Youth | Insight Maker

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Carrie

18

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

William Dang

About the model

This model depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer club expenditure.

Underlying Assumptions:

Only the youth population of Bourke has the tendency to commit crime
No further external factors other than those presented have an effect on criminal tendencies
‘Risk Factor’ refers to any factors that increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime. This may include exposure to domestic abuse, income level, education level, family background
No ‘jail effect’ - jailed youths do not return to town being more corrupt than before through learning off their cellmates
Only 2 outcomes of participating in the soccer club: being engaged by the social activity and deterred from committing crime, or disengaged and become at risk of committing crime

Constants:

Criminals have a 60% chance of getting convicted
A jail sentence for convicted criminals is 6 months
The top 20% of the most serious offenders get sent to the rehabilitation centre for 3 months, after which they return to town in a better state and less likely to repeat crime
1 session of the soccer club participation is 3 months
Soccer club participants have a 10% chance of being disengaged
Investments into policing, rehabilitation services and the soccer club are felt immediately – no time delay

Interesting results:

A high number of criminals does not necessarily mean they all end up in jail. A stimulation with risk factor at maximum (0.2) and policing at minimum (0.01) shows high numbers of criminals, but they all seem to be in town. When the slider for policing is adjusted to maximum (0.5), the criminals are moved from town to jail. Thus, a high investment in policing is needed to detect and detain criminals.
A generous investment into the soccer club (>0.35) results in a higher number of actively engaged and enlightened youths who then return back to town in a better state. This has an effect of bringing down the number of criminals (implications for long term)
In an ideal world, Bourke would invest maximum levels into policing, rehabilitation and the soccer club, and there would be a minimal risk factor for crime committing tendencies. A stimulation on these settings reflect few criminals, low jail rates and high engagement in the soccer club. However with the towns budget constraints, this is not a feasible solution for the long term.
Instead, a long term solution for Bourke (assuming a moderate risk factor of 0.1) is to allocate some of the policing expenditure (Eg. Down to 0.37) towards maximising community development services:

- The rehabilitation centre will tame the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)

- The soccer club will distract youths from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)

A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged.

Crime Patterns & Community Development in Bourke (44589050)

Crystal Lee

6

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Andrew Sohn

The Model

The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.

Assumptions

Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model

How the Model Works

The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.

Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.

From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.

Parameter Settings and Results

Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development

Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753

Ted Lindsay

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Model Explanation:

One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.

Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.

The Stocks Involved:

Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).

The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:

1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.

Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.

2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.

The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.

--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.

Underlying Assumptions:

-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke

-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.

-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.

Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:

1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.

2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).

3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.

4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.

Conclusions:

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554

Steven D'Alessandro

Revised version of Suicide 3 insight in preparation for an individual based model scoping exercise

Suicide Dynamics 4

Geoff McDonnell

6

Etienne Crouche-McDonald's Youth Alienation in Bourke Model

Assignment #3: Complex Systems

About the Model

The purpose of this model is to show how police and community spending effect engagement levels and crime for the youth within Bourke and how it affects their adult life.

Stocks

Bourke Youth

The initial population of the youth within Bourke.

The latest population figures show Bourke has a poulation of close to 3000, with 35% of them being below 24yrs old, so for this model i have assumed an initial youth population of 1000.

All other variables have an initial value of 0.

Engaged Youth

Youth within Bourke who are engaged with the community and at a low risk of commiting crime.

Alienated Youth

Youth within the community who feel alienated and therefore at a higher risk of commiting crime.

Jailed Youth

Youth who have been incarcerated.

Released Youth

Those who have been released from jail.

Engaged Adults

Those who have grown up to become adults who are at a low risk of commiting crime.

Disengaged Adults

Those who have grown up to become adults at a high risk of commiting crime.

Variables

Police Spending

This is how much funding the police department is recieving. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.

Its affect on Jailed Youth and Released Youth becomes stronger as the number of Jailed Youth increases.

Community Spending

This is how much funding is going into community programs. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.

Its effect on Engaged Youth becomes stronger as the number of Engaged Youth increases.

Births

This is the rate of births which i have assumed to be 100 per year. This is fixed so there is a constant flow into Bourke Youth.

Ageing

This is the rate at which the youth ages out of the youth category. I have set this as a constant.

- 10% of Engaged youth age out every year.

- 5% of Alienated and Jailed youth age out every year.

Interesting Results

1. Set both sliders to 1 and it will more disengaged adults than engaged.

2. Set both sliders to 0.5 and it will show more engaged adults than disengaged

Etienne Crouche-McDonald - 44983921 - Youth Alienation in Bourke

Etienne Crouche-McDonald

INTRODUCTION

This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).

This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.

STOCKS-

Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke

Adult- The adults living in Bourke

Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.

Apprehended- Getting captured by the police

Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.

Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.

VARIABLE-

Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.

The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.

ASSUMPTION-

1) 3000 People living in Bourke

2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse

3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth

4) Crime- 600

5) Apprehended -

6) Community Group - 300

7) Positive life - 100

8) Jail - 480

SUGGESTED SETTING

Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.

High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

CONCLUSION

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.

For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)

Umang Snehi

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Model Explanation:

One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.

Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.

The Stocks Involved:

Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).

The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:

1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.

Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.

2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.

The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.

--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.

Underlying Assumptions:

-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke

-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.

-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.

Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:

1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.

2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).

3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.

4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.

Conclusions:

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!

Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554

Alexander Soetrisno

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Hugh

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Eli

Assignment 3: Complex Systems

Jason Nguyen 43711448

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke.

By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.

About the model

The model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented.

However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.

The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.

The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.

What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.

For example: Set the sliders to these values:

Policing: 25
TAFE Funding: 26

Look at the trade skills vs. juvenile detention simulation. We can see crime rates rise when trade skills aren't largely funded. Then, increase TAFE Funding to 75. Notice that juvenile detention is very low and stays consistently low.

Important notes

The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
These periods are both represented by delays.
No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.

Assignment3_JasonNguyen_Bourke

Jason Nguyen

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.

Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625

Nicholas Hayward

4

Description:
This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.

Initial Assumptions:

Youth in community: 1000
Mischievous youths: 200
Youth involved in crime: 140
Youth in jail: 80

How the Model Works:

1. Youth in Community
The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.

2. Mischievous Youth
After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.

3. Criminal
After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.

4. Jailed
After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.

Simulation:

Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths:
This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught:
This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned:
This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.

Clone of Assignment 3 - William Dang 43664652

Zaiceva Ekaterina

This model describe the relationships between alienation in young people, police intervention and community support in Bourke area.

Youth alienation from society or family values is main cause of juvenile crime.

Bourke have the highest rate of juvenile detection in NSW. Juvenile justice system exposes involved youth to negative influences, arresting their development, interrupting connections to school, family, and work , and increases the likelihood of further involvement. It also affects their development and opportunities in a variety of ways, such as impaired occupational functioning and higher unemployment.

Reinvesting the costs of court charges and juvenile detention in education programs, community initiative and police reforms, will increase the proportion of youth positively involved in society reducing the costs of justice system.

Population characteristic:

Bourke population is 2634 (Census 2016) with a youth population aged 10-24 of ~460 (17.5%).

Assumptions:

For this model we assume the following:

25% of youth population is engaged and 75% of youth population is disengaged

Of the disengaged youth population, 50% is involved in a minor crime/low offence and then 75% charged with detention.

After juvenile detention, only a 30% is re-engaged in a positive life-style

Variables:

Change in education system to increase the proportion of youth engaged in a positive life-style:

- Increase availability of short courses to achieve a qualification

- Information about consequences of small crime

- Inclusion in dedicated internship programs

Community based initiatives to support youth at risk and to reconnect them with local society:

- Engaging youth in social activity to build a community connection

- Improve services available

Police protocols reformed to reduce proportion of youth charged with a small offence to present in Court:

- small charges escalate to higher level of crime for breaking the conditions

- Adapting police protocols to reduce bail enfrangment or apply alternative methods

Conclusions:

This model is showing a decrease of youth disengaged improving education and community activities.

The reduction of youth in court and then detention will reduce the costs of the justice system making funds available to invest in policy change in the police department/justice to adapt to specific cohort of youth in Bourke.

When all the variable are not implemented the model is showing the situation at 2016. Changing the proportion of investments in the three variables will improve the results if youth involved in society and not charged with crime.

References:

The Guardian news article October, 2018

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Urban Instutite: Strategies for Reducing Criminal and Juvenile Justice Involvement, Jesse Jannetta and Cameron Okeke, November 2017

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/94516/strategies-for-reducing-criminal-and-juvenile-justice-involvement.pdf.pdf

KPMG Impact Assessment Report, November 2018,

http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

ABS LGA Census results 2016

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Urban Instutite: Strategies for Reducing Criminal and Juvenile Justice Involvement, Jesse Jannetta and Cameron Okeke, November 2017

https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/94516/strategies-for-reducing-criminal-and-juvenile-justice-involvement.pdf.pdf

The Guardian news article October, 2018

Assignment 4 - Relationship between youth, community activities, education programs and police policies in Bourke

Paola De Angelis

Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options

Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being adults, and 2000 being youth.

This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program chooses to increase punishment for crime, or invest in prevention programs to help the community better themselves and avoid trouble. The overall aim is to reduce imprisonment.

Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when there is an increase in punishment and more policing. Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when preventative measures have been put in place. All variables are given an estimated rate, though the rate is not fixed and viewers are able to adjust the rates using the appropriate slider bars, as limited information has been provided at this given time in relation to the specified rates.

The slider bars for the youth have been given a range of -2000 to 2000 as the population of youth is 2000 and those are the limits. Same applies to the slider bars specified for the adults, though here the limit is from -1000 to 1000.

By setting parameter settings to a value lower than 0, you will start to see a decline in arrests. By setting the parameter over 0 you will see an increase.

Stocks have been colour coded to represent their lines shown in the simulated graph.

Victoria Jakubowski 43300936

Victoria Jakubowski

Background

The town of Bourke is located in far-west northern NSW. Although the population of Bourke is only approximately 3000 people, it has historically had the highest representation of youth crime rates and domestic violence related assaults within Australia (Milliken, 2018).

In 2013, the town implemented a community wide program that saw the diversion of funds from the prison system to a range of community initiatives in the area. This model focuses on the efforts driven towards youth development by the program.

Assumptions

1. It is assumed that the youth population extends to anyone aged between 10-24. According to the ABS 2016 census, there are 368 residents aged between 10-24 in Bourke.

2. The retention rate in 2017 is 66%, which is a 33% increase since before the commencement of the project.

3. The high school attendance rate is 71%.

4. There was a 38% reduction in youth crime since the inception of the project.

5. There were 113 licences obtained through the Birang Driver Program, an 83% increase.

The outcomes of this model demonstrate the positive effects that reinvestment of funds into community development programs can have on Australian youth, particularly Indigenous Australian Youth. Currently Indigenous Australian are grossly overrepresented in Australia incarceration rates with Indigenous youth representing almost 60% of the incarceration population, even though Indigenous youths aged between 10-17, make up on 5% of Australia’s total population (Calma 2016). NSW Health Minister, Brad Hazzard stated that the Maranguka Project demonstrates that to truly address this issue, “the solution has to be empowerment of the people themselves” (Milliken 2018). By having a strong understanding of the successful strategies implemented in Bourke, this can provide a model for other areas in Australia that face similar issues.

References

Milliken, R. (2018). Breakthrough At Bourke

https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/

KPMG, (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Snapshot of Relationships between Youth, the Justice System and Community Development in Bourke

Jade Malle

BACKGROUND

The remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty crime among the town’s youth.

Part of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.

This complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can change this cycle.

While there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation

MODEL EXPLAINED

Simulation of this model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.

Total Youth Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.

This model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).

At Time Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.

STOCKS

- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.

i.e. not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs

- Community Engagement Programs = Number of Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.

Community Engagement Programs consist of multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events

- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing Petty Crimes.

- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in Juvenile Detention.

- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.

- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.

ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of Money being Invested into Community Development

i.e. 15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund

- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in Bourke

i.e. 15 = 15 Active Police Officers

- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)

i.e. 0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear to be corrupt)

UN-ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to commit crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5% percent.

Assumptions:

0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for any reliable intervention.

- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.

Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.

Assumptions:

5% of the juvenile population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to commit petty crimes.

DYNAMIC VARIABLES

- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel Alienated/have no sense of community.

Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.

Assumptions:

Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.

Before taking into account those people that are in the Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be Alienated.

i.e. when Upstanding Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation = 90%

FLOWS

- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)

For every $1000 invested into Community Development Resource $, the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.

The rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50 children coming to Community Engagement Programs we have a percentage increase in Community Involvement rate.

- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom & Recklessness variable.

- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Youth Alienation and Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.

Temptation flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home

- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.

- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.

Increased Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.

- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile Detention population by 4 months.

Assumption: The average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre Sentence.

- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.

Assumption: There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary of Police.

- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the Community Development Resource $ variable.

Community Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.

For every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.

- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and Further Negative Influence Rate.

Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.

Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further Negative Influences Flow of 25%.

- Inspired (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the Positive Influences at Home variable.

- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.

Assumption: There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious Upstanding Members of Bourke society.

- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)

Flow Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%

Assumption: Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation, boredom and recklessness.

EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES

Base Settings:

Police Officers = 10

Community Development Resource $ = 5,000

Police Initiative Rate = 1

⮝ Increasing Community Development Resource $

- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn decreases Youth Alienation. Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.

- Increases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs.

- Increases Upstanding Citizen due to the increase in Community Engagement Programs.

⮟ Decreasing Community Development Resource $

- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn increases Youth Alienation. Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.

- Decreases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs .

- Decreases Upstanding Citizen due to the decrease in Community Engagement Programs.

⮝ Increasing Police Officers

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Officers

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

⮝ Increasing Police Initiative

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Initiative

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

INTERESTING POINTS

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice how Youth just constantly circulate between Home, Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged with the amount of children in Community Engagement and Upstanding Citizens stocks seem Negligible

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 30,000 , Police Officers to 1 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding Citizens

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.

Notice that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any improvement in the situation.

43324525 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - Youth Crime Cycle

Desnica Kumar

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Andy West

ABOUT THE MODEL
This model simulates the possible rate of crime amongst youth in a small town called Bourke through the variable expenditures of community engagement and policing/punishment. The model shows how the youth population of Bourke have the choice to join in community activities

Youth and community investment in Bourke

Lisa Ma

Assessment 4.

This model highlights the interdependent relationship between:

- Police funding

- Community Development

- Youth Alienation

And the impact they have on youth engagement levels over time in the NSW town of Bourke.

Assumptions

The model assumes the youth population of bourke to be 1000 people.

Constants

-Community Group effect is delayed by 3 months, aligning the model to seasonality to account for the large impact seasonal sport has on rural community.

- 20% of youth will disengage with the community after realising the development funding doesn't align to their interests.

- 80% of disengaged youth will be at risk of committing a crime.

- 19% of youth arrested will have their charges dropped

- 81% will have a conviction recorded

- 21% of detained youth will be rehabilitated in line with the NSW average.

- 79% of detained youth will re-offend in line with the NSW average.

Variables

- Police Force Funding can be adjusted upward or downward to simulate the effect on engagement, disengagement and crime levels.

- Community Development Funding can be adjusted to simulate the positive effect developing programs and opportunity for youth in Bourke may have on their engagement in society and the overall crime rate amongst their cohort.

- Youth Alienation slider allows the rate of youth alienation (Exposure to violence, drugs, alcohol. Lack of training, education and opportunity), to be slowed and speed up to simulate the impact it has on engagement and crime levels.

MKT - 563 - Student 11376247 Brenton Nisbet

Brenton Nisbet

This Model showcases the interplay between the Youth and Crime in Bourke with a monopoly of contributing factors.

The Groups and factors are explained in depth below.

With a total population of 3000 the the total youth population is estimated to 2000.

Youth: Initialing this encompasses 2000 individuals aged 15-25 years that are currently living in Bourke.

Crime: this denotes the number of youth involved in crime

Conviction: this includes youth that have been caught after committing a crime.

Youth in detention: the number of youth that have been detained for a period of time after being convicted of a crime.

Community program involvement: The number of youth that participate in community programs.

FACTORS (affecting the groups above)

Crime Rate: the rate at which youth commit a crime, this variable based upon 'alienation'.

Caught: the ratio of youth committing crime are caught. This is variable based upon the 'policing expenditure'

Alienation: a ratio reflecting the division between Bourke's youth and law enforcement. This variable is based upon the level of policing expenditure and community program expenditure.

Policing Expenditure: The respective amount of money (000's of dollars) allocated to tackle youth crime.

SLIDER

min: 5 ($5,000)

max: 50 ($50,000)

Community Program Expenditure: The respective amount of money (000's of dollars) allocated running community programs aimed to help Bourke's youth population.

SLIDER

min: 0 ($0)

max: 40 ($40,000)

By adjusting the policing and community program expenditure parameters using the sliders shows fluctuations between the groups. For example, by increasing policing expenditure will increase alienation, subsequently the crime rate will increase. Furthermore an increase in the proportion of youth committing crime that are caught, subsequently increasing the youth being convicted and in detention.

On the other using the slider to increase the expenditure on community programs, will see increase in the the number of youth involved in the programs. Also the level of alienation will decrease and subsequently reflecting in a reduced crime rate.

Time variable used in this model is Months. This is shown in the relative simulations.

Bourke's Youth Crime (Rowena Mackintosh 43661041)

Rowena Mackintosh

Assignment

This assignment illustrates the effects of police fundings and community expenditure on the society.

And how we can improve the Town (Bourke).

Stocks

Population- Population of Bourke (3000)

Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults

Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young

Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.

Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed

Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.

Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.

Variables

Community Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.

Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.

Assumptions

1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.

2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.

3. 60% of the population is Adults

4. 40% of the population is Youth

5. 500 people are already doing crime

6. 365 people are already in jail.

7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle

8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.

9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.

10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.

How Model Works

--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group.

--If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.

--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police.

--Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.

--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.

All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.

Assignment_3_MGMT220_[44178751]

Laksh Taneja

Youth Models