Bourke Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Bourke”.
Bourke's model
This model
displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure,
social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.
The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population
-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.
-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.
-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
STOCKS
- Youth
- Crime – all
offences committed by those under 18
- Punishment
Facility – juvenile detention
- Probation – release from punishment
- Education
system – various programs
VARIABLES
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate
INTERESTING RESULTS
Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.
This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.
1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact
Press Simulate.
Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.
This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support Unit impact
Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit Impact
Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.
Conclusions
Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.
Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.
The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.
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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
This model
displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure,
social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.
The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population
-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.
-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.
-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
STOCKS
- Youth
- Crime – all
offences committed by those under 18
- Punishment
Facility – juvenile detention
- Probation – release from punishment
- Education
system – various programs
VARIABLES
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate
INTERESTING RESULTS
Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.
This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.
1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact
Press Simulate.
Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.
This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support Unit impact
Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit Impact
Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.
Conclusions
Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.
Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.
The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.
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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
This model
displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure,
social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.
The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population
-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.
-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.
-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
STOCKS
- Youth
- Crime – all
offences committed by those under 18
- Punishment
Facility – juvenile detention
- Probation – release from punishment
- Education
system – various programs
VARIABLES
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate
INTERESTING RESULTS
Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.
This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.
1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact
Press Simulate.
Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.
This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support Unit impact
Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit Impact
Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.
Conclusions
Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.
Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.
The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.
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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
Model Explanation:
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
Underlying Assumptions:
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
Conclusions:
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554
Introduction
These variables can be manipulated for
policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure
affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added
in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to
year.
Assumptions
Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.
Initial Values
600 alienated people
480 people committing crime
250 people arrested awaiting Trial
500 people in Jail
1000 people active in Community Groups
6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle
Constants
20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society
80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime
20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will
90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged
80% of youth and adults join potentially
will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend
Variables
Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.
The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.
Outcomes
With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.
An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.
If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
Recommendations
If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.
THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.
Youth community of Bourke
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
Background:
The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).
Underlying Assumptions:
Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)
Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)
Budget: $4,000,000
Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary®ion=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA®ionLGA=REGION®ionASGS=REGION
The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.
Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)
That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.
The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investment
Parameters:
- Community Investment
- Law Enforcement
Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.
About this Model:
- The Units of measure has been set to months
- Simulation Length is set to 48 months
- It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
- The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
- Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
- Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
- Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
- During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.
Interesting Simulations
- Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
- When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
- Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
- Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education
Final Conclusions:
It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.
By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.
Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated.
assignment3 bourke_43658083
Assignment 3: Complex Systems
Jason Nguyen 43711448
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke.
By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.
About the model
The model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented.
However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.
The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.
The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.
Variables/relationships
The variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
- TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
- Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.
What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.
Interesting parameters
As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).
The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.
For example: Set the sliders to these values:
- Policing: 25
- TAFE Funding: 26
Important notes
- The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
- After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
- These periods are both represented by delays.
- No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
- The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.
Conclusion
From the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.
Assignment3_JasonNguyen_Bourke
MKT563 - Assessment 4
Brittany Lawrence, 11660796
This model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke, in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other variables interact with each other. The model simulates the positives and negatives involved with being either socially engaged or socially disengaged. For example, community involvement and rehabilitation for positive factors to drug and alcohol abuse and unemployment for negative factors.
Variances:
There are 3 key variables identified and outlined in the model. They are also the 3 sliders at the bottom.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Community Engagement Expenditure – this shows the impact of having community investment and programs in order to generate positive behavioural changes.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Police Expenditure – this shows the impact of police arresting the disengaged youth and getting involved to prevent further crime. This potentially results in rehabilitation.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Unemployment, Drugs & Alcohol Abuse – this is the strongest negative variance and shows the impact of how a high rate of unemployment, domestic violence and drugs and alcohol abuse can have on youth alienation.
By reducing the negative variables like unemployment and abuse, it decreases the crimes committed and hopefully police expenditure and increases the percentage of socially engaged youth. Additionally, by increasing the community expenditure, it may reduce the percentage of alienated disengaged youths, increasing the positive behavioural changes.
Assumptions:
From the information and sites provided, Bourke’s population is 3,000 and about 1,000 (1/3) identify as Aboriginal. According to ABC’s report “just about all [youth] are aboriginal”. Thus, this model has set the youth population as 1,000 people. Youth has been defined as 10-24 years.
The model resembles the game snakes and ladders, one slip up and Bourke’s disengaged youth can find themselves back at the beginning where they are either at risk or back to committing crime. For instance, if there is no behavioural change once they make it to rehabilitation, whether convicted of their crime or not, they will
As can be seen from the model, it is a slippery slope once Bourke’s youth are disengaged and start to feel alienated, however it is possible to get back on track, whether though police expenditure and involvement, community investment and programs to assist with rehabilitation. Additionally, there is a risk that if an arrested youth is not convicted of the crime, there can be an increase of recidivism, however with the variables in place.
From the KMPG campaign results so far, the variables in place seem to be working and reducing the number of youth in juvenile detention, increase of drivers licences, increase of employment and re-entering into the community.
Bourke Youth Population
Youth Crime in Bourke
Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.
This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.
Assumptions
For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).
There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.
All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.
Variables
The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).
Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.
Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.
Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.
Observations
This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.
- Bryce
Clone of Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke.
The model
This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.
Assumptions:
75% of youth are alienated
75% of alienated youth participate in crime
60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours
85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.
90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes
Variables:
Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.
Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation.
Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.
Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.
Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.
Conclusion:
The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.
When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.
Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke
Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.
To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons.
This model has been developed to demonstrate how youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.
Assumption
The following assumptions have been made:
25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour.
75% have positive engagement in society
Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years
Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending
Conclusion
It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment.
Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences.
There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.
Bibliography
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.
Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114
Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke
Youth Crime in Bourke
Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.
This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.
Assumptions
For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).
There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.
All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.
Variables
The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).
Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.
Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.
Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.
Observations
This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.
- Bryce
44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
This is a Complex System Model of the Town of Bourke, New South Wales, Australia. A complex model of the patterns, rates and variables of crime within Bourke.
The model shows the relationship between the stocks and the vaiarbales of crime in Bourke, such as:
Bourke Residents
Youth Alienation/Community Engagement
Drugs/Alcohol/Petty Crime
Juvenile Dentetion/Rehabilation
With these rates taken into account:
Access to Drugs and Alcohol
Conviction Rate
Police
Active/Follow ups
Assumptions
This Complex Systems Model is going to assume that the population of Bourke is 1000 people and is constant over the whole timeframe. This is due to the fact of an inability to create a changing population base throughout the time frame.
We will be also making the assumption that the variables stay at a constant rate thoughout the models timeframe, this includes:
Access to drugs and alcohol
Conviction Rate
Police
Active/Follow ups
We are also making the assumption that the individuals in Bourke can only be active in the varaibles and stocks provided, and these will account for the whole population.
Results
In this Complex Systems Model, results where quite obvious and as expected as it was clear situations such as:
Access to Drugs and Alcohol clearly effected the rate of Petty Crime
Active Follow Ups clearly effected the rate of Rehabilitation
Karen Laba
44901836
Clone of Assignment 3 - 44901836
Bourke Youth and Crime Model - Didier Deray
This model illustrates the effect of police and the investment in community development programs on the youth population of Bourke. This representation depicts what happens to the youth that are and aren't convicted from crimes using assumed amounts. It also depicts the youth that transform from juvenile detention and community development programs, and those that recommit crime using assumed numbers.
The investment in community development programs includes sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships and teaching trade-skills.
The two sliders, 'Police' and 'Investment in Community Development Programs', allow their respective impacts on the youth population in Bourke to be observed.
Assumptions
- The youth population in Bourke is 1000
- The maximum number of police in Bourke is 60
- The maximum amount of investment in community development programs is $100 000
- 1/3 of the youth that commit crime do not get convicted
- Out of the youth that participate in the community development programs, 5/6 transform and 1/6 regress to commit crimes again
- Out of the youth that go to juvenile detention, 70% recommit crime and only 30% transform
Suggested Settings with assumptions
- The 'Police' variable is set at 30 because this is the assumed average amount of officers at any time of the day in Bourke
- The 'Investment in Community Development Programs' variable is set at $10 000 because this is the assumed amount of money that is already invested into the programs
Assignment 3 Bourke - 44919182
Youth community of Bourke
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)
This model
displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure,
social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.
The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.
The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.
Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population
-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.
- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.
-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.
-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period
-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.
-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.
STOCKS
- Youth
- Crime – all
offences committed by those under 18
- Punishment
Facility – juvenile detention
- Probation – release from punishment
- Education
system – various programs
VARIABLES
Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.
Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.
Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.
Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.
Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate
INTERESTING RESULTS
Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.
This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.
1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact
Press Simulate.
Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.
Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.
This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..
2/ Social Support Unit impact
Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.
Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.
The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.
3/ Police Unit Impact
Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.
Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.
Conclusions
Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.
Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.
Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.
The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.
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Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime
7 months ago
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