Bourke Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.
These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.
Assessment 4, MKT563 201930
Danielle Skerrett
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University
About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect
the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in
previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an
effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program
is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is
also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back
into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial
processes.
Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:
Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*: 669 or 21%
*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.
Results of reinvestment program:
38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories
31% increase in year 12 student retention rates
27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles
Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33%
References:
Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates
plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522
KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka
Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/
Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story.
Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A.,
(2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving
young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114
MKT563, Assessment 4
Uranchimeg Byambajav
Student No: 11728701
About the Model:
The aim of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.
Assumptions:
This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.
Variables:
Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The number of resources put into policing determines whether individuals will commit crimes.
Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.
Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.
Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted
Patterns:
When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.
Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.
Suggestions
Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)
The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.
The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.
A combination of these would be ideal.
References:
Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html
Allam, L. (2018, October 9). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument
KPMG Impact Assessment. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114