Community Development | Insight Maker

Aim The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over

Aim

The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

44839960 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Timothy Tsang

Aim

The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

Clone of 44839960 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Uranchimeg Byambajav

Background:

The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).

Underlying Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)

Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)

Budget: $4,000,000

Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION

The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.

Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)

That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.

The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investment

Parameters:

Community Investment
Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.

About this Model:

The Units of measure has been set to months
Simulation Length is set to 48 months
It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.

Interesting Simulations

Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education

Final Conclusions:

It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.

By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.

Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated.

Clone of assignment3 bourke_43658083

Pavel Burmakin

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Clone of Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Visagan Kajendran

MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099)

Introduction

Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people.

Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.

In 2013, the township of Bourke implemented the first pilot program for justice reinvestment, with Aboriginal leadership. The program is known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

Youth development

Reform to youth development and an increase in participation-based programs allowed for an increase in youth involvement within the community. Programs such as the School Holiday program or the 8 to 18-year-old working group helped to contribute towards a positive shift in youth inclusion and reduce alienation such as high school absenteeism, high school non graduate rate and an increase in TAFE/VET enrolments (and subsequent completions).

Police and Legal System

Through a series of initiatives aimed at Adult Empowerment, a decrease in bail breaches saw a 21% reduction YOY, as well as a 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents. The initiatives included the Role of Men working group, Early Childhood and Parenting work group and Aboriginal employment prosperity strategy. There was a 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a top criminal offence YOY from 2016 to 2017.

Community development

As of 2020, the ABC reported that North-Western NSW children are still at a disadvantage with some of the state’s highest percentages for lack of internet access, with Bourke reporting 30.1% of children still do not have internet access at home.

One of the community (and youth) initiatives implemented was the Birrang Learner Driver Program. The program saw an 83% increase in successful test completions YOY with 2016.

Initial parameters

- Internet access = 0.625

- Licence success rate = 0.83

- High school students = 160

- High school attendance rate = 0.74

- TAFE completion rate = 0.84

- Reoffence rate = 0.695

- Crime = 239 (arrests by charged rate)

- Charged = 0.38

- Breach rate = 0.27

- Youths = 302

- Arrests = 91

- Aboriginal background = 0.60

Variables (sliders)

Internet access

- Licence success rate

- High school students

- High school attendance rate

- TAFE completion rate

- Reoffence rate

- Crime

- Charged

- Breach rate

Assumptions

- Bourke has 31.5% aboriginal population.

- TAFE enrolments are governed by successful high school graduates.

- 3.3% of juveniles under 18 attend technical and further education

- There are 160 high school students – 60% have an Aboriginal background

- The attendance rate for high school students is 74%

- It would stand to reason that the absentee rate is 100 – 74 = initial value is 26%

- The simulation has been set to run for 5 years

- There are 302 youths aged between 10 and 19 years old

- 15-19 year olds make up for 4.6% of the population in Bourke (121).

- Licences achieved had an 83% increase YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 27% reduction in juvenile bail breaches YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a “top 5 offence” (91 arrests)

References

Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Data by region. Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=lga&rgn=11150

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG. (2018, November). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

McCutcheon, J. (2020, August 27). Internet at home not available to 26pc of children living in remote New South Wales. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-28/internet-access-for-students-in-the-bush-unequal-to-city-kids/12601120

MKT563 - Assignment 4

Jodi Thornton

Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police.

SID: 43626971.

Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.

Model of Bourke's crime problem

Yu Mao

Background

The town of Bourke is located in far-west northern NSW. Although the population of Bourke is only approximately 3000 people, it has historically had the highest representation of youth crime rates and domestic violence related assaults within Australia (Milliken, 2018).

In 2013, the town implemented a community wide program that saw the diversion of funds from the prison system to a range of community initiatives in the area. This model focuses on the efforts driven towards youth development by the program.

Assumptions

1. It is assumed that the youth population extends to anyone aged between 10-24. According to the ABS 2016 census, there are 368 residents aged between 10-24 in Bourke.

2. The retention rate in 2017 is 66%, which is a 33% increase since before the commencement of the project.

3. The high school attendance rate is 71%.

4. There was a 38% reduction in youth crime since the inception of the project.

5. There were 113 licences obtained through the Birang Driver Program, an 83% increase.

The outcomes of this model demonstrate the positive effects that reinvestment of funds into community development programs can have on Australian youth, particularly Indigenous Australian Youth. Currently Indigenous Australian are grossly overrepresented in Australia incarceration rates with Indigenous youth representing almost 60% of the incarceration population, even though Indigenous youths aged between 10-17, make up on 5% of Australia’s total population (Calma 2016). NSW Health Minister, Brad Hazzard stated that the Maranguka Project demonstrates that to truly address this issue, “the solution has to be empowerment of the people themselves” (Milliken 2018). By having a strong understanding of the successful strategies implemented in Bourke, this can provide a model for other areas in Australia that face similar issues.

References

Milliken, R. (2018). Breakthrough At Bourke

https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/

KPMG, (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Snapshot of Relationships between Youth, the Justice System and Community Development in Bourke

Jade Malle

Yu Mao's questionable and barely functional model on Bourke's crime landscape with consideration of community development and police.

SID: 43626971.

Model displays the impacts of community development and police simultaneously on offenders in both youth and adult age groups. Also considers these variables simultaneously.

Clone of Model of Bourke's crime problem

Ray Madachy

Assignment 3: Complex Systems

Jason Nguyen 43711448

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke.

By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.

About the model

The model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented.

However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.

The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.

The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.

What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.

For example: Set the sliders to these values:

Policing: 25
TAFE Funding: 26

Look at the trade skills vs. juvenile detention simulation. We can see crime rates rise when trade skills aren't largely funded. Then, increase TAFE Funding to 75. Notice that juvenile detention is very low and stays consistently low.

Important notes

The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
These periods are both represented by delays.
No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.

Assignment3_JasonNguyen_Bourke

Jason Nguyen

MKT563, Assessment 4

Uranchimeg Byambajav

Student No: 11728701

About the Model:

The aim of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions:

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables:

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The number of resources put into policing determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns:

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

References:

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Allam, L. (2018, October 9). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG Impact Assessment. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Uranchimeg Byambajav 11728701 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Uranchimeg Byambajav

BACKGROUND

The remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty crime among the town’s youth.

Part of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.

This complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can change this cycle.

While there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation

MODEL EXPLAINED

Simulation of this model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.

Total Youth Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.

This model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).

At Time Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.

STOCKS

- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.

i.e. not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs

- Community Engagement Programs = Number of Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.

Community Engagement Programs consist of multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events

- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing Petty Crimes.

- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in Juvenile Detention.

- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.

- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.

ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of Money being Invested into Community Development

i.e. 15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund

- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in Bourke

i.e. 15 = 15 Active Police Officers

- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)

i.e. 0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear to be corrupt)

UN-ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to commit crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5% percent.

Assumptions:

0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for any reliable intervention.

- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.

Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.

Assumptions:

5% of the juvenile population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to commit petty crimes.

DYNAMIC VARIABLES

- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel Alienated/have no sense of community.

Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.

Assumptions:

Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.

Before taking into account those people that are in the Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be Alienated.

i.e. when Upstanding Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation = 90%

FLOWS

- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)

For every $1000 invested into Community Development Resource $, the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.

The rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50 children coming to Community Engagement Programs we have a percentage increase in Community Involvement rate.

- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom & Recklessness variable.

- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Youth Alienation and Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.

Temptation flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home

- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.

- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.

Increased Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.

- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile Detention population by 4 months.

Assumption: The average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre Sentence.

- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.

Assumption: There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary of Police.

- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the Community Development Resource $ variable.

Community Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.

For every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.

- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and Further Negative Influence Rate.

Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.

Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further Negative Influences Flow of 25%.

- Inspired (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the Positive Influences at Home variable.

- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.

Assumption: There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious Upstanding Members of Bourke society.

- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)

Flow Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%

Assumption: Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation, boredom and recklessness.

EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES

Base Settings:

Police Officers = 10

Community Development Resource $ = 5,000

Police Initiative Rate = 1

⮝ Increasing Community Development Resource $

- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn decreases Youth Alienation. Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.

- Increases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs.

- Increases Upstanding Citizen due to the increase in Community Engagement Programs.

⮟ Decreasing Community Development Resource $

- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn increases Youth Alienation. Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.

- Decreases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs .

- Decreases Upstanding Citizen due to the decrease in Community Engagement Programs.

⮝ Increasing Police Officers

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Officers

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

⮝ Increasing Police Initiative

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Initiative

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

INTERESTING POINTS

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice how Youth just constantly circulate between Home, Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged with the amount of children in Community Engagement and Upstanding Citizens stocks seem Negligible

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 30,000 , Police Officers to 1 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding Citizens

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.

Notice that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any improvement in the situation.

43324525 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - Youth Crime Cycle

Desnica Kumar

Introduction

This model demonstrates how youth alienation, community development, intervention and other variables interact with each other. Specifically, how the impact of a community project like Maranguka could positively impact an otherwise declining community in the town of Bourke.

Assumptions

Members of society who are positively engaged in the community will not divert to a negative path.

Variables will remain relatively similar throughout time.

Model explanation

It is evident that without intervention, an already troubled community will continue to travel down a negative path of alienation and poor education, resulting in continued crime and community decline.

However, as stated in KPMG’s report (KPMG, 2018), intervention through community programs, investment and police presence can significantly contribute to student retention and course completion rates, reduced crime and increased employment rates – resulting in self-sufficiency and community uplift. It is therefore suffice to say the benefits of community reinvestment far outweigh the original costs.

References

KPMG, 2018. Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project Impact Assessment. [online] Available at: <https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf>.

Relationship between youth alienation, police, and community development in Bourke

Leanne Simons

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Jack Sun

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

About/Background:

This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe.

Initial Values:

Home - 1000

Juvenile Detention - 0

Sporting Clubs - 0

Trade Skills - 0

Petty Crime - 0

Interpersonal Relationships - 0

Variables:

Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs

Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others

Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke

Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated

Assumptions:

- The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000)

- When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed

- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills

- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime

- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated.

Interesting Results:

1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths

2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs

3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills.

Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104

Visagan Kajendran

Background:

The following model portrays the patterns of crime and community development in Bourke. Bourke is a town with exceptionally high rates of crime, especially within the youth population. The model created shows the methods taken to allow more community investment and more level of law enforcement (or the combination of both).

Underlying Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 2,973 (2014 ABS)

Bourke total youth population: approx 1000 (Based on 2014 ABS, individuals aged between 0-24 Which correlates to approximately 35.2% of the Total Population)

Budget: $4,000,000

Youth population has been sourced from: http://stat.abs.gov.au/itt/r.jsp?RegionSummary&region=11150&dataset=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&geoconcept=REGION&datasetASGS=ABS_REGIONAL_ASGS&datasetLGA=ABS_REGIONAL_LGA&regionLGA=REGION&regionASGS=REGION

The Assumption of the model is that we begin with a population of young individuals who are neither criminal or non-criminal/committed the crime. Based on this idea, 250 of these individuals are currently incarcerated and 250 are currently committing crime though when simulated the model will illustrate how Law enforcement spending, community investment can impact Bourke's youth population.

Furthermore, after conducting some research, it can be concluded that based on several sources such as (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/criminology-can-lack-education-linked-incarceration-nigel-wade) and (https://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/Vol07x03TheCauseofCrime.pdf)

That lack of education such as tafe or career skills can lead to increasing crime rates as important social skills can be developed in schooling.

The Sliders of this complex system represent the extent of spending by Law Enforcement, community investment

Parameters:

Community Investment
Law Enforcement

Adjusting spending of these parameters will present different results and different relationships.

About this Model:

The Units of measure has been set to months
Simulation Length is set to 48 months
It must be mentioned that it takes approximately 6 months before youth are sufficiently engaged
The flow committed is a negative relationship, therefore the lower the level of law enforcement chosen, the greater the level of crime will be committed
Similarly, incarcerated into prison will be based on the level of enforcement, if greater law enforcement is applied, there will be more individuals incarcerated and put into prison, vice versa, the less law enforcement applied, more crime will go unnoticed.
Attending Tafe/education relies of the level of community investment spent by the government, If the state government decided to invest more into the community, more youth population will be attending Tafe, though in contrast if less is spent towards Tafe/Eduction, less engagement will occur with the youth population
Tafe/Education is directly linked with the level of crime committed, if more youth population attends tafe/education due to increase in community investment, less crime will be committed. Though, Consequently, the less youth population who attends Tafe/education, the more they will potentially engage in committing a crime.
During periods of high attendance, it was evident that crime rate would drop, though when tafe/education levels have drops to 0 (0 level assumes that youth population either finished the course or left early), crime begins to increase again.

Interesting Simulations

Increasing Community and Law Enforcement to high levels, crime rate decreases and prison rate would naturally increase. Though there seems to be large drops in youths in the town, this can be associated with the large level of community investment as the youth would potentially be in Tafe/Educations during those periods
When simulating with Law Enforcement set to about half way (25) and community investment at 50-70, Tafe/Education begins to severely increase on simulations but has period of decline, which can be linked to completion of course or leaving. During the spike of Tafe/education, crime is quite low, though when it begins to decline, crime starts to once again increase (Tafe/Education vs Crime)
Another interesting simulation is interaction of youth within community sports. Their is allocation for sports spending for youth to help them engage in positive activity in order to avoid crime. By adjusting sports investment it was evident that crime committed was impacted. The most investment into sports, the lower level of crime is committed, if we reduce sports investment, we can see that crime committed begins to increase
Looking at the Released simulation, we acknowledged that is takes approximately 6 months for youth to properly be engaged, so this makes perfect sense that after 6 months, less prisoners are being released as less crime is being committed due to community sports and Tafe/Education

Final Conclusions:

It seems Crime is impacted by many factors such as Tafe/education and community sports. Though the level of crime fluctuates using the parameters, Law Enforcement, Community investment.

By increasing any of these parameters, you will begin to see crime reduce as youth are occupied with other activities in their lives.

Law enforcement does assist with crime but it more so allows less crime to go unnoticed (return) as prison intake increases because more youth are being caught and incarcerated.

assignment3 bourke_43658083

Tiam Rahmati

Social pressures create {Youth Alienation}, leading to youth developing bad behaviours and committing crimes. This attracts {Police Enforcement} who will, in turn, engage the {Community Leadership} where they introduce programs that are designed to assist youth to prevent re-offending through the development of {Community Clubs}, which then contributes to {Community Development}.

{Police Enforcement} collaborates with {Educational Institutions} to boost retention, which translates to socio-economic progress through {Community Development}. On the other hand, criminals are detained and put through the {Court} system, where the offenders are removed from the community through {Imprisonment}. This results in a stable and safe environment, which aid support for {Community Development).

The role of {Community Leadership} in the system, particularly at the grassroots will result is huge savings in the economy, aiding economic growth. The {Community Leadership} collaborates with the {Employment & Justice Agencies}, translating into socio-economic progress {Community Development}

The Community Development Model

This model provides an understanding into the relationships and links between a range of variable units and fixed units, and how {Community Development} is supported.

As {Youth Alienation} rate increases, the {Crime} rate increases (both variables) demands police enforcement. {Police Enforcement} is a fixed variable as increase in police force is fixed over a period of time.

To increase efficiency, engages or collaborate with:

•{Community Leadership} (fixed and variable) – is fixed for a certain period, and becomes variable as youth criminal activities increases

•{Court} (variable) – as youth criminal activities increase, the court resources reman fixed. It then removes some offenders from the community and imprison them, creating peace and stability in the community

•{Educational Institutions} (variables) – as student retention increases, more institutions are needed.

Variables that are linked to the {Community Leadership} which include;

•{Youth Sports Clubs}

•{Employment & Justice Agencies}

•{Economic Preservation; and}

•{Educational Institutions}

Contribute/support {Community Development}. These are variables, as more youths are referred or engaged.

The {Community Leadership} and {Police Enforcement} collaborate, support and design community programs to reduce youth criminal activities, which could potentially reduce the justice system expenditure.

The relationship between these fixed and variable units create a sustainable Community Development.

The Community Development Model

Marshiah Mupinyuri

Model explanation:

This model is to simulate the youth development in the town of Bourke based on 2 factors, community development and the police force within 24 months.

In addition, the model also simulates the effectiveness of rehabilitation at community hub and detention center.

Bourke town refers to the town in the northwest area of New South Wales and it is the administrative center of the Bourke Shire local government area. The town is plagued with a high crime rate number; thus a justice reinvestment project was deployed in the area to reduce the crime rate of the town.

The youth population with a positive lifestyle refers to young people within the town who receive education, do not commit the crime, and help develop the town.

Youth population with negative lifestyle refer to young people who do not receive education and often commit crime or offender.

Assumption:

The model assumes that the youth population is from 15-24 years old.

In addition, the rate such as employment rate, high school/university attendance, and the crime rate is based on information that can be found in Census Data on Australia Bureau of Statistics websites.

Variables:

The police force variable is used to measure the effectiveness of the police force and the funding toward the police force. A higher police force will lead to a high level of imprisonment.

Community development is used to measure the effectiveness of the community toward the development of the youth population in Bourke town. A high level of community development will lead to a high number of young people with a positive lifestyle.

A community hub and detention center effectiveness are used to measure the success rate of a community hub and detention center at rehabilitating the youth population with a negative lifestyle. The success rate of the community hub is at 70%, while the detention center is at 85%.

Outcome:

The model is set so that if the police force is higher than community development then most of the youth population will lead toward a negative lifestyle and vice versa.

However, if the effectiveness of community hub and detention centres are high then the number of imprisonments will remain low.

References:

Australian Bureaus of Statistics, 2016. Retrieved at https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522

The impact of community development and police force on youth development on Bourke town

Lan Nguyen Hoang

Community Development Models