Charles-Sturt-University

The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

The model

This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,

Assumptions

Youth population 15-24 years old.

At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.

Initial Values

Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000

Constants

80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.

50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.

70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.

20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention

60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.

20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated

Variables (Sliders)

Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.

Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.

Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.

Conclusion

When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.

The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

Monika Rozkiewicz

Assessment 4, MKT563 201930

Danielle Skerrett
Student ID: 11664109
Charles Sturt University

About this Model:
This balancing structure loop model visualises the various factors that can affect the youth of Bourke, NSW. High crime rates have severely affected this LGA in previous years, however the introduction of a new program is proving to be an effective limiter for young offenders. This new Community Reinvestment program is proving to not only have positive impacts on the youth of Bourke, but is also saving the region a lot of money. This in turn allows for investment back into local community programs, that would have otherwise gone towards judicial processes.

Assumptions:
Based on 2016 Census data:

Bourke Population: 3000
Indigenous persons: 1000
Youth*: 669 or 21%

*For the purposes of this model, “youth” is classified as members of the population under 25 years of age.

Results of reinvestment program:

38% reduction in charges across the top five juvenile offence categories

31% increase in year 12 student retention rates

27% reduction in bail breaches by juveniles

Variables:
Youth Crime rates in Australia as of 2016: 3.33%

References:

Allam, L., (2018). The Guardian. Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). Census Data for Bourke LGA. Retrieved from

https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/SSC10522

KPMG Impact Assessment (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. Retrieved from
http://www.justreinvest.org.au/impact-of-maranguka-justice-reinvestment/

Milliken, R., (2018). Inside Story. Breakthrough at Bourke. Retrieved from
https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., Davies, A., (2016). ABC Four Corners. Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Assessment 4 - Effect of Community Reinvestment on Bourke's Youth Population

Danielle Skerrett

The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

The model

This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,

Assumptions

Youth population 15-24 years old.

At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.

Initial Values

Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000

Constants

80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.

50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.

70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.

20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention

60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.

20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated

Variables (Sliders)

Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.

Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.

Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.

Conclusion

When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.

Clone of The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

Hamza Razi

Charles-Sturt-University Models