The home loan for Croydon Appartment
The home loan for Croydon Appartment
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka
In this model, we look at "human resource" supply chains and how quickly and unpredictably an organization can enter long periods of being either overstaffed or understaffed.
In this model, we look at "human resource" supply chains and how quickly and unpredictably an organization can enter long periods of being either overstaffed or understaffed.
The systemic
problem is to understand what influence the gold price? Many articles say
that the gold price is manipulated and some analysts predict that the bubble
will burst. (1) 

 We think that
understanding how gold can be influenced by different factors is an interesting
research topic. The var
The systemic problem is to understand what influence the gold price?

Many articles say that the gold price is manipulated and some analysts predict that the bubble will burst. (1)

We think that understanding how gold can be influenced by different factors is an interesting research topic. The variation of the gold price is a real-world problem which evaluates through the interaction of a group of different elements.

It seems that the gold price is a very complex problem understanding. Of course everybody has his own thinking about the problem according to his own filter.

But this approach is most of the time not valuable because there is not a full view of all the variables and their link. In a context of a growing demand and a constant supply, be able to determine if gold price will continue to increase and if this asset will represent a safe investment for the new decade.

In September 2011, gold price surged a record, $1,274,75 an ounce. According to the Commodities guru George Soros “gold was the ultimate bubble" and was no longer a safe investment.

On the other hand, the research conducts by metal consultant GFMS predicted that gold will hit a new record of $1,300 an ounce. (2)

Who was right? Both of them. 

This example illustrates how complex is the problem.

At the time of this research the price of gold is $1,316,79 an ounce.

Wealthy persons are concerned by preserving their fortune, they also look to maximise their wealth and to keep it safe. Many options are available to investors, despite buillion is a popular asset on a long-term portfolio, nowadays is it gold a safe investment? That is a good question. Also understanding the impact of gold on the economy and how it is link to poverty might be interesting. To analyze an issue, one must first define it.

In order to get a better understanding of the gold price we will model this complex problem. Our goal is to visualize the interconnection of elements and be able to identify feedback loops with the aim to understand the complexity of the problem.

We will analyse different documents from various sources, underline variables and identify their relationships over time.

 

Modelagem Soft sobre o Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil. Atividade proposta em Teoria Geral dos Sistemas, ministrada pelo Prof. Antonio Carlos Zambon.    Integrantes:  - Edson da Costa Vitor Junior, 170086  - Gustavo Batistic Ribeiro, 174028  - Huanna Raquel do Nascimento, 174720  - Karen
Modelagem Soft sobre o Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil. Atividade proposta em Teoria Geral dos Sistemas, ministrada pelo Prof. Antonio Carlos Zambon.

Integrantes:
- Edson da Costa Vitor Junior, 170086
- Gustavo Batistic Ribeiro, 174028
- Huanna Raquel do Nascimento, 174720
- Karen E. M. Rodrigues, 177493
- Leticia O. C. Tavares, 182047
- Matheus Baroni, 184378
Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.
Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.
  Format: Given  pre-conditions  when  independent variables(s)  then  dependent variable         Given  Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12))  when  one of these independent variables change  then  how   sensitive   is
Format: Given pre-conditions when independent variables(s) then dependent variable

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables change then how sensitive is Investment (22) over a 30 year time period (-1,000)

H1: if you Earn more then Investment will last much longer => rejected

H2: if you Spend less then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H3: if your Initial Investment is higher then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H4: if you reduce your Spend when Investments are declining then Investment will last much longer => accepted

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables are optimised then Investment will last exactly 30 years by minimising the absolute investment gap

H1: if you set an appropriate Spending Base then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

H2: if you set an appropriate Spending Reduction then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

Source for investment returns: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3896226-90-year-history-of-capital-market-returns-and-risks
3 2 months ago
Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified.
Very basic stock-flow diagram of simple interest with table and graph output in interest, bank account and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal, and initial balance bank account can all be modified.
Demonstrate that the same diagram is appropriate whether the interest rate is positive or negative.   Video   @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
Demonstrate that the same diagram is appropriate whether the interest rate is positive or negative.
This is a more complex diagram of Jamie's personal finance which includes her withholdings from each paycheck.
This is a more complex diagram of Jamie's personal finance which includes her withholdings from each paycheck.
WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019  youtube video
WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019 youtube video
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to transitioning and stabilization of MVS.    Inherent in the diagram is a representation of a well-known system dynamics archetype:  shifting the burden , represented in the interplay between the B1, B2,
A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to transitioning and stabilization of MVS.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of a well-known system dynamics archetype: shifting the burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops.
A model of some of the most important KPIs in a startup's business model.
A model of some of the most important KPIs in a startup's business model.
4 5 months ago
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

 ​Dieses Modell soll aufzeigen, wie sich ein neues Produkt auf das Kundenverhalten auswirkt. Vorteil von Paketen für z.B. eine Bank ist es, dass die Kunden egal welche Produkte sie haben, immer gleich viel bezahlen und somit die Kosten einfacher Berechnet werden können.  Im Weiteren ist die Administ

​Dieses Modell soll aufzeigen, wie sich ein neues Produkt auf das Kundenverhalten auswirkt. Vorteil von Paketen für z.B. eine Bank ist es, dass die Kunden egal welche Produkte sie haben, immer gleich viel bezahlen und somit die Kosten einfacher Berechnet werden können.

Im Weiteren ist die Administration von einem standarisierten Paket einfacher und günstiger, als die Administration der einzelnen Produkte.

Im Modell kann berechnet werden, wie sich die Attraktivität des Paketes gegenüber den Einzelprodukten (in diesem einfachen Modell nur über den Preis definiert) auf das Wechselverhalten der Kunden auswirkt.

How do we create a market where small self generated electricity is cost effetive.
How do we create a market where small self generated electricity is cost effetive.