43324525 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - Youth Crime Cycle
The remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty crime among the town’s youth.
Part of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.
This complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can change this cycle.
While there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation
Simulation of this model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.
Total Youth Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.
This model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).
At Time Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.
- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.
i.e. not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs
- Community Engagement Programs = Number of Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.
Community Engagement Programs consist of multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events
- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing Petty Crimes.
- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in Juvenile Detention.
- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.
- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.
- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of Money being Invested into Community Development
i.e. 15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund
- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in Bourke
i.e. 15 = 15 Active Police Officers
- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)
i.e. 0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear to be corrupt)
- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to commit crimes.
Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5% percent.
0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.
Positive Influences at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for any reliable intervention.
- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.
Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.
5% of the juvenile population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to commit petty crimes.
- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel Alienated/have no sense of community.
Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.
Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.
Before taking into account those people that are in the Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be Alienated.
i.e. when Upstanding Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation = 90%
- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)
For every $1000 invested into Community Development Resource $, the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.
The rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50 children coming to Community Engagement Programs we have a percentage increase in Community Involvement rate.
- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom & Recklessness variable.
- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)
Flow rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.
Youth Alienation and Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.
Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.
Temptation flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home
- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)
Flow rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.
Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.
- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)
Flow rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.
Increased Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.
- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile Detention population by 4 months.
Assumption: The average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre Sentence.
- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.
Assumption: There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary of Police.
- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)
Flow rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the Community Development Resource $ variable.
Community Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.
For every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.
- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)
Flow rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and Further Negative Influence Rate.
Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.
Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further Negative Influences Flow of 25%.
- Inspired (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the Positive Influences at Home variable.
- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)
Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.
Assumption: There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious Upstanding Members of Bourke society.
- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)
Flow Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%
Assumption: Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation, boredom and recklessness.
EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES
Police Officers = 10
Community Development Resource $ = 5,000
Police Initiative Rate = 1
⮝ Increasing Community Development Resource $
- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn decreases Youth Alienation. Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.
- Increases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs.
- Increases Upstanding Citizen due to the increase in Community Engagement Programs.
⮟ Decreasing Community Development Resource $
- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn increases Youth Alienation. Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.
- Decreases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs .
- Decreases Upstanding Citizen due to the decrease in Community Engagement Programs.
⮝ Increasing Police Officers
- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
⮟ Decreasing Police Officers
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
⮝ Increasing Police Initiative
- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.
- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.
⮟ Decreasing Police Initiative
- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.
- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.
- Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.
Notice how Youth just constantly circulate between Home, Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged with the amount of children in Community Engagement and Upstanding Citizens stocks seem Negligible
- Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 30,000 , Police Officers to 1 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.
Notice that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding Citizens
- Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.
Notice that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any improvement in the situation.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44909209
EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime.
The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other stocks.
ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL
1. Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population.
2. Simulation value for community investment is 40%.
3. Simulation value for police officers is 450.
4. The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the
conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed
more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.
5. The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’ such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.
6. The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.
7. It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six
months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.
1. Youth population – percentage of youth residing in Bourke.
2. Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who have committed an offence.
3. Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a crime for youth.
4. Community engagement program – a government
expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.
1. Community investment – effectiveness of the community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.
2. Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the
adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%).
This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is
applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a
decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal
benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the
Law of Diminishing Returns).
HOW TO GET INTERESTING RESULTS
1. At 50% community investment, disengagement is higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%) compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100% community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.
2. At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together, on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.
Olivia Miu (44909209)
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)
This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).
This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.
Apprehended- Getting captured by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.
Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.
The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.
1) 3000 People living in Bourke
2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse
3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth
4) Crime- 600
5) Apprehended -
6) Community Group - 300
7) Positive life - 100
8) Jail - 480
Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.
High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.
For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Relationships between various groups in Bourke_Student ID 11640880
This model presumes that the overal youth population of the town Bourke is 1 000 people.
Lack of financial resources
Changes their mind
The level of these variables can be corrected.
Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke. By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.
About the modelThe model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented. However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.
The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.
The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.
Variables/relationshipsThe variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:
- TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
- Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.
What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.
Interesting parametersAs the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention). The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.For example: Set the sliders to these values:
- Policing: 25
- TAFE Funding: 26
- The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
- After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
- These periods are both represented by delays.
- No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
- The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.
ConclusionFrom the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44622554
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in Bourke
Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke
Petty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.
Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.
Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the police
Arrested- Adults getting caught by the police
Juvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by police
Jail- Adults locked up by the police
Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.
Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
Victoria Jakubowski 43300936
Bourke's Justice Reinvestment Options
Bourke consists of a community of 3000 people; 1000 being adults, and 2000 being youth.
This model presents the Youth and Adults from the Bourke and the estimated arrest rates for whether Bourke’s Justice Reinvestment program chooses to increase punishment for crime, or invest in prevention programs to help the community better themselves and avoid trouble. The overall aim is to reduce imprisonment.
Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Increased Punishment for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when there is an increase in punishment and more policing. Variables such as ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Youth’ and ‘Arrest rate for Prevention for Adults’ are integrated to show the arrest rates over time when preventative measures have been put in place. All variables are given an estimated rate, though the rate is not fixed and viewers are able to adjust the rates using the appropriate slider bars, as limited information has been provided at this given time in relation to the specified rates.
The slider bars for the youth have been given a range of -2000 to 2000 as the population of youth is 2000 and those are the limits. Same applies to the slider bars specified for the adults, though here the limit is from -1000 to 1000.
By setting parameter settings to a value lower than 0, you will start to see a decline in arrests. By setting the parameter over 0 you will see an increase.
Stocks have been colour coded to represent their lines shown in the simulated graph.
Bourke has a youth population under the age of 24 to be roughly 1000 people. For the sake of this experiment numbers have been slightly skewed to better reinforce various simulations. However, the information has been been skewed to the fact that there are going to be unrealistic results.
The variable which have sliders allowed are, Police Intervention, Drugs and Alcohol, Community Works, Activity Investment. While developing this model, through examination, it was found that these are the numbers that fluctuate the most in most scenarios, so why not keep it consists. Police presence is something that will always either increase or decrease depending on certain events which are scheduled to be on. The fluctuation of drugs and alcohol speaks for itself, as there is no way of knowing how much of either substance is readily available.
Community Workers, is set at 70, with the option of sliding it in which ever direction the user desires. Similarly, to police intervention, depending on events the level can significantly fluctuate. Activity Investment has a relationship with Community workers and Police Intervention. Increased volume in people results in increased investment.
Interesting SlidesAfter playing around here are some interesting variations you can make.--> Police Intervention: Max, Drugs and Alcohol: min, Community workers: Max, Activity Investment: Max. The worm here shows a perfect situation of almost complete harmony within the community. I believe an increase in Police presence, Community works and activity investment will ultimately deter crime and antisocial behaviour in Bourke. --> Do the opposite maxs and mins from the above test. With the increase in Drugs and Alcohol and minimisation of the other variables, we can see how volatile it makes the community. The worms for all stocks are aggressively up and down. --> i have gone to the liberty of creating a display for you(the Viewer) at crimes committed while drug use has been present, however the person has gone straight to rehab and not to Jail.
Assumptions1.The population of Bourke is 50002.The process of crime to Detention/Rehab, is the same for Youths and Adults.3. In the Youth and Adult Detention Stock, the youths are separated from adults4. Adults and youths can go straight to Rehab and not go to Jail.
Slide away and enjoy.-Ned Robinson
Bourke Youth Population
This model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke, in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other variables interact with each other. The model simulates the positives and negatives involved with being either socially engaged or socially disengaged. For example, community involvement and rehabilitation for positive factors to drug and alcohol abuse and unemployment for negative factors.
There are 3 key variables identified and outlined in the model. They are also the 3 sliders at the bottom.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Community Engagement Expenditure – this shows the impact of having community investment and programs in order to generate positive behavioural changes.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Police Expenditure – this shows the impact of police arresting the disengaged youth and getting involved to prevent further crime. This potentially results in rehabilitation.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Unemployment, Drugs & Alcohol Abuse – this is the strongest negative variance and shows the impact of how a high rate of unemployment, domestic violence and drugs and alcohol abuse can have on youth alienation.
By reducing the negative variables like unemployment and abuse, it decreases the crimes committed and hopefully police expenditure and increases the percentage of socially engaged youth. Additionally, by increasing the community expenditure, it may reduce the percentage of alienated disengaged youths, increasing the positive behavioural changes.
From the information and sites provided, Bourke’s population is 3,000 and about 1,000 (1/3) identify as Aboriginal. According to ABC’s report “just about all [youth] are aboriginal”. Thus, this model has set the youth population as 1,000 people. Youth has been defined as 10-24 years.
The model resembles the game snakes and ladders, one slip up and Bourke’s disengaged youth can find themselves back at the beginning where they are either at risk or back to committing crime. For instance, if there is no behavioural change once they make it to rehabilitation, whether convicted of their crime or not, they will
As can be seen from the model, it is a slippery slope once Bourke’s youth are disengaged and start to feel alienated, however it is possible to get back on track, whether though police expenditure and involvement, community investment and programs to assist with rehabilitation. Additionally, there is a risk that if an arrested youth is not convicted of the crime, there can be an increase of recidivism, however with the variables in place.
From the KMPG campaign results so far, the variables in place seem to be working and reducing the number of youth in juvenile detention, increase of drivers licences, increase of employment and re-entering into the community.
42103053 - Riki Gleeson
The state government has decided to spend money in the town, and the model represents the effects of the level of funding as well as the effects of how the funding is used.
The model can be useful for the state government to decide how much they should spend, and whether it should be spent on policing or sporting clubs and trade schools, while also accounting for the effectiveness of the program and deciding how strict the juvenile detention center should be.
The Model in Detail:
Good Children:The model assumes that all the children (Based on an estimated 1000 children) are good at the beginning. They very gradually become bored regardless of the level of social sports clubs, as not all children may be interesting in sports.
The funding towards sports clubs and the effectiveness of the programs determine the rate of boredom among the good children.
Bored Mischievous Children:As children get bored, they will cause mischief and varying degrees of crime.
The level of funding for sports and the effectiveness of the program will affect the level of social engagement that will pull children away from causing mischief, and become good children again.
At the same time the level of funding for policing will affect how many of the trouble making youths get caught and placed in juvenile detention.
Juvenile Detention: Once the children are in Juvenile detention, they must serve their time to be released.
The release rate reflects how well behaving inmates are released, and the strictness of the sentences applied to youths.
Once they are released, they are still considered bored and causing mischief until they reengaged with the community through social activities funded by the state government such as playing sports.
Adjustments to the Model:
Government Funding:The state government has decided to spend in Bourke to reduce the level of crime thought to be caused by boredom in teens. The slider can be adjusted from 0.1 to 100 to reflect the level of funding that the town should receive, where 100 is the maximum and 0.1 is very little funding.
Funding Ratio:The funding Ratio can slide from 0.1 to 0.9 (left to right). When the slider is at 0.9, 90% the funding goes to policing which is at the right of the diagram and 10% goes to sports clubs.
At 0.1, 90% of the funding goes to Sports clubs which is at the left of the diagram, and only 10% will go to more policing.
Release Rate:As part of solving the criminal mindset of youths in Bourke, the state government may decide to also be more lenient towards good behaving youths in detention centers by letting them out earlier to reduce the negative influence of other detainees, or simply shortening the time spent in general.
A higher release rate allows more youths to be released meaning a more lenient approach can be modelled.
Effectiveness of Program:The state government may choose to run various programs with various levels of effectiveness before resorting to diverting spending on policing.
The state government can model the consequences of ineffective programs as well as the benefits of a well run program.
An effectiveness of 1 is maximum effectiveness, while an effectiveness of 0 will result in no effect as result of spending.
Initial Values:Good Children: 1000Bored Mischievous Children: 0Juvenile Detention: 0
Government funding: 100Funding Ratio: 0.75Release Rate: 0.1Effectiveness of Program: 1
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke | 43674240
This model portrays the patterns in crime and the community development within the youth of Bourke. It demonstrates the affect of community and police can have on a community. The community is willing to invest into police and a community center to benefit the community. It is trying to reduce the crime rate of the youth due to boredom and their aim is to see the benefits of having a community club. Through the model you are able to see the benefit of an increase of community investment or police or both.
Description of Model
- The model begins of a population of 1000 youth in Bourke.
- 60% of the youth are criminals.
- The convicted youth depends on the conviction rate which is reflective of the police expenditure.
- The conviction rate is at 50% though with police involvement it is increased by 10%.
- 60% of convicted criminals are released without rehabilitation.
- The remainder of convicted criminals that are rehabilitated depends on the amount of community investment.
- 40% of the youth that attend the community club are 60% less likely to end up in rehabilitation.
- From 0-100
- Effective for community club use and decrease in crime rate
-There will always be the use of police in a city, though the police cannot have an uneven ratio to population.
-There will always be conviction though through the use of police try to be the minimal as possible.
-The population of youth is 1000.
-Only youth are commiting crime.
-There is no increase of individual risk.
-The use of community club will involve youth and decrease their crime rates.
Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW & Implications on Local Youth
A small country town in NSW Australia, Bourke records very high youth crime rates and jail population, when compared to the remainder of the country. To tackle the specific causes for such high rates, a Justice Reinvestment Program has been designed, involving all actors of the local community (Police, Education, Local Elders, Community Members) and focusing on prevention rather than repression.
This simple model aims at depicting patterns in crime and redemption behaviour; and how local actions, investments and resources can impact Bourke youth, positively or negatively. Multiple variables can be manipulated to assess results and outcomes.
- Youth Population – total youth population in the town of Bourke
- Disengaged Youth – youth showing a Negative Behaviour. They have either left school, are affected by drug and/or alcohol consumption, and/or domestic violence. They need to be taken care of, otherwise they might engage in offences
- Problem Youth – youth having committed an offence
- Court Appearance – Problem Youth having been arrested, thanks to local police. Stock is affected by Police Budget variable
- Jailed – youth having been convicted and sent to prison
- Youth in Community Programs – youth population either out of prison and repenting; or Problem Youth enrolling in Community Activity
- Engaged Youth – youth showing a Positive Behaviour. The final objective of this Justice Reinvestment program
- School Attendance – a critical factor to re-engage Disengaged Youth
- Crime Rate – percentage of Disengaged Youth committing offences
- Police Budget – affects number of Problem Youth being brought to justice. Can be manipulated between 0 (absolutely no police in Bourke) to 100 (local police reinforcement and 24/7 surveillance), both being theoretical options
- Reoffending Rate – percentage of Youth committing offences again, after their release from Jail
- Community Programs Funding – amount spent on various community programs, such as training and apprenticeship; counselling; preventive police home visits; learner driver classes; sports; and cultural connections program. Funding impacts 3 types of Youth:
- Disengaged Youth joining back community
- Problem Youth entering Community Programs
- Youth repenting after being released from Jail, and entering Community Programs
- Bourke Youth Population = 1.000
- Crime rate in Disengaged Youth = 70%
- Reoffending Rate = 30%
- Police Budget = 40
- Community Programs Funding = 60
There is no silver bullet solution to the youth crime problem in Bourke NSW. However, with the suggested combination of Police Budget and Community Program Funding, positive results appear from Year 3 onwards: even with the occasional spike of reoffenders and subsequent Problem Youth, overall Engaged Youth population increases, reaching 70% of total Youth Population on Year 4 and increasing.
Community Programs Funding has the biggest impact towards the program objective, as it helps creating positive reinforcement and life opportunities for Bourke youth at different disengagement stages.
44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW
Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.
This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.
For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).
There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.
All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.
The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).
Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.
Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.
Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.
This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.
MKT563 Ass 4 - Complex systems - Justice Reinvestment Project in the town of Bourke
The town of Bourke is in north-west New South Wales and became the first pilot site to implement an Aboriginal-let model of justice reinvestment in 2013, known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. The project aimed to demonstrate that sustainable outcomes can be achieved by redirecting funding to the underlying causes of youth crime.
This complex systems model depicts the relationships between different players and helps simulate youth crime patterns when influenced by funded community engagement activities, fluctuating levels of alienation, and police funding over a period of 2 years. The funding of community engagement activities aims to increase youth participation and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.
75% of Bourke’s youth are disengaged from society.
25% of Bourke’s youth are engaged with society.
50% of Bourke’s engaged youth are not interested in the community activities.
60% of disengaged youth are alienated.
Police expenditure: 30
Community engagement expenditure: 60
Youth of Bourke
Total youth population in Bourke. We are assuming there are 500 youths susceptible to committing crime within Bourke.
Community programs aimed at youths which could include sports, arts and cultural programs, counselling, support groups, learner driving school, school holiday programs and health and development checks.
Youths who are not engaged in positive community activities and are at risk of committing criminal activities. These youths may be affected by domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol or abuse.
Youths who are engaged in society in a positive way. The aim of this program is to have all youths positively engaged in Bourke’s community.
Youths who have committed a criminal offence.
Youths who are found guilty of a criminal offence and are now in prison or detention.
Youths who have left prison/detention and are now attending rehabilitation programs. This rehabilitation should decrease the likelihood of youths re-offending.
Funding for police presence to decrease the number of youths participating in criminal activities and whether they are convicted and imprisoned. If youths are imprisoned, police expenditure can also help move them towards rehabilitation to lessen the chance of re-offence.
Community engagement expenditure
Funding of community activities aimed at the youth of Bourke. These activities are designed to positively impact the lives of youth and lessen the chance of alienation and disengagement from the community.
Contributing factors to alienation of youths in Bourke include domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol, abuse, homelessness, and lack of education.
The rate at which Bourke’s youth attend school or vocational education and training courses (VET) to further their education and increase their engagement in the community.
This complex model indicates the impact of only a few variables, yet there are many more that can be considered. However, this model shows that over a period of 2 years, the combination of community engagement funding, police funding and education can improve the lives of Bourke’s susceptible youth. The most significant impact is made by the community engagement funding. If this funding is decreased, the rate of engaged youth decreases, and the rate of disengaged youth does not improve.
Assignment 3 44906064
There are 6 stocks and 2 variables.
The stocks are arranged to represent the different options for the youth in Bourke. Their options are; don't commit a crime; do commit a crime and risk being convicted; or take part in various community development/engagement programs available.
The 2 variables are Police and Community Development Fund, both are adjustable via the sliders to the right hand side, and represent 2 of the major forces acting on the youth's choices.
The aim of the model is to emphasize the overall importance of community development/engagement programs for youths in Bourke.
To see the impact these programs can have adjust the sliders:
. 100 Police and 0.1 Community Funds - This will show the negative effect of severe law enforcement as a larger number of youths end up in juvenile detention.
. 100 Police and 100 Community Development Funds - This will show the improvement in the community compared to the last suggestion as more youths are in the programs helping them rather than juvenile detention.
. 10 Police and 200 Community Development Funds - This will show that almost all youths end up in the programs helping them and very few in juvenile detention. This further illustrated the point made before about the importance of these programs in Bourke.
Crime, Policing and Community Programs involving Youths in Bourke
Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke
This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.
75% of youth are alienated
75% of alienated youth participate in crime
60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours
85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.
90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes
Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.
Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation.
Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.
Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.
Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.
The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.
When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.
43692273 - Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW
This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.
General Population of BourkeThis is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.
These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.
When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.
Community Involvement Program Participants
These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.
Size of Police Force
The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.
Funding for Community Programs
This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.
Description and Assumptions:
This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.
Based on statistics gathered from this document:http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf
Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.
This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.
The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.
Notable Data Points
As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.
An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.
44763514 Assignment 3 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
The state government is implementing a new measure to prevent further crime committed by installing community programs such as sporting clubs, and classes to develop relationships among police and the community.
Many youth were going from home to juvenile detention and back, and many adults were on a similar roundabout between the community and jail.
Community development programs hopefully will reduce the levels of domestic violence among adults, and petty crime among the town’s youth.
Model ExplanationFirstly, you notice Adult and Youth population is separated and assumed that 50% of adults will commit crime whereas 20% in youth. A certain percentage is given for the number that is guilty and not guilty. Guilty, will receive certain punishment according to their age category and after their sentence is served, they go back to town.
Policing Expenditures shows how many officers are needed to reduce the amount of crime. Officers are called when a crime/mischief is committed, whether they're caught or not and found guilty or not.
StocksAdult Population: Adults in Bourke
Youth Population: Teenagers in Bourke
Crime: Domestic Violence/Homicide
Mischief: Petty Crimes
Jail: If Guilty, adults are sent to jail
Juvenile Detention: If guilty, youth are sent to detention
Community Programs: Sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships among police and “at risk” households, and teaching trade-skills
AssumptionsAdult Population: 2100
Youth Population: 900
Adult Crimes: 50%
Youth Mischief: 20%
The aim of this model is to illustrate the affects of implementing change i.e. policing/government aid within a community
The increase of Government Aid and Policing Expenditures decreases the crime performed in the community.
We can see a positive outcome from this and can take into account the affects of proper execution by the state government
the Model of Young community member in Bourke -11678182 Ziwei Zhang
the level of education and punishment can affect the number of criminals
44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke
The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.
Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).
Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.
Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.
Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.
Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.
It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.
Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.
Relationship between Youth Alienation, Police and Community Development in Bourke
This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.
StocksYouth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modellingDisengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour
Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crimeEarly Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.
Data of Note- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).
- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught
- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime
While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.