This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

• Youth
  
• Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
  
• Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
  
• Probation – release from punishment
  
• Education system – various programs
  

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly.  More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

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​Youth Crime rate in Bourke

​Youth Crime rate in Bourke

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.

​The Model shows the interaction between the towns youth, Juvenile detention and the youth center. With 250 youth in town and none in either juvenile detention or the youth center

Youth who enroll in the community center will become educated resulting in a reduction of offences due to the reduced alienation towards law enforcement and more practical thinking.

Child and youth mental health and wellbeing synthesis with a focus on adverse childhood experiences and youth suicide WIP See also added Women and Violence IM

Background

The town of Bourke is in north-west New South Wales and became the first pilot site to implement an Aboriginal-let model of justice reinvestment in 2013, known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. The project aimed to demonstrate that sustainable outcomes can be achieved by redirecting funding to the underlying causes of youth crime.

Model explanation

This complex systems model depicts the relationships between different players and helps simulate youth crime patterns when influenced by funded community engagement activities, fluctuating levels of alienation, and police funding over a period of 2 years. The funding of community engagement activities aims to increase youth participation and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.

Assumptions

75% of Bourke’s youth are disengaged from society.

25% of Bourke’s youth are engaged with society.

50% of Bourke’s engaged youth are not interested in the community activities.

60% of disengaged youth are alienated.

Police expenditure: 30

Community engagement expenditure: 60

Stocks

Youth of Bourke
Total youth population in Bourke. We are assuming there are 500 youths susceptible to committing crime within Bourke.

Community activities
Community programs aimed at youths which could include sports, arts and cultural programs, counselling, support groups, learner driving school, school holiday programs and health and development checks.

Disengaged Youth
Youths who are not engaged in positive community activities and are at risk of committing criminal activities. These youths may be affected by domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol or abuse.

Engaged Youth
Youths who are engaged in society in a positive way. The aim of this program is to have all youths positively engaged in Bourke’s community.

Crime
Youths who have committed a criminal offence.

Prison/detention
Youths who are found guilty of a criminal offence and are now in prison or detention.

Rehabilitation
Youths who have left prison/detention and are now attending rehabilitation programs. This rehabilitation should decrease the likelihood of youths re-offending.

Variables

Police expenditure
Funding for police presence to decrease the number of youths participating in criminal activities and whether they are convicted and imprisoned. If youths are imprisoned, police expenditure can also help move them towards rehabilitation to lessen the chance of re-offence.

Community engagement expenditure
Funding of community activities aimed at the youth of Bourke. These activities are designed to positively impact the lives of youth and lessen the chance of alienation and disengagement from the community.

Alienation
Contributing factors to alienation of youths in Bourke include domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol, abuse, homelessness, and lack of education.

School/VET attendance
The rate at which Bourke’s youth attend school or vocational education and training courses (VET) to further their education and increase their engagement in the community.

Conclusions

This complex model indicates the impact of only a few variables, yet there are many more that can be considered. However, this model shows that over a period of 2 years, the combination of community engagement funding, police funding and education can improve the lives of Bourke’s susceptible youth. The most significant impact is made by the community engagement funding. If this funding is decreased, the rate of engaged youth decreases, and the rate of disengaged youth does not improve.

This is a conceptual model that encapsulates the relationships between youth, community and police & justice within the town of Bourke, located in New South Wales, Australia. The conceptual model is interactive and when the funding and engagement models are changed, the rates will increase or decrease in the simulation. These sliders can be found at the bottom of this description.

WIP Clone of IM-94482 Early Childhood Intervention with added Women's Health and Violence frorm Montesanti2015 mapping article

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages. 

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

Revised version of Suicide 3 insight  in preparation for an individual based model scoping exercise