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Justice

MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Lisa Ma

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.



Crime Justice Youth Investment

  • 2 years 2 months ago

Crime Patterns & Community Development in Bourke (44589050)

Crystal Lee

About the model

This model depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer club expenditure.

 

Underlying Assumptions:

  1. Only the youth population of Bourke has the tendency to commit crime
  2. No further external factors other than those presented have an effect on criminal tendencies
  3. ‘Risk Factor’ refers to any factors that increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime. This may include exposure to domestic abuse, income level, education level, family background
  4. No ‘jail effect’ -  jailed youths do not return to town being more corrupt than before through learning off their cellmates
  5. Only 2 outcomes of participating in the soccer club: being engaged by the social activity and deterred from committing crime, or disengaged and become at risk of committing crime

 

Constants:

  • Criminals have a 60% chance of getting convicted
  • A jail sentence for convicted criminals is 6 months
  • The top 20% of the most serious offenders get sent to the rehabilitation centre for 3 months, after which they return to town in a better state and less likely to repeat crime
  • 1 session of the soccer club participation is 3 months
  • Soccer club participants have a 10% chance of being disengaged
  • Investments into policing, rehabilitation services and the soccer club are felt immediately – no time delay

 

Interesting results:

  1. A high number of criminals does not necessarily mean they all end up in jail. A stimulation with risk factor at maximum (0.2) and policing at minimum (0.01) shows high numbers of criminals, but they all seem to be in town. When the slider for policing is adjusted to maximum (0.5), the criminals are moved from town to jail. Thus, a high investment in policing is needed to detect and detain criminals.
  2. A generous investment into the soccer club (>0.35) results in a higher number of actively engaged and enlightened youths who then return back to town in a better state. This has an effect of bringing down the number of criminals (implications for long term)
  3. In an ideal world, Bourke would invest maximum levels into policing, rehabilitation and the soccer club, and there would be a minimal risk factor for crime committing tendencies. A stimulation on these settings reflect few criminals, low jail rates and high engagement in the soccer club. However with the towns budget constraints, this is not a feasible solution for the long term.
  4. Instead, a long term solution for Bourke (assuming a moderate risk factor of 0.1) is to allocate some of the policing expenditure (Eg. Down to 0.37) towards maximising community development services:

- The rehabilitation centre will tame the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)

- The soccer club will distract youths from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)

A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged. 

Crime Justice Youth Investment

  • 2 years 9 months ago

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework Model for Bourke

Josh Stevens
Model Explanation ​This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime. 
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail). 

Assumptions
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion. 
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age. 
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.  
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars. 
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Interesting Results
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.  

Crime Government Reinvestment Justice MGMT220 Bourke Australia

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke-Yuxi Wang (44559291)

Yuxi Wang

A Model of the Rate of Adult and Youth Crime and Community Spending in Bourke:

This is a model which displays whether community spending and the number of police can affect both adult and youth in committing a crime and becoming involved in community activities. 


The Underlying Assumptions:


It is assumed that adults and youths in the town of Bourke are the populations that we are interested in modelling. It is noted that a high number of people in Bourke are engaged in crimes. Therefore, people in Bourke are tempted or likely to commit petty crimes. Since petty crimes are not serious offences, both adults and youths who commit petty crimes will return to being adults and youths. However, if the crime is thought to be serious, people are sent to jail as a consequence. Once the people in jail serve their jail sentence, they are released from jail and returned to being themselves. 


In addition, the community introduced community activities, such as football clubs to reduce the number of crimes. Adults and youths in Bourke can be engaged with community activities and then return to being themselves. 


The variables of community spending and number of police are sliders which demonstrate the level of influence on different stocks and relationships when the number of police and community spending are adjusted. The simulation will reflect the adjusted pattern/trend. For example, if we hold community spending constant while adjusting the number of police, we see at one police officer, many people are committing petty crimes and not many are caught and placed in jail. However, if we change the number of police to 30, we can see a decrease in petty crimes and an increase in going to jail. Furthermore, if we change police to 60, almost no one is committing a petty crime and no one is sent to jail. 



• There are no other influences besides community spending and the number of police.

• The number of police is negatively related to the amount of petty crime.

• People are not learning from past mistakes.

• Community spending is negatively related to the amount of petty crime, but positively related to engaging in community activities.

• All values and time period, concepts are made up for the purposes of the model and for simplicity. They do not reflect real-life figures or time periods. 


 • Initial values are as follow:

           Bourke youth: 1000

           Bourke adult: 1000

           Bourke petty crime: 500

           Bourke jailed population: 500



Explanation of the model:


This model begins with adults and youths engaging in petty crime. Petty crime activities may include theft, assault or disorderly conduct like domestic violence in adults. Petty crime or the more serious crimes that lead to jail are affected by the number of police, and amount of community spending. The number of police affects the amount of people getting caught committing a petty crime or placed in jail. In addition, if people are not caught or did not commit a serious crime, they are returned to being adults and youths. 

Moreover, for the people in jail, they are sentenced for a period of 4 months before being released back to being themselves. This period of 4 months can vary for different crimes and does not represent the actual or real-life time period for any crimes. 


It is assumed that the justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will have community activities like football clubs. The purpose of the plan is to reduce the amount of crime and people going to jail. Thus, people in Bourke are engaged in these activities for 4 months, during which it prevents people from committing a crime.








Justice Crime

  • 2 years 10 months ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Tuan Dat Huynh
THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

  •      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  •      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  •      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  •      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  •      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:  

  • It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  • Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

  •      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  •      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  •      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  •      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Crime

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396

Mark Robinson
The complex systems model ‘Engagement vs Police Expenditure for Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW’ evaluates the effectiveness of allocating government funding to either community engagement activities or law enforcement. In this model, it is possible for the user to designate resources from a scale of 20-100 and to also modify the crime rate for both adults and youth. Below, there are detailed notes that describe the reasoning and assumptions that justify the logic applied to this model. Similar notes can be found when stocks, flows and variables is clicked under the field ‘notes’.

Portions

Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.

Crime Rate

Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.

Avoiding Gaol

Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.

Conviction

​It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.

Released

​It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation. 

Engagement

​Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime. 

Boredom

Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%. 

Crime Policing Justice

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Jack Sun
This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.
Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.
  • Initial Values:
  • Youth: 750
  • Juveniles in Detention: 50
  • Petty Criminals: 200
  • Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0


Assumptions: 
  • With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
  • There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
  • There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
  • The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
  • There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
  • There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
  • The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
  • Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.
Key Notes:
  • During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
  • If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
  • It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
  • If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
  • Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.
Jack Sun 44614586

Justice Crime Community Development

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Modelling Social Physics - System Dynamics Projects

Lisa Martinez
Concepts are designed for Universatility and local variables without forcing a one size fits all model. 

Measurements in the course are designed to maintain a system perspective in all planning and measurement systems. 

Students will acquire hands on modeling skills using either video learning offered by System Thinking World host and easily viewed through the right hand side of the page conveniently located are links to the video series.  

A facilitator may offer traditional instruction or ideally students from the graduating students are teaching the next group of students and improving the way the materials is presented.

Environment Justice People Planet Poverty Partnerships

  • 4 years 7 months ago

Justice Reinvestment In Bourke - 44560753

Ted Lindsay
The Model
The model displayed depicts the interaction that the youth of Bourke has with the justice system and focuses on how factors like policing and community development affect the crime rate within this area. Bourke is a rural town that has a significant crime rate among youth. Local community members call for action to be taken in regards to this, meaning that steps must be taken to reduce the crime rate. This simple model explores how the amount of police and the investment of community development can have an effect on the town in regards to its issue of crime among youth.

Assumptions
  • Bourke's youth population is 1200, with 700 in town, 200 committing crimes and 300 already in jail
  • The amount of police, the expenditure on community development, and the domestic violence rate are the factors which have the potential to influence youth to commit crimes. The domestic violence rate is also influenced by the expenditure on community development.
  • Sporting clubs, interpersonal relationships between youth and police, and teaching trade skills all make up community expenditure
  • Activities relating to expenditure on community development run throughout the year, indicating that there is no delay where youth are not involved in these activities.
  • Every 6 months, only 60% of jailed youth are released. This may be for various factors such as committing crime in jail or being issued with lengthier sentences due to the severity of the crime(s) committed
  • 10% of youth who agree that domestic violence is an issue at home will commit crime
  • There is a delay of 1 month before youth go to jail for crime(s) committed. This model assumes that youth who have committed crime either return home (by decision or by not being caught) or go to jail. It also assumes that other punishments such as community service refer to returning back home.
  • The simulation takes place over a duration of 5 years (60 months)
  • Adults have little effect on the youth. Only where domestic violence is concerned do they play a factor within this model

How the Model Works
The model begins with the assumptions previously stated. Youth have the potential to commit a crime. 3 main variables influence this decision, including the amount of police, expenditure on community development, and domestic violence rate (which is influenced by the previous variable). These 3 variables are able to be adjusted using the relevant sliders with 0.5 indicating a low investment and 0.9 indicating a high investment. Police also have an influence on this decision. This variable is also able to be adjusted by a slider. Last of all, the domestic violence rate also contributes to this decision and this variable is negatively influenced by community development.
Once a youth has committed a crime they are either convicted and sent to jail or return back to town. The conviction rate is also influenced by the amount of police in town, as youth are more likely to get caught and thus jailed. Once again, the Police variable is able to be adjusted via the slider. This process takes a month.
From here, youth typically spend 6 months in jail. After this time period 60% are released while the remaining 40% remain in jail either due to lengthier sentences for more severe crimes or due to incidents within jail. The process then repeats.

Parameter Settings and Results
  • Initially there is a state of fluctuation within this model. It may be a good idea to ignore it and pay attention to how variables change over time from their initial state
  • Increasing the amount of police will raise the amount of people jailed and decrease crime
  • Increasing the community development variables from a minimal investment (i.e. set at 0.5) to a high investment (i.e. set at 0.9) will reduce both the crime rate and the conviction rate. It is worth noting that the community development variable also influences the domestic violence rate variable which also has an effect on the results
  • If only 2 of the 3 community development variables have a high investment then there is not much effect on the crime rate or jail rate. All 3 variables should be given the same level of investment to give us a desired outcome
  • The model does allow for a maximum of 40 police (as we do not want to spend more money on police than we already have in the past), as well as the maximum investment for community development. When choosing settings it may be necessary to ponder if it is financially realistic to maintain both a large number of police as well as investing heavily into community development

Justice Crime Youth Bourke Community

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104

Visagan Kajendran
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke 
About/Background:This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe. 
Initial Values:Home - 1000Juvenile Detention - 0Sporting Clubs - 0Trade Skills - 0Petty Crime - 0Interpersonal Relationships - 0
Variables:Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs 
Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others 
Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke 
Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated   Assumptions: - The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000) - When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated. 
Interesting Results:1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs 3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills. 

Justice Crime Community Development

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Bourke Community (C.Woods, 44593961)

Caitlin Woods
Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development​
This complex systems model depicts the impact of factors such as violence and community programs on the youth of Bourke. The time scale is in months and shows the next 6 years. The model aims to show how by altering expenditure in different areas, the town of Bourke can decrease crime and increase their population involvement in community programs. This model is intended to be dynamic to allow the user to change certain variables to see changes in impact
The town of Bourke has a population of 3634 people, 903 of which are classified as youth (being 0-24 inclusive) (ABS, 2016 census).This population starts with all youths in three differing stocks:- 703 in Youth- 100 in Juvenile Detention- 100 in Rehabilitation

Assumptions:This model makes many assumptions that would not necessarily uphold in reality.
- Only the youth of the town are committing crimes. - All convicted youths spend 6 months in juvenile detention. - All convicted youths must go to rehabilitation after juvenile detention and spend 2 months there. - The risk rate impacts upon every youth committing a crime and is a  broad term covering effects such as abuse. - No gaol effect, youths do not return to town with a tendency to re- commit a crime. - No further external factors than those given. - There cannot be zero expenditure in any of the fields.

The stocks:Each stock depicts a different action or place that an individual youth may find themselves in. These stocks include:- Youth (the youths living in Bourke, where youths are if they are not committing crimes or in community programs)- Petty Crime (crimes committed by the youths of Bourke such as stealing)- Juvenile Detention (where convicted youths go)- Rehabilitation- Community Programs

The variables:- Community Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)- Law Enforcement Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.6)- Rehabilitation Expenditure (parameter 0.1-0.4)- Risk Rate (not adjustable but alters with Law Enforcement Expenditure)
Sliders on each of the expenditure variables have been provided. These variables indicate the percentage of the criminal minimising budget for Bourke.Note that to be realistic, one should make the three differing sliders be equal to 1, in order to show 100% of expenditure

Base Parameter Settings:- Law Enforcement Expenditure = 0.5- Community Expenditure = 0.25- Rehabilitation Expenditure = 0.25
Interesting Parameter Settings:- When Law Enforcement is at 0.45 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.3 and 0.25 (in either order) then convicted and not-convicted values are the same. If Law Enforcement expenditure goes any lower then the number of convicted youths is less than those not-convicted and vice versa if the expenditure is increased.- When Law Enforcement is at 0.2 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.4 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime and thus detention occurs in a shorter and more rapid time frame. This shows that crime can be minimised in this model almost entirely through community initiatives.- Alternatively, when Law Enforcement is at 0.6 and Community and Rehabilitation at 0.2 each then the increase in community programs and decrease in crime occurs over a longer time period with more incremental change.


Population Source:

http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument


Crime Community Justice Youth

  • 1 year 9 months ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke (Emphasis on Detention)

Vidhi Bansal
This model highlights the effects of community expenditure and policing expenditure on youth and adult detention within Bourke. We can see the role these expenditures play within the crime rates for both groups.

- Adults include all those individuals above 18 years old- Youth are those individuals below 18 years old- Petty crime is the offences committed by youths- Crime is the offences committed by adults- Community programs can include any program aimed at bettering individuals e.g sports, community cleanups- Juvenile Detention is for youths- Adult Detention is for adults
The sliders presented allow us to vary the level of funding given for either community or policing expenditure. Both of these include a range from 0-1, hence we are able to select which proportion of funding goes where in order to view how it affects the community justice system.

Detention Justice Reinvestment

  • 1 year 10 months ago

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke (Emphasis on Detention)

Vidhi Bansal
This model highlights the effects of community expenditure and policing expenditure on youth and adult detention within Bourke. We can see the role these expenditures play within the crime rates for both groups.

- Adults include all those individuals above 18 years old- Youth are those individuals below 18 years old- Petty crime is the offences committed by youths- Crime is the offences committed by adults- Community programs can include any program aimed at bettering individuals e.g sports, community cleanups- Juvenile Detention is for youths- Adult Detention is for adults
The sliders presented allow us to vary the level of funding given for either community or policing expenditure. Both of these include a range from 0-1, hence we are able to select which proportion of funding goes where in order to view how it affects the community justice system.

Detention Justice Reinvestment

  • 1 year 9 months ago

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens
Model Explanation ​This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime. 
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail). 

Assumptions
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion. 
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age. 
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.  
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars. 
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Interesting Results
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.  

Crime Government Reinvestment Justice MGMT220 Bourke Australia

  • 1 year 10 months ago

Clone of Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Phillip McDonald
THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

  •      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  •      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  •      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  •      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  •      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:  

  • It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  • Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

  •      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  •      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  •      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  •      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Crime

  • 1 year 3 months ago

Clone of Starting point for assignment

Christopher Masi

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

 

A simple model of the township Bourke, showing the effects of community engagement within the youth population.

 

In-depth Explanation

This model uses the youth of Bourke and their temptation to commit crimes. These crimes are usually committed out of boredom and generally include: Breaking and entering, stealing, vandalism etc.  The model depicts that the increase of police presents means that will be an increase of youths caught and convicted whilst also providing in the reduction in the temptation to commit a crime. Those youths that are caught and convicted are sent to juvenile detention where they undertake rehabilitation. Depending on this rehabilitation youths will either be released back into the community where they may attend school or youth activities or become bored again and re-commit or released back into a life of crime pending unsuccessful rehabilitation.

 

Taking into consideration the Justice Reinvestment plan some of the funds used to increase policing will be used instead to improve community development. This has a knock on effect on crime as there will be better youth activities running to keep youths engaged and free of boredom. This keeps youths out of juvenile detention and also encourages them to go to school.

 

School attendance also has an effect on the temptation to commit a crime, if a youth is attending school then they are less likely to be out and about committing crimes. It was noted by Bourke High school Annual report 2012 that their attendance was a little over 60%.

 

Upon simulation there are a number of graphs that have been generated, these include Crime & Detention, Crime vs School, Crime vs Youth Activities, Town, Detention & Youth Engagement and School vs Youth Activities. These graphs along with the variable sliders show what sort of impact increase and decreasing the variable will have on the town and the youth’s rate of crime and detention. These graphs can then be used to make a informed decision on where it’s best to spend the money of the Justice Reinvestment plan.

 

Variables

  • ·         Policing - is positively related to the likelihood of being caught and convicted whilst also being negatively related to commit a crime
  • ·         Community development -  is positively related to likelihood of youth partaking in youth activities and is negatively related to the likelihood to commit a crime
  • ·         Rehabilitation Effectiveness – is positively related to successful rehabilitation and re-joining the community and is negatively related to Reoffending and committing crime after release
  • ·         School Attendance – Positively related to the likelihood of youth to attend school, and is negatively related to the likelihood of committing a crime
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Assumptions

  • ·         Youth will be in school for 3 months before going on holidays
  • ·         Youth activities will be run for 6 months
  • ·         Youths will be held in detention for 6 months
  • ·         No other factors other than Policing, community development, rehabilitation effectiveness and School attendance.
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Initial values

  • ·         In 2014 ABS noted that 35% of Bourke are youth age 0-25 that means of the 3000 population 1050 people are youths.
  • ·         Crime there are currently 100 youths committing crime
  • ·         There are currently 100 youths in Juvenile Detention
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Justice Community Engagement

  • 2 years 9 months ago

Clone of MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Eli

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.



Crime Justice Youth Investment

  • 1 year 9 months ago

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