We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.
We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing education problems related to trying to increase workshop engagement.    Inherent in the diagram is a representation of two well-known system dynamics archetypes:        Shifting the Burden , represented in the interplay between th
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing education problems related to trying to increase workshop engagement.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of two well-known system dynamics archetypes:

  • Shifting the Burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops, and
  • Limits to Success, represented in the interplay between the B1 and R5 loops.
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to transitioning and stabilization of MVS.    Inherent in the diagram is a representation of a well-known system dynamics archetype:  shifting the burden , represented in the interplay between the B1, B2,
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to transitioning and stabilization of MVS.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of a well-known system dynamics archetype: shifting the burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops.
The systemic
problem is to understand what influence the gold price? Many articles say
that the gold price is manipulated and some analysts predict that the bubble
will burst. (1) 

 We think that
understanding how gold can be influenced by different factors is an interesting
research topic. The var
The systemic problem is to understand what influence the gold price?

Many articles say that the gold price is manipulated and some analysts predict that the bubble will burst. (1)

We think that understanding how gold can be influenced by different factors is an interesting research topic. The variation of the gold price is a real-world problem which evaluates through the interaction of a group of different elements.

It seems that the gold price is a very complex problem understanding. Of course everybody has his own thinking about the problem according to his own filter.

But this approach is most of the time not valuable because there is not a full view of all the variables and their link. In a context of a growing demand and a constant supply, be able to determine if gold price will continue to increase and if this asset will represent a safe investment for the new decade.

In September 2011, gold price surged a record, $1,274,75 an ounce. According to the Commodities guru George Soros “gold was the ultimate bubble" and was no longer a safe investment.

On the other hand, the research conducts by metal consultant GFMS predicted that gold will hit a new record of $1,300 an ounce. (2)

Who was right? Both of them. 

This example illustrates how complex is the problem.

At the time of this research the price of gold is $1,316,79 an ounce.

Wealthy persons are concerned by preserving their fortune, they also look to maximise their wealth and to keep it safe. Many options are available to investors, despite buillion is a popular asset on a long-term portfolio, nowadays is it gold a safe investment? That is a good question. Also understanding the impact of gold on the economy and how it is link to poverty might be interesting. To analyze an issue, one must first define it.

In order to get a better understanding of the gold price we will model this complex problem. Our goal is to visualize the interconnection of elements and be able to identify feedback loops with the aim to understand the complexity of the problem.

We will analyse different documents from various sources, underline variables and identify their relationships over time.

 

Controle de uma fazenda de leite, onde o número de vacas e a quantidade de leite produzido e o custo da produção interfere no lucro.
Controle de uma fazenda de leite, onde o número de vacas e a quantidade de leite produzido e o custo da produção interfere no lucro.
In this model, we look at "human resource" supply chains and how quickly and unpredictably an organization can enter long periods of being either overstaffed or understaffed.
In this model, we look at "human resource" supply chains and how quickly and unpredictably an organization can enter long periods of being either overstaffed or understaffed.
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's  Book  Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
WIP Summary of MIchael Hudson's Book Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt destroy the Global Economy 
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5. The equation for DeltaN is a version of  Nj+1 = Nj  + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj  the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu
The simulation integrates or sums (INTEG) the Nj population, with a change of Delta N in each generation, starting with an initial value of 5.
The equation for DeltaN is a version of 
Nj+1 = Nj  + mu (1- Nj / Nmax ) Nj
the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3.
 
Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.

Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka