Bourke | Insight Maker

Brief Description of this Model

This model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of youth crime rates and domestic violence amongst adults which has accumulated cost of millions of dollars. A new approach has been propose to relocate of spending away from policing and justice system into community engagement which this model tries to demonstrate. Investment in communities represents investing in community worker.

Assumptions

Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community.
Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible.

Initial Values - Members of Bourke Community

Home: 1000

Alienation: 120

Crime: 80

Jail: 200

Community: 500

Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100

Police

How this model works

The essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial.

A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community.

Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.

After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities.

Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids.

Interesting Settings.

As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty.

Police : 99

Community Worker: 90

Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Siofilisi Latu Sikalu

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Harikrishna Elaprolu

This model is looking at the youth in the town of Bourke, in NSW Australia. It has been designed to look at the impacts that the police force and community engagement can have on the youth in Bourke, specifically in relation to the crime rates within the town and what factors impact on this, including unemployment and drug and alcohol use.

Assumptions:

- Total youth in Bourke = 25,000

- Currently in Jail = 15,500

- Currently in rehabilitation = 6,500

- Youth who participate in a Community program and complete it = 75%

- Youth with antisocial behaviour = 2,000

- Youth with drug and alcohol problems = 6,500

- Unemployment = 10,000

- Youth placed into rehab due to drugs = 1,500

The youth in Bourke enter into a community program, and 75% of youth complete the program and return to the total youth. The 25% that do not complete become disengaged and wind up in jail. They complete a rehabilitation program and return to the community after 6 months. Youth with unemployment are impacted by drug and alcohol use and they are either detected by the police and placed into the rehabilitation program, or they are not detected and continue on a cycle of unemployment and drug and alcohol use.

The Government funding goes into the community programs and into the jail. The police force impacts on the disengaged youth entering into jail, the youth who become rehabilitated and detecting the drug and alcohol use of the youth.

There are two graphs in particular that are called out in this model. They are:

1) Youth in Jail and Disengagement

2) Youth in the Community Program and Youth Completing the Program

When looking at graph number one with the sliders on 100 Police Staff Members and $50,000 Government Funding you can see that the more youth that complete the program, the less youth there are in jail. We can identify that the completion of the program decreases the amount of youth in jail.

When these sliders are decreased to their lowest with 5 police staff members and $5,000 of government funding we see that the time it takes for the completion of community programs to be surpass the youth in jail occurs after 11 years as opposed to 7 years in the previous graph.

The second graph identifies when the sliders are at their highest the delay and time it takes to engage the youth in the rehabilitation program vs. the youth in the community program, and that the youth entering into the programs and completing match up to one another. When the sliders are at there lowest the rehabilitation sits much lower at all times and the time taken to increase the amount of youth completing the program is substantially longer.

Overall this model stimulates the importance on not only the police force and government funding, but the two working alongside one another for optimum results for the youth in Bourke.

Sarah Herring Assignment Three

Sarah Herring

Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:

Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:

Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation:

Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!

- Sam

Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke

JAMES SAVAGE

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Laksh Taneja

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Zaiceva Ekaterina

Background Information

Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney.

The state government is implementing a new measure to prevent further crime committed by installing community programs such as sporting clubs, and classes to develop relationships among police and the community.

Many youth were going from home to juvenile detention and back, and many adults were on a similar roundabout between the community and jail.

Community development programs hopefully will reduce the levels of domestic violence among adults, and petty crime among the town’s youth.

Model Explanation

Firstly, you notice Adult and Youth population is separated and assumed that 50% of adults will commit crime whereas 20% in youth. A certain percentage is given for the number that is guilty and not guilty. Guilty, will receive certain punishment according to their age category and after their sentence is served, they go back to town.

Policing Expenditures shows how many officers are needed to reduce the amount of crime. Officers are called when a crime/mischief is committed, whether they're caught or not and found guilty or not.

Stocks

Adult Population: Adults in Bourke

Youth Population: Teenagers in Bourke

Crime: Domestic Violence/Homicide

Mischief: Petty Crimes

Jail: If Guilty, adults are sent to jail

Juvenile Detention: If guilty, youth are sent to detention

Community Programs: Sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships among police and “at risk” households, and teaching trade-skills

Assumptions

Adult Population: 2100

Youth Population: 900

Adult Crimes: 50%

Youth Mischief: 20%

Goal

The aim of this model is to illustrate the affects of implementing change i.e. policing/government aid within a community

Trends

The increase of Government Aid and Policing Expenditures decreases the crime performed in the community.

We can see a positive outcome from this and can take into account the affects of proper execution by the state government

44763514 Assignment 3 - Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Kevin Chu

Crime Patterns among the youth population of Bourke-model

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. Alienation and expenditure are the independent variables.

Inter-relation between youth crime, policing and community role

Uzair Karim

Model Explanation

This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime.

The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.

Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).

Assumptions

Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.

Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.

Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.

Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.

It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.

Interesting Results

Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens

Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW

Bryce Hercok

Background

The town of Bourke is in north-west New South Wales and became the first pilot site to implement an Aboriginal-let model of justice reinvestment in 2013, known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. The project aimed to demonstrate that sustainable outcomes can be achieved by redirecting funding to the underlying causes of youth crime.

Model explanation

This complex systems model depicts the relationships between different players and helps simulate youth crime patterns when influenced by funded community engagement activities, fluctuating levels of alienation, and police funding over a period of 2 years. The funding of community engagement activities aims to increase youth participation and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.

Assumptions

75% of Bourke’s youth are disengaged from society.

25% of Bourke’s youth are engaged with society.

50% of Bourke’s engaged youth are not interested in the community activities.

60% of disengaged youth are alienated.

Police expenditure: 30

Community engagement expenditure: 60

Stocks

Youth of Bourke
Total youth population in Bourke. We are assuming there are 500 youths susceptible to committing crime within Bourke.

Community activities
Community programs aimed at youths which could include sports, arts and cultural programs, counselling, support groups, learner driving school, school holiday programs and health and development checks.

Disengaged Youth
Youths who are not engaged in positive community activities and are at risk of committing criminal activities. These youths may be affected by domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol or abuse.

Engaged Youth
Youths who are engaged in society in a positive way. The aim of this program is to have all youths positively engaged in Bourke’s community.

Crime
Youths who have committed a criminal offence.

Prison/detention
Youths who are found guilty of a criminal offence and are now in prison or detention.

Rehabilitation
Youths who have left prison/detention and are now attending rehabilitation programs. This rehabilitation should decrease the likelihood of youths re-offending.

Variables

Police expenditure
Funding for police presence to decrease the number of youths participating in criminal activities and whether they are convicted and imprisoned. If youths are imprisoned, police expenditure can also help move them towards rehabilitation to lessen the chance of re-offence.

Community engagement expenditure
Funding of community activities aimed at the youth of Bourke. These activities are designed to positively impact the lives of youth and lessen the chance of alienation and disengagement from the community.

Alienation
Contributing factors to alienation of youths in Bourke include domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol, abuse, homelessness, and lack of education.

School/VET attendance
The rate at which Bourke’s youth attend school or vocational education and training courses (VET) to further their education and increase their engagement in the community.

Conclusions

This complex model indicates the impact of only a few variables, yet there are many more that can be considered. However, this model shows that over a period of 2 years, the combination of community engagement funding, police funding and education can improve the lives of Bourke’s susceptible youth. The most significant impact is made by the community engagement funding. If this funding is decreased, the rate of engaged youth decreases, and the rate of disengaged youth does not improve.

MKT563 Ass 4 - Complex systems - Justice Reinvestment Project in the town of Bourke

Renee Dickens

Introduction

Bourke is a small town, located in New South Wales. The absence of a large number of entertainment negatively affects on a level of crime in town.

The model offers two options to increase the number of policemen to reduce the number of unresolved crimes, or to direct funds for the prevention of social problems and spend budget money on the development of sports clubs and educational programs(such as trading workshops).

Assumptions:

Bourke has a population of 3000 people, some of them commit crimes. Green are those variables that belong to the younger generation, respectively, orange marked variables that refer to the adult.

Since adults commit more serious crimes, violent character, then the variable refers to them (as well as a variable Jail). However, it is worth noting that such crimes are committed less often than minor crimes, so for the former to be added coefficient 0.05.

Variables:

Police presence: shows the amount of police in town

Engagement: the amount pf people, living in Bourke, who are engaged to take part in engagement activities.

Successful traders: The amount of traders, that are well known and successfully finished the course.

Number of successful athletes: The amount of successful athletes, who can serve as an example for young people to play sports.

(These two variables have not so significant effect on a correlation( such as first 2 variables), that is why, the are filled in a different colour(purple)).

Interesting Outcomes

The first simulation shows the correlation between

Despite of a large number of police officers (100), the number of domestic violence will still exceed the number of convicts. It could be said that not only police can not catch all the criminals, but also that not all victims submit an application to the police. For example, the do not want to disclose that.

The relationship between the involvement programs and the residents of Peter is much more ergonomic than the dependency between the number of policemen and the police's disclosure.

Therefore, it can be concluded that investing in engagement programs will do more good in a long-run than investing in prevention reforms.

Bourke Justice Reinvestment, Assignment 3, 44042590

Damir Malikov

MKT563 – Big Data and Marketing Analytics – Assignment 4 – Jodi Thornton (11743099)

Introduction

Bourke is in North-Western NSW and has a population of 2,634 people.

Approximately 31.5% of the population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, compared to an average of 2.9% across NSW.

In 2013, the township of Bourke implemented the first pilot program for justice reinvestment, with Aboriginal leadership. The program is known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.

Youth development

Reform to youth development and an increase in participation-based programs allowed for an increase in youth involvement within the community. Programs such as the School Holiday program or the 8 to 18-year-old working group helped to contribute towards a positive shift in youth inclusion and reduce alienation such as high school absenteeism, high school non graduate rate and an increase in TAFE/VET enrolments (and subsequent completions).

Police and Legal System

Through a series of initiatives aimed at Adult Empowerment, a decrease in bail breaches saw a 21% reduction YOY, as well as a 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents. The initiatives included the Role of Men working group, Early Childhood and Parenting work group and Aboriginal employment prosperity strategy. There was a 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a top criminal offence YOY from 2016 to 2017.

Community development

As of 2020, the ABC reported that North-Western NSW children are still at a disadvantage with some of the state’s highest percentages for lack of internet access, with Bourke reporting 30.1% of children still do not have internet access at home.

One of the community (and youth) initiatives implemented was the Birrang Learner Driver Program. The program saw an 83% increase in successful test completions YOY with 2016.

Initial parameters

- Internet access = 0.625

- Licence success rate = 0.83

- High school students = 160

- High school attendance rate = 0.74

- TAFE completion rate = 0.84

- Reoffence rate = 0.695

- Crime = 239 (arrests by charged rate)

- Charged = 0.38

- Breach rate = 0.27

- Youths = 302

- Arrests = 91

- Aboriginal background = 0.60

Variables (sliders)

Internet access

- Licence success rate

- High school students

- High school attendance rate

- TAFE completion rate

- Reoffence rate

- Crime

- Charged

- Breach rate

Assumptions

- Bourke has 31.5% aboriginal population.

- TAFE enrolments are governed by successful high school graduates.

- 3.3% of juveniles under 18 attend technical and further education

- There are 160 high school students – 60% have an Aboriginal background

- The attendance rate for high school students is 74%

- It would stand to reason that the absentee rate is 100 – 74 = initial value is 26%

- The simulation has been set to run for 5 years

- There are 302 youths aged between 10 and 19 years old

- 15-19 year olds make up for 4.6% of the population in Bourke (121).

- Licences achieved had an 83% increase YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 23% reduction in domestic violence incidents YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 27% reduction in juvenile bail breaches YOY from 2016 to 2017

- 38% reduction in juveniles being charged with a “top 5 offence” (91 arrests)

References

Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (n.d.). Data by region. Retrieved 6 June 2021, from https://dbr.abs.gov.au/region.html?lyr=lga&rgn=11150

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

KPMG. (2018, November). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

McCutcheon, J. (2020, August 27). Internet at home not available to 26pc of children living in remote New South Wales. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-28/internet-access-for-students-in-the-bush-unequal-to-city-kids/12601120

MKT563 - Assignment 4

Jodi Thornton

Bourke Youth and Crime Model - Didier Deray

This model illustrates the effect of police and the investment in community development programs on the youth population of Bourke. This representation depicts what happens to the youth that are and aren't convicted from crimes using assumed amounts. It also depicts the youth that transform from juvenile detention and community development programs, and those that recommit crime using assumed numbers.

The investment in community development programs includes sporting clubs, developing interpersonal relationships and teaching trade-skills.

The two sliders, 'Police' and 'Investment in Community Development Programs', allow their respective impacts on the youth population in Bourke to be observed.

Assumptions

The youth population in Bourke is 1000
The maximum number of police in Bourke is 60
The maximum amount of investment in community development programs is $100 000
1/3 of the youth that commit crime do not get convicted
Out of the youth that participate in the community development programs, 5/6 transform and 1/6 regress to commit crimes again
Out of the youth that go to juvenile detention, 70% recommit crime and only 30% transform

Suggested Settings with assumptions

The 'Police' variable is set at 30 because this is the assumed average amount of officers at any time of the day in Bourke
The 'Investment in Community Development Programs' variable is set at $10 000 because this is the assumed amount of money that is already invested into the programs

Assignment 3 Bourke - 44919182

Didier Deray

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bethanie Clarke

Introduction

This model simulates the effects of (community engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol, drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.

These variables can be manipulated for policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to year.

Assumptions

Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.

Initial Values

600 alienated people

480 people committing crime

250 people arrested awaiting Trial

500 people in Jail

1000 people active in Community Groups

6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle

Constants

20% of youth and adults will become disengaged with society

80% of alienated people are at risk of committing a crime

20% of alienated people become re-engaged in society by their own will

90% of those arrested are put in jail and 10% are not charged

80% of youth and adults join potentially will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend

Variables

Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.

The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.

The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.

Outcomes

With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.

An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.

A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.

If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.

Recommendations

If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.

THE TOWN OF BURKE - How does Community Engagement and Policing Expenditure effect the community with varying unemployment and alcohol and drug use.

Steven D'Alessandro

This is a Complex System Model of the Town of Bourke, New South Wales, Australia. A complex model of the patterns, rates and variables of crime within Bourke.

The model shows the relationship between the stocks and the vaiarbales of crime in Bourke, such as:

Bourke Residents

Youth Alienation/Community Engagement

Drugs/Alcohol/Petty Crime

Juvenile Dentetion/Rehabilation

With these rates taken into account:

Access to Drugs and Alcohol

Conviction Rate

Police

Active/Follow ups

Assumptions

This Complex Systems Model is going to assume that the population of Bourke is 1000 people and is constant over the whole timeframe. This is due to the fact of an inability to create a changing population base throughout the time frame.

We will be also making the assumption that the variables stay at a constant rate thoughout the models timeframe, this includes:

Access to drugs and alcohol

Conviction Rate

Police

Active/Follow ups

We are also making the assumption that the individuals in Bourke can only be active in the varaibles and stocks provided, and these will account for the whole population.

Results

In this Complex Systems Model, results where quite obvious and as expected as it was clear situations such as:

Access to Drugs and Alcohol clearly effected the rate of Petty Crime

Active Follow Ups clearly effected the rate of Rehabilitation

Karen Laba

44901836

Clone of Assignment 3 - 44901836

Karen laba

Bourke Models