Youth Crime in Bourke

​The Model shows the interaction between the towns youth, Juvenile detention and the youth center. With 250 youth in town and none in either juvenile detention or the youth center

Youth who enroll in the community center will become educated resulting in a reduction of offences due to the reduced alienation towards law enforcement and more practical thinking.

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

•      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  
•      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  
•      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  
•      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  
•      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
  

Constants:  

• It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  
• Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
  

Things to note:

•      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  
•      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  
•      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  
•      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
  

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages. 

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

conceptual model

The Model:

I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke.  In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.


Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250

Outline of white-collar crime, and what it is, to further understand it.

Model Explanation: <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";} @page {margin:.75in .7in .75in .7in; mso-header-margin:.3in; mso-footer-margin:.3in;} td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:12.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;} --> <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";} @page {margin:.75in .7in .75in .7in; mso-header-margin:.3in; mso-footer-margin:.3in;} td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:12.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;} --> <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";} @page {margin:.75in .7in .75in .7in; mso-header-margin:.3in; mso-footer-margin:.3in;} td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:12.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;} -->

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

•      Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
  
•      Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
  
•      Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
  
•      Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).   
  
•      Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
  

Constants:  

• It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
  
• Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
  

Things to note:

•      Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
  
•      Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
  
•      Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
  
•      Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
  

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300                      

Detected violent families: 100.

Introduction​

Introduction​

Introduction​

Details:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->This model shows the effect of ‘reinvestment program ‘or the expenditure on policing and community development affects the cycles of petty-crime and youth detention, and domestic violence and jail.

More details:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]--> Bourke is a town of 3000 people in the North West of New South Wales, about 750Km from Sydney. See the map: https://goo.gl/maps/VgNqgMNzJ7H2. It’s nowhere and there’s not much to do there if you’re young. So, a lot of kids get into mischief, and a lot of adult’s drink. Sometimes they’re violent.

 

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->http://www.justreinvest.org.au/justice-reinvestment-in-bourke/

Assumption:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Bourke Funding consist of Law enforcement funding and Community Development funding only

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Bourke budget only has $400,000

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention stay last for 6 months

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->There is only 2 options as a Youth, commit petty crime or engage in Youth development programs

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->1 unit of Police, Juvenile and Educational program HR and Equipment is = 0.25

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->1 unit increase results in an 0.25 effectiveness increase

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Sport clubs, educational programs and social programs are comprised into Youth Development Program as 1 stock.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Juvenile support relies on encouraging youth who are in detention centers to join youth development programs, if not they will reoffend.

Stocks:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Home

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Youth Development program

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Discharged

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Juvenile detention center

<!--[if !supportLists]-->o   <!--[endif]-->Petty Crime

Variable:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Reinvestment Allocation – ranges from 0 – 1 , law enforcement investment allocation is 1 – reinvestment allocation. Slide the slider through 0 to 1 to change the reinvestment allocation by 10% l

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Bourke funding budget is fixed to make it seem more realistic (imagine employing a whole army of teachers or police, it wouldn’t make sense)

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Youth Population varies , from 1000 to 10,000 for realism along with its time period (4 years). Slider the the slider to increase or decrease the population by 1,000s

Juvenile support effectiveness rate, Youth development program effectiveness rate, conviction rate, Police HR/ equipment, Juvenile Support HR/ equipment, Youth Development program HR/ equipment

Interrelationship and reinforcing loops

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->The youth population starts as as Neutral (Home) then leans towards alienation and connectedness

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Alienation Reinforcing Loop -  Alienation has Conviction rate as a factor as conviction rate increase Alienation increase. This is because as youths get arrested, meaning they’ll have to stay in Detention centers, their friends are more likely to follow on due to them getting ‘bored’.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Connectedness Reinforcing Loop - The opposite exist with Connectedness, as educational program effectiveness increase so as Connectedness. This follows onto the same assumption that youth will always follow peer pressure. The more friends they have in the program, the more likely they will join aswell.

 

Analysis:

<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.       <!--[endif]-->Which loop is the youth in?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Once the allocation slider is used with its minimum or maximum value, the loop at which majority of the youth population is ‘stuck in’ becomes obvious. E.g. Once allocation = 1, the entire youth is stuck between educational program and their home, showing the effectiveness of community development funding. On the other hand, once allocation = 0, the entire youth loops around from doing Petty Crimes, spending their time in Juvenile detention centers, then getting discharged to only commit petty crimes again.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->2.       <!--[endif]-->Alienation vs. Connectedness

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Set the allocation slider on 0.8, The massive difference between the youth of population feeling connected with their community and youth being alienated can be seen. The increase in Reinvestment, the increase in connectedness. Try the extremes as well, 100% reinvestment funding results in 0 Alienation rate.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->3.       <!--[endif]--> What is the Youth Engaged in ? Educational Programs or Petty Crime ?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->·       <!--[endif]-->Leaving the slider on 0.8, it can be seen that the there are more youth engaged into educational programs than petty crime. This shows that reinvestment and petty crime has a negative relationship .

<!--[if !supportLists]-->4.       <!--[endif]-->More police = safer ?

<!--[if !supportLists]-->-          <!--[endif]-->Set the slider on 0.1 , it can be seen that Conviction which has police as a factor is positively correlated to Crime. This means that an increase in conviction rate is equivalent to more youth being alienated and committing crime. Therefore, more police less safer.

 Have fun! 

 

This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.

This demonstrate the town of Bourke, numerous adolescent and grown-ups are exhausted and turned out to be insignificant wrongdoing in the town, they don't have anything to do in the town. Presently, the administration choose to build up the town where set up the grown-ups club, sports club which is for individuals in the town to play.