Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus 

377 6 months ago
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

21 11 months ago
This basic pandemic model explores the dynamics and healthcare burden associated with of a novel infection.
This basic pandemic model explores the dynamics and healthcare burden associated with of a novel infection.
 Modelo epidemiológico simples   SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados         Clique aqui  para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.          Dados iniciais de  infec
Modelo epidemiológico simples
SIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados

Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.


Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a   free cash flow   (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but th
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  
 SARS-CoV-19 spread  in different countries - please  adjust variables accordingly        Italy     elderly population (>65): 0.228  estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11  starting population size: 60 000 000  high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)  heart disease: 0.04 (statista)  free intensive
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries
- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover       Assumptions   Govt policy reduces infection and
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover

Assumptions
Govt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.

Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.

A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights

Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




35 7 months ago
The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.
The SEIRS(D) model for the purpose of experimenting with the phenomena of viral spread. I use it for COVID-19 simulation.
 Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.      With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.     We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
 If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually
become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic
growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most
governments is to impose  restrictive
measures when the virus threatens to ov

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

 This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents.    Assumptions:   Government policies will be

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;


Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;


Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;


Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

16 7 months ago
 This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).       Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens
This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).  

Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens at different values of the Reproduction Number (R0).

The second model that includes a simple test and isolate policy can be found here.
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.    It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10.      Government interventi
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.

It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10. 

Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.
On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.
Initial data from: Italian data [ link ], as of Mar 28  Incubation estimation [ link ]      Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.
Initial data from:
Italian data [link], as of Mar 28
Incubation estimation [link

Model focuses on outbreak dynamics and control, this version ignores symptom onset to hospital admission and the rest of recovery dynamics.
 Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.
Modelling the demand for health and care resources resulting from the Covid-19 outbreak using an SEIR model.

8 3 weeks ago
 Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania   SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts           Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected
Simple epidemiological model for Burnie, Tasmania
SIR: Susceptible to infection - Infected - Recovery, Government responses and Economic impacts  

Government policy is activated when there are 10 or fewer reported cases of COVID-19. The more people tested, the fewer people became infected. So the government's policy is to reduce infections by increasing the number of people tested and starting early. At the same time, it has slowed the economic growth (which, according to the model,  will stop for next 52 weeks).
5 7 months ago
 Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.     The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.     Healthcare resources identifie
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.

The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.

Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.

The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.
 Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern - bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an  Italien      ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228     Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,6     Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000     hoher Blutd
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,6
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
    Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 100


Deutschland

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
    geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 0,2 (deutschlandfunk)
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 5 880


Frankreich

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,4
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
    Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 000


Je nach Bedarf:

    Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
    Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
    Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
    Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4


Schlüssel

    Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
    Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
    Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
    Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
    Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
    Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung



 لطفا برای بزرگنمایی و مشاهده مدل بر روی دکمه     [Explore The Model]   کلیک کنید      شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا چه خواهند بود؟    لطفا نظرات خود را با من در میان بگذارید:  motealle@gmail.com
لطفا برای بزرگنمایی و مشاهده مدل بر روی دکمه
کلیک کنید

شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا چه خواهند بود؟
لطفا نظرات خود را با من در میان بگذارید:
motealle@gmail.com
   Explanation of the Model    This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing
Explanation of the Model
This is a Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania which shows the government actions in response to the pandemic COVID-19 and its affects on the Economy. The government health policy changes depending on the reported cases, which is a dependent upon the testing rate. 

Assumptions
Lockdown and travel ban were the main factor in government policy. It negatively impacts on the Economic growth as individuals are not going out which is directly affects the business around the world, in this insight 'Burnie'. This reduces the economic growth and the factors positively effecting economic growth such as Tourism.

Government policies has a negative impact on Exposer of individuals. Moreover, it also has a negative impact on chances of infection when exposed as well as other general infection rate.
 

Interesting Insight 
There is a significant impact of test rating on COVID-19 outbreak. Higher rates increases the government involvement, which decreases cases as well as the total death. 
In contrast, lower testing rates increase the death rate and cases. 

Tourism which plays a avital role in Tasmanian Economy greatly affects the Economic Growth. The decline of Tourism in parts of Tasmania such as Burnie, would directly decrease the economy of Tasmania.


  
6 8 months ago
 This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies.      Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy.  Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining polic
This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies. 

Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy.  Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining policy by changing the settings below.  First explore changing the start date with a policy duration of 60 days.
  Overview:
  

 The
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak,
the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP
growth in Burnie.  

  Assumptions:  

 We set some
variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, de

Overview:

The COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak, the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP growth in Burnie.

Assumptions:

We set some variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the individual health conditions and social activities.

It should be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced over time.

Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week 52)

Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum values and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered – 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.

Step 2: Increase the variables of Health Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the same as step 1, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered – 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).

So, the increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.

Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered – 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).

So, the increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.

Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14, Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate

results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered – 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).

So, the increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the GDP in Burnie.

7 months ago