Your browser (Internet Explorer 8 or lower) is out of date. It has known security flaws and may not display all features of this and other websites. Learn how to update your browser.

X

Menu

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-19 model

Lucia Vega Resto
SARS-CoV-19 spread in different countries- please adjust variables accordingly

Italy
  • elderly population (>65): 0.228
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 4-11
  • starting population size: 60 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.32 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.04 (statista)
  • free intensive care units: 3 100

Germany
  • elderly population (>65): 0.195 (bpb)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 2-3 (deutschlandfunk)
  • starting population size: 83 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.26 (gbe-bund)
  • heart disease: 0.2-0.28 (herzstiftung)
  • free intensive care units: 5 880

France
  • elderly population (>65): 0.183 (statista)
  • estimated undetected cases factor: 3-5
  • starting population size: 67 000 000
  • high blood pressure: 0.3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
  • heart disease: 0.1-0.2 (oecd)
  • free intensive care units: 3 000

As you wish
  • numbers of encounters/day: 1 = quarantine, 2-3 = practicing social distancing, 4-6 = heavy social life, 7-9 = not caring at all // default 2
  • practicing preventive measures (ie. washing hands regularly, not touching your face etc.): 0.1 (nobody does anything) - 1 (very strictly) // default 0.8
  • government elucidation: 0.1 (very bad) - 1 (highly transparent and educating) // default 0.9
  • Immunity rate (due to lacking data): 0 (you can't get immune) - 1 (once you had it you'll never get it again) // default 0.4

Key
  • Healthy: People are not infected with SARS-CoV-19 but could still get it
  • Infected: People have been infected and developed the disease COVID-19
  • Recovered: People just have recovered from COVID-19 and can't get it again in this stage
  • Dead: People died because of COVID-19
  • Immune: People got immune and can't get the disease again
  • Critical recovery percentage: Chance of survival with no special medical treatment

SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 1 year 7 months ago

Modelo SIR simples - Covid 19

Paulo Villela
Modelo epidemiológico simplesSIR: Susceptíveis - Infectados - Recuperados
Clique aqui para ver um vídeo com a apresentação sobre a construção e uso deste modelo.  É recomendável ver o vídeo num computador de mesa para se poder ver os detalhes do modelo.

Dados iniciais de infectados, recuperados e óbitos para diversos países (incluindo o Brasil) podem ser obtidos aqui neste site.

Epidemiología Modelo SIR COVID-19 Coronavirus Dinamica De Sistemas

  • 1 year 6 months ago

Burnie COVID-19 outbreak demo model version 2

Steven D'Alessandro
A sample model for class discussion modeling COVID-19 outbreaks and responses from government with the effect on the local economy.  Govt policy is dependent on reported COVID-19 cases, which in turn depend on testing rates less those who recover
AssumptionsGovt policy reduces infection and economic growth in the same way.
Govt policy is trigger when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less.
A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.  This is due to economic signalling that all is not well.

Interesting insights
Higher testing rates seem to trigger more rapid government intervention, which reduces infectious cases.  The impact on the economy though of higher detected cases though is negative. 




COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 Economy

  • 5 days 11 hours ago

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Environment Public Health Climate Heating COVID-19

  • 1 year 6 months ago

Infectious Disease Model (Covid)

David Plummer
Modelling of the SARS-Cov-2 viral outbreak using an SEIR model plus specific extensions to model demand for health and care resources.
The model includes biths and deaths, and migration to accommodate import and export of infected individuals from other areas.
Healthcare resources identifies need for hospital beds and critical care.
The model is uses arrays to reflect the different impacts of modelled parameters by age and sex.

Health And Social Care Infectious Disease COVID-19 SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus

  • 1 year 6 months ago

SIRD Epidemic Model with Suppression Policies

Bob Hawkins
This is the third in a series of models that explore the dynamics of infectious diseases. This model looks at the impact of two types of suppression policies. 
Press the simulate button to run the model with no policy.  Then explore what happens when you set up a lockdown and quarantining policy by changing the settings below.  First explore changing the start date with a policy duration of 60 days.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 1 year 4 months ago

Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

Jingting REN

This Model was developed from the SEIR model (Susceptible, Enposed, Infected, Recovered). It was designed to explore relationships between the government policies regarding the COVID-19 and its impact upon the economy as well as well-being of residents. 

Assumptions:

Government policies will be triggered when reported COVID-19 case are 10 or less;


Government Policies affect the economy and the COV-19 infection negatively at the same time;


Government Policies can be divided as 4 categories, which are Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban, and Hygiene Level, and they represented strength of different aspects;

 

Parameters:

Policies like Social Distancing, Business Restrictions, Lock Down, Travel Ban all have different weights and caps, and they add up to 1 in total;

 

There are 4 cases on March 9th; 

Ro= 5.7  Ro is the reproduction number, here it means one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people;


Interesting Insights:

Economy will grow at the beginning few weeks then becoming stagnant for a very long time;

Exposed people are significant, which requires early policies intervention such as social distancing.

COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA708 SIR Model Economy After Pandemic Well-being

  • 1 week 6 days ago

Future Learn Basic SIR Model

Bob Hawkins
This is the first in a series of models that explore the dynamics of and policy impacts on infectious diseases. This basic  model divides the population into three categories -- Susceptible (S), Infectious (I) and Recovered (R).  
Press the simulate button to run the model and see what happens at different values of the Reproduction Number (R0).
The second model that includes a simple test and isolate policy can be found here.

Epidemic COVID-19 SIR

  • 1 year 4 months ago

SARS-CoV-19 Modell von Lucia Vega Resto

Hans Kratz
Ausbreitung von SARS-CoV-19 in verschiedenen Ländern
- bitte passen Sie die Variablen über die Schieberegler weiter unten entsprechend an

Italien

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,228
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,6
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 60 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,32 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,04 (statista)
    Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 100


Deutschland

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,195 (bpb)
    geschätzte unentdeckte Fälle Faktor: 0,2 (deutschlandfunk)
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 83 000 000
    hoher Blutdruck: 0,26 (gbe-bund)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,2-0,28 (Herzstiftung)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 5 880


Frankreich

    ältere Bevölkerung (>65): 0,183 (statista)
    Faktor der geschätzten unentdeckten Fälle: 0,4
    Ausgangsgröße der Bevölkerung: 67 000 000
    Bluthochdruck: 0,3 (fondation-recherche-cardio-vasculaire)
    Herzkrankheit: 0,1-0,2 (oecd)
   
Anzahl der Intensivbetten: 3 000


Je nach Bedarf:

    Anzahl der Begegnungen/Tag: 1 = Quarantäne, 2-3 = soziale Distanzierung , 4-6 = erschwertes soziales Leben, 7-9 = überhaupt keine Einschränkungen // Vorgabe 2
    Praktizierte Präventivmassnahmen (d.h. sich regelmässig die Hände waschen, das Gesicht nicht berühren usw.): 0.1 (niemand tut etwas) - 1 (sehr gründlich) // Vorgabe 0.8
    Aufklärung durch die Regierung: 0,1 (sehr schlecht) - 1 (sehr transparent und aufklärend) // Vorgabe 0,9
    Immunitätsrate (aufgrund fehlender Daten): 0 (man kann nicht immun werden) - 1 (wenn man es einmal hatte, wird man es nie wieder bekommen) // Vorgabe 0,4


Schlüssel

    Anfällige: Menschen sind nicht mit SARS-CoV-19 infiziert, könnten aber infiziert werden
    Infizierte: Menschen sind infiziert worden und haben die Krankheit COVID-19
    Geheilte: Die Menschen haben sich gerade von COVID-19 erholt und können es in diesem Stadium nicht mehr bekommen
    Tote: Menschen starben wegen COVID-19
    Immunisierte: Menschen wurden immun und können die Krankheit nicht mehr bekommen
    Kritischer Prozentsatz der Wiederherstellung: Überlebenschance ohne spezielle medizinische Behandlung



SARS-CoV-19 COVID-19 Corona Coronavirus Virus Disease Infection Pandemic

  • 1 year 1 month ago

BMA708_Assignment 3_Nguyen Dang Khoa Vo_520272_COVID-19 outbreak and Burnie economy

NGUYEN DANG KHOA VO

Description:

Model of Covid-19 outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania

This model was designed from the SIR model(susceptible, infected, recovered) to determine the effect of the covid-19 outbreak on economic outcomes via government policy.

Assumptions:

The government policy is triggered when the number of infected is more than ten.

The government policies will take a negative effect on Covid-19 outbreaks and the financial system.

Parameters:

We set some fixed and adjusted variables.

Covid-19 outbreak's parameter

Fixed parameter: Background disease.

Adjusted parameters: Infection rate, recovery rate. Immunity loss rate can be changed from vaccination rate.

Government policy's parameters

Adjusted parameters: Testing rate(from 0.15 to 0.95), vaccination rate(from 0.3 to 1), travel ban(from 0 to 0.9), social distancing(from 0.1 to 0.8), Quarantine(from 0.1 to 0.9)

Economic's parameters

Fixed parameter: Tourism

Adjusted parameter: Economic growth rate(from 0.3 to 0.5)

Interesting insight

An increased vaccination rate and testing rate will decrease the number of infected cases and have a little more negative effect on the economic system. However, the financial system still needs a long time to recover in both cases.

COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania BMA 708 Economy Health

  • 5 days 11 hours ago

SarsCov 2: Countering its Dynamic

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

If no attempt is made to eradicate SARS-CoV-2 it will eventually become endemic, ineradicable, at a high never-ending cost to world in terms of economic growth, human health and lives. The current strategy adopted by most governments is to impose  restrictive measures when the virus threatens to overwhelm hospital services and to relax these restrictions as this danger recedes. This is short-sighted. It cannot eliminate the highly infectious delta variant, which has an estimated R0-value of between 6 & 9. Periodic lockdowns will be hard to avoid in the future.

However, eradication is possible, herd immunity can be achieved quickly worldwide, reducing the R0 permanently to below 1, which will lead to the disappearance of the virus. Critical in achieving this is Ivermectin, a medicine that is cheap,  readily available and can be manufactured by most countries. A recent meta study has shown that Ivermectin, prophylactically employed, can prevent infection with the virus  by 86 % on average – very similar to the efficacy of vaccines. Eradication will require employment of all the instruments shown in the graph: future generations do not have to live with this plague. 

SARS-Cov-2 COVID-19 Strategy Vaccines Herd Immunity Eradiation

  • 2 months 2 weeks ago

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Andrew E Long
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.
We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured inhttps://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Resources:
  1. http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
  2. https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

SIR Math Modeling Mat375 COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD

  • 1 year 5 months ago

Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences

Steven D'Alessandro
Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Environment Public Health Climate Heating COVID-19

  • 1 year 6 months ago

BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie

Shakila Piyumi Perera Bethmage

INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops.  Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

 ASSUMPTIONS

 · Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

 · However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

 · Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

 ·     Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

 ·   The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling. 

 ·   Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .  

 ·  This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

 INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected. 

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly. 





BMA708 COVID-19 Burnie Tasmania COVID-19 Outbreak Government Policy Economy

  • 5 days 15 hours ago

Burnie Tasmania Covid - 19 outbreak simulation Model by Yankang Huang 541 277

Yankang Huang
Model description:This model is designed to simulate the outbreak of Covid-19 in Burnie in Tasmania, death cases, the governmental responses and Burnie local economy. 
More importantly, the impact of governmental responses to both Covid-19 infection and to local economy, the impact of death cases to local economy are illustrated. 

The model is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infected and recovered) model. 
Variables:The simulation takes into account the following variables: 
Variables related to Covid-19: (1): Infection rate. (2): Recovery rate. (3): Death rate. (4): Immunity loss rate. 
Variables related to Governmental policies: (1): Vaccination mandate. (2): Travel restriction to Burnie. (3): Economic support. (4): Gathering restriction.
Variables related to economic growth: Economic growth rate. 
Adjustable variables are listed in the part below, together with the adjusting range.
Assumptions:(1): Governmental policies are aimed to control(reduce) Covid-19 infections and affect (both reduce and increase) economic growth accordingly.
(2) Governmental policy will only be applied when reported cases are 10 or more. 
(3) The increasing cases will negatively influence Burnie economic growth.
Enlightening insights:(1) Vaccination mandate, when changing from 80% to 100%, doesn't seem to affect the number of death cases.
(2) Governmental policies are effectively control the growing death cases and limit it to 195. 

COVID-19 Pandemic Economy Health

  • 5 days 15 hours ago

Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie_Guoyu Shen

Guoyu Shen
Introduction:This model aims to show that how the Tasmania government's COVID-19 policy can address the spread of the pandemic and in what way these policies can damage the economy.
Assumption:Variables such as infection rate, death rate and the recovery rate are influenced by the actual situation.The government will implement stricter travel bans and social distant policies as there are more cases.Government policies reduce infection and limit economic growth at the same time.A greater number of COVID-19 cases has a negative effect on the economy.
Interesting insights:A higher testing rate will make the infection increase and the infection rate will slightly increase as well. Government policies are effective to lower the infection, however, they will damage the local economy. While the higher number of COVID-19 cases also influences economic activities.

COVID-19 BMA708 Burnie

  • 5 days 12 hours ago

Burnie COVID-19 outbreaks and economic impacts_Pui Chu Daisy Cheung 524767

Pui Chu Daisy Cheung
This model shows the COVID-19 outbreaks in Burnie and the Government intervention to alleviate the crisis and also how is the intervention affect the economy.
It is assumed that the Government intervention is triggered when the COVID-19 case is equal to or more than 10. 
Government intervention - lock down the state, suppress the development of COVID-19 effectively. It is related to most of people stay at home to reduce the exposure in public area.On the other hand, it also bring the economy of Burnie in the recession, as no tourists, no dining out activities and decrease in money spending in the city.

BMA708 COVID-19 Burnie Economic Impacts

  • 1 week 2 days ago

Pages