Bourke Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.

Related tagsCrimeYouth

Bourke Youth Crime Model This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia. Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth]
Bourke Macquarie University Crime
Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:
Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:
Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation: 
Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:
Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:
Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:
Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:
Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!
- Sam
Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke
Andy West
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW. The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms
Crime Youth Social Services Bourke Recidivism Rehabilitation
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
Sravya Sri Egalapati
This model is intended to make the relation between people in Bourke, crime and the rate of prison committed, these factors are continually influenced by the police, community and education. I simulated the number of criminals, the prison and the addiction.
Bourke Youth Crime
This model is intended to make the relation between people in Bourke, crime and the rate of prison committed, these factors are continually influenced by the police, community and education. I simulated the number of criminals, the prison and the addiction.

Bourke's model
Tsolmon Baatartsogt
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW. The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms
Recidivism Rehabilitation Social Services Youth Crime Bourke
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
Daniel Chalk
An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke. The model This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke. As
Bourke Youth Crime
An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke.

The model

This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.

Assumptions:

75% of youth are alienated

75% of alienated youth participate in crime

60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours

85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.

90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes


Variables:

Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.

Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation. 

Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.

Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.

Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.

Conclusion:

The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education  participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.

When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.




Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke
Kathryn Greensill
Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.  To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project w
Crime Bourke Justice Youth
Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales. 

To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons. 

This model has been developed to demonstrate how  youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.           
      
Assumption

The following assumptions have been made:

25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour. 

75% have positive engagement in society

Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years

Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending

Conclusion

It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment. 

Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences. 

There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.

Bibliography

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

 



Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke
Michaela Dwyer
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW. The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms
Recidivism Rehabilitation Social Services Youth Crime Bourke
This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

  • Youth
  • Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  • Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  • Probation – release from punishment
  • Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate


INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

<!--EndFragment-->
Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
Harikrishna Elaprolu
Youth Crime in Bourke Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.  This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a
Crime Bourke Youths
Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in. 

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500). 

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time. 

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police). 

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted. 

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

Clone of Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
Bryce Hercok
Bourke Youth Crime Model This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia. Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth]
Crime Macquarie University Bourke
Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:
Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:
Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation: 
Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:
Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:
Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:
Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:
Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!
- Sam
Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke
JAMES SAVAGE
MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099) Introduction Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people. Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.
Youth Reform Community Development Bourke

MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099)

Introduction

Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people.

Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.

In 2013, the township of Bourke implemented the first pilot program for justice reinvestment, with Aboriginal leadership. The program is known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

Youth development

Reform to youth development and an increase in participation-based programs allowed for an increase in youth involvement within the community. Programs such as the School Holiday program or the 8 to 18-year-old working group helped to contribute towards a positive shift in youth inclusion and reduce alienation such as high school absenteeism, high school non graduate rate and an increase in TAFE/VET enrolments (and subsequent completions).

Police and Legal System

Through a series of initiatives aimed at Adult Empowerment, a decrease in bail breaches saw a 21% reduction YOY, as well as a 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents. The initiatives included the Role of Men working group, Early Childhood and Parenting work group and Aboriginal employment prosperity strategy. There was a 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a top criminal offence YOY from 2016 to 2017.

Community development

As of 2020, the ABC reported that North-Western NSW children are still at a disadvantage with some of the state’s highest percentages for lack of internet access, with Bourke reporting 30.1% of children still do not have internet access at home.

One of the community (and youth) initiatives implemented was the Birrang Learner Driver Program. The program saw an 83% increase in successful test completions YOY with 2016.

Initial parameters

-       Internet access = 0.625

-       Licence success rate = 0.83

-       High school students = 160

-       High school attendance rate = 0.74

-       TAFE completion rate = 0.84

-       Reoffence rate = 0.695

-       Crime = 239 (arrests by charged rate)

-       Charged = 0.38

-       Breach rate = 0.27

-       Youths = 302

-       Arrests = 91

-       Aboriginal background = 0.60


Variables (sliders)

Internet access

-       Licence success rate

-       High school students

-       High school attendance rate

-       TAFE completion rate

-       Reoffence rate

-       Crime

-       Charged

-       Breach rate

Assumptions

-       Bourke has 31.5% aboriginal population.

-       TAFE enrolments are governed by successful high school graduates.

-       3.3% of juveniles under 18 attend technical and further education

-       There are 160 high school students – 60% have an Aboriginal background

-       The attendance rate for high school students is 74%

-       It would stand to reason that the absentee rate is 100 – 74 = initial value is 26%

-       The simulation has been set to run for 5 years

-       There are 302 youths aged between 10 and 19 years old

-       15-19 year olds make up for 4.6% of the population in Bourke (121).

-       Licences achieved had an 83% increase YOY from 2016 to 2017

-       23% reduction in domestic violence incidents YOY from 2016 to 2017

-       27% reduction in juvenile bail breaches YOY from 2016 to 2017

-       38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a “top 5 offence” (91 arrests)

References

Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Data by region. Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=lga&rgn=11150

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG. (2018, November). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

McCutcheon, J. (2020, August 27). Internet at home not available to 26pc of children living in remote New South Wales. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-28/internet-access-for-students-in-the-bush-unequal-to-city-kids/12601120

MKT563 - Assignment 4
Jodi Thornton
Youth community of Bourke ​ Youth Crime rate in Bourke An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care
Community Crime Youth Bourke
Youth community of Bourke

​Youth Crime rate in Bourke
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 

Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 
Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
Laksh Taneja
Youth community of Bourke ​ Youth Crime rate in Bourke An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care
Youth Bourke Community Crime
Youth community of Bourke

​Youth Crime rate in Bourke
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model. 

Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available. 

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released. 

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke. 

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders. 
Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
Zaiceva Ekaterina
ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for
MKT563 Program Reinvestment Youth Bourke Crime Justice Complex Systems
ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages. 

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
Bethanie Clarke
Youth Crime in Bourke Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.  This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a
Bourke Youths Crime
Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in. 

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500). 

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time. 

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police). 

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted. 

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
Bryce Hercok
Bourke Youth and Crime Model - Didier Deray This model illustrates the effect of police and the investment in community development programs on the youth population of Bourke. This representation depicts what happens to the youth that are and aren't convicted from crimes using assumed amounts.
Bourke
Bourke Youth and Crime Model - Didier Deray

This model illustrates the effect of police and the investment in community development programs on the youth population of Bourke. This representation depicts what happens to the youth that are and aren't convicted from crimes using assumed amounts. It also depicts the youth that transform from juvenile detention and community development programs, and those that recommit crime using assumed numbers. 

The investment in community development programs includes sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships and teaching trade-skills.

The two sliders, 'Police' and 'Investment in Community Development Programs', allow their respective impacts on the youth population in Bourke to be observed.

Assumptions
  • The youth population in Bourke is 1000
  • The maximum number of police in Bourke is 60
  • The maximum amount of investment in community development programs is $100 000
  • 1/3 of the youth that commit crime do not get convicted
  • Out of the youth that participate in the community development programs, 5/6 transform and 1/6 regress to commit crimes again
  • Out of the youth that go to juvenile detention, 70% recommit crime and only 30% transform

Suggested Settings with assumptions
  • The 'Police' variable is set at 30 because this is the assumed average amount of officers at any time of the day in Bourke
  • The 'Investment in Community Development Programs' variable is set at $10 000 because this is the assumed amount of money that is already invested into the programs

Assignment 3 Bourke - 44919182
Didier Deray
Introduction This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.  These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing exp
Bourke Policing Expenditure Positive Lifestyle Alcohol And Drugs Unemployment Community Engagement Expenditure Jail
Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW. 

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.


Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.


Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle


Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend


Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail. 


Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.


Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.


THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.
Steven D'Alessandro
This is a Complex System Model of the Town of Bourke, New South Wales, Australia. A complex model of the patterns, rates and variables of crime within Bourke. The model shows the relationship between the stocks and the vaiarbales of crime in Bourke, such as: Bourke Residents Youth Alienation
Bourke
This is a Complex System Model of the Town of Bourke, New South Wales, Australia. A complex model of the patterns, rates and variables of crime within Bourke.

The model shows the relationship between the stocks and the vaiarbales of crime in Bourke, such as:
Bourke Residents
Youth Alienation/Community Engagement
Drugs/Alcohol/Petty Crime
Juvenile Dentetion/Rehabilation

With these rates taken into account:
Access to Drugs and Alcohol
Conviction Rate
Police
Active/Follow ups

Assumptions

This Complex Systems Model is going to assume that the population of Bourke is 1000 people and is constant over the whole timeframe. This is due to the fact of an inability to create a changing population base throughout the time frame.
We will be also making the assumption that the variables stay at a constant rate thoughout the models timeframe, this includes:
Access to drugs and alcohol
Conviction Rate
Police
Active/Follow ups

We are also making the assumption that the individuals in Bourke can only be active in the varaibles and stocks provided, and these will account for the whole population.

Results
In this Complex Systems Model, results where quite obvious and as expected as it was clear situations such as:
Access to Drugs and Alcohol clearly effected the rate of Petty Crime
Active Follow Ups clearly effected the rate of Rehabilitation

Karen Laba
44901836
Clone of Assignment 3 - 44901836
Karen laba