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COVID-19

SARS-CoV-19 model

Lucia Vega Resto
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment

SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 6 months 1 week ago

Modelo SIR simples - Covid 19

Paulo Villela
Modelo epidemiológico simplesSIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.

Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.

Epidemiología Modelo SIR COVID-19 Coronavirus Dinamica De Sistemas

  • 5 months 1 week ago

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Environment Public Health Climate Heating COVID-19

  • 5 months 5 days ago

Why Affiliate Marketing is The Best Option for Kenyans Locked by CoronaVirus Pandemic

Proff R
Have you ever heard of earning passive income while you sleep or while you concentrate on other jobs, including full-time employment, and especially now that many Kenyans have lost their jobs due to Covid19 pandemic and are forced to work from home?

This is affiliate marketing or simply niche marketing. With your blogging and marketing skills, you can write good product reviews and guides that attract willing buyers, who purchase the products you promote on your website, by clicking the links that transfer them to the merchant site where they pay and receive the products.

What is Affiliate Marketing?

Affiliate marketing can be described simply as a business where you promote products belonging to other people via an affiliate network for a commission. It is a way of making some money by selling products through your website to the merchant website. Often, you are provided with a unique id that is found on the links you place on your site, which track the number of sells made through your website successfully to the merchant site. You end up sharing the profits made from selling the product through your website.

What are the Examples of Merchants or Affiliate Networks?

There are many merchants and affiliate networks available for you in Kenya. Of course, you can consider joining the merchant overseas, for example, Amazon, Clickbank, Share a Sale, Click Junction and many more. Personally, I joined the Amazon Associates Program, and I am planning to join other programs as well to build on my commissions. I blog about products that provide solutions to people diagnosed with Hyperhidrosis or excessive sweating on my website Always Sweating? Find a Fresh Solution Today.

There are still other locally available merchants and affiliate networks that you can explore. To find them you need to check for companies that sell different products at a large scale, sort of an online supermarket and you will find that they have an affiliate department where you can join and help promote their products for a commission in exchange. You can also check for sites that offer deals in Kenya and join their affiliate programs at a commission. Some of the examples to check include Jumia.

How can I Join Affiliate Marketing?

Affiliate marketing has been in existence for some time now, especially in Kenya. Mostly, whenever we hear of online writing or online employment opportunities, we tend to think that they only come from overseas. However, with a clear understanding how you can join affiliate marketing in Kenya, then you will know how to seize this opportunity.

First, if you own a blog or a website that attracts high traffic or if you are willing to build a blog that will attract high traffic, you can join an affiliate network and begin promoting products assigned for a commission. It is simple, just like joining Facebook or opening a new email account. Most of the times, the affiliate networks or merchant sites do not charge a thing to join. Only what you need to have is your email, personal details, information about your website, the content of your website, the traffic, and the niche or the industry that you have specialized in. At times, you can be that blogger who tackles different niches or topics on your blog. No worries, you still can join. However, it is advisable to select one niche, which will help you become a pro or a professional in that niche. An authority niche receives high ranking as Google interprets that you are an authority in this niche.

How can I get Started with Affiliate Marketing in Kenya, Yet I am a Newbie?

If you are new and intend to start affiliate marketing, then worry not. All you need is to do some research on the most favorable industry you can blog about. An industry that you have knowledge or experience writing about is advisable as this will be easy to write about forever without getting bored. Find out whether many people have written about it or are talking about it. This will help you know how competitive it is to venture into that industry. If it is not competitive, you need to buy a domain, for example, on NameCheap, which is really cheap, about Ksh1000 or USD10 per year and you can pay for hosting for example with Site Ground, which charges about $50 per year or even locally, for example with Kenya Web Experts, who have packages that start from Ksh2100 per year, and build your website with Word Press, and off you go. Start blogging now. However, before you blog, the secret to rank highly is doing what we call keyword research to find keywords that are not competitive. You can use the Google Keyword Toolkit to help you find less competitive keywords to use in your articles.

Conclusion

Overall, affiliate marketing pays well, especially now when you need money the most. If you learn a little bit of search engine optimization, which is a technique for ranking your website on search engines, then you will be better placed in making passive income. You can later turn niche marketing into your full-time carrier and live entirely on the internet, as we always put it.

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Business Ecommerce Marketing Finance Economy Technology Management COVID-19

  • 4 months 3 weeks ago

Astrology From the Devil?

Proff R
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Astrology is an ancient system of divination. But is it really from the devil? Certainly not! Astrology is the lost key to humanity. It is through this natural science that we know about thyself, the creator, and nature around us.

“Astrology is the mother of all sciences.  It is the deepest, the most profound, and the most beneficial of all sciences.” – Lyman E. Stowe

Astrology is quoted in the Bible a thousand times and has been around for over millions of years. Astrology is practically dating from the 3rd millennium BC. Many scholars believe that it has a lot of strong roots in calendars and seasons. Equally, some societies have accepted astrology both culturally and politically.

Even Jesus Christ said that signs are in the sky where there are a lot of stars, the moon, and the sun. While a few verses in the Bible perceptively speak negatively and disapprovingly about Astrology, this science is the language of God and the science of light.

Notably, the Old Testament is EGYPTIAN that deals with the creation of mankind whilst the New Testament is GREEK that deals with how man will ascend into heaven in the end times.

Christians term Astrology as the Dark Side of Life

Some Christians in the Church believe that anyone studying Astrology or believing in the stars and the celestial world is moving over to the dark side. But this is not true. Some even go to the extent of saying that Astrology is the science of the devil. This brings in the question of whether astrology has any connection with the Bible. And does astrology have any compatibility with Christianity? Does the bible condemn astrology? What do you think?

Besides, it is crucial to note that the Bible doesn’t condemn astrology, but only condemns astrologers. The Bible criticizes astrologers who blasphemize against the word of God. This is especially, people who use information available to them to deceive people into believing falsities and fortune-telling for profit.

“Don’t you realize that those who do wrong will not inherit the Kingdom of God?” – 1 Corinthians 6: 9

Moreover, the Bible goes against LAWYERS, who use the law for ill gains and selfish interests, but not the law as the Bible presents, particularly the Bible is THE LAW.

“And he said, “Woe to you lawyers also! For you load people with burdens hard to bear, and you yourselves do not touch the burdens with one of your fingers.” Luke 11:46

“No one enters suit justly; no one goes to law honestly; they rely on empty pleas, they speak lies, they conceive mischief and give birth to iniquity.” Isaiah 59:4

Moreover, the Bible ATTACKS PRIESTS for practically the same reason – those who deceive the people in the name of God.

“I will stretch out my hand against Judah and against all the inhabitants of Jerusalem; and I will cut off from this place the remnant of Baal and the name of the idolatrous priests along with the priests, those who bow down on the roofs to the host of the heavens, those who bow down and swear to the Lord and yet swear by Milcom. Zephaniah 1:4-5

“Nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God.” – 1 Corinthians 6: 9-10

On the other hand, the Bible says in the book of Psalm 1:1–3 that the heavens declared the glory of the Almighty God and the sky as well proclaimed His handiwork. Moreover, God states that days pour speeches while the night unravels knowledge to the people.

This is a classic example of Astrology that proves a hidden power of the elements and objects in the sky and how they are connected to God and knowledge. This is the right way of understanding how God speaks, particularly his words. But only someone who is deliberately shying away from reading between the lines that will declare Astrology (the study of celestial bodies in view of the existence of humankind and nature) the dark side of life. True to it, astrology is the light.

Read more: Sweaty Feet & Sweaty Hands

Astrology the Devil’s Science

From left, right, and center, we have been made to think and believe that Astrology is what witches practice, especially in the wee hours of the night. Some even go to the extent of saying that devil worshipers and occult members are followers of Astrology, who perform bizarre rituals and diabolical sacrifices at the stroke of midnight.

Many are the times when people, with little information, characterize astrology as a science of magic and wizardry—indicating that the people behind this science often wear pointed hats and creepy cloaks. It’s utterly hilarious, to say the least.

However, all these are not true. The holy book categorically states that the stars, the moon, and the sun were all set in the heavens as symbols that help determine seasons.

“Mastery of Astrology is a divine privilege.” – John H. Annis

“And the Lord God said, Let there be light.”(Genesis 1:1-14). And this is how night and day were separated. That is why we can see clearly during the day, and surprisingly, not many can see during the night, if at all these evil-bent assertions are there to be believed. God Himself said that day and night would forever be used as the symbols of life and seasons. Just like that, God put it clearly for everyone to read in the first book of the Bible. Some will say that He put all the cards out on the table without throwing in any veil of sorts. But still not many will see this, because it is like mystery.

“As the mystic key, Astrology is the primary tool of insight into the mysteries of the Bible and is a beacon of light on the shore of eternity for the soul of man.” – John H. Annis

 “The golden key of all Bible symbolism sparkles above us in the starry configurations of the sky. The mystic key to the inner secrets of Nature and Man is found in Astrology. Astrology is the true mystic key that unlocks the allegories of all the religions of the world.” – John H. Annis

Until you can see this light, you won’t understand how Astrology works and its relations with the Bible, the earth and the universe.

Read more: The Best Moisture Wicking Sheets on Amazon

The Sign of Flaming Balls of Fire in the Sky

It’s time to take everything slow now and refuse to be deceived by the evil ones when boning-up astrology.

You will have to agree that God speaks to us through fireballs in the sky. God created these fire symbols to give us clear signs of His message whenever He is speaking to us.

Amazingly, God still warns of being baffled by the symbols of heaven. He advises his faithful followers, those that many would like to believe are Christians, that they should not be dismayed by the signs of the heavens that he created for us (Jeremiah 10: 2).

In the first place, God indicates clearly that he has christened all the stars that keep floating in the deepest abyss of the sky. There is no way that God will spend time to name stars if they lacked meaning. Anything with a name, for sure, has value.

Furthermore, God knows the number of all the stars in the sky and assigns each of them names, of course, with meanings (Psalm 147:4). He expects us to understand what he is doing by this and to see value in the objects of the sky, including the dazzling stars that light up the cosmos.

Of course, science doesn’t have any record of the total number of stars hanging up in the universe, but God is conscious enough to, not only count them but also name them. This is amazing and cannot be overlooked or tagged as ordinary objects in the sky – because they boil down to Astrology.

God continues to tell the people of the earth to look up in the sky and see what’s there and acknowledge who created them. This means that the objects in the sky are of immense value. They are communicating a lot than we hardly know. God is saying that man should make an effort to identify the symbols in the sky that are forever meaningful. God continues to state in Isaiah 40: 26 that by the "greatness of his might," he knows that no star is missing in the universe.

God doesn’t emphasize a lot on the moon when citing seasons or time intervals. However, it is known that the 28-days cycle of the moon also controls the tides of the oceans, women’s menstrual cycle, and a plethora of other natural occurrences that we encounter on earth. This is surely enough to prove that God uses the striking luminaries in the sky to speak to his creation, but unfortunately, we still cannot see.

Wrapping up,

Now, if astrology is not the science of the devil, then what is it?

Astrology is a primeval yet fused science of understanding the divine world through the lens of epitomes, cycles as well as symbols. Astrology links the outer space perfectly with the earth. It can unveil our deep-seated strengths as well as weaknesses, and pin down seasons of trials and gains, particularly in our careers and daily lives. We can easily understand the scope of Covid-19 if we integrate astrology into our health care research and studies surrounding this virus and its effects on human beings.

“Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer.” —J. P. Morgan and “A physician without a knowledge of Astrology has no right to call himself a physician.” — Hippocrates

Whether we agree or not, it is clear that the Bible is not mute when it comes to astrology. It is ‘silver-tongued.’ It’s upon us to figure out everything for ourselves, for God says in Luke 21:25 that “there will be signs in the sun, the moon, and the stars.”

Author’s Bio

The author of this article is also the writer of the following:

Men’s Cooling Pajamas;

Women’s Cooling Pajamas.

Read on…

© Copyright Notice:

This article was published here with full permission from client, following a full refund.​

COVID-19 Systems Systems Dynamics Science Healthcare Biology Astrology

  • 4 months 4 days ago

Infectious Disease Model (Covid)

David Plummer
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.
The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.
Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.
The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.

Health And Social Care Infectious Disease COVID-19 SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus

  • 5 months 3 weeks ago

شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا

Hamidreza Motealle
لطفا برای بزرگنمایی و مشاهده مدل بر روی دکمه
[Explore The Model]کلیک کنید

شگفتی سازهای تاثیر گذار بر محورمقاومت در جهان پساکرونا چه خواهند بود؟
لطفا نظرات خود را با من در میان بگذارید:motealle@gmail.com

Corona COVID-19 Future

  • 2 months 3 weeks ago

Future Learn Basic SIR Model

Bob Hawkins
This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).  
Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens at different values of the Reproduction Number (R0).
The second model that includes a simple test and isolate policy can be found here.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 3 months 5 days ago

SIRD Epidemic Model with Suppression Policies

Bob Hawkins
This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies. 
Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy.  Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining policy by changing the settings below.  First explore changing the start date with a policy duration of 60 days.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 3 months 3 weeks ago

SARS-CoV-19 Modell von Lucia Vega Resto

Hans Kratz
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,6
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
    Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 100


Deutschland

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
    geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 0,2 (deutschlandfunk)
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 5 880


Frankreich

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,4
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
    Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 000


Je nach Bedarf:

    Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
    Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
    Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
    Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4


Schlüssel

    Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
    Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
    Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
    Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
    Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
    Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung



SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 3 weeks 1 day ago

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Steven D'Alessandro
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Environment Public Health Climate Heating COVID-19

  • 5 months 2 weeks ago

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Andrew E Long
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured inhttps://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
  1. http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
  2. https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

SIR Math Modeling Mat375 COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD

  • 4 months 1 week ago

Week-12-Practice

Sai Nagavelli
This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.

Corona Virus Disease Rate Death Infected COVID-19

  • 5 months 4 weeks ago

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