Bourke | Insight Maker

AKHIL ARYA - 44680198

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bourke is town with a population of 5000 people, that has limited offered to keep its community occupied. This has led to a lot of residents to result to mischief and violence, however, the town has had enough and decided that a change is required. Investment in both more policing and community activities is said to provide a drastic improvement in the quality of living in the suburb.

The complex system designed here details the improvements that can be made and can assist in the decision making of whether more money should be invested into policing or community activities.

Assumptions:

- The population of Bourke remains 5000 for the entirety of this model (for simplicity). NO births or deaths. NO moving in or out.

- There will be a delay rate for personal convicted after they leave jail and rehab.

- 30% of offenders are released directly back to the community, while the remaining 70% will be transferred to rehab for rehabilitation.

- All jail sentences are constant at 6 months (for simplicity)

Variables

- Police: slider allows us to adjust the amount of policing involved in the town so we can observe the effect of changing police numbers corresponding to amount of crime committed. Range: 5 – 100.

- Drugs and Alcohol: contribute to increase violence and crime being committed, therefore, maybe regulating the number of drugs and amount of alcohol that both minors and adults consume by police officers. Then hopefully crime can be reduced and even prevented. Range: 0 -20.

- Community investment: this slider allows us to alter the amount of community investment that Bourke will invest in. Range: 0 – 1.

- Sporting Investment: Sporting showed great results and improvements to the quality of living in Bourke. Keeping youths and adults occupied in rugby teams is a great time pass and great way to let off some steam for a lot of people. The slider allows us to observe the effect of these investments on the quality of living in Bourke. Range: 0 – 1.

Interesting Results:

Police Slider: 10

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the sliders set at these numbers, we can observe a constant cycle between residents altering from jail and home, as the crime commit remains relatively constant (very slow descent).

Police Slider: 100

Drugs and Alcohol Slider: 17

Community Investment: 0

Sporting Investment: 0

With the police maxed out, the crime rate still remains relatively constant, will slight decrease but it being so small I can be considered insignificant. From this we can propose that without alternate activities for the residents of Bourke to get involved in, reforming and making a change to the suburb will be a very difficult. Investment into just policing can also be seen as not the best investment of money.

Bourke Assignment 3 - MGMT220

Akhil Arya

Aim The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over

Aim

The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.

Assumptions

This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.

Variables

Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.

Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.

Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.

Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted

Patterns

When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.

Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.

Suggestions

Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)

The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.

The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.

A combination of these would be ideal.

44839960 Policing and Community Development in Bourke

Timothy Tsang

Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.

Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.

Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle

Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend

Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.

Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.

THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.

Duncan Hill

7

Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:

Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:

Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation:

Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!

- Sam

Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke

JAMES SAVAGE

Etienne Crouche-McDonald's Youth Alienation in Bourke Model

Assignment #3: Complex Systems

About the Model

The purpose of this model is to show how police and community spending effect engagement levels and crime for the youth within Bourke and how it affects their adult life.

Stocks

Bourke Youth

The initial population of the youth within Bourke.

The latest population figures show Bourke has a poulation of close to 3000, with 35% of them being below 24yrs old, so for this model i have assumed an initial youth population of 1000.

All other variables have an initial value of 0.

Engaged Youth

Youth within Bourke who are engaged with the community and at a low risk of commiting crime.

Alienated Youth

Youth within the community who feel alienated and therefore at a higher risk of commiting crime.

Jailed Youth

Youth who have been incarcerated.

Released Youth

Those who have been released from jail.

Engaged Adults

Those who have grown up to become adults who are at a low risk of commiting crime.

Disengaged Adults

Those who have grown up to become adults at a high risk of commiting crime.

Variables

Police Spending

This is how much funding the police department is recieving. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.

Its affect on Jailed Youth and Released Youth becomes stronger as the number of Jailed Youth increases.

Community Spending

This is how much funding is going into community programs. The user is able to adjust this with the slider below.

Its effect on Engaged Youth becomes stronger as the number of Engaged Youth increases.

Births

This is the rate of births which i have assumed to be 100 per year. This is fixed so there is a constant flow into Bourke Youth.

Ageing

This is the rate at which the youth ages out of the youth category. I have set this as a constant.

- 10% of Engaged youth age out every year.

- 5% of Alienated and Jailed youth age out every year.

Interesting Results

1. Set both sliders to 1 and it will more disengaged adults than engaged.

2. Set both sliders to 0.5 and it will show more engaged adults than disengaged

Etienne Crouche-McDonald - 44983921 - Youth Alienation in Bourke

Etienne Crouche-McDonald

INTRODUCTION

This model simulates the effect of Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and drugs).

This model can be used by community member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community. The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community.

STOCKS-

Youth- The adolescents living in Bourke

Adult- The adults living in Bourke

Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.

Apprehended- Getting captured by the police

Community Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.

Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.

VARIABLE-

Community Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult and Youth from the community.

The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.

ASSUMPTION-

1) 3000 People living in Bourke

2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse

3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth

4) Crime- 600

5) Apprehended -

6) Community Group - 300

7) Positive life - 100

8) Jail - 480

SUGGESTED SETTING

Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.

High Rate of Engagement- An increase in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

CONCLUSION

A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke.The policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.

For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke- Assignment 3 (44198949)

Umang Snehi

Exploration of Funding Distribution within Bourke, NSW

This Insight provides a vision of the current crime rate of Bourke and the impact that increases in funding in both community involvement and policing will have. It models this data across 24 months.

Stocks:

General Population of Bourke

This is the general population of Bourke, set by default at the current population of 3000.

Criminals

These are citizens that have been turned to crime due to a lack of community programs and police presence.

Incarcerated Criminals

When a criminal is found to be guilty they are placed in jail for a duration of time before being returned to the general population.

Community Involvement Program Participants

These are members of the public who are engaged with community programs.

Variables:

Size of Police Force

The number of police force members present in Bourke. The value is between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Funding for Community Programs

This represents the amount of funding committed to community programs. The value is set between 0-1 and represents no funding against full funding.

Description and Assumptions:

This model assumes that even with complete police funding there will never be a complete eradication of crime within Bourke.

Based on statistics gathered from this document:

http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/tandi_pdf/tandi020.pdf

Most crimes tend to carry with them a jail time of a year or less. As such, this model averages the amount of time spent incarcerated is 9 months.

This model assumes that the funding for these services will remain consistent across the entire period of time.

The model assumes that community programs will likely last 12 months.

Notable Data Points

As can be seen in the model, an increase in police funding causes an increase in criminals. There is a critical point where an increase in police presence leads to higher incarceration. Prior to this point, there is more crime, but fewer arrests.

An increase in social programs decreases crime overall.

43692273 - Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW

Benjamin Muir

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Laksh Taneja

Model Explanation

This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime.

The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.

Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).

Assumptions

Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.

Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.

Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.

Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.

It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.

Interesting Results

Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework Model for Bourke

Josh Stevens

Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

Clone of Youth Crime In Bourke NSW

Bryce Hercok

BACKGROUND

The remote north-western town of Bourke currently faces high incidences of petty crime among the town’s youth.

Part of the problem stems from the alienation and lack of recreational activities the youth face from being a small isolated town, which has meant that the threat of being sent to Juvenile Detention isn't acting as much of a deterrent.

This complex systems model aims to show how investing in different variables can change this cycle.

While there are numerous underlying factors that perpetrate the cycle of Bourke youth being locked up, this model has a main focus on Youth Alienation

MODEL EXPLAINED

Simulation of this model shows results over 3 years with Time Units in steps of 1 Month.

Total Youth Population of Bourke stays static at 1200 over the 3 years.

This model only looks as Individuals committing petty crimes as opposed to groups of Youth getting together to commit petty crime (we are not considering peer pressure as a factor of petty crime rates).

At Time Point 0, all 1200 of Bourke Youth are in the Stock Home, and all other stocks are empty. Youth flow out from Home to other stocks from Time Point 1.

STOCKS

- Home = Number of Bourke youth at 'Home'.

i.e. not committing crimes but not taking part in Community Engagement Programs

- Community Engagement Programs = Number of Bourke Youth taking part in Bourke's Community Engagement Programs.

Community Engagement Programs consist of multiple things such as Sporting Clubs and Indigenous Community Events

- Petty Crime = Number of Bourke Youth committing Petty Crimes.

- Juvenile Detention = Number of Bourke Youth in Juvenile Detention.

- Discharged = Number of Bourke Youth in state of being Discharged from Juvenile Detention.

- Upstanding Citizen = Number of Bourke Youth that are Upstanding members of the Bourke Community.

ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Community Development Resource $ = Amount of Money being Invested into Community Development

i.e. 15000 = $15000 into Community Development Fund

- Police Officers = Number of Police Officer in Bourke

i.e. 15 = 15 Active Police Officers

- Police Initiative Rate = % Amount of Investment Police put into active Policing. (AKA Police efficiency)

i.e. 0.1 = 10% effectiveness (police appear to be corrupt)

UN-ADJUSTABLE VARIABLES

- Positive Influences at Home = % of Bourke Youth that have strong enough Positive Social Influences at Home to not want to commit crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a constant 0.5% percent.

Assumptions:

0.5% of the juvenile population of Bourke already have strong positive social influences at home that have them highly unlikely to want to commit petty crimes.

Positive Influences at Home is a fixed variable as the factors affecting this % are too complex for any reliable intervention.

- Boredom & Recklessness = % of Bourke Youth that are Bored and Reckless enough to want to commit crimes.

Boredom and Recklessness is a constant 5%.

Assumptions:

5% of the juvenile population of Bourke is always going to be bored/reckless enough to want to commit petty crimes.

DYNAMIC VARIABLES

- Youth Alienation = % of Bourke Youth that feel Alienated/have no sense of community.

Youth Alienation is a dynamic percentage.

Assumptions:

Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen decreases Alienation. Everyone who partakes in the community engagement programs is unalienated. All Upstanding Citizens are unalienated.

Before taking into account those people that are in the Community Development Program and Upstanding Citizen stocks we assume that 90% of the Bourke youth population to be Alienated.

i.e. when Upstanding Citizen and Community Engagement Programs are both empty, Youth Alienation = 90%

FLOWS

- Community Involvement (Dynamic Rate)

For every $1000 invested into Community Development Resource $, the rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs increases by 2%.

The rate of flow from Home to Community Engagement Programs also is dependent on the attendance of youth to Community Program itself (word of mouth advertising). For every 50 children coming to Community Engagement Programs we have a percentage increase in Community Involvement rate.

- Lack of Interest (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Petty Crime is simply the % rate of the Boredom & Recklessness variable.

- Temptation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Petty Crime is dependent on the 4 Variables of Youth Alienation, Boredom & Recklessness, Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Youth Alienation and Boredom & Recklessness increase Temptation Flow.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate decrease Temptation Flow.

Temptation flow is also reduced by the 0.5% Positive Influences at Home

- Conviction (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime to Juvenile Detention is dependent on the 2 variables Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate.

Police Officers and Police Initiative Rate increase Conviction Flow.

- Not Caught (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Petty Crime back to Home is dependent on the Conviction Flow Rate.

Increased Conviction Flow is directly proportional to a Decrease in the Not Caught Flow.

- Served Sentence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Juvenile Detention to Discharged is just a delay of Juvenile Detention population by 4 months.

Assumption: The average Petty Crime Conviction results in a 4 month Juvenile Detention Centre Sentence.

- Further Negative Influence (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Petty Crime is a constant 25%.

Assumption: There is a constant 25% of Youth that having been convicted once are actually more likely to commit petty crimes (for various reasons) and are no longer wary of Police.

- Active Rehabilitation (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharged to Community Engagement Programs is dependent on the Community Development Resource $ variable.

Community Development Resource $ encourage Discharged Youth to want to change their ways.

For every $2000 invested into Community Development Resource $'s Active Rehabilitation Rate increase a percent.

- Unchanged (Dynamic Rate)

Flow rate from Discharge to Home is dependent on Active Rehabilitation Rate and Further Negative Influence Rate.

Increased Active Rehabilitation Flow is directly proportional to decrease in the Unchanged Flow.

Unchanged Flow is also reduced by the Further Negative Influences Flow of 25%.

- Inspired (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Home to Upstanding Citizen is simply the percentage rate of the Positive Influences at Home variable.

- Self Improvement (Constant Rate)

Flow rate from Community Engagement Programs to Upstanding Citizen is a constant 5%.

Assumption: There is a constant 5% of Youth that have been partaking in the Community Engagement Programs who have been so well received that they are conscientious Upstanding Members of Bourke society.

- Hits Hard Times (Constant Rate)

Flow Rate from Upstanding Citizen to Home is a constant 1%

Assumption: Upstanding Citizens are not infallible and there are some circumstances which lead to Upstanding Citizens suddenly being susceptible to the alienation, boredom and recklessness.

EFFECT OF CHANGING VARIABLES

Base Settings:

Police Officers = 10

Community Development Resource $ = 5,000

Police Initiative Rate = 1

⮝ Increasing Community Development Resource $

- Increases Community Involvement Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn decreases Youth Alienation. Decrease in Youth Alienation, decreases Temptation Flow.

- Increases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore increasing Community Engagement Programs.

- Increases Upstanding Citizen due to the increase in Community Engagement Programs.

⮟ Decreasing Community Development Resource $

- Decreases Community Involvement Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs, which in turn increases Youth Alienation. Increase in Youth Alienation, increases Temptation Flow.

- Decreases Active Rehabilitation Flow, therefore decreasing Community Engagement Programs .

- Decreases Upstanding Citizen due to the decrease in Community Engagement Programs.

⮝ Increasing Police Officers

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Officers

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

⮝ Increasing Police Initiative

- Decreases Temptation Flow therefore decreasing Petty Crime.

- Increases Conviction Flow therefore increasing Juvenile Detention.

⮟ Decreasing Police Initiative

- Increases Temptation Flow therefore increasing Petty Crime.

- Decreases Conviction Flow therefore decreasing Juvenile Detention.

INTERESTING POINTS

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice how Youth just constantly circulate between Home, Petty Crime, Juvenile Detention and Discharged with the amount of children in Community Engagement and Upstanding Citizens stocks seem Negligible

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 30,000 , Police Officers to 1 and Police Initiative Rate to 1.

Notice that while we have a lot of Petty Crime going unpunished we have a significant proportion of the Bourke Youth in Community Engagement Programs and becoming Upstanding Citizens

Try setting Community Development Resource $ to 0 , Police Officers to 30 and Police Initiative Rate to 0.1.

Notice that the situation in Bourke looks very bleak, we have the majority of the youth population committing crimes and even though there's never really any improvement in the situation.

43324525 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - Youth Crime Cycle

Desnica Kumar

Assessment 4, MKT563 201930

Danielle Skerrett
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University

About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial processes.

Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:

Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*: 669 or 21%

*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.

Results of reinvestment program:

38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories

31% increase in year 12 student retention rates

27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles

Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33%

References:

Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522

KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story. Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A., (2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Assessment 4 - Effect of Community Reinvestment on Bourke's Youth Population

Danielle Skerrett

Bourke is a remote town in NSW with a population of 2634 people. In 2013 crime figures from Bourke showed the highest assault, break-ins and car theft rates in NSW with crime spikes mostly occurring during nights and school holidays. Over the past five years, the Aboriginal Community has come together to trial a model for change, called Just Reinvest.

This model illustrates the relationship between Community Factors (which includes social disadvantage, economic issues, family trauma) on Disengaged Youth, Crime and the impact of the Just Reinvest Program. This model particularly illustrates the complexity of factors on outcomes and how factors are interrelated making crime a wicked problem that is not easily viewed in isolation from the socio-economic and social causes.

Stocks

Youth in Burke is set based on Australian Bureau of Statistics levels but is easily modified to track population changes on modelling

Disengaged Youth are those with problematic behaviour

Crime Levels are those Disengaged Youth who go on to commit a crime

Early Intervention Programs are those run through Just Reinvest as part of the community program - the quantity of these can be adjusted.

Data of Note

- Economic Impact is five times cost of running the program

- Justice Impacts are roughly 66% and Non-Justice Impacts make up the remaining 33%.

Assumptions
While the UN defines "Youth" as 15 - 24 year olds, the KPMG report outlines programs for 10 - 24 year olds therefore in the context of Bourke the 10 - 24 year old age bracket is considered "Youths". This has been rounded to 700 people (ABS 2016 Census).

- It is estmated 70% of Bourke Youths will have problematic behaviour with 50% of those going on to commit a crime and be caught

- Cost of Early Intervention Youth Program is estimated at $100 per person per crime

Conclusion

While this model shows the impacts and benefits of additional funding on early intervention programs and the flow on affects this has on crime, it does not take into account the underlying cultural and social disadvantage issues that are often motivators for crime nor does this model take into account issues such as cultural prejudice and bias, over-policing or additional early intervention methods.

Relationship between Youth Alienation, Police and Community Development in Bourke

Lauren Phillips

MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099)

Introduction

Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people.

Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.

In 2013, the township of Bourke implemented the first pilot program for justice reinvestment, with Aboriginal leadership. The program is known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

Youth development

Reform to youth development and an increase in participation-based programs allowed for an increase in youth involvement within the community. Programs such as the School Holiday program or the 8 to 18-year-old working group helped to contribute towards a positive shift in youth inclusion and reduce alienation such as high school absenteeism, high school non graduate rate and an increase in TAFE/VET enrolments (and subsequent completions).

Police and Legal System

Through a series of initiatives aimed at Adult Empowerment, a decrease in bail breaches saw a 21% reduction YOY, as well as a 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents. The initiatives included the Role of Men working group, Early Childhood and Parenting work group and Aboriginal employment prosperity strategy. There was a 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a top criminal offence YOY from 2016 to 2017.

Community development

As of 2020, the ABC reported that North-Western NSW children are still at a disadvantage with some of the state’s highest percentages for lack of internet access, with Bourke reporting 30.1% of children still do not have internet access at home.

One of the community (and youth) initiatives implemented was the Birrang Learner Driver Program. The program saw an 83% increase in successful test completions YOY with 2016.

Initial parameters

- Internet access = 0.625

- Licence success rate = 0.83

- High school students = 160

- High school attendance rate = 0.74

- TAFE completion rate = 0.84

- Reoffence rate = 0.695

- Crime = 239 (arrests by charged rate)

- Charged = 0.38

- Breach rate = 0.27

- Youths = 302

- Arrests = 91

- Aboriginal background = 0.60

Variables (sliders)

Internet access

- Licence success rate

- High school students

- High school attendance rate

- TAFE completion rate

- Reoffence rate

- Crime

- Charged

- Breach rate

Assumptions

- Bourke has 31.5% aboriginal population.

- TAFE enrolments are governed by successful high school graduates.

- 3.3% of juveniles under 18 attend technical and further education

- There are 160 high school students – 60% have an Aboriginal background

- The attendance rate for high school students is 74%

- It would stand to reason that the absentee rate is 100 – 74 = initial value is 26%

- The simulation has been set to run for 5 years

- There are 302 youths aged between 10 and 19 years old

- 15-19 year olds make up for 4.6% of the population in Bourke (121).

- Licences achieved had an 83% increase YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 27% reduction in juvenile bail breaches YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a “top 5 offence” (91 arrests)

References

Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Data by region. Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=lga&rgn=11150

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG. (2018, November). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

McCutcheon, J. (2020, August 27). Internet at home not available to 26pc of children living in remote New South Wales. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-28/internet-access-for-students-in-the-bush-unequal-to-city-kids/12601120

MKT563 - Assignment 4

Jodi Thornton

An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke.

The model

This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.

Assumptions:

75% of youth are alienated

75% of alienated youth participate in crime

60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours

85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.

90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes

Variables:

Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.

Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation.

Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.

Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.

Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.

Conclusion:

The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.

When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.

Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke

Kathryn Greensill

EFFECTS OF POLICING AND COMMUNITY INVESTMENT ON ADOLESCENTS IN BOURKE

BACKGROUND
The model depicts the community of Bourke, analysing the implications of varying community investment and law enforcement expenditure on crime patterns. In particular, it focuses on youth crime.

The town's initially high crime rates is mostly attributable to its limited activities and remote location. Ultimately, the aim of this model is to show how a manipulation of variables can alter youth crime and other stocks.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE MODEL

1. Bourke has a population of 3,000 - 1,200 (40%) which make up the youth population, and the remaining 1,800 (60%) is the adult population.

2. Simulation value for community investment is 40%.

3. Simulation value for police officers is 450.

4. The reconviction rate (70%) is assumed to be higher than the conviction rate (60%). This is because we assume that law enforcement will be imposed more strictly to those who have already committed a crime at least once.

5. The ‘Engaged’ rate is assumed to be 80%. Given the lesser presence of youth (1,200) in comparison to adults (1,800), it is more likely that the youth population will be required to engage in ‘Community Engagement Programs’ such as sporting clubs or trade-skills.

6. The ‘Improved Youth’ rate is 80%. This is assumed to be high given the nature of the target study. In short, the youth population will be easier to improve, as opposed to if we were analysing adults.

7. It is assumed that, if convicted, juvenile detention time is six months due to the ‘petty’ nature of youth crimes.

STOCKS

1. Youth population – percentage of youth residing in Bourke.

2. Youth crime – number of people out of the youth population who have committed an offence.

3. Juvenile detention – consequence of committing a crime for youth.

4. Community engagement program – a government expenditure reform that involves providing support to the disadvantaged.

VARIABLES

1. Community investment – effectiveness of the community engagement program implemented by government, (initial simulation value 40, or 40%). This has been applied on a linear basis to flows applicable to ‘Community Engagement Programs’.

2. Police officers – number between 1-1800 out of the adult population who are police officers (initial simulation value 450, or 25%). This value is linked with ‘Law Enforcement’, to which Law Enforcement is applied to Conviction Rates. Law Enforcement is assumed to increase at a decreasing rate due to strong beliefs that there are decreasing marginal benefits in increasing the absolute number of police officers (according to the Law of Diminishing Returns).

HOW TO GET INTERESTING RESULTS

1. At 50% community investment, disengagement is higher than improved youth throughout the study time period. This is interesting because there is a significantly higher amount of ‘Improved Youth’ (80%) compared to ‘Disengaged’ (20%). For that reason, it is surprising that there are more disengaged than improved adolescents in Bourke. However, at 100% community investment, ‘Improved Youth’ outweighs ‘Disengaged’ adolescents.

2. At 50% Police capacity (900 Police Officers), the conviction and reconviction rates are higher than adolescents not being convicted. ‘Convicted’ and ‘Not Convicted’ tend to move more closely together, on an absolute basis, compared to ‘Reconvicted’ and ‘Not Reconvicted’.

Olivia Miu (44909209)

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - 44909209

Olivia Miu

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Andrew Sohn

Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW & Implications on Local Youth

Background

A small country town in NSW Australia, Bourke records very high youth crime rates and jail population, when compared to the remainder of the country. To tackle the specific causes for such high rates, a Justice Reinvestment Program has been designed, involving all actors of the local community (Police, Education, Local Elders, Community Members) and focusing on prevention rather than repression.

Model Explanation

This simple model aims at depicting patterns in crime and redemption behaviour; and how local actions, investments and resources can impact Bourke youth, positively or negatively. Multiple variables can be manipulated to assess results and outcomes.

Stocks

Youth Population – total youth population in the town of Bourke
Disengaged Youth – youth showing a Negative Behaviour. They have either left school, are affected by drug and/or alcohol consumption, and/or domestic violence. They need to be taken care of, otherwise they might engage in offences
Problem Youth – youth having committed an offence
Court Appearance – Problem Youth having been arrested, thanks to local police. Stock is affected by Police Budget variable
Jailed – youth having been convicted and sent to prison
Youth in Community Programs – youth population either out of prison and repenting; or Problem Youth enrolling in Community Activity
Engaged Youth – youth showing a Positive Behaviour. The final objective of this Justice Reinvestment program

Variables

School Attendance – a critical factor to re-engage Disengaged Youth
Crime Rate – percentage of Disengaged Youth committing offences
Police Budget – affects number of Problem Youth being brought to justice. Can be manipulated between 0 (absolutely no police in Bourke) to 100 (local police reinforcement and 24/7 surveillance), both being theoretical options
Reoffending Rate – percentage of Youth committing offences again, after their release from Jail
Community Programs Funding – amount spent on various community programs, such as training and apprenticeship; counselling; preventive police home visits; learner driver classes; sports; and cultural connections program. Funding impacts 3 types of Youth:

Disengaged Youth joining back community
Problem Youth entering Community Programs
Youth repenting after being released from Jail, and entering Community Programs

Assumptions

Bourke Youth Population = 1.000

Below coefficients and initial values were arbitrarily chosen but can be modified using sliders, to estimate influence and impact:

Crime rate in Disengaged Youth = 70%
Reoffending Rate = 30%
Police Budget = 40
Community Programs Funding = 60

Conclusions

There is no silver bullet solution to the youth crime problem in Bourke NSW. However, with the suggested combination of Police Budget and Community Program Funding, positive results appear from Year 3 onwards: even with the occasional spike of reoffenders and subsequent Problem Youth, overall Engaged Youth population increases, reaching 70% of total Youth Population on Year 4 and increasing.

Community Programs Funding has the biggest impact towards the program objective, as it helps creating positive reinforcement and life opportunities for Bourke youth at different disengagement stages.

Justice Reinvestment Program in Bourke NSW & Implications on Local Youth

Bernard Somja

Assignment 3: Complex Systems

Jason Nguyen 43711448

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Insight maker was used to model the effects that community development (in the form of TAFE Funding) and extra policing had on the petty crime and juvenile detention rates for the youth of Bourke.

By examining trends in certain relationships associated with the youth of Bourke (i.e. trade skill effectiveness vs. crime rates), we can assume that they parallel with adult community development programs should they be implemented.

About the model

The model works with the youth of Bourke having temptation to commit petty crime (i.e. stealing, assault), since there is not much to do in the town. The amount of crime committed is largely influenced by the amount of TAFE funding and policing implemented.

However, not all youth who commit crime are caught. Those who are caught are sent to juvenile detention, where they serve 6 months (not representative of all crimes, but is the average). A delay represents the 6 months in juvenile detention.

The justice reinvestment plan in Bourke will focus on implementing trade skills via TAFE that the youth can partake in. It is assumed that the more youth that undertake a trade skill, the less crime that will be committed in Bourke. There is a 6 month period where the youth become satisfied with learning the trade skill (represented as a delay), and crime is reduced.

The simulation presents results on 4 types of relationships and their trends. They consist of the default view, trade skill effectiveness on juvenile detention, trade skill effectiveness on crime, and policing vs. caught and not caught rates.

Variables/relationships

The variables are shown in yellow, and relationships are shown as arrows. Variables consist of:

TAFE Funding: As TAFE Funding increases, the amount of youth that undertake a trade skill increases, and crime rates decrease conversely.
Policing: As policing increases, the amount of youth committing crime decreases, while the amount of youth that are caught committing crime and sent to juvenile detention increases.

What is important to note is that any changes to the fixed variables/relationships in this model will cause incorrect simulation of the model for the user. This is because the variables/relationships relate directly to the information produced.

Interesting parameters

As the user increases the values in the sliders, we see a trend of youth committing less crime (which also means less in juvenile detention).

The TAFE funding variable seems to have a greater impact on decreasing crime rates rather than the policing variable.

For example: Set the sliders to these values:

Policing: 25
TAFE Funding: 26

Look at the trade skills vs. juvenile detention simulation. We can see crime rates rise when trade skills aren't largely funded. Then, increase TAFE Funding to 75. Notice that juvenile detention is very low and stays consistently low.

Important notes

The youth that are caught by police and sent to juvenile detention are released 6 months later.
After undertaking a trade skill at TAFE, the youth are engaged for a 6 month period.
These periods are both represented by delays.
No other factors are currently being implemented to reduce crime rates for youth.
The community development program (TAFE funding) and policing effectiveness are assumed to parallel the same effect on the adult population of Bourke. Therefore, we don't need to visually show the adult population.

Conclusion

From the model, we can gather that TAFE funding is highly effective in reducing crime rates in the youth of Bourke.

Assignment3_JasonNguyen_Bourke

Jason Nguyen

Shriya Ghai, 44110081

Crime Rate in Bourke

This model seeks to examine how the Youth and Adult of Bourke affects the police expenditures and community expenditures. The model is depicting about two different categories, i.e Youth and Adult but are connected by two variables i.e. Expenditure on Community Activities and Police.

Bourke : 3000

(I have assume that there are a high number of Adult as compared to Youth in Bourke)

Adult :2000

Youth:1000

Expenditure on Community Activities: 66

Police: 81

Youth Crime Rate : 0.6

Adult Crime Rate: 0.4

(Assuming that crime committed by Youth is more than crime committed by Adult)

About The Graph:

Youth commits crime and gets convicted but not everyone. The convicted ones are sent to detention where they spend their detention period and are released after that. There are some who improve after this period but there are also some people who recommits crime. Youth are registers/gets involved in various Community activities.

If people in Bourke take part in community activities, if will be good for them. Government is investing in community activities and police so that the crime rate decreased and more and more people get involved in different activities.

Also, there are two sliders; Police and Expenditure on Community Activities. We observe that if we increase the number of police, there is a significant decrease in crime rate. Feel free to use the sliders and observe how the crime rate and community engagement/activities changes.

Assignment 3

Shriya Ghai

Purpose of the model

To show the impact of increasing number of active police and increase development programs in order to lessen crime in the city of Bourke.

Assumptions

3000 residents in Bourke

4.37% of the population is consider to be At Risk

Funding and # of Police units will be consistent in a 12 month period.

STOCKS

AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Individuals who committed a crime

CRIME

Includes Domestic violence and Petty Crimes.

JAIL

Once an At Risk Individual is convicted of their crime they get sent to this.

COMMUNITY PROGRAM

Where at risk individuals can register and commit to a community program.

NOT AT RISK INDIVIDUALS

Once an at risk individual completes the community Program

VARIABLES

LGA COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FUNDING

Amount of funding that can be used to increase Police Units, or improve the community Program

POLICE UNITS

Amount of Police that are active in Bourke at a given time

ARRESTS

Arrests rate depends on number of active police units

PROGRAM COMPLETION RATE

Program completion depends on the amount of Funding it gets

SET NUMBERS

Total population of Bourke is 3000 as seen here.

Total Number of At Risk Individuals is collected at a research conducted by BOCSAR.

At risk individuals include crimes such as Domestic Violence, Robbery, Break and enter dwelling, Break and enter non-dwelling

Suggested Settings.

Maxing one slider while the other is at its minimum value, to show which gives a bigger impact

Maxing Both sliders to show how it affects the crime rate.

Both sliders at its minimum value to show how crime rates would react.

44638965 - Marian Joseph Sabana

MJ Sabana

Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.

To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons.

This model has been developed to demonstrate how youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.

Assumption

The following assumptions have been made:

25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour.

75% have positive engagement in society

Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years

Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending

Conclusion

It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment.

Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences.

There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.

Bibliography

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke

Michaela Dwyer

Description of the Model:

This model represents the youth community of the town of Bourke, where boredom and lack of motivation is a key issue in the community that has lead to an increase in crime.

The state government has decided to spend money in the town, and the model represents the effects of the level of funding as well as the effects of how the funding is used.

The model can be useful for the state government to decide how much they should spend, and whether it should be spent on policing or sporting clubs and trade schools, while also accounting for the effectiveness of the program and deciding how strict the juvenile detention center should be.

The Model in Detail:

Good Children:

The model assumes that all the children (Based on an estimated 1000 children) are good at the beginning. They very gradually become bored regardless of the level of social sports clubs, as not all children may be interesting in sports.

The funding towards sports clubs and the effectiveness of the programs determine the rate of boredom among the good children.

Bored Mischievous Children:

As children get bored, they will cause mischief and varying degrees of crime.

The level of funding for sports and the effectiveness of the program will affect the level of social engagement that will pull children away from causing mischief, and become good children again.

At the same time the level of funding for policing will affect how many of the trouble making youths get caught and placed in juvenile detention.

Juvenile Detention:

Once the children are in Juvenile detention, they must serve their time to be released.

The release rate reflects how well behaving inmates are released, and the strictness of the sentences applied to youths.

Once they are released, they are still considered bored and causing mischief until they reengaged with the community through social activities funded by the state government such as playing sports.

Adjustments to the Model:

Government Funding:

The state government has decided to spend in Bourke to reduce the level of crime thought to be caused by boredom in teens.

The slider can be adjusted from 0.1 to 100 to reflect the level of funding that the town should receive, where 100 is the maximum and 0.1 is very little funding.

Funding Ratio:

The funding Ratio can slide from 0.1 to 0.9 (left to right). When the slider is at 0.9, 90% the funding goes to policing which is at the right of the diagram and 10% goes to sports clubs.

At 0.1, 90% of the funding goes to Sports clubs which is at the left of the diagram, and only 10% will go to more policing.

Release Rate:

As part of solving the criminal mindset of youths in Bourke, the state government may decide to also be more lenient towards good behaving youths in detention centers by letting them out earlier to reduce the negative influence of other detainees, or simply shortening the time spent in general.

A higher release rate allows more youths to be released meaning a more lenient approach can be modelled.

Effectiveness of Program:

The state government may choose to run various programs with various levels of effectiveness before resorting to diverting spending on policing.

The state government can model the consequences of ineffective programs as well as the benefits of a well run program.

An effectiveness of 1 is maximum effectiveness, while an effectiveness of 0 will result in no effect as result of spending.

Initial Values:

Good Children: 1000

Bored Mischievous Children: 0

Juvenile Detention: 0

Government funding: 100

Funding Ratio: 0.75

Release Rate: 0.1

Effectiveness of Program: 1

42103053 - Riki Gleeson

Riki Gleeson

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Youth alienation is operationalised as the rate per 100,000 of Juvenile offences in the town of Bourke. A baseline figure of 126 (per 100,000) is used and is extrapolated from NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics 2016 LGA table: http://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_crime_stats/bocsar_lgaexceltables.aspx

This is a broad model that seeks to demonstrate lowering the Youth alienation index by lowering the Juvenile offending rates in Bourke. This is achieved through the lowering of negative inputs and the increase of positive inputs.

Assumptions in this model are:

1.) Juvenile = age 10 -19 years

2.) Domestic Violence offences in the adult population (age 20 years plus), Youth Unemployment Rate and Antisocial Juvenile Gang Activity are the primary negative inputs contributing to increased Juvenile offending rates

3.) Youth Programs and Services are the primary positive inputs to decreased Juvenile offending rates

4.) The 4 primary inputs are influenced by variables directly or indirectly in positive inputs (blue lines and writing with plus signs), or negative inputs (red lines and writing with minus signs)

5.) Readers are advised to be aware of the “double negative” values in this model and it’s formulas. Youth Alienation is expressed in a positive number, despite being conceived of as a negative and undesirable social phenomenon. Therefore, the primary negative inputs (Domestic Violence rates, Antisocial Youth Gang activity and Youth Unemployment) are numerically positive in the associated formulas for flow inputs, but graphically presented as negative inputs. Similarly, the primary positive input (Youth Programs and Services) are numerically negative, but graphically positive.

Conclusion:

It is hypothesised that an increase in social capital, combined with the reducing influence of reforming processes elsewhere in the system, will lead over time to a reduction in Youth Alienation in Bourke (indexed by a reduction in the Juvenile Crime rate).

Youth Alienation in Bourke: a model for it's causes and reform

Ross Williams

Bourke Models