Crime | Insight Maker

Model Explanation

This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime.

The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.

Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).

Assumptions

Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.

Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.

Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.

Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.

It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.

Interesting Results

Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).
Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:

It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Tuan Dat Huynh

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).
Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:

It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300

Detected violent families: 100.

Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Sarah Herring

Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

Clone of Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Hamza Razi

Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

Clone of Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Hamza Razi

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Jack Sun

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bethanie Clarke

Outline of white-collar crime, and what it is, to further understand it.

White-Collar Crime

Kimiko Harada

Introduction

Please view Story to have a quick guided tour to the simulation.

This is a simple model of a community project aiming to affect the growing problem of juveniles ending up in juvenile detention. The model is trying to show a simulation 2 different effects. One is the involvement and investment in the community by introducing Sports Club membership and etc and the other is the level of involvement from the police.

Key Assumptions:

- There are 1000 youths living in Bourke Town

- All convicts are sentenced to a 6 month jail term

- Each simulation budget has a value from 0-100%.

- Policing Budget affects the Tempted Flow Rate and the Charged Flow Rate

- Community Investment assumes a 6 month delay before effect of investment

- Community Investment only is investing in engaging youths with sports and team games with a Sports Club Membership

- Success rate of Sports Club Membership is 100%

Key Findings:

- Policing must be a minimum of 50% and Community Investment must be a minimum of 45% to see crime rates go down below 5%

- Simulation goes to prove that with almost equal efforts spent on the community and policing, together it will be able to improve the status of the town and drastically decrease the crime and jail rates in Bourke.

Bourke Reinvestment Project (Joshua, 43976808)

Joshua Lee

probando cia

alejandro

conceptual model

MKT563_Big_Data_2019

banushree

The small town of Bourke is located in a remote area northwest of New South Wales, leaving the town's youth in a vulnerable position to commit crime and get into trouble. This issue raises questions about the best approach to go about preventing crime in Bourke.

The following insight indicates the level of crime in the town of Bourke in correlation to the levels of Police and Community Engagement. The model demonstrates how different variables throughout the community can improve the overall crime rate.

Police Expenditure is a major variable in this situation as investing in more police officers will increase the chances of convicting the youth population and placing them in juvenile detention. Additionally, placing an emphasis on police activity will make kids less inclined to commit crimes.

However, our goal is to prevent the youth from wanting to commit crime in the first place. One of the major factors in regards to the high crime rate of the town is due to the lack of activities for the minors to engage in. Providing an Engagement Program is key to keeping kids preoccupied and focused on productive activities. Various clubs will be included in the program depending on the interests of the kids. Since football is a popular activity throughout the community, investing in a Football Club is a wise decision. This club will play a key role in reducing the amount of boredom within the youth population and leave them less inclined to cause mischief.

The insight demonstrates how the motivation to commit crime is reduced when the level of boredom is low and there are activities to engage in. In this scenario, the more engaged the youth is, the more likely they are to continue down this positive path and simply return home after the activity is over (Labeled "Darren") and not commit crimes.

Observing the model, it is evident that Community engagement programs play a significant role in keeping crime to a minimum. The value slider gives you the option to examine the crime rate when police activity is high and engagement program is low & vice versa. The simulation indicates that crime is consistently lower when there is a high concentration on community engagement. Incorporating the data included in the model to resolve the crime problem in Bourke; there should be heavy investment in Engagement Programs while keeping a moderate level of police active at all times to ensure punishment for the youth who commit crime despite the programs.

BOURKE Crime vs. Engagement

Brett Ely

This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.

There are four variables in the model which represents different links to the main re-investment project in the town, which include aid spent on a rehab centre for the correction of youth and also on policing reforms. It also has two slider for the police and aid to increase or decrease the value.

The graph generated via simulation shows a directly proportional reaction between aid and police and also between aid and detention centre.

There value of stocks in the model has been assumed for the understanding of the model.

44135149_ Muhammad Umer

Muhammad Umer

Introduction

Please view Story to have a quick guided tour to the simulation.

This is a simple model of a community project aiming to affect the growing problem of juveniles ending up in juvenile detention. The model is trying to show a simulation 2 different effects. One is the involvement and investment in the community by introducing Sports Club membership and etc and the other is the level of involvement from the police.

Key Assumptions:

- There are 1000 youths living in Bourke Town

- All convicts are sentenced to a 6 month jail term

- Each simulation budget has a value from 0-100%.

- Policing Budget affects the Tempted Flow Rate and the Charged Flow Rate

- Community Investment assumes a 6 month delay before effect of investment

- Community Investment only is investing in engaging youths with sports and team games with a Sports Club Membership

- Success rate of Sports Club Membership is 100%

Key Findings:

- Policing must be a minimum of 50% and Community Investment must be a minimum of 45% to see crime rates go down below 5%

- Simulation goes to prove that with almost equal efforts spent on the community and policing, together it will be able to improve the status of the town and drastically decrease the crime and jail rates in Bourke.

Clone of Clone of Bourke Reinvestment Project (Joshua, 43976808)

Pavel Burmakin

This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.

There are four variables in the model which represents different links to the main re-investment project in the town, which include aid spent on a rehab centre for the correction of youth and also on policing reforms. It also has two slider for the police and aid to increase or decrease the value.

The graph generated via simulation shows a directly proportional reaction between aid and police and also between aid and detention centre.

There value of stocks in the model has been assumed for the understanding of the model.

44135149_ Muhammad Umer

Muhammad Umer

Details:

- This model shows the effect of ‘reinvestment program ‘or the expenditure on policing and community development affects the cycles of petty-crime and youth detention, and domestic violence and jail.

More details:

-  Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney. See the map: https://goo.gl/maps/VgNqgMNzJ7H2. It’s nowhere and there’s not much to do there if you’re young. So, a lot of kids get into mischief, and a lot of adult’s drink. Sometimes they’re violent.

- http://www.justreinvest.org.au/justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/

Assumption:

· Bourke Funding consist of Law enforcement funding and Community Development funding only

o Bourke budget only has $400,000

· Juvenile detention stay last for 6 months

· There is only 2 options as a Youth, commit petty crime or engage in Youth development programs

· 1 unit of Police, Juvenile and Educational program HR and Equipment is = 0.25

o 1 unit increase results in an 0.25 effectiveness increase

· Sport clubs, educational programs and social programs are comprised into Youth Development Program as 1 stock.

· Juvenile support relies on encouraging youth who are in detention centers to join youth development programs, if not they will reoffend.

Stocks:

o Home

o Youth Development program

o Discharged

o Juvenile detention center

o Petty Crime

Variable:

· Reinvestment Allocation – ranges from 0 – 1 , law enforcement investment allocation is 1 – reinvestment allocation. Slide the slider through 0 to 1 to change the reinvestment allocation by 10% l

· Bourke funding budget is fixed to make it seem more realistic (imagine employing a whole army of teachers or police, it wouldn’t make sense)

· Youth Population varies , from 1000 to 10,000 for realism along with its time period (4 years). Slider the the slider to increase or decrease the population by 1,000s

Juvenile support effectiveness rate, Youth development program effectiveness rate, conviction rate, Police HR/ equipment, Juvenile Support HR/ equipment, Youth Development program HR/ equipment

Interrelationship and reinforcing loops

· The youth population starts as as Neutral (Home) then leans towards alienation and connectedness

· Alienation Reinforcing Loop - Alienation has Conviction rate as a factor as conviction rate increase Alienation increase. This is because as youths get arrested, meaning they’ll have to stay in Detention centers, their friends are more likely to follow on due to them getting ‘bored’.

· Connectedness Reinforcing Loop - The opposite exist with Connectedness, as educational program effectiveness increase so as Connectedness. This follows onto the same assumption that youth will always follow peer pressure. The more friends they have in the program, the more likely they will join aswell.

Analysis:

1. Which loop is the youth in?

· Once the allocation slider is used with its minimum or maximum value, the loop at which majority of the youth population is ‘stuck in’ becomes obvious. E.g. Once allocation = 1, the entire youth is stuck between educational program and their home, showing the effectiveness of community development funding. On the other hand, once allocation = 0, the entire youth loops around from doing Petty Crimes, spending their time in Juvenile detention centers, then getting discharged to only commit petty crimes again.

2. Alienation vs. Connectedness

· Set the allocation slider on 0.8, The massive difference between the youth of population feeling connected with their community and youth being alienated can be seen. The increase in Reinvestment, the increase in connectedness. Try the extremes as well, 100% reinvestment funding results in 0 Alienation rate.

3.  What is the Youth Engaged in ? Educational Programs or Petty Crime ?

· Leaving the slider on 0.8, it can be seen that the there are more youth engaged into educational programs than petty crime. This shows that reinvestment and petty crime has a negative relationship .

4. More police = safer ?

- Set the slider on 0.1 , it can be seen that Conviction which has police as a factor is positively correlated to Crime. This means that an increase in conviction rate is equivalent to more youth being alienated and committing crime. Therefore, more police less safer.

Have fun!

44911017_Lorenzo_Casaol_MGMT220

Lorenzo Casaol

Introduction

Please view Story to have a quick guided tour to the simulation.

This is a simple model of a community project aiming to affect the growing problem of juveniles ending up in juvenile detention. The model is trying to show a simulation 2 different effects. One is the involvement and investment in the community by introducing Sports Club membership and etc and the other is the level of involvement from the police.

Key Assumptions:

- There are 1000 youths living in Bourke Town

- All convicts are sentenced to a 6 month jail term

- Each simulation budget has a value from 0-100%.

- Policing Budget affects the Tempted Flow Rate and the Charged Flow Rate

- Community Investment assumes a 6 month delay before effect of investment

- Community Investment only is investing in engaging youths with sports and team games with a Sports Club Membership

- Success rate of Sports Club Membership is 100%

Key Findings:

- Policing must be a minimum of 50% and Community Investment must be a minimum of 45% to see crime rates go down below 5%

- Simulation goes to prove that with almost equal efforts spent on the community and policing, together it will be able to improve the status of the town and drastically decrease the crime and jail rates in Bourke.

Bourke Reinvestment Project (Joshua, 43976808)

Steven D'Alessandro

Crime Models