Crime | Insight Maker

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Daniel Chalk

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

The Model:

I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke. In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.

Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250

Clone of Assignment 3 44650701

Vinzaris

Brief Description of this Model

This model is design to stimulate the community in Bourke reflecting the involvement of police and community engagement to reduce alienation behavior, crime being committed which would lead to jail. With only 3000 members in the community, Bourke tops the charts of youth crime rates and domestic violence amongst adults which has accumulated cost of millions of dollars. A new approach has been propose to relocate of spending away from policing and justice system into community engagement which this model tries to demonstrate. Investment in communities represents investing in community worker.

Assumptions

Community workers are 80% successful in engaging of community.
Total elimination of pretty crime is not possible.

Initial Values - Members of Bourke Community

Home: 1000

Alienation: 120

Crime: 80

Jail: 200

Community: 500

Local Sport Clubs and Training Course: 100

Police

How this model works

The essences of this model is to dissolve the cycle of disengage community members from feeling alienated and being influence by antisocial activities, in which would likely lead to breaking the law and end up in jail. This model seeks to break the cycle by investing in policing and community workers running of community activities. The police involvement reduces crime rates and antisocial behavior. Engagement by community workers are also able to reduce antisocial.

A couple of program have reportedly been implement including of Operation Solidarity, were police officer follow up of victim's and perpetrator of domestic violence. Broadly represented by consultation/ rehabilitation in the model to include other services provided for alienated and previous offenders to resolve of issues and ease of reconnecting with community.

Antisocial activities is experience at home, local sports clubs and course training and community engagement. Such activities involve in abuse of drug and alcohol, and the effects of unemployment and boredom. Such activities is countered with engagement in community and local sports clubs and course, consultation / rehabilitation.

After consultation / rehabilitation, community members are reconnected with local sports club and from there to community engagement. Some would take time to reflect of their issues at Home, in which they would follow up consultation sessions or engage with community. However, like everyone at home, there is a possibility of expose to alienation and anti-social activities.

Community Engagement represents positive activities and connecting with the community. Idea for adults. The Local sports clubs and course training represents community activities for youth. Such activities have been implement such as the Muranguka Justice reinvestment Project were driving lessons and pre-school activities are offered for disadvantage kids.

Interesting Settings.

As assume not all criminal activities are prevented, therefore, jail would still contain a member of the public. However, graphs would indicate long-term that jails are rather empty.

Police : 99

Community Worker: 90

Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Siofilisi Latu Sikalu

Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.

To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons.

This model has been developed to demonstrate how youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.

Assumption

The following assumptions have been made:

25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour.

75% have positive engagement in society

Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years

Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending

Conclusion

It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment.

Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences.

There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.

Bibliography

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke

Michaela Dwyer

the insight shows how the officials of Brouke can help the youth by having them engaged in community programs. youth who are engaged in community programs are more likely to have a better social life compared to youth who are disengaged and into alienation. it shows the relation between social development of a youth vs the one who is disengaged.

Clone of Brouke Community engagement (Big data) {Anu Priya 11662683}

Gyanendra Lama

An analysis of the impacts on youth outcomes in the town of Bourke.

The model

This model simulates the impact of factors including drug, alcohol, violence and abuse rates, police engagement rates, community funding and education rates on outcomes for youth in the town of Bourke.

Assumptions:

75% of youth are alienated

75% of alienated youth participate in crime

60% of imprisoned youth return to their previous behaviours

85% of those who participate in rehabilitation achieve better outcomes.

90% of those who participate in youth community programs achieve better outcomes

Variables:

Drugs, alcohol, violence and abuse rates - the percentage of youths who have been impacted by these factors. Adjusting this variable shows the impact on how many youths re-offend, and how many seek assistance to participate in community programs.

Police engagement rates - the percentage of instances in which police engage with youths. Adjusting this variable affects the number of youths participating in crimes who go on to be convicted and imprisoned - then leading to rehabilitation.

Community funding - the amount of funding dedicated to community initiatives. Adjusting this variable impacts the efficacy of community and rehabilitation programs.

Education participation rates - the percentage of youths participating in education. Adjusting this variable impacts the success rate of youths in achieving positive outcomes.

Re-offending rates - this is the rate at which offenders re-offend on release from prison. This is left at a steady rate of 60% of offenders to demonstrate the cyclical nature of offending.

Conclusion:

The simulation clearly shows that when rates of police engagement, community funding and education participation are high, the amount of youth achieving positive outcomes increases over time and the need for rehabilitation and juvenile community programs diminishes. Within 3.5 years, more youth are experiencing positive outcomes.

When community funding is eliminated and police engagement and education participation rates are reduced - there is a clear impact on the amount of alienated youth remaining high, demonstrating the importance of these factors.

Assignment 4 - Youth outcomes in Bourke

Kathryn Greensill

Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

Clone of Youth Crime In Bourke NSW

Bryce Hercok

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.

Clone of Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625

Sarah Herring

This model displays the effects of youth crime and the influence of community expenditure, social support, and policing in the town of Bourke, NSW.

The traditional lifestyle for youth in this town involves either a chosen path of committing crimes, or, that of community activity and various forms of education.

The model has been designed to mimic a system where community expenditure and support services are adopted in order to inject a positive lifestyle for the youth population. The phenomena studied in this simulation is the balance between policing, community support and social influence versus not using them.

Assumptions
-1000 Youth Population

-Youth are either influenced by criminal activity or by productive educational activities.

- Adoption rate of community activities is influenced by personality, relating to current personal skill level of youth and willingness.

-If youth you do not become involved in community activity or some form of Education, then they turn to the path of crime.

-Punishment facility time is up to 12 months with a 2 year probation period

-Community expenditure and support only begins in the probation period, unless “Juvenile Support” slider is used.

-For the purpose of this study on youth crime and support before a crime is committed, we do not include a possibility of relapse in the rehabilitation phase.

STOCKS

Youth
Crime – all offences committed by those under 18
Punishment Facility – juvenile detention
Probation – release from punishment
Education system – various programs

VARIABLES

Policing Units – Policing Bourke's criminal activity, and convicting after a crime has been committed.

Juvenile Support Units – The variable change in crime IF the community funds Support Units for youth before a crime is committed.

Social Support Units – The number of social support units available for released offenders during rehabilitation phase.

Community expenditure – the amount of time and money being spent on social services and policing.

Birth rate, crime rate, dicharge rate, recidivism & conviction rate

INTERESTING RESULTS

Slide any of the 3 variables to the extreme.

This model shows that adoption rate of a positive lifestyle is directly influenced by social influences.

1/ Juvenile Support Unit impact

Press Simulate.

Slide Juvenile Support Units to the extreme. Simulate again.

Juxtaposition of Juvenile Support impact on Behavior Graph shows that Crime and Reoffend rates drop significantly. More people turn to law-abiding positive activity.

This will again all change with the manipulation of the Social Support unit slider…..

2/ Social Support Unit impact

Social Support Units only influence those released from the Punishment facility. The more social services on hand to support rehabilitation phase the less chance of committing crime for the second time, with Reoffend rates dropping significantly when the Social Support Units Slider is adjusted to the extreme.

Rehabilitation rates only increase marginally, in spite of more social support feeding into that phase.

The greatest impact is shown on Law-Abiding and Crime. How could this be? A logical conclusion is that there is a finite number of youth in the community and those who have received positive social support during a learning phase of rehabilitation, then go on to influence their friends, their family, and have a positive influence on those around them.

3/ Police Unit Impact

Slide Policing Units to the extremes. Simulate. Policing Units Graph shows there is a significant decrease in Reoffend rates, and a higher rate of Conviction.

Curiously, rehabilitation rates drop and crime rates go up. How could this happen? A logical conclusion is that conviction and punishment is not a crime deterrent. It needs the added influence of social support services for there to be a positive impact on decreasing criminal instincts and activity on the whole.

Conclusions

Social support and home visits need to happen in the flow between Youth Population and Crime - “Juvenile Support Units”.

Investment in youth via these juvenile social support officers before they commit an offence, limits the amount of criminal activity over time. So, crime effectively decreases with the direct influence of social services at a young age.

Equally, with more police presence in the community, for those tempted to re-offend, they have a deterrent.

The most efficient management of the community issues faced in Bourke however lies with a combination of both Policing and Social Support services at all levels within the community.

Clone of Impact of Social Services and Police on Youth Crime

Harikrishna Elaprolu

Assignment

This assignment illustrates the effects of police fundings and community expenditure on the society.

And how we can improve the Town (Bourke).

Stocks

Population- Population of Bourke (3000)

Adults- 60% of the population in Bourke are Adults

Youth- 40% of the population in Bourke are young

Crime- Crimes committed by the young and adults under any bad influence or mischief.

Caught- Caught by police after or during the crime is committed

Community Group- Groups formed by the people to provide better lifestyles and a better environment.

Positive Lifestyles- People who adopt the better lifestyle and be a better person.

Variables

Community Expenses- The amount spent on the community to attract more people and make better lives.

Police Fundings- The amount spent on/for the police to make the streets more safer.

Assumptions

1. 3000 is the considered population for the model.

2. The values which are affecting the model are Community expenses and Police fundings.

3. 60% of the population is Adults

4. 40% of the population is Youth

5. 500 people are already doing crime

6. 365 people are already in jail.

7. 200 people are already involved in community groups and have positive lifestyle

8. There will be some people who will join community groups but will quit and get attracted towards bad influence.

9. There will some people who will have attracted towards bad influence and mischief but will not do any kind of crime and go home.

10. There will some people who will be caught but not be charged or they are not eligible for going to jail.

How Model Works

--Population is divided in two Young and adults; Young/Adults are either attracted towards Bad influence or mischief or engaged with the community group.

--If they are engaged in any community group they will either have a good lifestyle and better behaviour, and then go back to population or they will disengaged, and quits, and get attracted towards Bad influence or mischief.

--When the people are attracted towards bad influence or mischief they will either commit a crime or go back to population, when they commit any crime they will be caught by the police.

--Then they are either charge and sent to jail, or they are sent back to population.

--When criminals are sent to jail they have to stay there for about 10 months and then released and sent to the population.

All in all, if we have to improve Bourke we have to use the best combination of the variables (How much to invest and where to invest) so that we can have the best results and better people in the town.

Assignment_3_MGMT220_[44178751]

Laksh Taneja

Model Explanation:

This system dynamics model visualises the impact on investment into policing and community engagement resources on the crime rates within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.
The model also adds in the variable of funding for safe houses. With a high rate of domestic violence, unfavorable home conditions and other socio-economic factors, many youth roam the streets with no safe place to go, which may lead to negative behaviour patterns.

Assumptions

Youth Population: 700
Total youth population in 2016 for Bourke LGA was 646 (ages 10-29). (Census, 2016) Figures rounded to 700 for purposes of this model simulation.

Constants:
70% registration and engagement rates for Community funded programs
30% attendance rate for Safe Houses
50% crime conviction rate

Variables

Positive and Negative Influences

The model shows a number of key variables that lead youth to become more vunerable to commit a crime (such as alienation, coming from households with domestic violence, boredom and socio-economic disadvantages such as low income), as well as the variables that enhance the youth's likelihood to be a contributing member of the community (developing trusted relationships and connections with others, and having a sense of self worth, purpose and pride in the community). These factors (positive and negative) are aggregated to a single rate of 50% each for the purposes of the simulation, however each individual situation would be unique.

Police Funding / Resources

Police funding and resources means the number of active police officers attending to criminal activities, as well as prevention tactics and education programs to reduce negative behaviour. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease policing levels to view the impact on conviction rates. Current policing levels are approx 40 police to a population of under 3000 in Bourke.

Crime Rate

Youth crime rates in Australia were 3.33% (2016). Acknowledging Bourke crime rates are much higher than average, a crime rate of 40% is set initially for this model, but can be varied using the sliders.

Community Program Funding / Resources

Community Program Funding and Resources means money, facilities and people to develop and support the running of programs such as enhancing employability through mentorship and training, recreational sports and clubs, and volunteering opportunities to give back to the community. As engagement levels in the community programs increase, the levels of crime decrease. The slider can be moved to increase or decrease funding levels to view the impact on youth registrations into the community programs.

Observations

Ideally the simulations should show that an increase in police funding reduces crime rates over time, allowing for more youth committing crimes to be convicted and subsequently rehabilitated, therefore decreasing the overall levels of youth at risk.

A portion of those youth still at risk will move to the youth not at risk category through increased funding of safe houses (allowing a space for them to get out of the negative behaviour loop and away), whom them may consider registering into the community engagement programs. An increase in funding in community engagement programs will see more youth become more constructive members of the community, and that may in turn encourage youth at risk to seek out these programs as well by way of social and sub-cultural influences.

Clone of Justice & Community Support Investment and the Impacts on Bourke Youth Population

Hamza Razi

Bourke Youth Crime Model

This simple model is designed to simulate crime amongst youth in the country town of Bourke, Australia.

Bourke has a youth population (under 24 years of age) of 998 (ABS, 2015). These 998 persons begin arbitrarily split between the general population [Bourke Youth], youth in the football club [Football Club], youth engaged in criminal activity [Criminals] and incarcerated youth [Prisoners]

The rates of transfer between these blocks are determined by several logical mechanisms which are explained below. All calculations are rounded for the obvious reason that populations are necessarily integer values. To facilitate investigation into the interaction between variables, only Police and Funding are adjustable. Any other inputs would unnecessarily complicate the model, and degrade its usability and usefulness.

Observations:

Police and Funding have an interaction that determines the outcome for criminals in the simulation. At a funding multiplier of 1 (standard) and with minimum police, Criminals outnumber youths by the end of the simulation. As the funding is decreased, this threshold increases until a funding multiplier of 0.2, where even the maximum number of police cannot control the criminal population.

Perhaps most interestingly, the equilibrium prisoner population depends on the sports club funding multiplier, not the number of police.

An interesting comparison can be found between setting the funding multiplier to 1.5 and police to 100, and setting funding to 0.3 with police at 225. This comparison is an ideal use for this model, as it reflects the benefits from community engagement seen in the case study.

Rates:

Commit Crime: The crime rate in Bourke is modelled to be dependent on several factors, principally the number of police in Bourke (a greater police presence will reduce crime). It is also assumed that a greater general youth population will increase the rate of crime, and that participation in the football club (or interaction with other engaged community members) will discourage crime. For these reasons, the rate of criminalisation is modelled with the equation:

Round([Bourke Youth]^2/([Football Club]*[Police]+1))

Arrested: The arrest rate is determined by a factor of the number of police available to charge and arrest suspects, as well as the number of criminals eligible for arrest. A natural logarithm is taken for police, as police departments should see diminishing returns in adding more officers. A logarithm is also taken of criminals to allow it to factor into the rate without swamping the effect of police. Thus, the rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Police]+1)*5*log([Criminals]+1))

Released: The release rate is a straightforward calculation; it is set to increase with the square of the number of prisoners to keep the maximum number of inmates low. This is because Bourke is a small town with a small gaol and it would have to prematurely release inmates as the inmate population overflowed. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(0.001*[Prisoners]^2)

Recruited: The Football recruitment rate is assumed to be dependent on the population available for recruitment, and the funding received for the football club. A better funded club would recruit youths in greater numbers. Consequently, the recruitment rate is calculated with:

Round(ln([Bourke Youth]+1)*[Funding Modifier]+1)

Dropout Rate: The dropout rate from the football club is assumed to be dependent on the number of players (a proportion should quit every season) and the funding of the club (a well funded club should retain more players. Thus it is calculated with:

Round(1+ln([Football Club]*10/([Funding Modifier]+5)))

Self Adjust: A small leak flow to represent those criminals that cease their criminal activity and return to the general population.

Enjoy!

- Sam

Clone of 44910304 - Crime in Bourke

JAMES SAVAGE

Introduction

Bourke is a small town, located in New South Wales. The absence of a large number of entertainment negatively affects on a level of crime in town.

The model offers two options to increase the number of policemen to reduce the number of unresolved crimes, or to direct funds for the prevention of social problems and spend budget money on the development of sports clubs and educational programs(such as trading workshops).

Assumptions:

Bourke has a population of 3000 people, some of them commit crimes. Green are those variables that belong to the younger generation, respectively, orange marked variables that refer to the adult.

Since adults commit more serious crimes, violent character, then the variable refers to them (as well as a variable Jail). However, it is worth noting that such crimes are committed less often than minor crimes, so for the former to be added coefficient 0.05.

Variables:

Police presence: shows the amount of police in town

Engagement: the amount pf people, living in Bourke, who are engaged to take part in engagement activities.

Successful traders: The amount of traders, that are well known and successfully finished the course.

Number of successful athletes: The amount of successful athletes, who can serve as an example for young people to play sports.

(These two variables have not so significant effect on a correlation( such as first 2 variables), that is why, the are filled in a different colour(purple)).

Interesting Outcomes

The first simulation shows the correlation between

Despite of a large number of police officers (100), the number of domestic violence will still exceed the number of convicts. It could be said that not only police can not catch all the criminals, but also that not all victims submit an application to the police. For example, the do not want to disclose that.

The relationship between the involvement programs and the residents of Peter is much more ergonomic than the dependency between the number of policemen and the police's disclosure.

Therefore, it can be concluded that investing in engagement programs will do more good in a long-run than investing in prevention reforms.

Bourke Justice Reinvestment, Assignment 3, 44042590

Damir Malikov

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Laksh Taneja

Youth community of Bourke

Youth Crime rate in Bourke

An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.

Model Explanation

This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.

In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.

Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.

The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.

Clone of MGMT220 Bourke Youth Community (Andrew Sohn 43661769)

Zaiceva Ekaterina

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

About/Background:

This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe.

Initial Values:

Home - 1000

Juvenile Detention - 0

Sporting Clubs - 0

Trade Skills - 0

Petty Crime - 0

Interpersonal Relationships - 0

Variables:

Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs

Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others

Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke

Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated

Assumptions:

- The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000)

- When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed

- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills

- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime

- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated.

Interesting Results:

1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths

2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs

3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills.

Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104

Visagan Kajendran

Clone of Reoffending Scheme

Zane

About the Model

This model is designed to simulate the youth population in Bourke, specifically focusing on the number of criminals and incarcerated dependent on a few key variables.

Within the model, a young person living in Bourke can be classified as being in any of five states:

Young Community Member: The portion of the youth population that is not committing crime and will not commit crime in the future. Essentially the well behaved youths. A percentage of these youths will become alienated and at risk.

Alienated and At Risk Youths: The youths of Bourke that are on the path of becoming criminals, this could be caused by disruptive home lives, alcohol and drug problems, and peer pressure, among other things.

Criminal: The youths of Bourke who are committing crimes. Of these criminals a percentage will be caught and convicted and become imprisoned, while the remainder will either go back to being at risk and commit more crimes, or change their behaviour and go back to being a behaving community member.

Imprisoned: The youths of Bourke who are currently serving time in a juvenile detention centre. Half of the imprisoned are released every period at a delay of 6 months.

Released: Those youths that have been released from a detention centre. All released youths either rehabilitate and go back to being a community member or are likely to re-offend and become an alienated and at risk youth.

The variables used in the model are:

Police- This determines the police expenditure in Bourke, which relates to the number of police officers, the investment in surveillance methods and investment in criminal investigations. The level of expenditure effects how many youths are becoming criminals and how many are being caught. An increase in police expenditure causes an increase in imprisoned youths and a decrease in criminals.

Community Engagement Programs- The level of investment in community engagement programs that are targeted to keep youths in Bourke from becoming criminals. The programs include sporting facilities and clubs, educational seminars, mentoring programs and driving lessons. Increasing the expenditure in community engagement programs causes more young community members and less criminals and at risk youths.

Community Service Programs- The level of investment in community service programs that are provided for youths released from juvenile detention to help them rehabilitate and reintegrate back into the community. An increase in community service expenditure leads to more released prisoners going back into the community, rather than continuing to be at risk. Since community service programs are giving back to the community, the model also shows that an increase in expenditure causes a decrease in the amount of at risk youths.

All three of these variables are adjustable. The number of variables has been kept at three in order to ensure the simulation runs smoothly at all times without complicated outputs, limitations have also been set on how the variables can be adjusted as the simulation does not act the same out of these boundaries.

Key Assumptions:

The model does not account for the youths’ memory or learning.

There is no differentiation in the type of criminals and the sentences they serve. Realistically, not all crimes would justify juvenile detention and some crimes would actually have a longer than six-month sentence.

The constants within in the calculations of the model have been chosen arbitrarily and should be adjusted based on actual Bourke population data if this model were to be a realistic representation of Bourke’s population.

The model assumes that there are no other factors affecting youth crime and imprisonment in Bourke.

There are 1500 youths in Bourke. At the beginning of the simulation:

Young Community Member = 700

Alienated and At Risk Youth = 300

Criminal = 300

Imprisoned = 200

Noteworthy observations:

Raising Police expenditure has a very minimal effect on the number of at risk youths. This can be clearly seen by raising Police expenditure to the maximum of twenty and leaving the other two variables at a minimum. The number of Alienated and at Risk Youths is significantly higher than the other states.

Leaving Police expenditure at the minimum of one and increasing community development programs and community service programs to their maximum values shows that, in this model, crime can be decreased to nearly zero through community initiatives alone.

Leaving all the variables at the minimum position results in a relatively large amount of crime, a very low amount of imprisoned youth, and a very large proportion of the population alienated and at risk.

An ideal and more realistic simulation can be found by using the settings: Police = 12, Community Engagement Programs = 14, Community Service Programs = 10. This results in a large proportion of the population being young community members and relatively low amounts of criminals and imprisoned.

Clone of Bourke Justice Reinvestment - Nicholas Hayward 44553625

Abdul Faheem Mohed

The complex systems model ‘Engagement vs Police Expenditure for Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW’ evaluates the effectiveness of allocating government funding to either community engagement activities or law enforcement. In this model, it is possible for the user to designate resources from a scale of 20-100 and to also modify the crime rate for both adults and youth. Below, there are detailed notes that describe the reasoning and assumptions that justify the logic applied to this model. Similar notes can be found when stocks, flows and variables is clicked under the field ‘notes’.

Portions

Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.

Crime Rate

Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.

Avoiding Gaol

Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.

Conviction

It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.

Released

It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.

Engagement

Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.

Boredom

Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.

Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396

Mark Robinson

MODEL EXPLANATION:

The Model shows the interaction between the towns youth, Juvenile detention and the youth center. With 250 youth in town and none in either juvenile detention or the youth center

Youth who enroll in the community center will become educated resulting in a reduction of offences due to the reduced alienation towards law enforcement and more practical thinking.

The offence rate of youths is mitigated by the youth redevelopment program to stop re-offences. And amplified by youth alienation.

Offenders who are convicted will spend a 2 year period in Juvenile Detention before they are released. The amount of convictions are related to the amount of police in the town.

Both the youth redevelopment program and the Community center are reliant on the funding for youth provided by the government.

The two sliders relate to amount of police affecting the amount of convictions and youth in Detention whereas the funding for youth affects the offence rate and enrollment rate. Both are set to increase in discrete increments.

MGMT220-Bourke Youth Crime (Choong 44626525)

Jacob Choong

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

The Model:

I have used a Systems Dynamic model which is made up of stocks, flows, and primitives.
A linear function (Straight Line Method) has been created to determine the impact of adjusted expenditure levels in policing and community development. The town of Bourke experiences extremely high youth detention levels. The cause of this detention level is said to have many contributing factors. These include, the at home environment of the youth, with many households experiencing domestic violence incidents. While other contributing factors are the lifestyle of the youths external environment, with many youth not attending school, not having their license, and being unemployed. Each of these factors only increase the youth crime rate in Bourke. In order to combat this, research into crime prevention has been implemented in Bourke. Increased expenditure on community development programs like domestic violence consultation groups, football clubs, free driving lessons and talks between elders and the youth have been implemented in the hope to reduce youth in detention.
My model demonstrates the effect of increased expenditure on community development verse increased expenditure on policing. The ultimate outcome would be to establish a balance between expenditure on policing and expenditure on community development, thus resulting with as little youth in detention as possible.

Assumptions:

Bourke total population: 3,000
Bourke total youth population: 2,000
Initial Value are as followed -
Bourke youth in community: 500
Bourke youth involved in crime: 250
Bourke youth in Juvenile detention: 250

Assignment 3 44650701

Alice Paisley-Carruthers

Youth Crime in Bourke

Bourke in NSW has an overall population of approximately 3000 people, and has an issue with crime - possibly due to the lack of activities available for young people to partake in.

This model shows how difference variables affect crime among youths in the town over a period of 48 months.

Assumptions

For the sake of this model, the number of youths is half of the total population (1500).

There is a maximum of 50 police available at anyone one time.

All youths in detention will eventually all be released back into the community.

Variables

The variables used to observe a difference in crime include the amount of Police working at any given time (can be adjusted between 10 and 50 police).

Community Funding is the other main variable in this model, as this is what the town would do to increase the amount of activities/resources available for youths to spend their time. This can be adjusted between 1 and 100 percent.

Crime Rate is a variable that is used in conjunction with the Police variable in order to help determine crimes committed by youths.

Rate Of Conviction is also used in conjunction with Police in order to help determine how many youths who have committed a crime will be convicted.

Observations

This model shows that over time, crime can be greatly reduced with more Police and more Community Funding. With the more of each being utilised have a proportional impact on the time it takes to do so. It seems eventually, those youths who have committed crimes will all end up being rehabilitated and eventually partaking in non-criminal activities.

- Bryce

44601700 Youth Crime In Bourke NSW

Bryce Hercok

Background

The town of Bourke is in north-west New South Wales and became the first pilot site to implement an Aboriginal-let model of justice reinvestment in 2013, known as the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project. The project aimed to demonstrate that sustainable outcomes can be achieved by redirecting funding to the underlying causes of youth crime.

Model explanation

This complex systems model depicts the relationships between different players and helps simulate youth crime patterns when influenced by funded community engagement activities, fluctuating levels of alienation, and police funding over a period of 2 years. The funding of community engagement activities aims to increase youth participation and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.

Assumptions

75% of Bourke’s youth are disengaged from society.

25% of Bourke’s youth are engaged with society.

50% of Bourke’s engaged youth are not interested in the community activities.

60% of disengaged youth are alienated.

Police expenditure: 30

Community engagement expenditure: 60

Stocks

Youth of Bourke
Total youth population in Bourke. We are assuming there are 500 youths susceptible to committing crime within Bourke.

Community activities
Community programs aimed at youths which could include sports, arts and cultural programs, counselling, support groups, learner driving school, school holiday programs and health and development checks.

Disengaged Youth
Youths who are not engaged in positive community activities and are at risk of committing criminal activities. These youths may be affected by domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol or abuse.

Engaged Youth
Youths who are engaged in society in a positive way. The aim of this program is to have all youths positively engaged in Bourke’s community.

Crime
Youths who have committed a criminal offence.

Prison/detention
Youths who are found guilty of a criminal offence and are now in prison or detention.

Rehabilitation
Youths who have left prison/detention and are now attending rehabilitation programs. This rehabilitation should decrease the likelihood of youths re-offending.

Variables

Police expenditure
Funding for police presence to decrease the number of youths participating in criminal activities and whether they are convicted and imprisoned. If youths are imprisoned, police expenditure can also help move them towards rehabilitation to lessen the chance of re-offence.

Community engagement expenditure
Funding of community activities aimed at the youth of Bourke. These activities are designed to positively impact the lives of youth and lessen the chance of alienation and disengagement from the community.

Alienation
Contributing factors to alienation of youths in Bourke include domestic and family violence, drugs, alcohol, abuse, homelessness, and lack of education.

School/VET attendance
The rate at which Bourke’s youth attend school or vocational education and training courses (VET) to further their education and increase their engagement in the community.

Conclusions

This complex model indicates the impact of only a few variables, yet there are many more that can be considered. However, this model shows that over a period of 2 years, the combination of community engagement funding, police funding and education can improve the lives of Bourke’s susceptible youth. The most significant impact is made by the community engagement funding. If this funding is decreased, the rate of engaged youth decreases, and the rate of disengaged youth does not improve.

MKT563 Ass 4 - Complex systems - Justice Reinvestment Project in the town of Bourke

Renee Dickens

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).
Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:

It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Tuan Dat Huynh

Crime Models