Bourke | Insight Maker

EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE

BACKGROUND
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime.

The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other stocks.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL

1. Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population.

2. Simulation value for community investment is 40%.

3. Simulation value for police officers is 450.

4. The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.

5. The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’ such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.

6. The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.

7. It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.

STOCKS

1. Youth population – percentage of youth residing in Bourke.

2. Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who have committed an offence.

3. Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a crime for youth.

4. Community engagement program – a government expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.

VARIABLES

1. Community investment – effectiveness of the community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.

2. Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%). This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the Law of Diminishing Returns).

HOW TO GET INTERESTING RESULTS

1. At 50% community investment, disengagement is higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%) compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100% community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.

2. At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together, on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.

Olivia Miu (44909209)

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44909209

Olivia Miu

Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police.

SID: 43626971.

Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.

Model of Bourke's crime problem

Yu Mao

MKT563, Assessment 4

Uranchimeg Byambajav

Student No: 11728701

About the Model:

The aim of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions:

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables:

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The number of resources put into policing determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns:

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

References:

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Allam, L. (2018, October 9). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG Impact Assessment. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Uranchimeg Byambajav 11728701 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Uranchimeg Byambajav

Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW

This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.

Stocks:

General Population of Bourke

This is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.

Criminals

These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.

Incarcerated Criminals

When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.

Community Involvement Program Participants

These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.

Variables:

Size of Police Force

The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Funding for Community Programs

This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Description and Assumptions:

This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.

Based on statistics gathered from this document:

http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf

Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.

This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.

The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.

Notable Data Points

As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.

An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.

43692273 - Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW

Benjamin Muir

Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.

Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.

Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle

Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend

Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.

Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.

THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.

Duncan Hill

7

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Srinivas Nalla

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Assignment 3 44906064

Arvindhan Gopal Punitha

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000) is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016 LGA table: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_crime_stats/bocsar_lgaexceltables.aspx

This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive inputs.

Assumptions in this model are:

1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years

2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population (age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile offending rates

3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates

4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)

5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.

Conclusion:

It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system, will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Ross Williams

Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people. In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays. Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.

This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.

Stocks

Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling

Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour

Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime

Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.

Data of Note

- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program

- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.

Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).

- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught

- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime

Conclusion

While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.

Relationship between Youth Alienation, Police and Community Development in Bourke

Lauren Phillips

Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police.

SID: 43626971.

Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.

Clone of Model of Bourke's crime problem

Ray Madachy

AKHIL ARYA - 44680198

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bourke is town with a population of 5000 people, that has limited offered to keep its community occupied. This has led to a lot of residents to result to mischief and violence, however, the town has had enough and decided that a change is required. Investment in both more policing and community activities is said to provide a drastic improvement in the quality of living in the suburb.

The complex system designed here details the improvements that can be made and can assist in the decision making of whether more money should be invested into policing or community activities.

Assumptions:

- The population of Bourke remains 5000 for the entirety of this model (for simplicity). NO births or deaths. NO moving in or out.

- There will be a delay rate for personal convicted after they leave jail and rehab.

- 30% of offenders are released directly back to the community, while the remaining 70% will be transferred to rehab for rehabilitation.

- All jail sentences are constant at 6 months (for simplicity)

Variables

- Police: slider allows us to adjust the amount of policing involved in the town so we can observe the effect of changing police numbers corresponding to amount of crime committed. Range: 5 – 100.

- Drugs and Alcohol: contribute to increase violence and crime being committed, therefore, maybe regulating the number of drugs and amount of alcohol that both minors and adults consume by police officers. Then hopefully crime can be reduced and even prevented. Range: 0 -20.

- Community investment: this slider allows us to alter the amount of community investment that Bourke will invest in. Range: 0 – 1.

- Sporting Investment: Sporting showed great results and improvements to the quality of living in Bourke. Keeping youths and adults occupied in rugby teams is a great time pass and great way to let off some steam for a lot of people. The slider allows us to observe the effect of these investments on the quality of living in Bourke. Range: 0 – 1.

Interesting Results:

Police Slider: 10

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the sliders set at these numbers, we can observe a constant cycle between residents altering from jail and home, as the crime commit remains relatively constant (very slow descent).

Police Slider: 100

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the police maxed out, the crime rate still remains relatively constant, will slight decrease but it being so small I can be considered insignificant. From this we can propose that without alternate activities for the residents of Bourke to get involved in, reforming and making a change to the suburb will be a very difficult. Investment into just policing can also be seen as not the best investment of money.

Bourke Assignment 3 - MGMT220

Akhil Arya

Shriya Ghai, 44110081

Crime Rate in Bourke

This model seeks to examine how the Youth and Adult of Bourke affects the police expenditures and community expenditures. The model is depicting about two different categories, i.e Youth and Adult but are connected by two variables i.e. Expenditure on Community Activities and Police.

Bourke : 3000

(I have assume that there are a high number of Adult as compared to Youth in Bourke)

Adult :2000

Youth:1000

Expenditure on Community Activities: 66

Police: 81

Youth Crime Rate : 0.6

Adult Crime Rate: 0.4

(Assuming that crime committed by Youth is more than crime committed by Adult)

About The Graph:

Youth commits crime and gets convicted but not everyone. The convicted ones are sent to detention where they spend their detention period and are released after that. There are some who improve after this period but there are also some people who recommits crime. Youth are registers/gets involved in various Community activities.

If people in Bourke take part in community activities, if will be good for them. Government is investing in community activities and police so that the crime rate decreased and more and more people get involved in different activities.

Also, there are two sliders; Police and Expenditure on Community Activities. We observe that if we increase the number of police, there is a significant decrease in crime rate. Feel free to use the sliders and observe how the crime rate and community engagement/activities changes.

Assignment 3

Shriya Ghai

Model Explanation

This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime.

The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.

Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).

Assumptions

Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.

Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.

Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.

Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.

It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.

Interesting Results

Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework Model for Bourke

Josh Stevens

MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099)

Introduction

Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people.

Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.

In 2013, the township of Bourke implemented the first pilot program for justice reinvestment, with Aboriginal leadership. The program is known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

Youth development

Reform to youth development and an increase in participation-based programs allowed for an increase in youth involvement within the community. Programs such as the School Holiday program or the 8 to 18-year-old working group helped to contribute towards a positive shift in youth inclusion and reduce alienation such as high school absenteeism, high school non graduate rate and an increase in TAFE/VET enrolments (and subsequent completions).

Police and Legal System

Through a series of initiatives aimed at Adult Empowerment, a decrease in bail breaches saw a 21% reduction YOY, as well as a 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents. The initiatives included the Role of Men working group, Early Childhood and Parenting work group and Aboriginal employment prosperity strategy. There was a 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a top criminal offence YOY from 2016 to 2017.

Community development

As of 2020, the ABC reported that North-Western NSW children are still at a disadvantage with some of the state’s highest percentages for lack of internet access, with Bourke reporting 30.1% of children still do not have internet access at home.

One of the community (and youth) initiatives implemented was the Birrang Learner Driver Program. The program saw an 83% increase in successful test completions YOY with 2016.

Initial parameters

- Internet access = 0.625

- Licence success rate = 0.83

- High school students = 160

- High school attendance rate = 0.74

- TAFE completion rate = 0.84

- Reoffence rate = 0.695

- Crime = 239 (arrests by charged rate)

- Charged = 0.38

- Breach rate = 0.27

- Youths = 302

- Arrests = 91

- Aboriginal background = 0.60

Variables (sliders)

Internet access

- Licence success rate

- High school students

- High school attendance rate

- TAFE completion rate

- Reoffence rate

- Crime

- Charged

- Breach rate

Assumptions

- Bourke has 31.5% aboriginal population.

- TAFE enrolments are governed by successful high school graduates.

- 3.3% of juveniles under 18 attend technical and further education

- There are 160 high school students – 60% have an Aboriginal background

- The attendance rate for high school students is 74%

- It would stand to reason that the absentee rate is 100 – 74 = initial value is 26%

- The simulation has been set to run for 5 years

- There are 302 youths aged between 10 and 19 years old

- 15-19 year olds make up for 4.6% of the population in Bourke (121).

- Licences achieved had an 83% increase YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 27% reduction in juvenile bail breaches YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a “top 5 offence” (91 arrests)

References

Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Data by region. Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=lga&rgn=11150

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG. (2018, November). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

McCutcheon, J. (2020, August 27). Internet at home not available to 26pc of children living in remote New South Wales. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-28/internet-access-for-students-in-the-bush-unequal-to-city-kids/12601120

MKT563 - Assignment 4

Jodi Thornton

Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:

Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:

Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation:

Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!

- Sam

Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke

Andy West

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Clone of Clone of Assignment 3 44906064

fredrick cm

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

Assignment 3: Complex Systems

Jason Nguyen 43711448

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke.

By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.

About the model

The model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented.

However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.

The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.

The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.

What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.

For example: Set the sliders to these values:

Policing: 25
TAFE Funding: 26

Look at the trade skills vs. juvenile detention simulation. We can see crime rates rise when trade skills aren't largely funded. Then, increase TAFE Funding to 75. Notice that juvenile detention is very low and stays consistently low.

Important notes

The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
These periods are both represented by delays.
No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.

Assignment3_JasonNguyen_Bourke

Jason Nguyen

This is a model designed to demonstrate the effects of policing and community development/engagement programs on the youth of Bourke, by simulation the state of the community at different levels of both policing and the programs.

Variables:

There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.

The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.

The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.

Suggestion:

The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.

To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
     . 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.

     . 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.

     . 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.

Clone of Assignment 3 44906064

fredrick cm

This model simulated possible crime rates of youths in Bourke.

Crime, Policing and Community Programs involving Youths in Bourke

Lauren Attwood

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

sub cribed

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Sravya Sri Egalapati

Bourke Models