 

Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people.  In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays.  Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come toge
Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people.  In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays.  Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.

This  model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program.  This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.

Stocks
Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling
Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour 
Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime
Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.

Data of Note
- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program
- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.

Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths".  This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).

- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught
- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime

Conclusion

While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.
  Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW &amp; Implications on Local Youth       Background      A small country town in NSW Australia, Bourke records very high youth crime rates and jail population, when compared to the remainder of the country. To tackle the specific causes for such high rates
Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW & Implications on Local Youth

Background

A small country town in NSW Australia, Bourke records very high youth crime rates and jail population, when compared to the remainder of the country. To tackle the specific causes for such high rates, a Justice Reinvestment Program has been designed, involving all actors of the local community (Police, Education, Local Elders, Community Members) and focusing on prevention rather than repression.

Model Explanation

This simple model aims at depicting patterns in crime and redemption behaviour; and how local actions, investments and resources can impact Bourke youth, positively or negatively. Multiple variables can be manipulated to assess results and outcomes.

Stocks
  • Youth Population – total youth population in the town of Bourke
  • Disengaged Youth – youth showing a Negative Behaviour. They have either left school, are affected by drug and/or alcohol consumption, and/or domestic violence. They need to be taken care of, otherwise they might engage in offences
  • Problem Youth – youth having committed an offence
  • Court Appearance – Problem Youth having been arrested, thanks to local police. Stock is affected by Police Budget variable
  • Jailed – youth having been convicted and sent to prison
  • Youth in Community Programs – youth population either out of prison and repenting; or Problem Youth enrolling in Community Activity
  • Engaged Youth – youth showing a Positive Behaviour. The final objective of this Justice Reinvestment program

Variables
  • School Attendance – a critical factor to re-engage Disengaged Youth
  • Crime Rate – percentage of Disengaged Youth committing offences
  • Police Budget – affects number of Problem Youth being brought to justice. Can be manipulated between 0 (absolutely no police in Bourke) to 100 (local police reinforcement and 24/7 surveillance), both being theoretical options
  • Reoffending Rate – percentage of Youth committing offences again, after their release from Jail
  • Community Programs Funding – amount spent on various community programs, such as training and apprenticeship; counselling; preventive police home visits; learner driver classes; sports; and cultural connections program. Funding impacts 3 types of Youth: 
  1. Disengaged Youth joining back community
  2. Problem Youth entering Community Programs
  3. Youth repenting after being released from Jail, and entering Community Programs 

Assumptions
  • Bourke Youth Population = 1.000
Below coefficients and initial values were arbitrarily chosen but can be modified using sliders, to estimate influence and impact:
  • Crime rate in Disengaged Youth = 70%
  • Reoffending Rate = 30%
  • Police Budget = 40
  • Community Programs Funding = 60

Conclusions

There is no silver bullet solution to the youth crime problem in Bourke NSW. However, with the suggested combination of Police Budget and Community Program Funding, positive results appear from Year 3 onwards: even with the occasional spike of reoffenders and subsequent Problem Youth, overall Engaged Youth population increases, reaching 70% of total Youth Population on Year 4 and increasing.

Community Programs Funding has the biggest impact towards the program objective, as it helps creating positive reinforcement and life opportunities for Bourke youth at different disengagement stages.
 Brief Description of this Model  This model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of
Brief Description of this Model
This model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of youth crime rates and domestic violence amongst adults which has accumulated cost of millions of dollars. A new approach has been propose to relocate of spending away from policing and justice system into community engagement which this model tries to demonstrate. Investment in communities represents investing in community worker.

Assumptions 
  • Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community. 
  • Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible. 

Initial Values - Members of Bourke Community
Home: 1000
Alienation: 120
Crime: 80
Jail: 200
Community: 500
Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100
Police 

How this model works
The essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial. 

A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community. 

Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.

After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities. 

Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local  sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids.
 
Interesting Settings. 
As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty. 
Police : 99
Community Worker: 90

    MKT563, Assessment 4    Uranchimeg Byambajav    Student No: 11728701         About the Model:   The aim of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults

MKT563, Assessment 4

Uranchimeg Byambajav

Student No: 11728701

 

About the Model:

The aim of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

 

Assumptions:

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

 

Variables:

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The number of resources put into policing determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

 

Patterns:

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

 

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

 

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

 

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

 

References:

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Allam, L. (2018, October 9). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

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Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114