A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
156 4 months ago
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity and isolation policies.

 SARS-CoV-19 spread  in different countries - please  adjust variables accordingly        Italy     elderly population (>65): 0.228  estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11  starting population size: 60 000 000  high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)  heart disease: 0.04 (statista)  free intensive
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

13 5 months ago
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease as a stock and flow model. @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease as a stock and flow model.
5 9 months ago
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work. Factors are based on daily choices.
This systems model will help students understand the different systems that make up our body and how choices we make can impact how those systems work.
Factors are based on daily choices.
 A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).  @ LinkedIn ,  Twitter ,  YouTube

A spatially aware, agent based model of disease spread. There are three classes of people: susceptible (healthy), infected (sick and infectious), and recovered (healthy and temporarily immune).

@LinkedInTwitterYouTube

26 9 months ago
This model simulates a waterborne illness spread from a central reservoir. It illustrates the combination of System Dynamics (modeling pathogen levels in the reservoir) and Agent Based Modeling.    Make sure to check out the Map display to see the geographic clustering of disease incidence around th
This model simulates a waterborne illness spread from a central reservoir. It illustrates the combination of System Dynamics (modeling pathogen levels in the reservoir) and Agent Based Modeling.

Make sure to check out the Map display to see the geographic clustering of disease incidence around the reservoir.
 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model

 SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman   A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity


Data from two rounds of using Disease Participatory Simulation in class. Participants + Androids = 39.  By adjusting Rate Constant, stocks and flows representation can be used to match data from either Trial 1 or Trial 2. An example of matching Trial 1 is shown when this simulation is run.  Graph of
Data from two rounds of using Disease Participatory Simulation in class. Participants + Androids = 39.  By adjusting Rate Constant, stocks and flows representation can be used to match data from either Trial 1 or Trial 2. An example of matching Trial 1 is shown when this simulation is run.  Graph of "Area" (Well * Sick) has the same shape as Rate Catching graph. The Rate Catching graph is much smaller because the Well * Sick values are multiplied by a small constant that is the Rate Constant.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
 SIR model with herd immunity - Metrics by Guy Laekman   A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

SIR model with herd immunity - Metrics by Guy Laekman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

 A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model for Rage

 The dual pathogen model from "Competition-colonization dynamics in an RNA virus" Ojosnegros et al 2010

The dual pathogen model from "Competition-colonization dynamics in an RNA virus" Ojosnegros et al 2010

 SIR Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman     A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.
SIR Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A simple Susceptible - Infected - Recovered disease model.